College Football buys for 2020

[RBD]

As we come to the end of the regular season, I want to say, "Thank you" to all of you who stopped by to say "hello," or "thanks," or had a question about a play I posted, and to Jack for providing a quality, mature forum for us to converse in.
It's been fun.

I was thinking of a way I could thank participants with more than just words, and had an idea.
I'd like to give all of you who took a minute to contribute to this thread one of my bowl picks that I would normally post in this thread. I can't think of an easy way to do it, the only thing I come up with is to email the pick to Jack, and he can forward it to those who posted in this thread, BUT, that creates more work for him and I don't want to do that.
I'll try and come up with another way.

And for this final weekend, as I stated in the previous post, I won't be the only one doing a little research to find a pick. This week, you can all join in the fun. I'll post info that gives you the pick (most of which you can find in other posts in this thread), you just have to figure out what the buy is.

And please don't post the play.
Let others look for it too, if they want to.

Here are the spots that qualify thus far.

Play #1:
Ov in Neb, CC, Mizoo, OK, Tenn, A Force
Un in LSU

New Play:
Ov in UAB, Rutgers
Un Oregon
(Remember - these are subject to change based on line movements. I will update tomorrow, as well as add any plays that qualify for Saturday.)

Updated Match #'s:

When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1.

When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, the Under is 2-0.

When Play #1 says take the Under and the New Play says take the Over, the Under is 3-0.

When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 7-1-1.


Buys:
A 7 pt teaser using . . .
Over in the game between Penny's home state vs my hometown (the only city I ever posted a "Hooray" for.)

I'm teasing it because the last two times this Play was on a Friday it stayed Under, and both teams also stayed Under the last time in this spot.

Wait to buy because:
a) weather conditions
b) if the # goes up (unlikely) it may no longer qualify as a play and be removed from the list
c) good chance we get a better # as it may drop

I'll post my # sometime today or tomorrow before kickoff.

 

[PrisonMike]

Hello

Hello

RBD - Long story, short - I joined MJ over a year ago (I believe, if not longer) and would occasionally log in but never contributed to a message or post my two cents. However, I clicked on NCAA fball and was reading your thread and I wish I got in the action earlier this season! I very much appreciate the detailed insights, your time, and wish you continued success/wealth throughout handicapping (and life and health!) Cheers to you and hoping I did my ?first? post/response correctly!


:toast::toast:

 

[RBD]

Mike, I see you signed up Nov 2019 and your post above is your first.
I think it's cool you decided to post here (better late than never.)
Thanks for stepping up out of the shadows and stopping by to say "hello."

Update:
I'll be back with the # I get on today's buy (waiting as recommended yesterday was the right move, we picked up at least 1' to 2 pts.)

Also will add the rest of the spots for the New Play as soon as I'm done 'capping.

Update: Only picked up two more spots for the New Play.
Here's the full card:
Ov in UAB, Rutgers, Ok, Minn
Un Oregon

Oregon was one of the four losses for this 22-4 Under spot. They also won in this spot, 1-1.
Wisconsin is 0-1.
Iowa St has been in this spot three times and has not won once, 0-2-1.
So, with only five spots to chooose from we have slim pickings to begin with, and making things worse - the #'s on the limited choices suck on three of them.

Update: Pyrite Plays: UAB +4', Neb -6'
(Remember these are fades. Season charted at 19-36, Favs 9-13, Dogs 10-20, pic 'em 0-2, M/L 1-0 .)


Buys:
A 7 pt teaser using . . .
Over in the game between Penny's home state vs my hometown (the only city I ever posted a "Hooray" for.)
(If you need more info on what the play is, what's the right move, "When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too?" It's one of the two tonight. CORRECTION - it's the only one tonight.
Update: Waited all day for that hook to drop off.
Here is the #: Piscataway Ov 45

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit the open parlay with Over 45 in the game between Nebraska (home-state of Penny from Big Bang) and Rutgers in Piscataway (my hometown.)

Rutgers has no passing game so I didn't trust them to do their part in getting me over the 52, and the teaser was the right move as it landed on 47.

Now I get to adjust any side or total 7 points in my favor today.
The problem is - where?
I just re-ran the numbers for the New Play and there are no drops or add-ons. This sucks because I was hoping for an add-on as they have a high W percentage. Also was hoping for one more Under.
And how about a hand for those Unders.
Last night's win with Oregon puts it at 23-4 posted for the regular season.

Two Overs to choose from in the New Play.
I'd like to pull that trigger on the Iowa State Over but they haven't won in three appearances in this spot, 0-2-1, and I was lucky to get a push on that third game. The number is high at 58, I don't like it even if I take the 7 points off and get it to 51. You
The Wisconsin spot isn't much better, they scored like what, 20 points combined in their last three games?

I'm open for suggestions, anybody got anything they really like today?

Update: Pyrite Play (these are fades, not a play on the listed team) A Force, Wisc

 

[Coach Woody]

How about the air force total. The number could be a reaction to the army/navy game. Over 31 seems doable

Also I like air force today and at plus +4.5 or 5 depending on what you can buy at sounds like a winner

 

[Tkj]

RBD,
Happy weekend!
How about under in Oregon st 54, I like this play, tease to 61.

 

[BASON]

Bama TT Ov

 

[RBD]

Thanks for the suggestions guys, I'm going to play some of those in my pocket.
Closing out the teaser, for my buy, I'm going to go back to what works for me last night, using the Big Ten, and take the Wisconsin game teased down to 40.

Buys:
Minn/Wisc Ov 40, open half of teaser.

 

[Coach Woody]

So glad you didn't listen to me.


I was way off

 

[Coach Woody]

I guess taking +4.5 us a win.. I had 4 at 6.5 teaser push

 

[RBD]

Recap: I need Over 40. I go into OT tied at 17-17. Easy winner, right?
No. Minnesota misses their FG and the game lands on 37.
My fault - the game was exactly the kind of shit-show I expected it to be. Not a confident pick.
It was an ugly weekend, both systems kicked out more losers than winners.

Final record, college, regular season: 38-29, +$680.00

From post # 1 when I introduced myself:

Just picks in a few different situational spots I track, analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips. And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.
I have different goals.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal. Fact is, MOST bettors lose. They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost EVERYBODY wins!) but it is a fact.

If you don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal #2 is to win.
Goal #3 is The Grail - 67%.

Goal #1 - accomplished.
Goal #2 - accomplished.

Missed on goal #3, but that's a lofty one, something to strive for, but not easily attainable.

It was a good season.
It was fun and profitable despite my standard system, Play #1, not working this year.
But Unders in the New System sure kicked some ass, eh? The Friday night win made it 23-4 posted.
I hope you all had a good season, too.

And a sincere "Thank you!" to all who stopped by to say "hi" and contribute.


Next - the bowls.
A completely different animal.
Play #1 never works in bowls. Since it didn't work in the regular season this year will it work in bowls?
I don't know. But we'll find out.

For bowls, I rely on a completely different system.
I rate each team in seven categories. If a team has the better # in all seven - it's a high rated play.
I have a few other systems I use, I'll explain a bit more after I do the work.
I'll be back with the plays and buys.

 

[RBD]

Bowls

Play #1:
Ov in Memphis, Ok St, Ark, N Car.
No Unders.
I was really interested to see if Unders worked in the bowls, but no fits.

New Play:
Ov in Nev, Clem
Un in BYU, Tex SA, Ok St, Ball St, TCU, Cin, 'Bama, N Car

Reminders:

1) Regular season records are irrelevant on these plays, bowls are different.

2) Plays in #1 do not change. The New Play can change, plays added or dropped due to line moves.

I'm jumping right in with the first spot in the New Play, the Nev game.
It also fits what I used earlier this season, referring to it as an ideal situation, a 32% play says it stays Under while a 65% play says it goes Over (those are reg season stats but I think they'll carry over into bowl season and I like those numbers.)

There are a few 56' still there but 57 is the common number so that's what I'll use here.

Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57

 

[RBD]

Bowl Systems (Play #1 below is not the Play #1 used during the regular system.)

Play #/detail of what it's based on/record/%/years tracked and logged into my notebooks.

Play #1: SOS (Strength of schedule) differential of X, 41-37, 52%, 13 years
(La Laff, Tenn, Miss St, Georgia, Kentucky)

Play #2: Has a better # in all six categories I rate, 15-10, 60%, 13 years
(La Laff)

Play #3: Hits five of six including the two categories with the highest W%, 19-11, 63%
(No plays)

Play #4: T/O differential of X, 14-9, 60%, 13 years
(Indiana, Wake Forest)

Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%, 12 years
(TBD)

Play #6: Has a better # on all six categories AND also the better T/O #, 8-4, 67%, 11 years
(La Laff)

Play #7: SOS differential of X, AND better # on PD (Passing Defense), 11-5, 68%, 10 years
(No plays)

Play #7a: Play #7 AND better # on RO (Rushing Offense), 4-1, 80%, 9 years
(No plays)

Yes, I do a lot of work on bowls.

Why not drop Play #1, since it's barely over .500?
Because it totally crapped out last year at 0-6. Remove that and it's 41-25, 62%.
I'll track it again this year, if it loses I'll drop it, but last year may have been a fluke as it's been profitable or break-even-minus-juice every other year I used it.

As always, I'll post all of the plays that qualify (for record keeping purposes and in case anyone is looking for an angle on a game) and pick from among them for my buys.

Any questions, ask me, I'll be happy to reply.

Also, we have two games today.

Sending out the early "Buy" notice on Nevada Over yesterday was the right move as it's gone up.
(Update -- scratch that, while I was writing this a few 56' showed up; board is divided, 57', 57, 56'.)

Same with waiting on a possible BYU Under buy as it's gone up, too.
It fits the New Play Under, which was an automatic buy for the last few weeks, but bowls are different, no telling how it will perform. (But do I really want to stand on the sidelines and NOT have it in my pocket the first time it's active in the Bowl? No. Even with high-flying UCF as one of the two teams.)


I'll be back after I finish running all the games through the seven scenarios listed above.

Update: La Laf line dropping, board split between 57' & 58, buying now.

Update #2: All bowl system spots have been added under each play.

Update #3: Pyrite Play Nev +1 (Fade)
Reg season on these charted at 21-38, Ov 10-15, Un 11-20, Pick 'em 0-2 (off by one, I know.)
Bowl 1-0 (App St covered) Favs 1-0

Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57
LA-Laf/Tex SA Un 58

 

[lowell]

Great call on Tulane over 57. Thank you

 

[RBD]

You're welcome, Lowell.

FOUR missed opportunities after 1st and goal from the 2 yard line,
THREE missed 2 pt conversions,
TWO missed FG's,
ONE missed extra pt.
And it still went Over.

A little luck never hurts.

NEXT!

Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57
LA-Laf/Tex SA Un 58

 

[PrisonMike]

Bowl Systems (Play #1 below is not the Play #1 used during the regular system.)

Play #/detail of what it's based on/record/%/years tracked and logged into my notebooks.

Play #1: SOS (Strength of schedule) differential of X, 41-37, 52%, 13 years
(La Laff, Tenn, Miss St, Georgia, Kentucky)

Play #2: Has a better # in all six categories I rate, 15-10, 60%, 13 years
(La Laff)

Play #3: Hits five of six including the two categories with the highest W%, 19-11, 63%
(No plays)

Play #4: T/O differential of X, 14-9, 60%, 13 years
(Indiana, Wake Forest)

Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%, 12 years
(TBD)

Play #6: Has a better # on all six categories AND also the better T/O #, 8-4, 67%, 11 years
(La Laff)

Play #7: SOS differential of X, AND better # on PD (Passing Defense), 11-5, 68%, 10 years
(No plays)

Play #7a: Play #7 AND better # on RO (Rushing Offense), 4-1, 80%, 9 years
(No plays)

Yes, I do a lot of work on bowls.

Why not drop Play #1, since it's barely over .500?
Because it totally crapped out last year at 0-6. Remove that and it's 41-25, 62%.
I'll track it again this year, if it loses I'll drop it, but last year may have been a fluke as it's been profitable or break-even-minus-juice every other year I used it.

As always, I'll post all of the plays that qualify (for record keeping purposes and in case anyone is looking for an angle on a game) and pick from among them for my buys.

Any questions, ask me, I'll be happy to reply.

Also, we have two games today.

Sending out the early "Buy" notice on Nevada Over yesterday was the right move as it's gone up.
(Update -- scratch that, while I was writing this a few 56' showed up; board is divided, 57', 57, 56'.)

Same with waiting on a possible BYU Under buy as it's gone up, too.
It fits the New Play Under, which was an automatic buy for the last few weeks, but bowls are different, no telling how it will perform. (But do I really want to stand on the sidelines and NOT have it in my pocket the first time it's active in the Bowl? No. Even with high-flying UCF as one of the two teams.)


I'll be back after I finish running all the games through the seven scenarios listed above.

Update: La Laf line dropping, board split between 57' & 58, buying now.

Update #2: All bowl system spots have been added under each play.

Update #3: Pyrite Play Nev +1 (Fade)
Reg season on these charted at 21-38, Ov 10-15, Un 11-20, Pick 'em 0-2 (off by one, I know.)
Bowl 1-0 (App St covered) Favs 1-0

Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57
LA-Laf/Tex SA Un 58

Great W and analysis RBD with OV 57!! Thank you!!opcorn2

 

[RBD]

You're welcome, Mike.


Just stopped in to say . . .
"That Under play is indestructible."

 

[RBD]

Recap: It was closer than it looks on the final score, but the Over won yesterday with Nevada.

Bowl record: 1-0

The New Play is off to a good start in Bowls, 2-0, Ov in Nev, Un in BYU.

I really liked that Nev spot, with the additional "ideal situation" extra qualifiers of 32% Under vs 65% Over. Unfortunately, it is the only Over that fits those parameters unless there are line moves that provide us with added plays.

And speaking of added plays . . .
Added play: Memphis/Fla Atl total has hit 53 as the commonly available number.
At 53 it qualifies as an Under on the New Play.
If it drops under 53 at most houses before kickoff it will be removed from the play list.
The Mem/FAU game also fits Play #1 as an Over.
What's the move when Play # says Over and the New Play says Under?
The stat is posted in this thread, three different times.

No buys for me yet.

Update:
Handicapping out loud here.
Just some food for thought for anyone who likes to 'cap and is looking for ideas to increase their W %.

I rate Bowl teams in 7 categories.
After the game is played, I mark each category with a red check mark for a loss, green check mark for a win.
For example, one of the categories I use is "Better Passing Defense."
So, if the team that wins ATS had the better passing defense, it gets a green check next to that column.
If the team that wins had the worse passing defense, it gets a red L next to it.
This allows me to rate the strength of each category.
I use this additional info when deciding what to do on the next games.

With three games played, I have only two categories with a perfect 3-0 record:
Points Against and Passing Defense.
Using that info I see that today . . .
Ga South has a better # than La Tech in both categories, as does FAU.

With such a small data sample, this doesn't make them automatic buys,
it's just another factor to figure into my look at a game.
And, if both these teams win today, then I'll be looking closer at any teams that own the better # in these categories as I move forward through the Bowl season.

Update #2: I waited to buy La Laf (Bowl Play #1 & #6) because I was hoping -13' would go to -13.
It's -14 everywhere now so I bought it this morning at -14 in case Conf USA gets another ass-kicking from the Sun Belt today (like App St did to N Tex.) If that happens, it will move money to La Laf.

Update #3: Okay, I want action on the next game, but nothing fits any of my systems so I'm going to use a teaser. I'm taking Geo South, despite the QB problems, in a 6 pt'er, standard odds of 11/10.
Looking to extend the "Strength of Category" angle I noted above,
as well as the "Sun Belt over Conf USA" angle.

Action Play, not an investment, smaller dollar amount/TV action fun, and a separate record.

Also, FAU # dropped to 52 across the board, no longer qualifies as an Under.

Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57 W
LA Laf/Tex SA Un 58
La Laf -14

TV Buys:
Geo South -1, 2 team tease, 11/10.

 

[RBD]

Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%, 12 years.
La Tech Un # coming up asap.

Update - NO PLAY.
I wrote the post with under a minute left in the first half, so as to give anyone interested as much time as possible to consider making a bet if they wanted to. I posted it so that I wouldn't have to waste time doing a write-up, when the books # came out I could just add that to the post. But with under a minute left La Tech had a big kick return and kicked a FG with 9 seconds on the clock. This changed the score and it no longer fits the parameters of a play. Sorry about that.

Update: And the last-seconds first half FG ends up costing me a second half team total Under winner as the # came out at 10' and Tech puts up ZERO. That sucks, it was a good spot for the play as Geo South is a run-first offense and uses a lot of clock. This play pops up 3-4 times per year, but with fewer games this season there will be fewer opportunities, was hoping to get one today.

Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57 W
LA Laf/Tex SA Un 58
La Laf -14

TV Buys:
Geo South -1, 2 team tease, 11/10

 

[RBD]

Okay, we got one from Play #6. (Correction; was Play #5, not 6.)
Florida Atlantic team total Under 7'.

No buy for me, I'm jinxed off of it because of the morning one I missed out on.