College Football buys for 2020

[RBD]

Got a push on an Under that looked like it was going to go way Over, got a loss on an Over that looked like it was going to go Over, got a game at halftime that would be right at the pace where I need it to be if not for a missed FG.

Got a few plays to choose from, I'm going to go with the ones that I have circled because they hit on more than one system (except BYU which only hits on the New Play, but I bought it because of the record there.)
I still have one spot left that hits on two systems, UCLA, but will wait till later see if I buy that.

Buys:
Memphis/Tulane Ov 63'
Purdue Un 64
W Virg/ Iowa St Ov 48
BYU/CC Un 63
Col/Az Ov 57'
Clem/V Tech Ov 67

Update: Hell of a game by Coastal Carolina.
Pushed West Virginia, and lucky to get it.
BYU/CC Under gets me back to 1-1 on the day.
I have two games still open, both of them not on the pace I need. The line has gone up on UCLA Over, so it no longer qualifies as a play, so I lost that option for a late buy.
(Sorry if anyone bought it early.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: I went 1-3 with two pushes. It's Dec 7, and this weekend was my first losing week in college football since the week of Oct 14. It was a nice run.

I can't say I made bad choices, the three losses all had multiple systems working for me, they just didn't come through. Nothing to learn, I would make those same buys again.

Record: 36-27, +$720

Play #1 went 2-3, overall now 54-45, Ov 33-24, Un 18-21.

Back on Oct 23, I said I came up with a new system that was paying well on my chart, and I would start sharing it here. It won every week until this past weekend, when it went 7-8-2; a hell of a nice run.
Overs went 2-8, and this is where I got tagged with my 3 L's.
Unders?
How about a little love for this play? 5-0-1 this week.
That's a remarkable 25-2, 20-2 with plays shared here.

Pyrite Plays went 4-5, which means once again the fade made a profit.
Overall these are charted at 17-30, Favs 8-10, Dogs 9-18.
Sorry, but the public DOESN'T really know where the professional bettors have their money.
What they know is what the books tell them.

Two weeks left to go in college regular season.
Good luck to all of you as we close out the year . . .

 

[Tkj]

RBD,
Great work men, keeping it up!

 

[ron808]

Thank you for your posts and research
Always like reading your post and seeing we are on the same side.

 

[RBD]

Tkj & Ron, you're welcome.
And thanks for taking a minute to stop in and let me know you're out there.

Correction - Looking at my log book this morning I spotted an error in last week's record.
I had Iowa St/W Virg as a loser in Play #1; it was a Push.
Play #1 corrected record is 51-44, Ov 33-23, Un 18-21.

Does it make a difference. Yes.
Especially when you're looking to stay above the professional's number - 53%.
I'll explain for any newbies.

When I stopped by Vegas for a six month sabbatical (which turned into a ten year adventure) I lucked out in choosing the apartment I rented for my short stay. Directly across the hall from me was a guy who was a professional sports bettor. At the pool I met another guy who, along with his partner, made his living betting on sports (I also met a lot of cocktail waitresses and strippers at the pool, but those are stories for another time. And place. They call it Sin City for a reason. A good reason.) In the gym I met a runner (a runner is a guy who places bets for sharp's, usually for a flat weekly salary; they hang around books waiting to get a call telling them what to bet, what side/total, what number.)

I had many conversations with the two pro's about what their goals were, and how they achieved them.
What I learned from them was confirmed by some of the sharps and runners at the book I ran, guys I became friends with.

But for every one guy I met who was successful, long term, I met four or five who tried and failed to make a living betting on sports. And though being a runner may seem like a cool job, it has no health benefits, and comes with the risk of getting arrested, as it's illegal in Nevada.

Can you make a living at hitting just above the break even of 52.4%, betting standard odds of -110?
Let's look back at the record I just corrected.

Play #1 is 51-44, 53%.
Okay, but not great, right?
Let's look at it in terms of dollars.
Betting standard odds of $11 to win $10, 51 wins ='s $510.00; 44 losses ='s $484.00
This nets you a profit of $26.00.

But, up it to a standard, common wager size of $110 to win $100. Now you have a profit of $260.00
A net of $260 is a nice season for the average bettor who's just looking for a little entertainment, a guy who views sports betting as a hobby, which is exactly what most people should do. This is especially true when you understand that MOST bettors lose (except of course on the internet, where everybody "wins" or "breaks even.")

Now think of it in terms of a Sharp's house limit bet of, for example, $11,000 to win $10,000.
At 51-44 you're looking at $26,000.00.
Not enough to live in luxury, but you're getting by.

And remember, every percentage point above that adds to your profitability. Just two more wins or two fewer losses on that 51-44 record and you're at approx. 55%.
And a player can make a decent living at 55% if his bankroll is large enough.

If anyone thinks I'm advocating taking a chance at making a living betting on sports - no.
The #'s above aren't the complete story. There are risks and other expenses to consider.
But the main reasons I don't recommend it are:

1 - It is near impossible to maintain 55% or higher, year after year, in multiple sports.

2 - I have seen too many people move to Vegas to become professionals, only to watch them fail.
They start out making limit bets on multiple games. Then, slowly the number of games they bet decreases, as does their wager amount. Then they start asking for dinner comps, even though their play no longer warrants it. Then one day they're gone, never to be seen again.

'Nuff said.

 

[RBD]

Play #1

Overs in Fla Atl/S Miss, Nev/San Jose St, OK/W Virg, Fresno St/N Mex, Mich St/Penn St, App St/Geo South,
Ok St/Baylor, Aub/Miss St, Utah St/Col St.

Had two Unders, Mich/Ohio St, Ohio/Kent St, both cancelled.

Record on overs is 33-23.

Seeing a few duplicates from last week, let's look closer at them.

W Virg was in this spot last week and was lucky to get a push out if it. Don't like it.

App St was in this spot last week, too, they stayed Under, like it even less than W Virg.

Fresno St, Nev & Col St were in this same spot last week and both won.

On the season:
Fla Atl Ov 0-2, S Miss Ov 1-0, Nev Ov 2-0, Ok Un 0-1, W Virg Ov Push, Fresno St Un 1-0, Ov 2-0,
Mich St Ov 1-0, App St Un 1-0, Ov 1-2, Geo South Un 1-0, Ov 2-1, Ok St Ov 0-2, Baylor Ov 2-0,
Aub Ov 1-1, Miss St Un 1-3, Col St Ov 3-0.

What stands out there?
Col St is 3-0 in this spot.
Fla Atl & Ok St are both 0-2 (but, Ok St faces Baylor who is 2-0.)
Col St is worth a look; definitely a play if it fits the New Play, too (remember from last week - games that qualify as Over in both plays are 6-1-1.)

No buys yet.

Update: I just ran the numbers and found that Col St qualifies as an Over in the New Play.
This may change depending on line movements. The opening number of 53 is dropping, 52' is the common number, and there are a few 51' out there too. No need to buy now, monitor the numbers and wait to buy.

 

[JustFootball]

Think you're missing your calling RBD. You need to be writing a book. The old joke is "everybody has at least one book in them...and that's where it should stay." But reading your mini-memoirs is like seeing a scene from Casino or Goodfellas--and you haven't even gotten to the good stuff. :142smilie

Anyway, thanks for sharing this wisdom. You have confirmed for me that while I am a fairly intelligent person in life, I am way behind the curve--or far too lazy--in capping.

Kudos to you and all of the guys on this site who grind the numbers and share your work.

 

[RBD]

JustFootball,
Thanks for the comments. Funny you should mention writing.
I didn't miss my calling, I've done well as a writer/columnist.
It's not my trade/business, but it's been a lucrative hobby that I just sort of fell into. And it's one of the reasons I'm here (other than my natural altruistic tendencies towards novice bettors) - I need to expand my public profile to help land a new literary agent.
Once upon a time I did write a book.
I beat lottery-like odds and was offered a contract by a literary agent.
We almost got an offer from, at that time, one of the hottest publishers in the business.
Didn't get a deal for that work.
I've written a new book that I want to try and get published. To do so, I need a new agent.


Update:
I ran tonight's and tomorrow's games through parameters for the New Play (looks like that spot will never get a real name, too late in the season, sticking with "New Play" I guess.)
Nothing tonight, but as of right now it looks like N. Tex/UTEP and Nev/S Jose St tomorrow qualify as Unders. And the Az St/Az game misses by a hair and might qualify depending on line moves.

I want to check two things before committing to a buy:
What is the record on Unders in this play in weeknight games?
What is the record of these teams in this spot?

No buys for now, will update after I do some more research.

Update #1: Weekday games. I found three spots.
From the first week I found this system, the last spot before I started posting them here, as mentioned in a few posts in this thread, G South was an Under on Thursday Oct 29, Winner.
Also found Akron Under on a Tuesday, Winner. And FAU on a Friday, Winner, but in the Over spot.

Update #2: I could not find any games where these teams had been in this spot before. No help there.

Just realized - if Nev fits parameters for an Under in the New Play, it conflicts with Play #1, which has it as an Over. What should I do???!!!
Remember this, from 12/4 post #97:

When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1.
When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, the Under is 1-0.
When Play #1 says take the Under and the New Play says take the Over, the Under is 3-0.
When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 6-1, 85%.

And THAT'S why I advocate handicapping your own plays as well as the teams you're thinking of betting on.
I don't have to make a blind decision, I have info tracked that could help me.
Play # Over is 33-23, a nice record.
But the New Play Under is 25-2; 20-2 shared here.
AND . . . when Play #1 says Over but the New Play says Under the Under is 1-0.
I'm buying the Under but waiting to buy. The line's moving in my favor and I think I can pick up another 1 to 1' points by kickoff.

Pyrite Plays (remember - these are fades):
G Tech +7
S Miss +8'
These are 17-30, Favs 8-10, Dogs 9-18, pick 'em 0-2.

Error - wrong game posted. Deleted 2 minutes later. Sorry.

 

[RBD]

New Play:

Overs in Mich St/Penn St, Utah/Col, Akron/Buf, Navy/Army, Cal/Wash St, Boise St/Wyoming,
Utah St/Col St, Fresno St/N Mex

Unders in N Tex/UTEP, Nev/S Jose St, 'Bama/Ark, Georgia/Mizzoo

I took a quick look at past weeks to see how these teams performed if they appeared in this play.
In my log book I put a red dot next to a team for each Loss they had, and a green dot for Wins.

Mich St & Penn St have each lost in this spot as Overs, Penn St has one win. Pass.

Col has a loss, Akron has a loss, I'll pass on both of these games.

Cal, Utah St, and N Mex each have one win in this spot; possibilities there for some late game action.

Here's where it gets interesting - Army has two green dots, 2-0 in this spot, in a game where EVERYONE is touting the Under due to the long running trend of - what is it? - 14 straight Unders?
Line opened 40', I see 37' at some houses now.
Also of note - this is a very low line because of public perception, and 6 of the last 10 played would go Over 37'. Weather doesn't look like it will be a factor.
I'm going to use the Over, maybe straight up, maybe in a teaser.
Will post a buy recommendation when I figure it out.
Final note - if the line drops to 36 today, grab it, good chance there will be a buy back by game time.

Now - what to do about today's card?
Two spots fit the Under in the New Play, and Az barely misses. (Clarification - as an Over, not an Under.)
If the Az game total drops enough it might be an added game.

Since the fifth win tracked in my logbook, putting this Under spot at 5-0, I've played every one of these (maybe missed one.) At the Win rate it was giving me how could I not?
I don't post all of them as Buys, but with that record do I really need to?
Everyone can make their own decision on that call. And it's an easy one.
If you've been banking units, I'd suggest keep riding it. If not, "Don't jump on already established trends" is a good general rule to follow, and if you do jump on, don't go crazy (don't increase your standard wager size) because at 20-2, the time to be on this play was 22 games ago.

Play #1 has the Nev spot as an Over. As pointed out yesterday, the Under won the only other time there was this conflict between Play #1 and the New Play. I'd feel better about going against Play#1 Over if it didn't win last night with FAU/S Miss. That makes it 34-23 now, 60%; no 20-2, but no slouch either.

Still, "Ya gotta dance with the one that brung ya" and "You ride her until she bucks ya."
So . . . I'm taking Nev/San Jose St Un.

Opening 57' is up to 59, I'm waiting and monitoring the number, will post what I buy it at.


Pyrite (1-1 last night):

Update:
A few houses at 60 now, I'm grabbing it.

Buys:
Nev/San Jose St Un 60 (with a nod to LonghornMM there)

 

[ron808]

:0074

 

[Tkj]

GO RBD! Awesome!

 

[RBD]

Thanks guys. That game was not a lot of fun.
I thought we were dead when the second-half kickoff was run back for a touchdown to start the half.

Short on time, way behind schedule, trying to get college football updated and college basketball handicapped.

No buys yet, I just wanted to stop by to do my usual Saturday morning update on the New Play. No games dropped off this week but one is added, LSU/Florida Over.

Update: Pyrite Plays (remember these are fades, do not play on the team I list)
Utah, Penn St, W Mich, N I'll, Wisc.
I posted the only one last night, Nevada but I don't see it, I must not have hit the save button. The record on these is 18-32, Favs 8-11, Dogs 9-20 (hence the fade.)

 

[Lightning]

Kinda new to your thread. Are buys the only games you played or recommend playing?

Thanks for the info and hard work.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[LonghornMM]

Thanks, RBD. :0074

 

[RBD]

Longhorn, you're welcome.
Lightning, plays listed are for record keeping and for anyone who's looking for an angle on them for possibly making a play.
Buys are the ones I recommend.

 

[Lightning]

Longhorn, you're welcome.
Lightning, plays listed are correct in keeping and for anyone who's looking for an angle on them for possibly a play.
Buys are the ones I recommend.

Thank you and good luck!

[emoji857][emoji301][emoji319][emoji301][emoji857]

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

 

[RBD]

Lightning, you're welcome.

Longhorn - you know if that if that game lost I would have:
a) blamed you
and
b) never put a pick in bold again
Just kidding.

Buys:
Boise St/Wyoming Ov 46'

 

[RBD]

The added plays on Saturday, New System, have done well, (5-2 Ov I think) so adding...

Buys:
LSU/Fla Ov 66'

 

[RBD]

Revenge is not a system to be bet on.
Do not make a bet out of anger.
Do not follow the pick of someone who's betting in anger.

The only thing worse than a touchdown being called back by the refs for a phantom foul is when they show the replay and the announcers point out there was no foul.
F'ing crooks.

And the only thing worse than that is when after an entire possession/series of downs follows and they come back and show the replay AGAIN to show you there was no foul.
F'ing crooks.

There should have been 20 points scored with almost five minutes left in the first half,
but . . . refs.
F'ing crooks.

I don't care what second half line comes out.
These F'ers owe me.

And just now, last play of the first half, pass interference on Wyoming, and . . . no call.
And again the announcers alluded to the non-call.

Wyoming is a running team who ran for only 52 yards in the first half. And their passing game is worse than their running game. I'm so pissed I'm tempted to make this a 2 unit play, laying the points with Boise.

Update: I can't do it. The line just came out and it's a bad number. No buy. Don't bet in anger.

Buys:
Boise Ov 46'
Fla Ov 66'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won two of three, hit with Nev Un & Fla Ov, missed with Wyoming Ov.

Last week was my first losing week since Oct, it was important to win this week so it didn't turn into a losing streak.

Of the four Unders to choose from in the New Play, I stayed off N Tex because of the pace they play and lack of defense. I graded Nev as the strongest so it's the only one I recommended as a buy.
Nev hit on THREE systems I track, including a sub-system I shared here:

When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1.
When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, the Under is 1-0.
When Play #1 says take the Under and the New Play says take the Over, the Under is 3-0.
When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 6-1, 85%.

Based on that, I hope some of you had Mich St/Penn St Over as it was a 6-1 spot, too.
I originally didn't like the game but noticed early Saturday that it was also in this 6-1 spot.
Unfortunately, I got shut out of the morning games. Got so caught up in re-running the #'s for the New Play (time well spent as we got one added game that won for me later- LSU/Fla) and trying to get college hoops 'capped (also a good use of time as they went 4-2), that I lost track of time and missed getting bets in before the 9 am kickoff. I usually put a few bets in Friday night, but not this week as I was waiting for a better number on a few of them.

Also in the mix on Saturday was a good lesson for newbies - DON'T bet in anger.
The second half wager I almost made in the Wyoming game would have been a loser.
Revenge is NOT a reason to bet.
Keep your emotions out of your handicapping.

Record: 38-28, +$810.00

Play #1 went 4-3; season at 55-47, 37-26 Ov, 18-21 Un.
This play is regular season only, so this week will be the last of it.

New Play went 6-4. This was a good win because it lost last week, first time since I started posting it back in October. Unders came in at 2-2, but Overs had a strong day at 4-2.
Season has Ov 25-21 , Un 22-4 Un.

Pyrite, for any newbies just finding their way here, is a mineral known as Fool's Gold.
And that's what these plays are. They went 2-6, for a very solid 6-2 fade.
Season charted at 19-36, Favs 9-13, Dogs 10-20, pic 'em 0-3.

All three systems had a winning week, combined at 16-9, 64%.
Hope I can do it one more time.
If so, great. If not - it's been a nice run, a solid season, hope you all banked.

I'll update with Play #1 asap.

Update, Tue 12/15:
Play #1
Ov in Neb, CC, Mizoo, OK, Tenn, A Force
Un in LSU

Every week I spend hours doing handicapping work. This week some of you will join in the fun.
I'll be back with clues on the buys.