College Football buys for 2020
- Thread starter RBD
- Start date
Thanks Coach.
Yeah, the TD that turned out to be a fumble at the goal line had me cursing out the TV.
The Over was definitely closer than the final score showed, had to sweat it out a little bit but we got the W.
I've talked about "flow" here before, meaning there's a flow to life, when things are going well they tend to go well in all areas. And opposite that, if you lose your job, your wife leaves you, and your dog dies, it's probably NOT a good week to press your bets.
Today is an example of that theory.
I'm having a really good week, got a nice deposit in my bank, got a great offer on a writing gig, some cool, personal stuff happening, and I hit my early games.
I go to set up my late game action, check the current lines and see that there's no line available on UCLA/Oregon, the only Under I have to play today.
WTF? A late cancel due to covid?
I double check my log book, it's scheduled for 7:30 PST.
I check the line service, it says 10:30 EST.
WTF?
I go to the scoreboard and see . . . it already started.
And, they have 45 points in at the half.
And I have no action.
They moved up the start time and I missed it.
A lucky accident cuz I would have been on the Under.
When it rains it pours,
and when the sun is shining on you it keeps on shining!
Update: So much for the "flow" theory.
From my Monday recap: "Doing final line checks on Saturday mornings has been a good use of my time. Saturday added plays are 4-2."
Four added plays today.
The final one just went Over.
I check my tickets - I don't have it.
Yeah, the TD that turned out to be a fumble at the goal line had me cursing out the TV.
The Over was definitely closer than the final score showed, had to sweat it out a little bit but we got the W.
I've talked about "flow" here before, meaning there's a flow to life, when things are going well they tend to go well in all areas. And opposite that, if you lose your job, your wife leaves you, and your dog dies, it's probably NOT a good week to press your bets.
Today is an example of that theory.
I'm having a really good week, got a nice deposit in my bank, got a great offer on a writing gig, some cool, personal stuff happening, and I hit my early games.
I go to set up my late game action, check the current lines and see that there's no line available on UCLA/Oregon, the only Under I have to play today.
WTF? A late cancel due to covid?
I double check my log book, it's scheduled for 7:30 PST.
I check the line service, it says 10:30 EST.
WTF?
I go to the scoreboard and see . . . it already started.
And, they have 45 points in at the half.
And I have no action.
They moved up the start time and I missed it.
A lucky accident cuz I would have been on the Under.
When it rains it pours,
and when the sun is shining on you it keeps on shining!
Update: So much for the "flow" theory.
From my Monday recap: "Doing final line checks on Saturday mornings has been a good use of my time. Saturday added plays are 4-2."
Four added plays today.
The final one just went Over.
I check my tickets - I don't have it.
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Post below contains updated accounting and records.
Recap: Hit my buy, App St/CC Ov.
Record: 32-23, + $760
Audit: Did a full double check/accounting, found a few errors, factored in juice, corrected record above.
Errors were usually when I did a Monday morning recap of Saturday play and forgot to add weekday plays, such as Thursday nights. Errors went both ways, missed a W, missed an L, etc; also had my record at 16-17 early Nov. when it was 17-18.
I also did a breakdown of which plays work for me, which ones don't, so I can use that info moving forward.
I found that, as usual, Unders are my strength at 12-4-1. Overs are 8-5.
I have Favs at 4-1, and Dogs at 2-2.
Teasers are a nightmare to account for, especially when you keep one spot open for future use.
I didn't calculate W/L's there, don't need to - looking at my record on Ov/Un and Fav/Dogs it's easy to see that most of my losses come from teasers, so I'll be avoiding them for the most part.
There are a lot plays and numbers involved here, there may/may not be a slight error in the numbers above, but they should be accurate or damn close to it.
Notes:
The New Play went 6-4 last week. That makes it 40-14 now. That's 74% with over 50 plays.
Even if you remove the 5 plays that I charted while finding this system (the 5 that weren't posted here because I didn't know the play had any value yet) the record is still 35-14, 69% at about 50 plays.
Overs are 22-12, Unders are 18-2, all but 5 shared here for record verification and in case anyone was looking for an angle on any of those games.
Play #1 went 6-1 last week, Ov 5-0, Un 1-1. Season is 45-38, Ov 28-21, Un 17-17.
Including my NFL (14-8, +$520.00) I'm 46-31, a hair under 60% with close to 80 buys (and I have an open teaser from the Bronco play Sunday; if I hit with part two I'm a hair Over 60%.)
A $100 bettor is up approx. $1,280.00.
Current run, hit 18-5 on my last 23 picks, college and pro.
Last week I said I have an asterisk next to three games but no note as to what that asterisk means.
I figured out why I did it. One of those three spots was cancelled (Clem) the other two went Over (Wash & App St.) This week, SMU/E Car has an asterisk next to it in my logbook.
If the numbers don't move drastically against me, the Over in that spot will be my first buy.
I have enough units banked, and enough data accumulated to use over the rest of the season, that I should be able to hit goal #2: End the season in the black.
Play #1:
Overs in Col St/A Force, N Tex/Tex SA, K St/Baylor, Geo/S Car, Troy/App St.
Unders in N Ill/ W Mich, Louisville/BC, Mem/Navy, SMU/E Car, Duke/G Tech.
No buys yet.
Update, Wed 11/25:
The New Play record looks too good, so I'm doing a separate audit on it. Found an error in the first week I shared here. Had it at 10-1 in my logbook, I double-checked the scores, found Coastal Carolia has a green circle around it (I use green ink for winners) should have had the red circle (red ink for losers.) Record is off by one. Will do the other two weeks now and update when completed.
Update #2 Wed 11/25:
Everything else checks out okay, with one note I want to add. I think I've established myself enough here for posters to know I'm honest. So if I say the Under in the new play was 4-0 the first week I charted it but didn't post it, most people will believe me (skeptics are understandable.) When I post records it's for info purposes. If I was bragging you'd see records in bold letters or in title threads. Anyway, to keep it simple moving forward I'll remove the first week record that I have in my chart and calculate the New Play record using posted spots only. (The first week was not posted because I had just isolated the play, and didn't know it would have value yet.)
That puts the New Play at 28-10, 73%, Ov 15-8, Un 13-2.
(Anybody wants to double-check me on it please do. Thanks.)
I'm stuck in California right now, family and friends all back home, so I'll be around throughout the holiday weekend, updating plays and buys. Any questions, fire away.
Happy Thanksgiving to all the Jackers.
Recap: Hit my buy, App St/CC Ov.
Record: 32-23, + $760
Audit: Did a full double check/accounting, found a few errors, factored in juice, corrected record above.
Errors were usually when I did a Monday morning recap of Saturday play and forgot to add weekday plays, such as Thursday nights. Errors went both ways, missed a W, missed an L, etc; also had my record at 16-17 early Nov. when it was 17-18.
I also did a breakdown of which plays work for me, which ones don't, so I can use that info moving forward.
I found that, as usual, Unders are my strength at 12-4-1. Overs are 8-5.
I have Favs at 4-1, and Dogs at 2-2.
Teasers are a nightmare to account for, especially when you keep one spot open for future use.
I didn't calculate W/L's there, don't need to - looking at my record on Ov/Un and Fav/Dogs it's easy to see that most of my losses come from teasers, so I'll be avoiding them for the most part.
There are a lot plays and numbers involved here, there may/may not be a slight error in the numbers above, but they should be accurate or damn close to it.
Notes:
The New Play went 6-4 last week. That makes it 40-14 now. That's 74% with over 50 plays.
Even if you remove the 5 plays that I charted while finding this system (the 5 that weren't posted here because I didn't know the play had any value yet) the record is still 35-14, 69% at about 50 plays.
Overs are 22-12, Unders are 18-2, all but 5 shared here for record verification and in case anyone was looking for an angle on any of those games.
Play #1 went 6-1 last week, Ov 5-0, Un 1-1. Season is 45-38, Ov 28-21, Un 17-17.
Including my NFL (14-8, +$520.00) I'm 46-31, a hair under 60% with close to 80 buys (and I have an open teaser from the Bronco play Sunday; if I hit with part two I'm a hair Over 60%.)
A $100 bettor is up approx. $1,280.00.
Current run, hit 18-5 on my last 23 picks, college and pro.
Last week I said I have an asterisk next to three games but no note as to what that asterisk means.
I figured out why I did it. One of those three spots was cancelled (Clem) the other two went Over (Wash & App St.) This week, SMU/E Car has an asterisk next to it in my logbook.
If the numbers don't move drastically against me, the Over in that spot will be my first buy.
I have enough units banked, and enough data accumulated to use over the rest of the season, that I should be able to hit goal #2: End the season in the black.
Play #1:
Overs in Col St/A Force, N Tex/Tex SA, K St/Baylor, Geo/S Car, Troy/App St.
Unders in N Ill/ W Mich, Louisville/BC, Mem/Navy, SMU/E Car, Duke/G Tech.
No buys yet.
Update, Wed 11/25:
The New Play record looks too good, so I'm doing a separate audit on it. Found an error in the first week I shared here. Had it at 10-1 in my logbook, I double-checked the scores, found Coastal Carolia has a green circle around it (I use green ink for winners) should have had the red circle (red ink for losers.) Record is off by one. Will do the other two weeks now and update when completed.
Update #2 Wed 11/25:
Everything else checks out okay, with one note I want to add. I think I've established myself enough here for posters to know I'm honest. So if I say the Under in the new play was 4-0 the first week I charted it but didn't post it, most people will believe me (skeptics are understandable.) When I post records it's for info purposes. If I was bragging you'd see records in bold letters or in title threads. Anyway, to keep it simple moving forward I'll remove the first week record that I have in my chart and calculate the New Play record using posted spots only. (The first week was not posted because I had just isolated the play, and didn't know it would have value yet.)
That puts the New Play at 28-10, 73%, Ov 15-8, Un 13-2.
(Anybody wants to double-check me on it please do. Thanks.)
I'm stuck in California right now, family and friends all back home, so I'll be around throughout the holiday weekend, updating plays and buys. Any questions, fire away.
Happy Thanksgiving to all the Jackers.
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Happy Thanksgiving RBD
I can tell you put a lot of work into this.
Great job and keep it up...
Looking forward to your buys this week.
I can tell you put a lot of work into this.
Great job and keep it up...
Looking forward to your buys this week.
Thanks, Coach, hope you had a nice Thanksgiving, too.
New Play (records in Post #84):
Overs in Iowa St/Tex, G South/ G St, SMU/E Car, B Green/Ohio, Mia-Oh/Akron, K St/Baylor, TCU/Kansas
Unders in N Dame/N Car, Ohio St/Ill, Kent St/Buf, Auburn/'Bama, Rutgers/Purdue
Still 'capping the full card, thought I'd drop in with the Friday spots before I finish, give people a chance to play these early if they'd like. The board is split between 57/57' on the Iowa St/Tex game, I have no feel for which way it moves so I'll grab the Ov 57 now.
A quick look tells me each of these teams has been in an Over in this spot and both lost, but . . .
Iowa lost because K St put up a zero (due to lousy O on K State's part, not great D on Iowa St.)
Texas lost because they faced a tough W Virg D that surrenders just under 18 PPG; Iowa St is NOT W Virg, the Cyclones give up an avg of 28 per.)
Buys:
Iowa St/Tex Ov 57
Update: And . . . just like the other day, between the time I do my write-up, edit it, and post, the line moves. All the 57 are gone now, plenty of 57' still available, that's what I'll use here.
Buys:
Iowa St/Tex Ov 57'
Update:
A 20 pt first quarter had me in good shape to start the game, but Iowa St kept settling for FG's after Q1.
And Texas? Up by 4 pts, 20-16, with 8 minutes left in the game, 3rd and 3 they only get 1 yd.
So, 4th and 2, kick the FG and go up by a full TD, right? (which might give me a chance at OT, 23-23.)
No. They go for it, and turn the ball over on downs.
And the reward for being a moron who struggles with basic math, clock management, and doesn't understand simple game strategy? Iowa St just scored a TD with a minute left, they're up 23-20.
With play calling like that Coach, you deserve to lose.
That spot is a lost cause.
I'm adding the other spot in the New Play, N Dame/NC Un 70.
Also, not from any of the other systems I've used here, but from one I call Pyrite Plays.
The mineral pyrite is known as Fool's Gold.
I use the term for the plays of bettors who believe the books provide them with accurate inside info on incoming dollars wagered to show them where the "sharp" money is, to help them win their bets. I have these charted at 8-18 in college. Two spots left today, the first is Stanford; later it's on Oregon St. Fade 'em!
Buys:
Iowa St/Tex Ov 57'
N Dame/BC Un 70
Cal +2
New Play (records in Post #84):
Overs in Iowa St/Tex, G South/ G St, SMU/E Car, B Green/Ohio, Mia-Oh/Akron, K St/Baylor, TCU/Kansas
Unders in N Dame/N Car, Ohio St/Ill, Kent St/Buf, Auburn/'Bama, Rutgers/Purdue
Still 'capping the full card, thought I'd drop in with the Friday spots before I finish, give people a chance to play these early if they'd like. The board is split between 57/57' on the Iowa St/Tex game, I have no feel for which way it moves so I'll grab the Ov 57 now.
A quick look tells me each of these teams has been in an Over in this spot and both lost, but . . .
Iowa lost because K St put up a zero (due to lousy O on K State's part, not great D on Iowa St.)
Texas lost because they faced a tough W Virg D that surrenders just under 18 PPG; Iowa St is NOT W Virg, the Cyclones give up an avg of 28 per.)
Buys:
Iowa St/Tex Ov 57
Update: And . . . just like the other day, between the time I do my write-up, edit it, and post, the line moves. All the 57 are gone now, plenty of 57' still available, that's what I'll use here.
Buys:
Iowa St/Tex Ov 57'
Update:
A 20 pt first quarter had me in good shape to start the game, but Iowa St kept settling for FG's after Q1.
And Texas? Up by 4 pts, 20-16, with 8 minutes left in the game, 3rd and 3 they only get 1 yd.
So, 4th and 2, kick the FG and go up by a full TD, right? (which might give me a chance at OT, 23-23.)
No. They go for it, and turn the ball over on downs.
And the reward for being a moron who struggles with basic math, clock management, and doesn't understand simple game strategy? Iowa St just scored a TD with a minute left, they're up 23-20.
With play calling like that Coach, you deserve to lose.
That spot is a lost cause.
I'm adding the other spot in the New Play, N Dame/NC Un 70.
Also, not from any of the other systems I've used here, but from one I call Pyrite Plays.
The mineral pyrite is known as Fool's Gold.
I use the term for the plays of bettors who believe the books provide them with accurate inside info on incoming dollars wagered to show them where the "sharp" money is, to help them win their bets. I have these charted at 8-18 in college. Two spots left today, the first is Stanford; later it's on Oregon St. Fade 'em!
Buys:
Iowa St/Tex Ov 57'
N Dame/BC Un 70
Cal +2
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Recap: Hell of a 2-1 day yesterday. With a 28-point first quarter it looked like N Dame/NC might be over by halftime, but NC only scored three points the rest of the way and the game stayed under by 21 points.
And could a game end more perfectly than Stanford/Cal?
Getting +2 with Cal, Cal down by 7, less than a minute left, they score a TD. The extra point means it will go to overtime and I could lose by 3 or 6, BUT... They miss the kick, and lose by 1.
Record: 34-24, + $850.00
Just finished running the numbers, the Saturday update on the New Play, and there are a few changes.
Ohio State dropped, game canceled.
Also lost SMU/E Car, Kent St/Buf, Auburn/'Bama, and Rutgers/Purdue, all dropped because of changes to the numbers.
Not happy, I had that SMU game circled. Also lost four Unders, which with yesterday's N Dame win move to 14-2.
Did pick up two games though:
Miss St/Miss Un, Texas A&M/LSU Ov.
Update: I forgot to add the Pyrite Plays.
Some already started but posting them now for record-keeping purposes, or in case someone wants to do an in-game live buy, or pick up one of the later starts.
No buy recommendations yet.
The record is 10-20 so these are ALL FADES:
Georgia State, Penn State, Maryland, Kent State, Texas Tech, Vandy, North Texas, Pitt.
Buys:
B Green/Ohio Ov 54
And could a game end more perfectly than Stanford/Cal?
Getting +2 with Cal, Cal down by 7, less than a minute left, they score a TD. The extra point means it will go to overtime and I could lose by 3 or 6, BUT... They miss the kick, and lose by 1.
Record: 34-24, + $850.00
Just finished running the numbers, the Saturday update on the New Play, and there are a few changes.
Ohio State dropped, game canceled.
Also lost SMU/E Car, Kent St/Buf, Auburn/'Bama, and Rutgers/Purdue, all dropped because of changes to the numbers.
Not happy, I had that SMU game circled. Also lost four Unders, which with yesterday's N Dame win move to 14-2.
Did pick up two games though:
Miss St/Miss Un, Texas A&M/LSU Ov.
Update: I forgot to add the Pyrite Plays.
Some already started but posting them now for record-keeping purposes, or in case someone wants to do an in-game live buy, or pick up one of the later starts.
No buy recommendations yet.
The record is 10-20 so these are ALL FADES:
Georgia State, Penn State, Maryland, Kent State, Texas Tech, Vandy, North Texas, Pitt.
Buys:
B Green/Ohio Ov 54
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Coach & Roman,
Thanks for stopping in. And yes, it was a good pick, BUT . . .
I like to enjoy a Saturday lunch while rooting on one of my bets.
Got Over 54 in BG/Ohio.
Ohio scores with under two minutes left in the half to put the score at 35-10, a total of 45.
I'm thinking, "Great. I only need 10 pts in the second half and I have a winner."
I run down to the pizza joint on the corner, grab a meatball sub, and settle in for what should be a fun second half. My timing is perfect, the second half is just starting.
I look at the scoreboard and do a double take - it says 45-10.
WTF??!!
I check the box score and see BG turned it over on two straight possessions and Ohio scored 10 pts in the final 42 seconds. Now I have NO interest in the game. Luckily, I had a little on the Pyrite Play on Missouri so I switched over to that and enjoyed my lunch watching them get a win for me.
Recap: Went 3-1 in college last week, and hit my only NFL play, closing out a teaser, for another nice weekend. Pissed that the SMU/E Car game I had circled fell just short of qualifying as an Over in the New Play as they combined for 90 pts! Can't complain though, the spot that was my second choice, BG/Ohio, did the job.
Record 35-24, +$950
With 15-8 NFL my football combined is 50-32, 60% with over 80 picks given.
Now . . . anybody interested in a 6-1, 85% play I found?
If one lurker stops in to say "Hi" I'll post the system here.
Someone who hasn't already posted in this thread, just ONE, stop by, say hello, get the play.
Play #1 went 4-4 last week, Ov 3-1, Un 1-3.
Season now at 49-42, Ov 31-22, Un 18-20.
Strange year, Unders are usually where the money is won.
New Play went 6-3, Ov 4-3, Un 2-0.
Season for plays posted here only now at 34-13, Ov 19-11, Un 15-2.
After the Under took it's first loss (after hitting 18 straight) I thought the record may start to level out, but both plays won last week. Hope to get a few more of these before the season ends.
Finally, the Pyrite Plays. I'll do a separate thread on explaining what these are some day, because I'm pretty sure it will stir up some shit from "The Believers" and I don't want negative energy in the thread where I share my picks. They went 3-5 for a profitable 5-3 fade as suggested.
On the season, I have these at 13-25, or a 65% fade (making it difficult for The Believers to prove their theory and deny my facts re: where "Sharp" money is going on a game.)
Play #1:
Overs in LA Laf/App St, W Virg/Iowa St and Fresno St/Nev.
One Under, BC/Virg.
Freak week, not many plays available to choose from.
Overs have been paying off, but not sure I trust that W Virg/Iowa St number.
I'll go through my log book and see how all the teams that qualify this week have done in this spot previously this season, see if I can find an edge.
Back with New Plays when I have my #'s done, will have Pyrite Plays when available (should say "if" available. After the losses pile up, these plays tend to disappear.)
Thanks for stopping in. And yes, it was a good pick, BUT . . .
I like to enjoy a Saturday lunch while rooting on one of my bets.
Got Over 54 in BG/Ohio.
Ohio scores with under two minutes left in the half to put the score at 35-10, a total of 45.
I'm thinking, "Great. I only need 10 pts in the second half and I have a winner."
I run down to the pizza joint on the corner, grab a meatball sub, and settle in for what should be a fun second half. My timing is perfect, the second half is just starting.
I look at the scoreboard and do a double take - it says 45-10.
WTF??!!
I check the box score and see BG turned it over on two straight possessions and Ohio scored 10 pts in the final 42 seconds. Now I have NO interest in the game. Luckily, I had a little on the Pyrite Play on Missouri so I switched over to that and enjoyed my lunch watching them get a win for me.
Recap: Went 3-1 in college last week, and hit my only NFL play, closing out a teaser, for another nice weekend. Pissed that the SMU/E Car game I had circled fell just short of qualifying as an Over in the New Play as they combined for 90 pts! Can't complain though, the spot that was my second choice, BG/Ohio, did the job.
Record 35-24, +$950
With 15-8 NFL my football combined is 50-32, 60% with over 80 picks given.
Now . . . anybody interested in a 6-1, 85% play I found?
If one lurker stops in to say "Hi" I'll post the system here.
Someone who hasn't already posted in this thread, just ONE, stop by, say hello, get the play.
Play #1 went 4-4 last week, Ov 3-1, Un 1-3.
Season now at 49-42, Ov 31-22, Un 18-20.
Strange year, Unders are usually where the money is won.
New Play went 6-3, Ov 4-3, Un 2-0.
Season for plays posted here only now at 34-13, Ov 19-11, Un 15-2.
After the Under took it's first loss (after hitting 18 straight) I thought the record may start to level out, but both plays won last week. Hope to get a few more of these before the season ends.
Finally, the Pyrite Plays. I'll do a separate thread on explaining what these are some day, because I'm pretty sure it will stir up some shit from "The Believers" and I don't want negative energy in the thread where I share my picks. They went 3-5 for a profitable 5-3 fade as suggested.
On the season, I have these at 13-25, or a 65% fade (making it difficult for The Believers to prove their theory and deny my facts re: where "Sharp" money is going on a game.)
Play #1:
Overs in LA Laf/App St, W Virg/Iowa St and Fresno St/Nev.
One Under, BC/Virg.
Freak week, not many plays available to choose from.
Overs have been paying off, but not sure I trust that W Virg/Iowa St number.
I'll go through my log book and see how all the teams that qualify this week have done in this spot previously this season, see if I can find an edge.
Back with New Plays when I have my #'s done, will have Pyrite Plays when available (should say "if" available. After the losses pile up, these plays tend to disappear.)
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Doing some great work here RBD. Should have mentioned it earlier, but I get caught up in my own capping sometimes especially with soccer going non-stop. I love the detail, so keep up the great work!!
Go RBD! I?m new to this forums and been following your pick for 3,4 week now, and PROFIT!
Love it! Keep it up!
Love it! Keep it up!
I'm interested to know how you see the WV game playing out? WV has some massive statistical advantages on the defensive side....I don't see ISU being able to do much. I show the total opening at 48 with early arbitrage pushing through key number of 49....and a little reverse line movement never hurts....some of my concern in relation to the over is.its going to be freezing in Ames on Saturday ( games starts at 330. Sun sets 447pm)
. most of the game will be played in 20 degree weather... neither team has played in cold weather this season..... Its early but I'm leaning WV outright
Thank you for the work you are putting in.... as classy and knowledgeable as any poster on the web
First, THANK YOU to Bason, Tk, PJ, and T. Shelby and Samson for stopping by.
(And Samson, I'll get back to you with an answer to your question asap.)
And, not to play favorites, but special thanks to Tk.
The rest of you aren't really lurkers, you're contributors, you post plays, add info, join conversations, etc.
A lurker never posts - they just stay in the background, take info out, put nothing in.
That's okay, some people are shy, some wish to maintain privacy, some feel (incorrectly) that they have nothing to add (though some are human ticks, but what are ya gonna do? You can't put a match to 'em, right?)
But it looks like Tk just joined the forum, which makes him a lurker-no-more, a shining example for the rest of the deadbeat info-suckers (just messing wit ya, you guys are okay.) (No you're not.)
I'm kidding with all this lurker stuff. Post, don't post, whatever makes you happy.
Every once in a while I just like messing with the one-way street'ers.
Anyway, I stopped by to drop in a note or two.
First, I posted a riddle in my NFL thread that WILL tie into handicapping, stop by to check it out if you'd like.
Second - I ran the numbers for the New Play for tonight and tomorrow's games and unfortunately nothing fits. But the AF game comes close, and if the line moves enough in the right direction it might qualify as an Under. I'll check it again later this afternoon, and if it does qualify I'll drop by with an update.
Again, thanks to all who stopped by to say "hi."
Update:
Messing with Kids Ball too much, missed a Pyrite Play, N Tex pk (fade it.)
I also missed that it's an early start, thought it was the typical 4 pm. Ugh.
Not a buy recommendation (but check the record on these plays), but I'm taking a live in-game bet if I can get a good # on LT.
Update:
Damn it, LT just put up 7, now I have to lay 6' instead of pick or -1.
I'm not doing it, maybe N Tex can tie it up and I can get the original line.
DON'T bet a really bad number just because you screwed up and missed the best number.
(And Samson, I'll get back to you with an answer to your question asap.)
And, not to play favorites, but special thanks to Tk.
The rest of you aren't really lurkers, you're contributors, you post plays, add info, join conversations, etc.
A lurker never posts - they just stay in the background, take info out, put nothing in.
That's okay, some people are shy, some wish to maintain privacy, some feel (incorrectly) that they have nothing to add (though some are human ticks, but what are ya gonna do? You can't put a match to 'em, right?)
But it looks like Tk just joined the forum, which makes him a lurker-no-more, a shining example for the rest of the deadbeat info-suckers (just messing wit ya, you guys are okay.) (No you're not.)
I'm kidding with all this lurker stuff. Post, don't post, whatever makes you happy.
Every once in a while I just like messing with the one-way street'ers.
Anyway, I stopped by to drop in a note or two.
First, I posted a riddle in my NFL thread that WILL tie into handicapping, stop by to check it out if you'd like.
Second - I ran the numbers for the New Play for tonight and tomorrow's games and unfortunately nothing fits. But the AF game comes close, and if the line moves enough in the right direction it might qualify as an Under. I'll check it again later this afternoon, and if it does qualify I'll drop by with an update.
Again, thanks to all who stopped by to say "hi."
Update:
Messing with Kids Ball too much, missed a Pyrite Play, N Tex pk (fade it.)
I also missed that it's an early start, thought it was the typical 4 pm. Ugh.
Not a buy recommendation (but check the record on these plays), but I'm taking a live in-game bet if I can get a good # on LT.
Update:
Damn it, LT just put up 7, now I have to lay 6' instead of pick or -1.
I'm not doing it, maybe N Tex can tie it up and I can get the original line.
DON'T bet a really bad number just because you screwed up and missed the best number.
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Samson, I'll likely stay away from the W Virg/Iowa St game, both as a Buy Recommendation and as a play in my pocket for TV action/rooting interest. A quick check of my charts shows that neither has been active in Play #1 (so I have no W/L record to look at there) but Iowa St recently failed to deliver wins twice when active in Overs in the New Play. I'll look elsewhere for profit and fun.
As for Reverse Line Movement, I don't believe in them, and will offer my facts in a separate thread. I'd like someone to take counterpoint when I make my point on this (and "SHARP $$$ PLAYS!"), and suspect many will jump in, maybe you'll add to the discussion with your POV. I think the forum is at its best when opposite opinions are offered, making points for both sides of a debate (or which team to bet on), allowing readers to make an informed decision.
Hopefully that post will stay constructive and informative and not digress (believers tend to get heated when their beliefs are challenged.) Fair warning to all believers - I come equipped with facts, not theory or opinion (or, more relative, what you'd like to believe is true.)
Some updates from yesterday:
"AF game comes close, and if the line moves enough in the right direction it might qualify as an Under."
Last I checked, late afternoon, the total was 50'/51 across the board, needed to get to 51' to qualify as an Under for the New Play. I went to buy the game and saw 51, so I didn't post as it was a 1/2 pt short.
This morning, I check results and see two sites list the closing # at 51'. I guess it went up a little right before kickoff. Next time, I'll post the # it has to hit to qualify in case anyone is interested in buying it.
"Not a buy recommendation (but check the record on these plays), but I'm taking a live in-game bet if I can get a good # on LT.
Update:
Damn it, LT just put up 7, now I have to lay 6' instead of pick or -1.
I'm not doing it, maybe N Tex can tie it up and I can get the original line. "
I missed the start of the game and didn't post, but made up for it with this late info, as N Tex DID tie it up, and the # was available at -1'. N Tex even went up 14-7 and you could have gotten LT as a dog.
Final score on the Pyrite Play: LT 42 - N Tex 31, an easy cover for LT.
These are 13-26 now. Fool's Gold indeed.
As for the 6-1 play I said I'd share if a Lurker stepped up out of the shadows, here it is:
I'm using two systems in college football this season, with some sub-set systems within them.
I noticed that sometimes the same game is active in both systems, and I checked the record to see if there was anything there that could help isolate a high % play over the final weeks. Here's what I found:
When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1.
When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, the Under is 1-0.
Both those stats make sense since the Under is kicking ass in the New Play.
When Play #1 says take the Under and the New Play says take the Over, the Under is 3-0.
That's a bit odd, since Unders in Play #1 are just below .500.
Here's where it gets interesting.
When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 6-1, 85%.
I hope we get a few more of those.
My point in posting these numbers is not just to share info, but, if anyone out there is new to wagering, and is learning to handicap, I hope this gives you thoughts on how to look at numbers differently, and isolate winning situations that give you an edge.
Tonight's gave is active as an Over in Play #1 (31-22 record.)
A few houses opened at 54', and at that number it would qualify as an Under in the New Play, but it's dropped down to 51' today and no longer fits. No buy for me. I'm going to run tomorrow's cards through my stats/scenarios, see if I get any New Plays for tomorrow. Will do an update when I'm done.
As for Reverse Line Movement, I don't believe in them, and will offer my facts in a separate thread. I'd like someone to take counterpoint when I make my point on this (and "SHARP $$$ PLAYS!"), and suspect many will jump in, maybe you'll add to the discussion with your POV. I think the forum is at its best when opposite opinions are offered, making points for both sides of a debate (or which team to bet on), allowing readers to make an informed decision.
Hopefully that post will stay constructive and informative and not digress (believers tend to get heated when their beliefs are challenged.) Fair warning to all believers - I come equipped with facts, not theory or opinion (or, more relative, what you'd like to believe is true.)
Some updates from yesterday:
"AF game comes close, and if the line moves enough in the right direction it might qualify as an Under."
Last I checked, late afternoon, the total was 50'/51 across the board, needed to get to 51' to qualify as an Under for the New Play. I went to buy the game and saw 51, so I didn't post as it was a 1/2 pt short.
This morning, I check results and see two sites list the closing # at 51'. I guess it went up a little right before kickoff. Next time, I'll post the # it has to hit to qualify in case anyone is interested in buying it.
"Not a buy recommendation (but check the record on these plays), but I'm taking a live in-game bet if I can get a good # on LT.
Update:
Damn it, LT just put up 7, now I have to lay 6' instead of pick or -1.
I'm not doing it, maybe N Tex can tie it up and I can get the original line. "
I missed the start of the game and didn't post, but made up for it with this late info, as N Tex DID tie it up, and the # was available at -1'. N Tex even went up 14-7 and you could have gotten LT as a dog.
Final score on the Pyrite Play: LT 42 - N Tex 31, an easy cover for LT.
These are 13-26 now. Fool's Gold indeed.
As for the 6-1 play I said I'd share if a Lurker stepped up out of the shadows, here it is:
I'm using two systems in college football this season, with some sub-set systems within them.
I noticed that sometimes the same game is active in both systems, and I checked the record to see if there was anything there that could help isolate a high % play over the final weeks. Here's what I found:
When Play #1 and the New Play both say take the Under, the record is 4-1.
When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, the Under is 1-0.
Both those stats make sense since the Under is kicking ass in the New Play.
When Play #1 says take the Under and the New Play says take the Over, the Under is 3-0.
That's a bit odd, since Unders in Play #1 are just below .500.
Here's where it gets interesting.
When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 6-1, 85%.
I hope we get a few more of those.
My point in posting these numbers is not just to share info, but, if anyone out there is new to wagering, and is learning to handicap, I hope this gives you thoughts on how to look at numbers differently, and isolate winning situations that give you an edge.
Tonight's gave is active as an Over in Play #1 (31-22 record.)
A few houses opened at 54', and at that number it would qualify as an Under in the New Play, but it's dropped down to 51' today and no longer fits. No buy for me. I'm going to run tomorrow's cards through my stats/scenarios, see if I get any New Plays for tomorrow. Will do an update when I'm done.
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Longhorn, thanks for the compliments. My plays are always placed under "Buys," easy to spot.
It's "not too much to ask" but I don't use bold for a couple of reasons, none of them probably any good, but reasons none the less. I'll give it a try, but not this week.
Normally when running games through my scenarios, I root for there to be plays.
Today, there may be too many? (I like things to run smoothly, uniformly, the same way. I'm very superstitious, see statement above for example, on not using bold for plays.)
Highest all year was 11 plays, there are 15 this week.
A lot of these were close and I expect some will drop off tomorrow and no longer qualify as plays.
Hopefully I'll get an add-on game or two, they have a good record.
The New Play:
Overs in Rutgers (Hooray for Piscataway), Rice, Texas, Tulane, Indy, NC St, Az, V Tech, S Car.
Unders in Nebraska, Troy, Ark St, BYU, Hawaii, Cal.
No buys for me yet.
It's "not too much to ask" but I don't use bold for a couple of reasons, none of them probably any good, but reasons none the less. I'll give it a try, but not this week.
Normally when running games through my scenarios, I root for there to be plays.
Today, there may be too many? (I like things to run smoothly, uniformly, the same way. I'm very superstitious, see statement above for example, on not using bold for plays.)
Highest all year was 11 plays, there are 15 this week.
A lot of these were close and I expect some will drop off tomorrow and no longer qualify as plays.
Hopefully I'll get an add-on game or two, they have a good record.
The New Play:
Overs in Rutgers (Hooray for Piscataway), Rice, Texas, Tulane, Indy, NC St, Az, V Tech, S Car.
Unders in Nebraska, Troy, Ark St, BYU, Hawaii, Cal.
No buys for me yet.
Just got done we running the numbers for the New Play.
Not only are there no eliminations, two more plays have been added.
Overs in Rutgers (Hooray for Piscataway), Rice, Texas, Tulane, Indy, NC St, Az, V Tech, S Car, W Virg, UCLA.
Unders in Nebraska, Troy, Ark St, BYU, Hawaii, Cal.
That's more plays than it's ever kicked out before, I don't know what to make of it so tread lightly today.
Pyrite: Penn St, Wisc, Ball St, W Virg, G Tech, San Jose St, Cal, Col St.
Buys:
Memphis/Tulane Ov 63'
Purdue Un 64
Update: I have to add a buy.
From yesterday's post...
"When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 6-1."
(Samson, what can I say. "The best laid plans of mice and men sometimes . . .")
Buys:
Memphis/Tulane Ov 63'
Purdue Un 64
See update above. Ov 48
Not only are there no eliminations, two more plays have been added.
Overs in Rutgers (Hooray for Piscataway), Rice, Texas, Tulane, Indy, NC St, Az, V Tech, S Car, W Virg, UCLA.
Unders in Nebraska, Troy, Ark St, BYU, Hawaii, Cal.
That's more plays than it's ever kicked out before, I don't know what to make of it so tread lightly today.
Pyrite: Penn St, Wisc, Ball St, W Virg, G Tech, San Jose St, Cal, Col St.
Buys:
Memphis/Tulane Ov 63'
Purdue Un 64
Update: I have to add a buy.
From yesterday's post...
"When Play #1 says take the Over and the New Play says take the Over too, the record is 6-1."
(Samson, what can I say. "The best laid plans of mice and men sometimes . . .")
Buys:
Memphis/Tulane Ov 63'
Purdue Un 64
See update above. Ov 48
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