College Football buys for 2020

[RBD]

Recap: Split Friday, 1-1. Saturday, missed NC teaz by 1pt, bad buy, missed a W because I bought it too late in the week. Ok St up 10 right now, looking good.

Here are the rest of my buys:
LSU Ov 54'
Haw Un 65'
Mia Ov 47 using the last teaser I have,
Mich -3
SMU -1

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-3-1 Saturday, no help from a Push and 1 pt loss due to a bad buy on my part.
I have enough data accumulated at this point to make a profit, need to use it properly this week.
Record 16-17.

No help from systems, dropping Play #2, just focusing on Play #1 but at 18-21 (Ov 11-13, Un 7-8) it's not much help either.

Back with buys when I finish 'capping.

 

[RBD]

Here are the games that qualify for Play #1 this week (Ov 11-13, Un 7-8):

Haw/Wyoming Ov 58/60
Tx SA/Fla Atl Ov 47'
Temple/Tulane Un 62'/61'
Ark/Tex A&M Ov 56'/55'
LA Laf/Tex St Ov 55'
N Car/Virg Un 59'/61'
W Forest/Syr Un 57'/58'
CC/Geo St Un 62'/61'
UCF/Hou Un 78'/81'
V Tech/Louisville Un 64'/65'
Ok/Tex Tech Un 65'/68'


A few notes.

Every week, I get two or three Unders, this week I have a plethora of them, with seven spots available.
("Do you know what a plethora is, Pepe?")

Unders in this system have made money consistently for me over the past 15 years or so, but as I said going into this season, I have no idea how they will perform this year because of all the changes in play due to Covid: no fans, schedule changes, different match-ups/unfamiliar opponents, limited practices, delayed starts, cancellations, etc.

They sit at 7-8 for the year. This week will go a long way towards determining if they have a profitable season or not.

First, I'm going to look at each of the games and see if any of the teams have been in this spot earlier this season, and if so, was it a W or L?

Next, I'll match the totals against computer generated outcomes and see if any of these spots qualify as a play based on how those models do at predicting Overs and Unders.
The ideal spot I'm looking for is where one model says take the Over (a great fade at 78%) and the other says take the Under (a 69% play.) <-Update on this, two games fit, Tx St & W Forest; WILL BUY BOTH; Syr # is going higher, Tx St # seems flat, will wait on both, hoping to get a better #.

I'll be back with any games I buy.
For now, one early buy as I like the match-up and think the # will go up as we move closer to Saturday.

Buys:
Ohio St -12'

Update, Wed morning:
I checked the record of this week's teams that have been in Play #1 earlier this season.
Haw Un 1-0

Tex SA Ov 0-1/Fla Atl Ov 0-1

Ark Un Ov 0-1, Un 1-0/Tx A&M Ov 0-1

LA Laf Un 1-1/Tx St Un 0-1

N CarUn 1-1/Virg Un 1-2

WF Ov 1-1/Syr Un 0-1

Louisville Un 0-1

Mixed results, nothing that gives me a strong lean.

Haw is 1-0, but that was in an Under, they're in an Over spot this week. Fade?

Tx SA and Fla Atl have each been in an Over, and both lost. This would normally give me a lean to fading them this week but both those losses came in games with much higher #'s than the low # of 47' on this one. Pass.

The other matchups have teams with W's and L's, so no pattern to try to take advantage of there.

Of the two spots I said I will definitely buy, there's been no movement on Tx St, while the Wake game went up a hook, so I'll continue to hold off on buying for now.

I guessed wrong on the game I bought early, Ohio St -12', thought it more likely to go to 13 than 12, but it dropped to 11' across the board. No worries as games don't usually land on 12, so not much diff between 11' and 12', each usually needs 13 to win.

Thursday update:
Tulsa -10 (2 team teaz, 7 pts, 13/10) second spot open.

 

[RBD]

I've been working hard trying to isolate a play with a high W or L % that I can use.
May have something. It has 11 spots this week (Over in W Virg, Coastal, Tulane, Baylor, UAB, S Jose St & Utah St; Under in Purdue, Hou, 'Bama & Ohio St.)

I played two of the Overs, the K St/W Virg game and Temp/Tulane.
Taking Temp/Tulane Over means going against Play #1, which calls for the game to go Under, but as that play has been under-performing, I'll take my chances with the new play, especially since Temp/Tulane grades out as the strongest of all 11 spots.

Not playing the Baylor game as Baylor was in the same spot last week and it stayed Under for a loss.

Unders have a higher W%. Already bought the Purdue and 'Bama games, I'll buy the other two spots also.
This means taking the worst kind of Under - a game where you have two fast-pace, high-scoring offenses in UCF & Hou. Even though the # is high, this is the kind of game that will not be fun to watch with $ on the Under because it could approach 100 if they're both hitting on all cylinders.
Waiting on the buy for both Ohio St and Hou games as the # is moving in my favor.

On the other two games I was waiting on, Wake has hit 60 so I picked up 2' by waiting; bought it today in case a buy-back comes from middle-hunters who bet Over 57'. No buy yet on La Laff/Tex St.

Update: Board split with 64/64' on Ohio State, doesn't look like it'll hit 65 so I'm buying it now.

Update: Grabbed Un 82 in UCF/Hou

Buys:
Ohio St - 12'
Tulsa -10 (2 team teaz, 7 pts, 13/10) second spot open
K St/W Virg Ov 45'
Temp/Tulane Ov 59
Purdue/Illinois Un 59
Miss St/'Bama Un 64
W Forest/Syr Un 60
Penn St/Ohio St Un 64'
UCF/Hou Un 82

 

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with Tulsa last night, no rhythm on offense, too many bad passes and drop balls in the first half left me short at the end of the game.

Added:
Here's the matchup: a record of 25-6 vs a record of 6-9, laying 3 pts with the 25-6.
Who YOU gonna take?

Records aside, I'll lay 3 with Heupel vs Holgerson seven days a week and twice on Sunday.

Buys:
Ohio St - 12'
K St/W Virg Ov 45'
Temp/Tulane Ov 59
Purdue/Illinois Un 59
Miss St/'Bama Un 64
W Forest/Syr Un 60
Penn St/Ohio St Un 64'
UCF/Hou Un 82
UCF -3

 

[RBD]

Update: I've been recommending waiting to buy the last game I intended to buy today, La Laff/Tex St Un. But after hitting with UCF & the Under, I'm sitting at 5-1 on the day, with three games left, so I'm not going to buy it.

I'm looking at a worst-case day of 5-4, and the number one goal of any day is to not lose money (since most betters do.)
Number two goal is to finish on the plus side, and at 5-4 I'll do that.
Only need to win one of the final three to finish 6-3, which is the Grail I seek, 67%.
I like my position, so no more buys for the day.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 8-1 on Saturday.
Record 24-19.

Play #1 went 6-5; Ov 2-2, Un 4-3.
Season now 24-26. Ov 13-15, Un 11-11.
I only used two of these, the Wake & Hou games Under; good choices as both won.
I faded Temp Un and took it Over because of the new play I used, bad move as they only scored 3 pts.

The new system play, from Friday's post:
"I've been working hard trying to isolate a play with a high W or L % that I can use.
May have something. It has 11 spots this week (Over in W Virg, Coastal, Tulane, Baylor, UAB, S Jose St & Utah St; Under in Purdue, Hou, 'Bama & Ohio St.)"

The new play goes 10-1.
I bought all four Unders and they went 4-0.
I bought two Overs and they split, 1-1.
Anyone take a chance on any of them?

Only tracked this new play for two weeks, it's something I just recently thought of trying.
Overs were just 6-5 last week. I mentioned "Unders have a higher W %" in the Friday post.
What I didn't mention is that they were 4-0 last week, and had a W with Geo South on Friday night, which is why I bought all four Saturday spots.
That W % will not continue, obviously, but I'll be using all of them this week.

Final note - sometimes you press, sometimes you say, "No need to get greedy." With a 5-1 day in pocket, and three plays left, including two Unders ('Bama & Ohio St) which were 7-0 at that point, I decided to not get greedy and buy the LA Laff game Under. It wasn't from the new play, the 7-0 spot, so I stayed off it.
Good move, it sailed Over.

I said last week, "I have enough data accumulated at this point of the season to make a profit, need to use it properly this week." Worked out okay this past weekend. Hope the math holds up this week. With MACtion and Pac Ten kicking in, it adds a a new dimension, one I have no data accumulated on, so I'll be careful using those.

Back with Play #1 stuff asap.
The new play can't use opening numbers, so it will be done on Friday, same as last week.

Tuesday update: As if the record on Unders in Play #1 isn't enough to tell me that the changes due to Covid are having a negative effect on the plays, there's now this - 17 games qualify this week.
This play avg's 8-9 games per week.
I went back ten years and cannot find a single week with this many games.
The highest was 2012, when one week had 14 games.
Something is off with the data.

This weeks spots:
Overs on Wyoming/Col St, Mich St/Iowa, Troy Geo South, App St/Tex St, Vandy Miss St, Baylor/Iowa St, Clem/N Dame, Fresno St/UNLV, Ok St/Kan St, Wash/Cal
Unders on Buff/N Ill, Ohio/C Mich, Minn/Ill, Louisville/Virg, Mich/Indiana, Charl/Mid Ten St, Fla Int/UTEP.

With this many games qualifying, I don't even know how to approach the week.
It's a mishmosh of teams and stats, hard to focus on anything and isolate spots to buy.
I guess I'll approach it like a race card - look for horses to eliminate, then choose from the rest.

 

[RBD]

I want to see at least one lurker step up and post something/add to the conversation this week.
A question, a "Hello," or even a "You give too much analysis and it gives me a headache" note.

Anyway . . .

Two games tonight fit the New Play I started posting last week: E Mich/Kent St Un 65' and Ball St/Miami-Oh Un 56. BUT . . . as noted, since I have no data on MAC and Pac 10 I'm not sure what to do with them.

I checked my logbook and saw that every team in this system since I started tracking it two weeks ago had at least one game played. I think that should be a parameter of the play ("Must have at least one game played") so these won't count. Out of curiosity, I'll track them separately, there may be more on Saturday and maybe I'll learn something useful tonight that can be used in the future.

There are also two Unders from Play #1 active tonight, the Biff and Chippewa games (see post above this one for records on Play #1 and the New Play.)

No buys yet.

 

[yanno]

Hi. I do check in with you frequently but have not yet been able/had the time to figure out what your systems, angles, methods of attack, are, e.g. New Play, Play #1, etc. If only there was a single place I could read up on this, like in your tag line space, or even a post which you link to in your tag line, then I would gladly inform myself.

BUT...I have really enjoyed some of the stories you have, like that one about the guy who thought you had a direct line to the coach of some team and secretly called him to change the game, all so you could take his hundred buck$. That was hilarious! :mj07:

And oh yeah, I really do admire some athletes who have taken a stand for social justice, how many of us have ever done that in our lives, especially risking a well paying career? So here I beg to offer a different perspective. See, I have read a lot of the things you write, and enjoy them.

Good luck and keep on keeping on. :0074

I want to see at least one lurker step up this week and post something/add to the conversation this week.
A question, a "Hello," or even a "You give too much analysis and it gives me a headache" note.

 

[Palmetto Pimp]

Hello

 

[RBD]

Thanks for the replies.
Here's the thing - if no one is interested, there's no sense taking time to post.
Yesterday I saw the # of views and thought, there's a lot of views, so there is some interest, but little response.

I have a good life, blessed in many ways, so I like to give back in different ways (by "giving back" I'm not referring to posting in a forum, though posting to help newbies is a main motivator for me.)
I'm not a fan of takers - people who just look to take, take, take and never contribute anything.
No one has to reply of course, but once in a while it's nice to know someone is interested.
As I said, a simple "Hello" is nice to see from time to time, let's me know it's worth the time taken to contribute here.

Yanno - you asked "how many of us have ever done that in our lives, especially risking a well paying career?"
When I was in my mid-thirties I walked away from a job paying just over 100k per year. I was with one of the biggest corporations in the word. They treated me very well but were horrible to others, so, I walked.
Everyone said I was crazy. My mother said, "No, that sounds like him."

As for social justice warriors - if you have time and inclination, read some of Jason Whitlock's stuff, or Larry Elders for a different point of view. Be well-rounded and informed, then take your position, WHICHEVER side, and stand by it.

As for stories, I have a story from this past weekend about a guy who fell for the "reverse line movement" "the sharps are on team X" BS.
I was going to tell it here but I know it will invite controversy ("There are none so blind as those who will not see") and I don't like negativity in the post where I give my buys (bad karma) so I'll probably do it in a separate thread.
I don't mind someone disagreeing with a play I make, or posting alternate reasons for making/not making a play, in fact - I welcome it. I sometimes miss things, and appreciate alternative takes on a play. That's not negativity - that's sharing information.
And that's what posting is all about, yes?
(Which is why I asked to see a little participation yesterday.)

Again, thanks Yanno and Pimp for stopping in to say "Hello."


Sooooo, first games in the MAC last night - what did we see, and can we use it for the first games in the Pac 10 on Saturday?
Overs 4, Unders 2; Favs 4-2
Likely irrelevant, no correlation, but something to think about - with 4 of 6 going Over, are the offenses ahead of the defenses?
Maybe, maybe not; too small a data sample.

Both spots on the Under in Play #1 lost last night, so laying off them was a good move.
Not as good as fading them would have been, but I did that last Saturday and it was my only loss, so, "Once bitten,"etc.

At 11-13 these Under plays are worthless; no edge to be used.
Though I did discover something useful yesterday.
To qualify as an Under in Play #1, both teams must hit on a certain number of parameters.
While looking at my charts, seeking something usable as the season progresses, I found that when one of the two teams meets the bare minimum to qualify the plays were 3-9.
Last night, Ohio had the minimum to qualify as an Under, and . . . the play lost. 3-10 now.
Of the Unders that are left on the card, Minn, Mich, and UTEP all met the bare minimum to qualify.
Will I fade them and take the Over? Maybe. But I definitely will not play them Under.

No buys tonight.

 

[Trucker Gambler]

I love reading your posts and last night I will add to your comments 4-2 to the over but......one of those games had 3 defensive touchdowns to make that result an over.
I enjoy your insight and your right not everyone has to agree or tail you but all info is good info

Thanks for what you do

 

[RBD]

Good point, Trucker.
I missed that; did a lot of channel flipping between games, mostly between C. Mich and the Toledo games, had no action on the Buf game so I didn't watch it, didn't catch the three TD's by the D.
Just looked it up - FOUR fumbles by N Ill? The INT I can see, but FOUR fumbles?
AND . . . 46 and 42 yard scoop and scores, PLUS a 65 yard INT return??!!
Sounds like they need a Metcalf on their team (somebody will get that reference, right?)

One of the other Overs, the C Mich game, was actually an Under if you bought it early in the week, and only Over by 1-2 points if you bought it late. So the edge to Overs is a bit of a mirage.

I had the C Mich spot in my pocket for some TV rooting interest, because of the "bare minimum to qualify" thing I wrote about in the post above. With 21 in the first quarter, and 40 at the half, you'd think it would be an easy W. But, in college ball, "It ain't over until it's over" as Yogi would say (or Lenny.)

Thanks for stopping by . . .


Update - Forgot to post a game I bought yesterday.
BYU is in the same spot as the one I used Ohio St in last week.
I got -3 but the game now has a hook on it at most houses, some at 3 -120, lay the extra ten cents to get the hook off, this one should be close.

 

[jng]

Excellent posts!
Thanks

J

 

[gridman]

Love Your Posts

Love Your Posts

Really enjoy your posts. Guess you could blame me for lack of responses as I normally don't post much. I just feel bad whenever:toast: I chime in with my selections and they lose. Oh well . . . will try to change that. Will start here as I do love Boise State and feel that this will be BYU's first big test plus I am not really sold on Sitake. Leans for now on Miami -10 and San Diego State (strong trends favor SDS whereas believe Brennan is gone after this year if he doesn't have SJS on the plus side; now at 8-29 after 4 years).

GM

 

[RBD]

My request for a lurker or two to stop by isn't about people posting to say they bet with me, or against me.
It's just good to know that someone/anyone finds the posts useful or interesting. Otherwise, why post?
So thank you Jng and Gridman for stopping by to say "hi."

Back to this weekend's card.
I posted yesterday that BYU is in the same situational play I used with Ohio St last week.
It's also the same spot I used here two weeks ago for SMU & Mich.
There were four spots that week, Mich, Ok St, SMU and N Car.
It went 3-1 (SMU lost to Cincy.)

It hit with Ohio St last week.

There are four spots this weekend: BYU, Mich, Georgia, and Clemson.

I think it's at 14-2 right now so it's due to level out, but Mich already paid out once for me on this so I'll ride with them again. All the -3 are gone, -3' is the common number today.
Harbaugh is near the top of my "Least Favorite Coaches I Like to Bet On" list. It would be just like him to win by a FG and cost Wolverine backers a loss by the hook, so I'm teasing it, leaving the second spot open, maybe use it on Geo or Clemson, the other two spots in this play.

Update: I'm done 'capping the New Play I started tracking last week.
Overs in Temp, E Car, and Tex.
Unders in Ark St and Tex A&M.


Buys:
BYU -3 -120
Mich +3, two team 6' pt teaser

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD,

I check in all the time to see what you have cooking.... So please don't think your time isn't valued.

Time is the only thing we never get enough of...so when someone takes the time to post their thoughts, plays, systems its worth looking at.

One way or another we all have value at this site so that is why its worth my time to look at.

KEEP UP THE GREAT THREAD

Coach Woody

 

[BadAngel]

RBD, don't stop posting ,you always give a lot of good insights. A lot of people read and don't post things in a thread. Putting up in depth stuff is good. I respect you for that and for taking the time to do it.

BA

 

[ldabdou]

RBD, don't stop posting ,you always give a lot of good insights. A lot of people read and don't post things in a thread. Putting up in depth stuff is good. I respect you for that and for taking the time to do it.

BA

This

 

[RBD]

Thanks for stopping by and contributing, Coach, Bad Angel & Idabdou.

I'm not going anywhere. I'll post if even just one person finds my stuff helpful. I'm altruistic by nature. Just felt like guilting a lurker into stepping up instead of just reading and leaving.

Recap: Got a W with BYU last night.
Obviously a win is always a good thing, but it was kind of a letdown. I was looking forward to watching a tight back and forth battle to see if I won the chess match against the book by capping it correctly.
But Boise St lost their quarterback early in the game and was forced to bring in a third string freshman, so the game turned into a blow out.

I re-ran the numbers this morning and based on line changes there are two more plays in the New System. Here's the full card:
Overs in Temp, E Car, and Tex.
Unders in Ark St, Tex A&M, S Fla, and BC.

The S Fla and BC games also fit another system I track, so that, combined with the record on Unders in this new play, has me looking closely at them.

Problem with the new system plays is five of the seven go off at 9am, leaving me no time to see how they're performing today so I can make decisions on later games.

I'll be back with some more buys later.

Good luck to all the Mad Jackers today.


Update:
Buys:
Mich +3, two team 6' pt teaser
Mem/S Fla Un 67
W Virg/Tex Ov 55
UL Laf/Ark St Un 68