College Football buys for 2020
- Thread starter RBD
- Start date
I'm not going anywhere, Guy, thanks.
Looks like the New Play will take its first loss on an Under with Memphis, but I'm going to try one more spot.
Adding BC/Syr Un 54.
Looks like the New Play will take its first loss on an Under with Memphis, but I'm going to try one more spot.
Adding BC/Syr Un 54.
Recap: I screwed up.
Got lucky on Ark State game. Had under 68.
With 40 scored at halftime I was ready to write it off as an L.
But got a 10-point third quarter.
Two touchdowns and a field goal in the fourth quarter couldn't hurt me, I'd still win by a point. And that's what happened.
17 points were scored and I won by a pt.
Sort of.
Here's the screw up - I posted it here at 67, a typo.
The number was 68 all across the board, even had a few 68' available. I write a lot of numbers stuff, I make mistakes.
I'll take a push here, but in my log book it's going in as a win.
Anybody buy it? What number did you get?
And speaking of the New Play:
From previous posts on it:
"I've been working hard trying to isolate a play with a high W or L % that I can use. May have something. It has 11 spots this week (Over in W Virg, Coastal, Tulane, Baylor, UAB, S Jose St & Utah St; Under in Purdue, Hou, 'Bama & Ohio St.")
Then:
"I bought all four Unders and they went 4-0."
And:
"I mentioned "Unders have a higher W %" in the Friday post.
What I didn't mention is that they were 4-0 last week, and had a W with Geo South on Friday night, which is why I bought all four Saturday spots."
And this morning:
Unders in Ark St, Tex A&M, S Fla, and BC.
Pop quiz: What's the record on Unders now?
Seven of the thirteen were posted as buys here.
I hope we get a few of these next week...
Got lucky on Ark State game. Had under 68.
With 40 scored at halftime I was ready to write it off as an L.
But got a 10-point third quarter.
Two touchdowns and a field goal in the fourth quarter couldn't hurt me, I'd still win by a point. And that's what happened.
17 points were scored and I won by a pt.
Sort of.
Here's the screw up - I posted it here at 67, a typo.
The number was 68 all across the board, even had a few 68' available. I write a lot of numbers stuff, I make mistakes.
I'll take a push here, but in my log book it's going in as a win.
Anybody buy it? What number did you get?
And speaking of the New Play:
From previous posts on it:
"I've been working hard trying to isolate a play with a high W or L % that I can use. May have something. It has 11 spots this week (Over in W Virg, Coastal, Tulane, Baylor, UAB, S Jose St & Utah St; Under in Purdue, Hou, 'Bama & Ohio St.")
Then:
"I bought all four Unders and they went 4-0."
And:
"I mentioned "Unders have a higher W %" in the Friday post.
What I didn't mention is that they were 4-0 last week, and had a W with Geo South on Friday night, which is why I bought all four Saturday spots."
And this morning:
Unders in Ark St, Tex A&M, S Fla, and BC.
Pop quiz: What's the record on Unders now?
Seven of the thirteen were posted as buys here.
I hope we get a few of these next week...
Recap: 3-2-1.
(F me for that Push on S Fla. Did ANYBODY buy it, and if so - at what #?)
Record: 27-21
The pop quiz question from Saturday: "What is the record on Unders in the New Play now?"
The answer: 12-0.
"4-0 last week, and had a W with Geo South on Friday" = 5-0.
With 5-0 charted in my log book, I thought it was time to share the plays here and recommend some buys,
and I did with the next four spots: "I bought all four Unders and they went 4-0."
Record: 9-0.
That brought us up to this week: Unders in Ark St, Tex A&M, S Fla, and BC.
Of those four, three were early games, all posted as buys.
All three won (though one was recorded as a Push here, as I described above.)
So, the record when I posted the question was 12-0.
With one spot left later that day: Tex A&M/SC.
The pop quiz was to bring attention to the play that was still open in case anyone was looking for something to bet on. The total was 58. A&M held SC scoreless at 41-0 until the Gamecocks kicked a shutout busting FG with just 5 minutes left in the game. As paybacks, Tex A&M, instead of running out the clock, punched through one last TD at the one minute mark. Game landed on 51, a full TD Under the total.
13-0 now. (And Overs aren't too bad either, at 13-8.)
Looking forward to this week's spots.
Play # 1 was the same as it's been all season: 6-7, Overs at 5-4, Unders at 1-3.
Season: 30-33; 18-19 Over, 12-14 Under.
Vastly under-performing based on past seasons (though, strangely, doing very well in NFL.)
Hovering around .500 means I can't use them as buys.
Despite missing my best system, I'm still in the black for the season, so I have no complaints.
Will do a full accounting this week or next, including juice, to check my record on sides, totals, etc to see if there is anything I can use over the final weeks of the season.
Spots for Play #1 will be up later today or tomorrow.
The New Play (I have to get a better name for it) can only be posted the day before or day of the games.
Will ride every Under until it loses.
(F me for that Push on S Fla. Did ANYBODY buy it, and if so - at what #?)
Record: 27-21
The pop quiz question from Saturday: "What is the record on Unders in the New Play now?"
The answer: 12-0.
"4-0 last week, and had a W with Geo South on Friday" = 5-0.
With 5-0 charted in my log book, I thought it was time to share the plays here and recommend some buys,
and I did with the next four spots: "I bought all four Unders and they went 4-0."
Record: 9-0.
That brought us up to this week: Unders in Ark St, Tex A&M, S Fla, and BC.
Of those four, three were early games, all posted as buys.
All three won (though one was recorded as a Push here, as I described above.)
So, the record when I posted the question was 12-0.
With one spot left later that day: Tex A&M/SC.
The pop quiz was to bring attention to the play that was still open in case anyone was looking for something to bet on. The total was 58. A&M held SC scoreless at 41-0 until the Gamecocks kicked a shutout busting FG with just 5 minutes left in the game. As paybacks, Tex A&M, instead of running out the clock, punched through one last TD at the one minute mark. Game landed on 51, a full TD Under the total.
13-0 now. (And Overs aren't too bad either, at 13-8.)
Looking forward to this week's spots.
Play # 1 was the same as it's been all season: 6-7, Overs at 5-4, Unders at 1-3.
Season: 30-33; 18-19 Over, 12-14 Under.
Vastly under-performing based on past seasons (though, strangely, doing very well in NFL.)
Hovering around .500 means I can't use them as buys.
Despite missing my best system, I'm still in the black for the season, so I have no complaints.
Will do a full accounting this week or next, including juice, to check my record on sides, totals, etc to see if there is anything I can use over the final weeks of the season.
Spots for Play #1 will be up later today or tomorrow.
The New Play (I have to get a better name for it) can only be posted the day before or day of the games.
Will ride every Under until it loses.
Play #1:
Overs: Kent St/B Green, Col St/Boise St, Army/Tulane, B Dame/BC, Georgia/Missouri, S Ala/LA Laff, Tex A&M/Tenn, Tex St/Geo South, S Miss/W Kent, Aub/Miss St
Unders: Akron/Ohio, E Mich/Ball St, USF/Hou, Louisville/Virg, 'Bama/LSU, UNLV/San Jose St, Ore/Wash St.
Ugh. Just like last week, a mess of plays, I don't know what to make of it all.
It's kicking out more spots than any previous year; between that and the record, I don't trust the plays.
No buys yet.
Update: The New Play has one spot tonight, Ak/Ohio Un.
The # is 59' and climbing.
The Under here also fits Play #1, which has been sub-par at 12-14.
And it conflicts with another thing I track. From last week:
"While looking at my charts I found that when one of the two teams meets the bare minimum to qualify (as Unders in Play #1) the plays were 3-9. Last night, Ohio had the minimum to qualify as an Under, and . . . the play lost. 3-10 now.
Of the Unders that are left on the card, Minn, Mich, and UTEP all met the bare minimum to qualify.
Will I fade them and take the Over? Maybe. But I definitely will not play them Under."
Of those other three plays, UTEP was cancelled, Min stayed Under and Minn went Over.
Plays with only one qualifier are now 4-11 on Unders. And tonight - Akron only has one qualifier.
So I'm looking at a game that is:
13-0 New System
12-14 Play #1
4-11 when only one qualifier
What to do, what to do?
Update: From post on 10/27:
"The ideal spot I'm looking for is where one model says take the Over (a great fade at 78%) and the other says take the Under (a 69% play.) <-Update on this, two games fit, Tx St & W Forest; WILL BUY BOTH."
Both those buys, Tx St game and W Forest game, won.
Tonight's game is in the same situation as those, one model says Over, the other says Under.
Updated % on those models after last week's games:
Fade the Over is 78%; same as last time I charted.
Buy the Under is at 68%.
So I now have two situations that strongly say take the Under here: the "ideal spot" I just detailed above, and the New Play. I have to ride that new spot until it loses one, eh?
I'm buying it. Wait though, see if it keeps rising and 60 becomes available.
Update, 3 pm (PST): Only see one 60 out there, not sure I'll see more, will wait a little longer before buying 59', will update with whatever I get.
Buys:
Akron/Ohio Un 59'
Overs: Kent St/B Green, Col St/Boise St, Army/Tulane, B Dame/BC, Georgia/Missouri, S Ala/LA Laff, Tex A&M/Tenn, Tex St/Geo South, S Miss/W Kent, Aub/Miss St
Unders: Akron/Ohio, E Mich/Ball St, USF/Hou, Louisville/Virg, 'Bama/LSU, UNLV/San Jose St, Ore/Wash St.
Ugh. Just like last week, a mess of plays, I don't know what to make of it all.
It's kicking out more spots than any previous year; between that and the record, I don't trust the plays.
No buys yet.
Update: The New Play has one spot tonight, Ak/Ohio Un.
The # is 59' and climbing.
The Under here also fits Play #1, which has been sub-par at 12-14.
And it conflicts with another thing I track. From last week:
"While looking at my charts I found that when one of the two teams meets the bare minimum to qualify (as Unders in Play #1) the plays were 3-9. Last night, Ohio had the minimum to qualify as an Under, and . . . the play lost. 3-10 now.
Of the Unders that are left on the card, Minn, Mich, and UTEP all met the bare minimum to qualify.
Will I fade them and take the Over? Maybe. But I definitely will not play them Under."
Of those other three plays, UTEP was cancelled, Min stayed Under and Minn went Over.
Plays with only one qualifier are now 4-11 on Unders. And tonight - Akron only has one qualifier.
So I'm looking at a game that is:
13-0 New System
12-14 Play #1
4-11 when only one qualifier
What to do, what to do?
Update: From post on 10/27:
"The ideal spot I'm looking for is where one model says take the Over (a great fade at 78%) and the other says take the Under (a 69% play.) <-Update on this, two games fit, Tx St & W Forest; WILL BUY BOTH."
Both those buys, Tx St game and W Forest game, won.
Tonight's game is in the same situation as those, one model says Over, the other says Under.
Updated % on those models after last week's games:
Fade the Over is 78%; same as last time I charted.
Buy the Under is at 68%.
So I now have two situations that strongly say take the Under here: the "ideal spot" I just detailed above, and the New Play. I have to ride that new spot until it loses one, eh?
I'm buying it. Wait though, see if it keeps rising and 60 becomes available.
Update, 3 pm (PST): Only see one 60 out there, not sure I'll see more, will wait a little longer before buying 59', will update with whatever I get.
Buys:
Akron/Ohio Un 59'
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RBD
Great hit last night. I got the line at 60. But saw it slip so the way to 58.5.
Never in doubt for either number.... Love it when that happens.
Hope we get the play again a few more times this weekend.
Keep it rolling!!!!!
Great hit last night. I got the line at 60. But saw it slip so the way to 58.5.
Never in doubt for either number.... Love it when that happens.
Hope we get the play again a few more times this weekend.
Keep it rolling!!!!!
Thanks Coach and Bigs for dropping by, much appreciated.
Yes, a nice W last night, almost talked myself off of it due to conflicting numbers (specifically the situation that said "games with only one qualifier has a record of 4-11 on Unders") but I learned from a mistake I made when I ventured into trying the NBA this year - I had some systems that were winning but I didn't use them very well.
I wasn't about to let a 13-0 spot go to waste, especially since I banked on the first 9 times it came up (7 posted as buys here) and I was playing on the house's dime.
14-0 now and as it's been averaging 4 spots per week I'm sure we'll get a couple more this week.
"Ride it 'til it bucks you."
Play #1 also won, both spots, 32-33 now, Ov 19-19, Un 13-14.
Not much use at those %'s but I'll track this system for the full year as I have for the past 15 or so, would like to seem them both above .500 by year's end, especially Unders.
Tonight, E. Mich/Ball St is active in Play #1, as an Un.
I'll do an update after I do my mid-day 'capping and post any buys if I have any.
Update: Changed my schedule and finished 'capping early as I thought some may be waiting to see if any New Play spots were active. No, nothing fits the parameters. Only spot active is the one mentioned above, Play #1 Un in E Mich/Ball St.
No recommended buys for me today, just a little TV action fun.
The Over in Play #1 got back to .500 last night, would like to see the Under do the same tonight.
Good luck with your play today . . .
Update: Early buy notice for a Saturday spot, grab a 64 while there are still some left,
this # is dropping and will continue to do so:
S. 'Bama/LA Laf Un 54
Yes, a nice W last night, almost talked myself off of it due to conflicting numbers (specifically the situation that said "games with only one qualifier has a record of 4-11 on Unders") but I learned from a mistake I made when I ventured into trying the NBA this year - I had some systems that were winning but I didn't use them very well.
I wasn't about to let a 13-0 spot go to waste, especially since I banked on the first 9 times it came up (7 posted as buys here) and I was playing on the house's dime.
14-0 now and as it's been averaging 4 spots per week I'm sure we'll get a couple more this week.
"Ride it 'til it bucks you."
Play #1 also won, both spots, 32-33 now, Ov 19-19, Un 13-14.
Not much use at those %'s but I'll track this system for the full year as I have for the past 15 or so, would like to seem them both above .500 by year's end, especially Unders.
Tonight, E. Mich/Ball St is active in Play #1, as an Un.
I'll do an update after I do my mid-day 'capping and post any buys if I have any.
Update: Changed my schedule and finished 'capping early as I thought some may be waiting to see if any New Play spots were active. No, nothing fits the parameters. Only spot active is the one mentioned above, Play #1 Un in E Mich/Ball St.
No recommended buys for me today, just a little TV action fun.
The Over in Play #1 got back to .500 last night, would like to see the Under do the same tonight.
Good luck with your play today . . .
Update: Early buy notice for a Saturday spot, grab a 64 while there are still some left,
this # is dropping and will continue to do so:
S. 'Bama/LA Laf Un 54
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New Play:
Overs in FAU/FIU, APP St/Geo St,
Unders in S. Alabama/La Laf, Louisville/Virg, N'West/Purdue, SMU/Tulsa
Tonight's FAU/FIU fits the New Play (13-8 on Overs.)
And it hits that "ideal spot" I mentioned a couple of times, most recently on Tuesday, re: the Akron/Ohio game.
That game was an Under, matching up a Play Against" fade that hits 78% with a "Play On" that hits at a 68% clip.
For Overs, the numbers are a 70% "Play Against" stat matched up with a 62% "Play On."
Unders have a better %, but not by much.
So I have two systems that say take the Over tonight, and that's what I'll do.
(Other games that also hit the "ideal spot" are La Laf, App St, and Tulsa.)
The common # on FAU right now is 41, but a couple houses have higher juice on the Under,
and a couple have 40', so I'll wait a bit and see if it drops.
Just wanted to post early in case anyone was looking at that game,
I'll be back with the rest of the card after I'm done running all of the games through my parameters, looking for a fit.
Update: All active spots listed above.
I already sent out an early buy notice on S. Alabama/LA Laf.
In FAU/Fla Int, the 40' have mostly disappeared so I don't think the number will go my way, buying now while 41 is all across the board, in case late day Fav & Over loving Joe Public money drives it up.
LA Laf was in this spot on Nov 7 and won.
SMU was in as an Over and won; it's an Under this week.
S. Alabama was in an Under and won on 10/24.
Virginia was in an Over and lost; it's in an Under this week.
Tulsa game seems to be rising, so I'll wait on buying that one.
The board is split right now on Louisville/Virginia, 66' and 66, there's an odd 67 or two out there too, but it seems to be dropping. I think the number is low so I'll wait and monitor it.
Buys:
FAU/Fla Int Ov 41
S. Alabama/La Laf Un 54
Overs in FAU/FIU, APP St/Geo St,
Unders in S. Alabama/La Laf, Louisville/Virg, N'West/Purdue, SMU/Tulsa
Tonight's FAU/FIU fits the New Play (13-8 on Overs.)
And it hits that "ideal spot" I mentioned a couple of times, most recently on Tuesday, re: the Akron/Ohio game.
That game was an Under, matching up a Play Against" fade that hits 78% with a "Play On" that hits at a 68% clip.
For Overs, the numbers are a 70% "Play Against" stat matched up with a 62% "Play On."
Unders have a better %, but not by much.
So I have two systems that say take the Over tonight, and that's what I'll do.
(Other games that also hit the "ideal spot" are La Laf, App St, and Tulsa.)
The common # on FAU right now is 41, but a couple houses have higher juice on the Under,
and a couple have 40', so I'll wait a bit and see if it drops.
Just wanted to post early in case anyone was looking at that game,
I'll be back with the rest of the card after I'm done running all of the games through my parameters, looking for a fit.
Update: All active spots listed above.
I already sent out an early buy notice on S. Alabama/LA Laf.
In FAU/Fla Int, the 40' have mostly disappeared so I don't think the number will go my way, buying now while 41 is all across the board, in case late day Fav & Over loving Joe Public money drives it up.
LA Laf was in this spot on Nov 7 and won.
SMU was in as an Over and won; it's an Under this week.
S. Alabama was in an Under and won on 10/24.
Virginia was in an Over and lost; it's in an Under this week.
Tulsa game seems to be rising, so I'll wait on buying that one.
The board is split right now on Louisville/Virginia, 66' and 66, there's an odd 67 or two out there too, but it seems to be dropping. I think the number is low so I'll wait and monitor it.
Buys:
FAU/Fla Int Ov 41
S. Alabama/La Laf Un 54
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Being dead honest, i haven?t read a word of your threads, but definitely will now. Some interesting stuff in here
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Being dead honest, I find myself a little too "wordy."
Thankfully I'm a good editor or my posts would be just as long and boring as War and Peace.
Thanks for stopping by.
Recap: Got a W with FAU Over.
I just re-ran the numbers for the New Play.
Due to changes in the lines available and my numbers, App St game is dropped because it no longer qualifies (sorry if anyone bought it early.)
Four new plays are added.
Here is the complete listing:
Overs: Overs in Mich St/Ind, Army/Tulane, Geo South/Tex St, Ore St/Wash
Unders in S. Alabama/La Laf, Louisville/Virg, N'West/Purdue, SMU/Tulsa
(Of the added spots, Ind and Geo South games also fit the ideal situation I've mentioned a few times.)
The only buy I have is the early buy notice I sent out on S. Alabama/La Laf.
Will update later...
Thankfully I'm a good editor or my posts would be just as long and boring as War and Peace.
Thanks for stopping by.
Recap: Got a W with FAU Over.
I just re-ran the numbers for the New Play.
Due to changes in the lines available and my numbers, App St game is dropped because it no longer qualifies (sorry if anyone bought it early.)
Four new plays are added.
Here is the complete listing:
Overs: Overs in Mich St/Ind, Army/Tulane, Geo South/Tex St, Ore St/Wash
Unders in S. Alabama/La Laf, Louisville/Virg, N'West/Purdue, SMU/Tulsa
(Of the added spots, Ind and Geo South games also fit the ideal situation I've mentioned a few times.)
The only buy I have is the early buy notice I sent out on S. Alabama/La Laf.
Will update later...
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Replies, Recap, Records, Review, and Rejoicing:
Replies:
Samson, thank you, and you're welcome. Continued success to you also.
Tenpin, thanks for stopping by. With the Tue play on Akron and FAU Friday, it was an 8-1 week for the New Play going into the final spot, Ore St/Wash Over. And that was a bad beat.
Needed Over 51. Had 45 at halftime.
Easy winner, a cinch, sure thing, "The dress is in the bag" (obscure Little Rascal reference there), count those chickens- they're hatched, right?
WRONG!!! It's college, crazy stuff happens.
They had 45 pts in the first half, ZERO going into the final 3-4 minutes of the second half.
I only saw the final 10 minutes of the game, but from what I've heard from pissed-off Over players is Ore St came up short twice, third and goal from the one yard line, and fourth and goal from the one. And on 4th and goal from the one the refs supposedly robbed them of a TD, didn't even review it.
Had they kicked a FG it would have been tied 24-24, guaranteeing a Push or Win in OT.
It would have been a nice way to finish the day, but at 8-2, I have no complaints, eh?
UM Rebel - "How did I effin miss all this?"
I don't know, I've been right here all season. Glad you stopped by...
Recap: Hit on the only buy I gave for Saturday, La Laff Un, making it a 3-0 week.
Still on a nice run in college and pro.
Record: 30-21
Review:
Play #1 went 9-4, Ov 5-2, Un 4-2.
Season now 39-37, Ov 23-21, Un 16-16
Overs pick up a little steam, Unders back to .500, vastly under where they usually are, but still time to get back in black.
Not a lot to use moving forward, but with the New Play doing well I don't need to rely on Play #1.
The New Play went 8-2, 3-2 Ov, 5-0 Un.
Season now 34-10, Ov 16-10, 18-0 Un.
Doing final line checks on Saturday mornings has been a good use of my time.
Saturday added plays are 4-2 (with one of the losses the Wash bad beat) AND it helped improve the overall record as App St was removed due to line changes and it would have been a loss.
The Under is now at 18-0, and of those 18 . . .
the last 13 were shared here.
And there was much rejoicing . . . (not so obscure Monty Python reference)
Back with this week's spots when I'm done 'capping.
Tue morning update:
Not finished running all the games through my scenarios, but I did do Tue and Wed games.
Play # 1: Tol/E Mich Un 58'/61/61'/62
New Play: Tol/E. Mich Un 58'/61/61'/62
No buys for me yet.
Replies:
Samson, thank you, and you're welcome. Continued success to you also.
Tenpin, thanks for stopping by. With the Tue play on Akron and FAU Friday, it was an 8-1 week for the New Play going into the final spot, Ore St/Wash Over. And that was a bad beat.
Needed Over 51. Had 45 at halftime.
Easy winner, a cinch, sure thing, "The dress is in the bag" (obscure Little Rascal reference there), count those chickens- they're hatched, right?
WRONG!!! It's college, crazy stuff happens.
They had 45 pts in the first half, ZERO going into the final 3-4 minutes of the second half.
I only saw the final 10 minutes of the game, but from what I've heard from pissed-off Over players is Ore St came up short twice, third and goal from the one yard line, and fourth and goal from the one. And on 4th and goal from the one the refs supposedly robbed them of a TD, didn't even review it.
Had they kicked a FG it would have been tied 24-24, guaranteeing a Push or Win in OT.
It would have been a nice way to finish the day, but at 8-2, I have no complaints, eh?
UM Rebel - "How did I effin miss all this?"
I don't know, I've been right here all season. Glad you stopped by...
Recap: Hit on the only buy I gave for Saturday, La Laff Un, making it a 3-0 week.
Still on a nice run in college and pro.
Record: 30-21
Review:
Play #1 went 9-4, Ov 5-2, Un 4-2.
Season now 39-37, Ov 23-21, Un 16-16
Overs pick up a little steam, Unders back to .500, vastly under where they usually are, but still time to get back in black.
Not a lot to use moving forward, but with the New Play doing well I don't need to rely on Play #1.
The New Play went 8-2, 3-2 Ov, 5-0 Un.
Season now 34-10, Ov 16-10, 18-0 Un.
Doing final line checks on Saturday mornings has been a good use of my time.
Saturday added plays are 4-2 (with one of the losses the Wash bad beat) AND it helped improve the overall record as App St was removed due to line changes and it would have been a loss.
The Under is now at 18-0, and of those 18 . . .
the last 13 were shared here.
And there was much rejoicing . . . (not so obscure Monty Python reference)
Back with this week's spots when I'm done 'capping.
Tue morning update:
Not finished running all the games through my scenarios, but I did do Tue and Wed games.
Play # 1: Tol/E Mich Un 58'/61/61'/62
New Play: Tol/E. Mich Un 58'/61/61'/62
No buys for me yet.
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Roman, thanks for posting, and yes, I 'll keep 'capping and sharing here all season long.
Of the 18 Unders in the New Play (gotta get a better name for it) I have played every one except the first five. It was 4-0 when I found it while running games through various scenarios.
The fifth spot was the Friday game with G. Southern.
After that one won, I decided it was worth sharing the plays here and playing them.
I don't post every game I play as a buy here, for a couple of reasons.
I have no buys for today, likely won't until Saturday, unless something Thursday or Friday grades out VERY strongly on multiple systems in the various scenarios I use to grade plays.
With the Over hitting in both games yesterday, I would suggest waiting if anyone is buying the Under tonight, I expect the 61/61' will go to 62 or >.
I don't jump on streaks (because of the "Scales of Justice" quote thing) and do not recommend doing so.
But if a player's on the house's dime because he's been buying games during the streak, I would continue to "Ride it until it bucks ya."
Of the 18 Unders in the New Play (gotta get a better name for it) I have played every one except the first five. It was 4-0 when I found it while running games through various scenarios.
The fifth spot was the Friday game with G. Southern.
After that one won, I decided it was worth sharing the plays here and playing them.
I don't post every game I play as a buy here, for a couple of reasons.
I have no buys for today, likely won't until Saturday, unless something Thursday or Friday grades out VERY strongly on multiple systems in the various scenarios I use to grade plays.
With the Over hitting in both games yesterday, I would suggest waiting if anyone is buying the Under tonight, I expect the 61/61' will go to 62 or >.
I don't jump on streaks (because of the "Scales of Justice" quote thing) and do not recommend doing so.
But if a player's on the house's dime because he's been buying games during the streak, I would continue to "Ride it until it bucks ya."
Finished 'capping Play #1 for the week.
After an explosion of plays each of the last two weeks, the system kicked out a more normal number of games. Play #1:
Overs in Geo South/Army, App St/Coastal, Mich St/Maryland, S Diego St/Nev, Miss St/Georgia, Az/Wash
Unders in Syr/Louisville, Clem/Fla St.
With the loss on Tol/E Mich Un last night, Play #1 is 23-21 Ov, 16-17 Un. Not much use.
That loss also ended the 18-0 streak on the New Play.
Got a good first quarter of 7 pts. I didn't see the second and third quarters, got home and the fourth quarter was just starting. Position on the Under was okay, could give up 10 pts and still have a winner; not great, but okay because Toledo had a large lead, so they'd be using the entire play clock and running the ball. Just had to avoid 2 TD's.
In these situations, I break the game into three 5 minute intervals - if I can get out of the first two with the number I need, the last 5 minutes is usually easy/goes quickly.
Almost made it out of the first 5 minutes, BUT . . . E Mich jackazz tosses a pick 6.
Only could give up a FG now, but on E Mich's next possession the refs gifted them with half of the field in penalties, 45 yards. The Under was dead.
And teasers on the Under went down in the final second of the game as E Mich scored a TD with 1 second on the clock. The league is always looking for ways to protect the QB, and I have a suggestion - levy a fine on coaches who offer their QB's up as sacrificial lambs in late game hopeless, no-chance-to-win situations.
At least four times last night's the announcers questioned the coaches decision to keep throwing passes while his QB kept taking a beating. Yes, they scored on the final play, a meaningless TD, and during the drive a player from each time left the field with injuries.
Call the penalty "Excessive Stupidity" or "Senseless Cruelty."
I'll finish 'capping the New Play tomorrow,and will update it on Saturday morning.
Now that the streak has ended proceed carefully, "Law of averages," and all . . .
After an explosion of plays each of the last two weeks, the system kicked out a more normal number of games. Play #1:
Overs in Geo South/Army, App St/Coastal, Mich St/Maryland, S Diego St/Nev, Miss St/Georgia, Az/Wash
Unders in Syr/Louisville, Clem/Fla St.
With the loss on Tol/E Mich Un last night, Play #1 is 23-21 Ov, 16-17 Un. Not much use.
That loss also ended the 18-0 streak on the New Play.
Got a good first quarter of 7 pts. I didn't see the second and third quarters, got home and the fourth quarter was just starting. Position on the Under was okay, could give up 10 pts and still have a winner; not great, but okay because Toledo had a large lead, so they'd be using the entire play clock and running the ball. Just had to avoid 2 TD's.
In these situations, I break the game into three 5 minute intervals - if I can get out of the first two with the number I need, the last 5 minutes is usually easy/goes quickly.
Almost made it out of the first 5 minutes, BUT . . . E Mich jackazz tosses a pick 6.
Only could give up a FG now, but on E Mich's next possession the refs gifted them with half of the field in penalties, 45 yards. The Under was dead.
And teasers on the Under went down in the final second of the game as E Mich scored a TD with 1 second on the clock. The league is always looking for ways to protect the QB, and I have a suggestion - levy a fine on coaches who offer their QB's up as sacrificial lambs in late game hopeless, no-chance-to-win situations.
At least four times last night's the announcers questioned the coaches decision to keep throwing passes while his QB kept taking a beating. Yes, they scored on the final play, a meaningless TD, and during the drive a player from each time left the field with injuries.
Call the penalty "Excessive Stupidity" or "Senseless Cruelty."
I'll finish 'capping the New Play tomorrow,and will update it on Saturday morning.
Now that the streak has ended proceed carefully, "Law of averages," and all . . .
Finished 'capping New System.
Overs in E Car/Temp, Ore St/Cal, Iowa St/ K St, Wash/Az
Unders in UCLA/Ore, USC/Utah, Wash St/Stan.
Temple was in an Over twice, 1-1.
E Car was in an Over and lost.
At a combined 1-2 for these teams in this play, I don't like this spot at all.
Wash and Ore St both qualify as Overs, but after the way they screwed us last week I'm not anxious to give either of them a chance to do it again, though I do like the Wash spot.
Note on Play #1 (games listed in my post above this one.)
In my logbook, I have asterisks next to three games: App St, Clem, and Az.
What I DON'T have is a note at the bottom of the page telling me WHY I put an asterisk next to these three. I think it's because I liked something about them, maybe they fit multiple systems?
I'll spend some time this morning trying to figure it out.
No buys for me yet.
Overs in E Car/Temp, Ore St/Cal, Iowa St/ K St, Wash/Az
Unders in UCLA/Ore, USC/Utah, Wash St/Stan.
Temple was in an Over twice, 1-1.
E Car was in an Over and lost.
At a combined 1-2 for these teams in this play, I don't like this spot at all.
Wash and Ore St both qualify as Overs, but after the way they screwed us last week I'm not anxious to give either of them a chance to do it again, though I do like the Wash spot.
Note on Play #1 (games listed in my post above this one.)
In my logbook, I have asterisks next to three games: App St, Clem, and Az.
What I DON'T have is a note at the bottom of the page telling me WHY I put an asterisk next to these three. I think it's because I liked something about them, maybe they fit multiple systems?
I'll spend some time this morning trying to figure it out.
No buys for me yet.
Update:
Doing my Saturday morning double check on the new system, not finished yet but adding App State/Coastal now because the line is jumping. There are a couple 46', 47, 47', and 48.
I bought Ov 47.
Back when I'm done with the updates.
Buys:
App St/CC OV 47
Update: 47 are all gone now, wasn't enough time between me posting and anyone being able to buy so I'll use 48 to be fair.
Finished re-running the numbers on the New Play. Washington St/Stanford is dropped because it's been canceled, USC/Utah is dropped due to line changes, it no longer qualifies. Damn, hate to give up an Under, especially when it only leaves one left.
Did get some add-ons though:
App St, Army, W Kentucky, and Penn St.
Overs in E Car/Temp, Ore St/Cal, Iowa St/ K St, Wash/Az, App St/CC, Geo South/Army, Fla Int/W. Kentucky, Penn St/Iowa
Under in UCLA/Ore
Buys:
App St/CC Ov 48
Doing my Saturday morning double check on the new system, not finished yet but adding App State/Coastal now because the line is jumping. There are a couple 46', 47, 47', and 48.
I bought Ov 47.
Back when I'm done with the updates.
Buys:
App St/CC OV 47
Update: 47 are all gone now, wasn't enough time between me posting and anyone being able to buy so I'll use 48 to be fair.
Finished re-running the numbers on the New Play. Washington St/Stanford is dropped because it's been canceled, USC/Utah is dropped due to line changes, it no longer qualifies. Damn, hate to give up an Under, especially when it only leaves one left.
Did get some add-ons though:
App St, Army, W Kentucky, and Penn St.
Overs in E Car/Temp, Ore St/Cal, Iowa St/ K St, Wash/Az, App St/CC, Geo South/Army, Fla Int/W. Kentucky, Penn St/Iowa
Under in UCLA/Ore
Buys:
App St/CC Ov 48
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