College Hoops 2020

[RBD]

Got out of week one with a profit at 3-2. Took the weekend off, just not enough hours in the morning to 'cap every sport, and I'm focused on football right now. I did make some time Sunday night to review the weekend games in Kids Ball, and tweaked the system I use to try and get a better yield. What I came up with improved my W % on Unders, but hurt my play on Overs. Time to take it from the charts to the real world to see how it does.

Buys:
GW/MD Balt Un 147

Update #1: I just got 147 at one of the sponsors here, but it's now dropped to 146' there and at most houses, so that's what I'll use since most can't get the 147.
Update #2: The # is now 147 all across the board.


Halftime strategy/commentary:
The Pups of UMBC were shooting over 67% from the field and 60% on 3's with just 6 minutes to go in the first half. Even with GW shooting a lousy %, the trajectory had the game well over 200 before the shooting came back down to earth. At the half, 75 pts scored. The second half # is 78'.
No opportunity for a middle or buy back. Gotta ride it out.


Update:
Buys:
GW/MD Balt Un 147
E Kent/MoreHead Ov 146'
Chat/Ten St Ov 139

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit with Chat Ov, missed with GW Un and Morehead Over.

The MD Balt Retrievers killed my Under, with only 6 minutes left in the game they were STILL hitting over 60% from the field and nearly 50% from three point range.
When I last checked Morehead they were at the half and on a good pace for the Over, got home and was surprised to see it stayed Under. Checked the box score - they had 44 in the first half, just 24 in the second.

Record 4-4.

My charts had 2-2 yesterday, the difference between posted buys here and my log book was FAU.
Late line changes made it qualify as a play. I didn't post it because it was too close to game time.
Today, I'm going to post all plays that qualify. If it comes late, like FAU yesterday, players may still be able to get on it if they'd like, using live-in-game bets or second half if the number is right.

I'll update as much as necessary, as much as I can, throughout the day, as lines move and games become plays or drop off. As always, some I'll buy, some I won't.
Remember - this is new data developing. I don't know if it will be profitable or not.
It's best to be patient, with a wait-and-see attitude.

Overs in N Kent/Dayton, E Tenn St/UNC Ash, GB Phnx/Marquette
Unders in Stetson/S Fla, Col/Tenn, BC/Minn, Bryant/St Francis, Miss Valley St/Memphis.

Adds: Morgan St/Iona Un 150'. Started 10 minutes ago. I saw the late line change too late to buy or post.
Posted/charted for record accuracy and in-game of second half opportunity if the # is right.

Update: E Tenn removed, off the board.


Buys:
Stetson/S Fla Un 130'
N Kent/Dayton Ov 154

 

[Tkj]

RBD, should be 134 on Dayton game?

 

[RBD]

Tkj,
Good catch, thanks. I double-checked all the numbers on the game to make sure it qualifies - it does.
It's charted properly in my log book, just had the wrong # posted here.
There are plenty of 133' out there now if you were thinking of buying it and hadn't already.

Buys:
Stetson/S Fla Un 130'
N Kent/Dayton Ov 134

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2 yesterday.

Stetson was a tight pace going into the final two minutes.
With a 14 pt lead I just needed S Fla to use the entire shot clock, and hope Stetson didn't hit their three's.
In the final minute, Stetson hit 2 three pointers.
But what killed us was the free throws.
With just 40 seconds left both teams committed fouls.
Five free throws were made, the exact margin I lost by.

And this is why I hate Kids Ball - the only thing more ridiculous than fouling with 30 seconds left to go when you're DOWN by 11 points, is fouling with only thirty seconds left when you're UP by 11 pts.
It's great when you're on the Over, but sucks when you're on the Under.
In both situations it's moronic. But - that's Kids Ball.

Dayton looked good at the half, but the 11' pt Fav Flyers tanked in the second half.

Record: 4-6

The posted pays went 3-5, with the BC Un finishing reg time a Winner, but . . . OT.
Again - it's great when you're on the Over, but sucks when . . .

My charts look okay, still have a decent W % to work with if it continues.
My buys have not been good the last few days.
Sports betting means streaks, up and down.
When down, don't panic. Don't increase your bet size to try and get back lost units.
Patience. Discipline. THIS is how you proceed.

I might be down now AND as I noted yesterday this is new, no data history to go on. I don't know if it will be profitable or not, but I'm going to share the work, process, and thoughts here.

Let's look at what I have thus far.
The main play I'm hoping to use throughout the season is 16-10, 9-3 Ov, 7-7 Un.
In my chart I see the notation that means "Lost in OT" (*blue ink, letters OT) next to two Unders.
I can't cap OT (no one can.) None of my Overs needed OT to win.
Factoring this in, Unders would be 9-5. A record of 16-10 is good, I can work with that, but factoring the missed Unders this play would be 18-8.

Also on the chart are blue asterisks - this means the play fits more than one system I am developing/tracking. Overs on these are 8-3, Unders are 2-7.

I'll continue to try and fine tune the systems during the season, and will drop them and use something else if they fail to produce a profit.

Here's what I have for today.
Overs in W Ill/Miami and Boise St/BYU.
Unders in OK/Xavier and Pitt/N'west.
The Miami, Pitt, Baylor, and BYU spots have asterisks next to them.
Update, added plays:
Over in S Miss/Tulane
Unders in C Conn/ F Dick, Bryant/St Fran, Stephen Austin/Baylor


Knowing when to buy is very difficult in Kids Ball, the #'s are extremely volatile and unpredicatable.
Yesterday's Dayton game appeared to be rising, so I bought the Over mid-day at 134.
By game time it had dropped to 130/129'. This could have cost me a loss, but the game stayed Un by 5 pts.
I'm buying the Boise Ov spot now at the opening 141' as I see it at 142 at a couple houses.

Buys:
Boise St/BYU Ov 141'

* I use four different color inks on my chart, it makes them easier to read.
A red L within a circle is next to every loss. A green W is in a circle next to wins.
Teams and start times are in black, the book's number is in green.
The number I use to measure against the books is in purple.
If you keep a log book of your plays (and you should - how else can you identify your strengths and weaknesses?) use different ink. If you see too much red you know you have a problem that needs to be addressed.

Update
Buys:
Boise St/BYU Ov 141'
W Ill/Mia Ov 141'

In-game update: Four points scored in the fist six minutes of W Ill/Miami. FOUR.
W Ill is 0-13 shots taken, Mia 2-10. That's 2 shots made from 23 taken.
Run away from my play. Run fast, run far.

 

[Coach Woody]

4 points in 7 minutes....lets go W.Illiios/Miami... put the ball in the hole.


We are going to need an NBA type second half....come on boys you can do it... OR OT:0074

Might need Double OT.... but they are scoring more so far 2nd half

 

[lowell]

Nice call on over BYU. Thanks for your hard work and thanks for sharing.
I was wondering how you feel about teasers and parlays.

 

[Coach Woody]

Great Call on the BYU.

The 1st game would have gone over had they not started off so slow. Scoring definitely picked up 2nd half. I almost jumped on over second half but the slow start scared me off of it.

 

[RBD]

Lowell - thanks for the question and for the kudos on BYU Over.
I have an answer to your question on teasers and parlays that is more relevant than than how I feel about them - I can tell you how I do with them when I bet 'em.
From my college football post in which I did an accounting of my season:

"Audit: Did a full double check/accounting. My correct record is: 32-23, + $760
I also did a breakdown of which plays work for me, which ones don't, so I can use that info moving forward.
I found that, as usual, Unders are my strength at 12-4-1. Overs are 8-5.
I have Favs at 4-1, and Dogs at 2-2.
I didn't calculate W/L's on teasers, don't need to - looking at my record on Ov/Un and Fav/Dogs it's easy to see that most of my losses come from teasers, so I'll be avoiding them for the most part."

That was back in November - and I haven't done a single teaser in college since (did one in NFL, and am doing one this weekend.)
Regardless of how I feel about them, I wasn't doing well with them, so I eliminated them from my play.

How did I KNOW I should drop them? Because I handicap my play.

Bettors spend hours looking at how a team performs in certain situations - as Favs, Dogs, Over, Under, vs a particular opponent, etc. Yet, MOST people don't spend a single minute looking at how THEY THEMSELVES perform in situational plays.
What's YOUR record playing Favs? Dogs? Overs? Unders? Teasers? Parlays?
You like Detroit this week because they've covered the spread six of the last seven times they faced GB? Great, but how do YOU do when you bet Detroit? Or against GB?

Track yourself, handicap your plays!

Shorter answer - I never tease baskets, scores are too volatile.
I prefer NFL where scores are more stable.
As for parlays, this entire football season, college and pro, I've made one or two, none posted.

Teasers and parlays are for fun, but should generally be avoided. That's just my opinion, but here's a fact - not a single person I know who bets for a living does parlays or teasers. Ever.

Coach - yeah, BYU came through after that early game debacle. I don't think I've ever seen a team go scoreless for - what was it - the first ten minutes? That was ugly.

Recap: Got a split with a much needed Over from BYU/Boise.
Record: 5-7.

Missed opportunity - As I watched the early scoring onslaught by Bryant and St Francis yesterday I had a little deja vu. Then I realized that I just saw the same thing the day before. The total for Tue between these two was was 152. They had 96 in the first half alone, the game sailed over by 30 pts.
Same match-up yesterday and the books only raised the total by 8 pts??!!
And again the game sailed over, this time by 24 pts.
I should have been all over that play but I missed it.
Why? Too many games, too many sports, too many teams, too many numbers flying around in my head.

Back with today's spots after I update my logbook with any changes in NFL and college football.

Update: Two plays today.
Overs in S Dak/N Dak & N Dak St/S Dak St

No buys yet, but of the two I like the S Dak/N Dak spot, it has a positive record in three spots I track.
May buy it later.

 

[RBD]

Waited. Watched. First half now complete.
Got a better number on the second half than if I had bought Over on the full game (I would need 79 pts had I bet the full game; got 74' now.)

Six games played between them, five of six had > scoring in the second half than first half.
Avg PPG scoring differential from first half to second is 22 for N Dak, 10 for S Dak.
If they just hit their avg, the second half should see approx. 79 scored.

Three of six second half scores were over the number in today's game; two of the other three were close.
Shooting % first half is average, easy to improve in the second half.

Buy:
Ov 74' second half. (Not 75.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Call me Bob the Builder cuz I nailed that sucker.

Record: 6-7

It's early in the season for a look-see at how I'm doing, but I need all the help I can get moving forward so I'm doing a breakdown of my play now.
Ov 5-3 (4-3 full game), Un 1-4.
Second half plays Ov 1-0.

Doing better on Overs, but too soon to cut Unders out altogether.

Posted spots went 4-4 Wed, 2-0 yesterday.

I'm charting two main system plays, with sub-categories in each.
Also charting when there's a match between the two systems.
These have a record of Ov 1-0, Un 3-1 so I'll likely play those.

Everything else I'm looking at is near .500 so no value,
though I do have a subset that is 4-7, if it continues to lose I can use it as fade material.

Today's spots...
Overs in *N East/U Mass, *App St/UNC Char, Geo South/Davidson, Nev/GC, *San Jose St/St Mary's
Under in *Iowa St/Iowa

Update: From post #25:
"Also on the chart are blue asterisks - this means the play fits more than one system I am developing/tracking. Overs on these are 8-3, Unders are 2-7."
Updated record: Ov 9-4, Un 4-7.
(*'s added to above games.)

 

[RBD]

No buys, just updating plays that are active today, for record-keeping purposes and in case anyone's looking at these games.
Ov in Dayton, W I'll, S Dak
Un in Bryant, Ball St, Purdue

 

[RBD]

No buys, record keeping/info only.
Overs in A Force, Tenn Tech, Mercer
Under in *Iowa

Posted plays yesterday 4-2.
Charted at 24-19, Ov 13-6, Un 11-13
Plays marked * Ov 12-5, Un 5-8.

 

[Tkj]

Again, really appreciate your hard work !

 

[RBD]

Tkj, you're welcome. Glad you're checking in.

Posted plays went 3-1 yesterday, but if anyone is betting these, and paying attention,
it was a 3-0 or 4-0 day. The only L was Iowa, which was an Under game with an asterisk. And here's why I share the record in my charts - from yesterday: "Plays marked * Ov 12-5, Un 5-8." (The * marks the play as fitting a sub-system I chart.)
Iowa was an Under with an asterisk, record on these was 5-8.
With a 5-8 play, do I bet on or against?
Either fade it, or stay off it, so yesterday was 3-0 or 4-0, if played properly.

I updated my charts this morning, looking for a sub-system within the main system, anything that has a high W or L % for me to use this week. Spotted this - when the difference between my number and the books is 13 pts or > the record is 5-0 Ov, 3-2 Un. I'll have to watch for those this week, if any pop up I'll make note of it.

Today's spots:
Overs in *E Kentucky, *Radford
Under in Bill & Mary/GW. If GW drops below 138 it no longer qualifies.

Correction - the line on GW was 147'/148, not 138.
It's 146' all over the board so it no longer meets qualification parameters (need at least an 8 pt differential between my # and the books.) Dropped, no play.

Buys:
E Kent/Morehead Ov 145
Longwood/Radford Ov 128

Update:
Looking at my chart I just saw we had the same match-up - E Kent/Morehead St Ov - a few days ago.
It lost. The # was 146', it stayed Under by seven pts; it only drops 1' in this spot to 145.

If I had seen this earlier I likely would not bet it if the line didn't drop (it hasn't; in fact it's gone up to 146), not because it already lost in this spot, but because they had an excellent game, shooting %-wise.
Despite 67% and 41% from the field it stayed Under, making tonight's 145 look unattractive.
Can't expect 67% again, have to hope they do better on 3 pt'ers, 16-47, 25% last game.

Just a heads up in case anyone is looking at buying this spot.
Sorry I didn't include this info earlier, just spotted it.

 

[RBD]

Recap: I had both games correctly 'capped yesterday but went 1-1.
Hit with Radford Ov, missed with the bad call on Morehead.

I hope anyone playing these saw the Update and did not bet Morehead Ov, or, if you bought it early, you bought the Under to get off the play.

In my football posts you see things like "BYU has been in this spot two times this season and is 0-2."
I check the history of any team that is an active play in any if the situations I track to see how it has performed in previous times. I did not do that with Kid Ball yesterday until after I bought the game and posted it, and paid for my mistake. That will not happen again.

Record: 7-8.

I have a little data compiled now, things to play ON or AGAINST, let's see if I can bank some units this week.
The records of the main play I'm using is 17-7 Ov, Un 11-14.

A lot of games on today's card, I'll be back after I run them through my situational spots.
I expect to have a lot to choose from today.

Update: Didn't get as many as I thought I would, but did get a couple of spots I like.
Ov in *Rice, Radford, *E Tenn St >, E Wash
Un in *Cent Conn

The Radford game has an interesting line at 126.
These two played each other yesterday, the # opened 128.
It went off at 126, and went Ov by 7 pts. Today they drop the total 2 pts from yesterday's opener.
Shooting was normal at 44% from the field for both, 3 pt'ers and FT's nothing special. Shouldn't be hard to duplicate those efforts, I expected today's total would be up by 2 pts or so. It's a bad line or maybe someone is injured?

St Fran Bklyn has been in this play twice, both as Unders, lost both times. Fade it to the Over or no play.
Cent Conn was in an Under and won, so no buy, ON or AGAINST the St Fran/Cent Conn spot.

St Mary's is 2-0 Ov in this spot.

Update #2: Add on play, Chi St Un.


I posted ">" to denote when the differential is 13 or >.
Record for this spot is in yesterday's post.

Buys:
Houston Bap/Rice Ov 158'
NC AT&T/E Tenn St Ov 136'

 

[Coach Woody]

Hey RBD,

Am I missing something? I have E. Tenn St playing Garden Weber Total at 133.5

Just want to make sure that is play you wanted. I didn't see NC A&T?

You never know in the Covid world maybe the game was switched or what's going on.

Thanks for all you do on here.

 

[Coach Woody]

I guess that game was switched....I imagine Covid...is it still a play?

 

[RBD]

Coach,
I just saw my bet was taken down.
That sucks, it was my best play today, hit on three charts with a solid record: the main play, *, and >.

Still qualifies but loses the > as it's only a 9 pt differential. If I buy it I'll add it here.

Ov in *Rice, Radford, *E Tenn St, E Wash

Un in *Cent Conn, Chi St (Unders are terrible, should fade them all.)


Update: Ov 145' (no higher) in *Buffalo
Update: I didn't see this until almost tip off, couldn't get a bet in, adding for record keeping purposes or possibility for live betting/2nd half possibilities, Charl Ov 125'

Update: *St Louis Un


Buys:
Houston Bap/Rice Ov 158'
NC AT&T/E Tenn St Ov 136' CNCLD

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won with Rice Over.
Record: 8-8

Posted plays went 4-5. Overs were 3-3, Unders 1-2.
Here's some of the info from my charts:

The Percentage Plays I'm using are 32-26.
Overs are a solid 20-10, I'll lean on them this week.
Unders are 12-16; fade possibilities.

The * plays are 21-17.
Overs are 15-7, Unders 6-10.
The > plays are 8-2, Ov 5-0, Un, 3-2.

If you're thinking of buying one of the daily posted plays, the stats I just listed give you an idea of where the best win %'s are.

Today's posted plays:
Ov in *Mid Tn St, Tenn Tech
Un in *Cent Conn

St Francis/Cent Conn was in this same spot yesterday and won for anyone fading the * Unders.
Today's opening # is only 2' pts higher than yesterday's #, in a game that sailed Over by 27 pts.
Might be difficult to repeat yesterday's shooting %'s but I'm fading it because it's in the * Under spot.

Jax St/Tenn Tech was in this same spot three days ago and won.
Opening # was 135', they scored 140. Same # today.
Last game benefited from a lot of fouling and 29 pts from FT's so I'll need more of the same or improved shooting from the field because I'm on this one, too.

Hard to anticipate line movements in Kids Ball, but since both games went over last time, I'm buying now in case the # goes up.

I'll do updates in this post throughout the day as the lines change and more plays may become available.

Buys:
St Fran/Cent Conn Ov 155'
Tenn Tech/Jax St Ov 133