College Hoops 2020

[Coach Woody]

Hey RBD,

Do you ever chart time of day on these games. Just hit me that sometimes these games are played early and when they are did these kids get up early or are they still in sleep mode? :shrug:

I think about this working one of two ways....either can't move on defense cause still sluggish or can't hit a shot cause they usually would be day dreaming about the hot sorority girl they want to ask out in class?

Just a thought on does time of day ever play into your thoughts.

We need these kids to wake up and hit some shots in this first game for sure.

 

[RBD]

I don't chart it but I have looked at it, and Ov/Un were a slight edge for Unders last I checked.
Today's game is more than 20 pts fewer than the avg St Francis first half.
FG % is okay for both teams but too many missed 3 pt'ers is hurting the total.

 

[Coach Woody]

I saw that game and scoring picking up late part of first half. bought back some at over 141. Let's hope they keep scoring




The definitely picked up scoring but still wasn't enough...hit a small lul in the 2nd half and it did me in.

 

[RBD]

I was watching it on the game tracker ticker, rooting hard for you Coach, close, but St Francis just couldn't hit a shot in the final minute.

One added play, no buy, San Diego/Cal Poly Un.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Posted plays went 2-2 yesterday, I should have come out of it with no damage.
So why did I have a losing day at 0-2?
Because I went with the %'s and faded the St. Francis game and took it Over.
And it was NOT a good day to buy Overs, they went 24-11 including what seemed like all of the day games.
Record: 8-10

As of now, nothing fits as a play. I'll track line moves, if something qualifies I'll post it.
Yesterday I gave back the 2 units I banked Mon & Tue so for my next buy I'm going to be patient and wait for a game that has strong qualifiers, hitting on multiple % plays.

Good luck with your plays today . . .

 

[RBD]

I had no buys yesterday because no games qualified.
Looking back on yesterday's results it sucks that I had no plays.
Why?
Because I've been using Overs (based on the better record they have) and Overs went 19-5 yesterday.
The day before, Unders went 24-11.
With swings like that Kids Ball is going to be tough to beat.

Today...

Over in *BYU, *Morehead St, Belmont, >A Force

Under in Richmond

Records of today's teams in this spot:
BYU 1-0, Morehead 0-2, Loyola 1-0, Nevada 2-0.

Buys:
BYU/San Diego St Ov 136
A Force/Nev Ov 130

 

[RBD]

Going to try something different here, N Dak Un 137.

Last four times teams played each other B2B (Radford, Sacred Heart, Bryant, St Francis) the totals swapped, if game one was Over, game two went Under, if game one went Under game two went Over.
N Dak & S Ill went Over yesterday.

Nothing complicated, not a system play, just taking a chance it goes the same way today as I don't see S Ill duplicating their shooting %'s from yesterday.

Buys:
N Dak/S Ill Un 137
BYU/San Diego St Ov 136
A Force/Nev Ov 130

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won 2 of 3 last night, only a bad buy kept me from a perfect 3-0.

N Dak Under was easy all the way.

Over 130 in Nevada was at a pace for 145 + throughout most of the game. With four minutes left they were at 127.
No problem, right?
Four minutes to get four points, easy right?
Wrong. It's Kids Ball.
I leave the game, come back, it's at 130 with 20 seconds left.
WTF??!!
I have two free throws coming.
They miss the first.
At the second, game lands 131 for a one point winner.

A bad buy on BYU cost me a perfect day.
The line looked to be rising so I bought it early at 136.
It closed at 133.
It landed on 134, and I lost by 2.

Posted plays went 2-3, with a two-point loss and a one-point loss. Plays with the differential of 13 or > won again,
9-2, Ov 6-0, Un 3-2.

Today's spots:
Ov in *Char, Cleve St, Radford
Un in Iowa, *Oregon, Monmouth

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Updates.

Add a * to Cleve St.
I just re-ran the numbers and we have an added game,
Ov * Miss/Dayton

I'm re-running the 12 o clock and 1 o clock games now, I'll update if anything qualifies.

Update, added spots:
Ov in S Miss, Delaware
Un in Temple

With the Over coming in on Zaga/Iowa, the Unders are now 14-18.
With the * qualifier they're 6-12.
The next one on the schedule is Port/Oregon. I'm on it.

Buys:
Port/Oregon Ov 148.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with Portland, 3-3 on the week, here's the tiebreaker...

Buy:
Wisc/Wisc Phnx Over 139 (wait a little bit to buy, it'll get to 139, it's 139' now and dropping.
Buy at 139' if it doesn't drop.

This is the same spot I used with N Dak the other day, it's also 13 > my #.

 

[Coach Woody]

I can't find that line anywhere is anyone else having trouble?


Just checking it's Wisconsin?

 

[RBD]

Coach - the game was taken off the board, not sure why - they played.
Counts as a loss though.

I was going to shut it down at 3-2 and close the week with a small win, but no need to be too conservative, I have a lot of games left this season and I had two I liked. Dropped both though, 3-4 on the week.
Record: 10-13

I don't have much to work with. Here is my logbook chart:

The main play I use is 42-41, Ov 27-23, Un 17-20. Hitting at .500, no value.

* is Ov 17-13, slight edge to play ON, Un is 7-12, good fade material to play AGAINST.

The only spot with real value is >.
When the differential between the game line and the # I use is 13 or > the record is Ov 7-1, Un 3-2.
This spot failed me yesterday with the Wisc game, but A Force had a whopping 21' pt differential so it went 1-1 on the day.

'Zaga fits today, another 21' diff, but it's an Under not an Over.

Here are the games that qualify today:
Ov in *Clem, N Az, Geo St, *Boise St
Un in Bryant, Baylor, >'Zaga

Update: add < to the Boise spot.

Buys:
N West St/Gonzaga Un 171

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won with the > 13 play as Gonzaga stayed Under by 19.

Record: 11-13

Correction on the record of the play I'm using, yesterday's #'s were wrong.
45-45, Ov 26-24, Un 19-21
*Ov 17-15, Un 8-12
> Ov 7-2, Un 4-2

The main play is at .500, no value, can't play ON, can't fade.

* has no value on the Over, slight value on fading the Un AT 8-12

> won the 'Zaga Under last night, lost with BYU Ov (10 minutes before game time I checked the #, BYU had dropped a few pts so it qualified. I posted here, but didn't buy it as I liked my position on Gonzaga Under.)

Update:
Ov in Miss, *Cal, Hampton, * > 'Bama, *St Mary's
Un in * > Iowa, *Gonzaga

Banked with 'Zaga last night, don't think I'll go back to the well and try to score again (and there's no > this game.)

Have > in two spots, Iowa and 'Bama, possible buys there, I'll decide later after monitoring the line.
Both will stay > as long as Iowa # does not drop below 153; 'Bama does not rise above 142.

Update: 'Bama no longer qualifies as >; the # is 142' and higher.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Posted plays, 3-4, still hovering at .500, no edge for value.

Only play that has value is >.

I dropped by with an FYI that 'Bama no longer qualified, as the differential dropped from 13 to 12'.
They still went Over.

I didn't notice until checking #'s this morning that St Mary's qualified late, at 13.
St. Mary's was in this spot twice before, won both times, so I had this game in pocket and it's the perfect example of why I hate this sport.

It was a solid pace for an Over for the entire game, until late in the second half when St. Mary's played like a bunch of Marys, going 7 minutes without hitting a shot.
They scored ONE pt in seven minutes, a FT.
Seven minutes, ONE pt.

Anyway . . . at least Iowa came through.

> is now Ov 7-2, Un 5-2.

Today;
Ov > N Mex/Boise St
Un in NJ Tech/Rider

NJ has been in this spot once before, and it won. If the number goes up I may buy it.

Got a 17 pt differential in the Boise game so it fits as a > play.
> Ov is 7-2, so this is a possible buy, right?
Let's take a closer look.
They played two days ago, and it was one of the two losses in this 7-2 record.
The total was 139. It stayed Under by 9.
Do we get a drop in today's #? 135, 136 maybe?
No, it's 139 again.
Not very confidence-inspiring for an Over, eh?
But . . .
N Mex, a 3-1 team, shot poorly, on FG's, 3 pt'ers and FT's.
Was it a case of poor shooting on their part, %'s they will easily improve on in this game,
or was it Boise's defense that held them back?

I want to pull the trigger on this one but 139 is too high.
If it drops a few pts I'll buy and recommend it.
Will update if I do.

Update: NJ dropped from 142' to 140 so it no longer qualifies as a play.

 

[RBD]

Not only did I not get the drop I wanted in the N Mex/Boise game, but the line actually went up a pt.
Two days ago when they played it was 139, stayed Under by 9.
Yesterday, opened at 139 again, went up to 140.
So, I didn't buy it.
Landed on 141.

Oh well . . .

Today only one spot: (Correction - tomorrow)
*Iowa/Minn Un 163'

The line is rising, there are some 164 out there. If it hits 164' it qualifies as >.
After last night's N Mex/Boise St win, these are 13-5, Ov 8-3, Un 5-2.
I'm definitely on it if it hits 164' or higher.
Will update if I buy.

Merry Christmas to you and yours . . .

 

[Coach Woody]

Merry Christmas RBD

 

[RBD]

Thanks Coach,
Merry Christmas to you, too.

Iowa/Minn line keeps going up, differential now at 14 so it qualifies as a > play. I'm buying it now at 165' in case there's a buy back later from middle players.

Buys:
Iowa/Minn Un 165'

 

[Coach Burns]

That loss was bullshit.... 20 pts in last
2 mins..... fuck that garbage and these
Bad beats!!!!!

 

[ROBB MACK]

That loss was bullshit.... 20 pts in last
2 mins..... fuck that garbage and these
Bad beats!!!!!

That is another example of why I dont bet umders. Always got a chance with overs due to that bomb and foul shit and multiple ots.

 

[RBD]

Thanks Coach Burns and Robb Mac for stopping in.
Yeah, that was an ugly one. I thought I had it 'capped correctly, but . . . Kid's Ball.

I've always said that one day they'll find me dead, laying on the living room floor in front of the TV set, heart attack, and if they match up the time of death to what was showing on the TV channel at that time they'll find it was a college basketball game. And the neighbors will say, "I'm not surprised. I heard the nut yelling curses at his TV again."

Record: 11-13.
It's a tough puzzle, but I'm going to solve it.

Only one game fits today.
UN GB/Wright St Ov 147'.
If the # drops to 145' it becomes a > play, which, even after the loss with Iowa yesterday is still bettable at 8-3 Ov, 5-3 Un.

No buys for me yet.