College Hoops 2020

[RBD]

Looks like the lines have been tightening up.
It's been a tough week for getting plays, Mon & Tue no games met the 8 pt differential threshold.

Got two today, McNeese St/Incarnate Word Ov 144 and Tex A&M-CC/SE Louisiana St Ov 133'.

The diff on both is just 8', which means if either line goes up a pt or > they no longer qualify.

I said I'm only going to buy at a diff of 13 or > and that strategy served me well last week so I want to try and stick to it again this week. No buys on either of the above games.

Here's an update on my chart, in case anyone is looking at those two games and wondering.
The base play (diff of 8 or >) is 101-82 (55%), 58-47 Ov (55%), 43-35 Un (55%)
Nothing special, but winning.

Diff of 13 or > is 27-14 (66%), 16-10 Ov (61%), 11-4 Un (73%).

Slim chance any line changes today will give me a play so it looks like I have another day off in Kid's Ball.
I'm off to do the NBA numbers, hopefully I'll get something there . . .

 

[RBD]

Both posted plays won yesterday, maybe I'm playing too tight holding out for a diff of 13 or >?

One spot so far, Ov 140 in Charleston/UNC Ash (8').
I'm jonesing for some action, if I don't get a 13 or > I'm buying Charleston if the line doesn't go up.
Back after I do the rest of the card.

Update: Charleston line rising everywhere, 141' now so the diff is now 7; it no longer qualifies as a play.
I like this spot, pissed I didn't buy it when it was 140; no buy at 141'.

No 13 or > plays, here's what I have to choose from (the base play of 8 or >):
Ov 140 in LIU/Wager (diff of 9)
Ov 132 in Tenn St/Jax St (10')
Ov 131 in S Diego St/Utah St (8)
Un 158' in Col St/S Jose St (9')

I listed the current total and the current differential, so anyone who is interested can see if a play gets better or worse.
Example: the current total on Jax St Ov is 132, the diff is 10'; if the line drops to 131 the diff becomes 11', making it a stronger play.
You can also see if a line move makes the spot no longer qualify (example: the total on Utah St is currently 131, the diff is 8; if the line goes to 131' the diff becomes < 8 and it no longer qualifies.

Anyway . . .

Back if I buy anything.

 

[RBD]

Posted plays went 3-1 yesterday.
That makes them 5-1 this week and I didn't bank a single unit because I was waiting for a stronger play with a differential of 13 or >.
Well, it can't get too much stronger than 5-1, so I'm buying something today!

Here are the spots that qualify:
Ov 130' in Troy/G South (differential of 10)
Ov 136 in Cleve St/Wright St (8)
Ov 139' LIU/Wagner (9')
Un in Liberty/Stetson (8)
Ov 125 in Mid Tenn St/S Miss (16)

Can't do Over in LIU, it went Over and won yesterday, and I like the total in the second game of B2B's to go opposite of the first game.

Finally got a spot at 13 or > in Mid Tenn St/ S Miss, great, right?
No.
S Miss is 0-2 in this spot, Mid Tenn St is 1-3 for a combined 1-5. Ugh.
Wait - maybe they were close losses?
No such luck, losses included misses by 14, 20, 32 and 26 pts. Double Ugh.
Those #'s make a strong case for a fade, and taking it Under.

I'm definitely buying at least one of these.
The first game doesn't tip off until 3 PM PST, so I'll watch the lines for a while.
Back with a buy later today.


Update: Just ran a check on Liberty and Stetson to see if they have been in the Under spot before.
Liberty is 1-0, Stetson 1-3.

So, add that gem to the ones I don't like (Wagner, S Miss.)
I'm going to check past performances of the Troy and Cleve St spots, hopefully find something positive instead of losing records.

Geo South is 1-1, Troy is 2-1, so . . .

Buys:
Troy/Geo South Ov 130'

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD how did you know we would win by half a point in overtime. That was amazing 🤣🤣🤣🤣

:mj07: :mj07:

Love it when we get lucky on a game.:toast::toast:


Keep them rolling love watching and playing your posts

 

[Trucker Gambler]

I had them at 131.5 so not so good for me but made it up on S Miss half and game over love your right ups I tail you often

 

[RBD]

Coach, yeah, more than a little luck was needed in that one. Four of the five games posted yesterday morning won, I had to pick the one that was a nail biter. Could have been worse, I could have picked the loser.

Trucker, sorry you got the 131', glad you got it back on S. Miss.
I always try to use the number that's available to most people, I bought that one early before it went up.
I would never recommend buying points in basketball, but I would recommend not buying a play if you can't get the number that I posted it at, or at least using the differential of 8 as a minimum.

Example: I post a game at Over 130 (8).
This tells you that my number is 138.

The differential of 8 between my number and the books' number makes it a play on the Over.
If the books number rises even a half point to 130', the differential becomes 7', and it no longer qualifies as a play because 8 is the minimum differential that I use.
I was using 5 to start the season but wasn't getting enough winners so I tweaked it to 8.
If I post Over 130 (8) and the number drops to 129' or lower, it still qualifies as a play because now the differential becomes greater.

Recap: Needed OT, but squeaked by with a half-point winner yesterday with Troy Over.

Record: 20-14

At first glance the five posted plays yesterday went 4-1, but two got crossed off my chart because of line changes. Dropped the loser with Cleveland State and lost a winner with Stetson Under.
The Southern Miss game was the only 13 or >, and it won.

Here's an update on my charts:
109-83. That's about 57% on almost 200 plays, not too shabby. If I was an action player who likes to bet as many games as possible I'd be in heaven.
The breakdown is Ov 65-48 Un 44-35.
The cream is in the 13 or >,
28-14, Ov 17-10, Un 11-4.

With all the games on the card today I have a lot of spots that fit. I'll list all the games (in case anyone is looking for an angle on them) but as always, I don't buy them all.

Here are the spots to choose from today.

Over in:
Charleston 127 (10)
Utah St 128 (11)
Troy 129 (11')
UTEP 127 (11)
Abilene 132' (13) Update: (12') no a > 13 play
S Miss 128 (13)
Wright St 134 (10)
McNeese 148' (9')
N Dak 127 (8')

Under in:
Citadel 168' (12) Update: 170' (14)
'Bama 162' (8)
Stetson 133' (11)
N Iowa 139' (8)

a lot to choose from, including some duplicates from yesterday.

Buys:
Citadel/VMI Un 170'

 

[RBD]

Two of the three early games look like they're going to win, I took the other one. no regrets, I went with the strongest play based on the records in my chart, > 13 Un.
Correction - One of the two early games looks good (Charleston).

The Abilene line dropped a half a point so it's a 13 again.

Buys:
Citadel/VMI Un 170'
San Diego State second half Ov 67' (corrected)
Abilene Ov 132'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Gave back a unit with a 1-2 day. I can't say I chose poorly, I used what I thought were the two strongest plays on the board. I was able to get back a unit using the second half Over play in Utah State. I watched the first half, saw a lot of missed opportunities I thought they would make up for in the second half, squeaked out a W there. Didn't watch any more basketball for the rest of the day so I didn't make any more plays.

Record: 20-15.

Posted plays went 7-5.

Abilene dropped to a diff of 12'; the 13 or > plays went 0-2.

Unders went 3-1 (and I used the only one that lost!)

I'm 2-2 for the week, was hoping to get a couple buys in today, but unless line changes add a few plays there is only one,
N'Eastern/Charleston Ov 127 (9'). This was a play yesterday and it won, and I don't like going back looking for a second in a row.
Looks like I'm stuck taking the day off in Kid's Ball, if that changes I'll post up.

 

[RBD]

The week ended yesterday, and it followed the script that played out Mon through Sat - another win on a posted play that I didn't buy, Charleston Ov.

That makes posted plays 16-6 for the week.
And I went 2-2 with buys.
See anything wrong with that picture?

Let's try to fix that this week.

Record 20-15

Short card today, one spot only for right now, New Mex/UNLV Over 137 (9').
The lines are tight on the rest of the games, I don't think I'll get any moves large enough to get a second play.

I watched a New Mex game two weeks ago and made a note to try and avoid using them in Overs.
Their typical possession goes like this:
in-bound the ball,
slow walk it up the court,
stand at the top of the key and dribble the shot clock down until there are only a few seconds left,
take a lousy shot and miss,
wash, rinse, repeat.

I just checked their record, and . . . 2 Overs, 7 Unders.
Confirms what my note advises.

Still, I'm not going to sit on the sidelines like last week.
The game opened 137' and there are 137 out there now, I'll wait and buy it later, hoping it drops lower.
I'll post my # when I get it.

Update: Some of the 137 have gone to 137', don't think I'll get a drop, buying it now while half the board is still at 137.

Buy:
N Mex/UNLV Ov 137

 

[RBD]

Recap:
I got home last night about 15 minutes after tip off, turned on the TV, and switched to channel carrying the game to see if New Mexico was screwing me on my Over.
A commercial was on, so I stepped into the kitchen to get a drink.
I heard the commercial end and game come back on, and the announcer says this, "A rough start for the Running Rebels, just 3 of 20 from the field."

And that was the end of that Over.

Record: 20-16.

A late line shift on UNC-Green qualified it as a play on Un 165' (8) but I didn't buy it.
And of course, it . . .

Short card again today, two spots qualify.
SUNY-Buff/Kent St Un 163 (10)
High Point/Longwood Ov 131' (9).

After losing 1 unit on Sat and Mon, and not having a prime spot of 13 or > to play today, I would normally give heavy consideration to taking a day off to try and avoid the start of a losing streak. But not buying plays last week cost me a lot of units, so I'm going to start the day by taking the Buff game. I'll watch the High Point line, if it drops I may add it.

Buys:
SUNY-Buff/Kent St Un 163

 

[RBD]

Thirty-six fouls in thirty-five minutes of play.
Disgusting.
I know what the refs have their money on in this one.
It's enough to make me want to stop 'capping this crap.

Update:
And . . . one last foul with THREE seconds left, followed by two made FT's and I get tagged with a 2 pt loss.

 

[Coach Woody]

Yup lost another game by a bucket.

I can't believe how many basketball games I have lost by one lousy bucket one way or another.

 

[RBD]

Coach, all anyone can hope for is to win as many games by one basket as they lose by one.
But it certainly doesn't seem that way.

Recap: Lost with Buff on on Tuesday, making it 3 L's in a row, so I took yesterday off.
Record: 20-17

To update charts, yesterday was a good day to take off. Base plays went 1-2; there were no 13 or > plays.
119-93, 70-55 Ov, 49-38 Un; 13 or > 28-16, 17-11, 11-5.

Had I bought and posted it would have been the Longwood game Ov because it just missed the previous day on poor shooting. And it proved taking a day off was the right move as they stayed Un by 11 pts.

Five choices today, including a tough one to figure out.
SE Mizz St/Morehead St Ov 127' (8')
Mt St Mary's/Central Conn Ov 131' (9)
St Mary's/Loyola Ov 125 (10)
Az/Az St Un 154 (12)
S Utah/Weber St Un (9)

I bought the Az game as it has the highest differential, just short of the 13 I look for,
also Az St is 1-0 in this spot. Submitting this now so anyone who is interested can get it at 154 as the board is divided between 154 and 153'.

The tough one to figure out is the Morehead game.
Morehead has appeared in this play five times this season and they have lost ALL five.
So, what to do? Look for them to lose again and take the Under, or chase a W on the Over?

Surely I cannot take the Over as it has a record of 0-5. Only a great fool would take an Over in a spot that is 0-5 and I am not a great fool therefore I cannot take the Over.
BUT . . .
On the other hand, there is the due factor. Surely I cannot take the Under when it is clear that after five losses a reversal of fortune is so obviously in play, so I cannot take the Under.

(Yes, I was doing Vizzini there.)

What to do, what to do?

Update: The Morehead decision is removed, the line went up, no longer qualifies as a play.
IF I played it I would have rode the streak and taken the Un.)

Update #2: Adding St Mary's Ov


Buys:
Az/Az St Un 154
St Mary's/Loyola Ov 124

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split, and after three straight L's I'll take it.
I was lucky to get a split, the Loyola game only covered by 2 pts. Needed to go Over 124, it was at 123 with about 30 seconds left. St Mary's was up by only 6 pts which means they'd get fouled and I'd get free throws and be safe, right?
Wrong.
They DID get FT's, four of them in fact, and . . . they missed ALL FOUR.
St. Mary's saved me.

I thought I was going to pull out a 2-0 night.
Az Un 154 was sitting at 55 pts at the half, meaning they'd need 89 in the second half to beat me, a hefty 34 more pts than they scored in the first half. Bastards broke 100, scoring 101 in the second half.

Record: 21-18

Two spots today:
Mt St Mary's/C. Conn Ov 132 (8')
Troy/Coast Car Ov 137' (11')

The Mt. St Mary's spot is a repeat of yesterday. The number is just a hook fewer at 132. Yesterday they scored 124, missing the Over by 8 pts. The Mary's had an avg shooting %, but the Blue Devils had a sub par game at 37% from the field and just 6 of 23 from 3 pt range.

I'll likely take a day off with just two spots to choose from, and neither a 13 or >, knowing I'll have a lot to choose from tomorrow.

 

[RBD]

Posted spots split yesterday, good thing I stayed off Mount Saint Mary's they stayed under by one point.

as noted yesterday, I did get a lot more to choose from today but not a single 13 or > (28-16, Ov 17-4, Un 11-5.)
I'm a little pissed about that, with a full slate of games I figured I would get at least two or three like every other Saturday.

I got to get something in for some action today, here's what I have to choose from:

Overs in Toledo 154 (9'), N Mex 140' (11'), Idaho St 134' (10), Mississippi 125' (9'), Florida Atlantic 124' (9), Furman 141 (8'), Abilene 142' (8'), Tex St 123' (8), Cleve St 131 (8'), McNeese 160' (8), S Fran 128' (10), Long Beach 159 (9)

Unders in Toledo 154 (9'), Weber State 155 (9), Hawaii 147 (9).

I'll be back with something after I figure it out.
Good luck with your plays today.

 

[Trucker Gambler]

Toledo is on both Over and Under so I will pass on that one, I tail you most days I love your input but today is a bit scary IMO Miss, Fl Atl, New mex, these 3 as I am sure you know have just down nothing offensively and maybe its the due factor and of course all 3 have whipped my ass so I "hate" seeing you on them just due to the respect I have for all your input, so I will pass on these 3 LOL thanks for all the work you do.

 

[RBD]

Trucker, my error on Toledo. Wish I saw this earlier, I would have corrected it. It can't hit both Over and Under. The base number was 144', the books number was 154, making it a play on the Under by 9'. Sorry about that.

Last Saturday there were four Unders, they went 3-1 and I bet only one of them, the one that lost. I had three Unders to choose from today, and out of curiosity I went back to Saturday 2 weeks ago to see what the record was, and found that Unders went 5-1.
The Saturday before that? 5-1.
I'm missing the first two Saturdays in December, nothing in my logbook, I guess I was either out or busy, but all Saturday's, the record on Unders is 16-7. There's no rhyme or reason for it, but it's 2-0 today, so 18-7 overall.
Like I said, probably no reason for it but at 18-7 I was going to ride the streak anyway and take the one Under left, Hawaii.
But the line has dropped to 146.
It was 147 with a difference of 8 (the base number is 139.)
The difference is now 7 so it no longer qualifies. Damn.

The game's not until later, if it goes back up I'll buy it and post.
If not, at least I found something I can jump on next Saturday.

 

[RBD]

Yesterday, Hawaii closed 147 so it did qualify, Unders went 3-0.

Posted plays when 10-4 yesterday.
And I didn't use any of them here. Ugh.

After spotting the anomaly on Saturday Unders, I decided to check Sundays. Again, there's probably no rhyme or reason for it but all plays, Ov & Un are 16-7 for the season.

I should have had a lot of buy recommendations yesterday.
I'm not missing out today.
Only two games fit right now.
Presby/High Pt Ov 126 (12)
Utah/Wash Un142 (8)

I'll wait for High Point results before deciding to play the second game or not.

Update: Bank it. No play on the second game.

Buys:
Presby/High Pt Ov 126

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won with Presby Ov, and then did the right thing by banking it, and not getting greedy by playing the only other game that fit, Utah/Wash Un, which sailed Over.

Record: 22-18.

Two spots fit today.
Presby/High Pt Ov 129' (8')
Az St/Az Un 156 (11)

Won with the Presby matchup yesterday so I'm not playing it again.

While 'capping the Az game it seemed familiar, checked my log book and saw that I used this same spot last Thursday. Here is my recap:
"Az Un 154 was sitting at 55 pts at the half, meaning they'd need 89 in the second half to beat me, a hefty 34 more pts than they scored in the first half. Bastards broke 100, scoring 101 in the second half."
(The 55 in my recap was incorrect, it was 65.)

The total in this game is only 2 pts higher than the last game. I guess the question is - which half was normal and which was the anomaly, the 65 pt first half or the 101 pt second half?
The answer? I have no idea. Which is why I'm laying off this game, too.
I think I found a few things I can use, like the Saturday Unders, so I'll choose carefully during the week, looking for 13 or > spots until I can get to some buys on Saturday.

 

[RBD]

I'll have my first buy of the week today, the Butler game.

Posted plays went 1-1 yesterday. Good move not going back to try and win a second day in a row with Presby Ov, as they stayed Under by 2 pts.

Lines are tight today, only have one spot that qualifies, and one game that may qualify if the line drops a pt.
Butler/U Conn Ov 123 (11).

Updated chart on base play is 133-103, Ov 80-62 Un, 53-41.
13 or > is 28-16, Ov 17-4, Un 11-5.

I scanned my logbook and don't see either of these teams appearing in this spot previously this season, so no records to factor in to the decision to buy or not.
There are a couple of 122' and 123' out there but 123 is the common number available at most houses.

Buys:
Butler/U Conn Ov 123