College Hoops 2020

[RBD]

Recap: Lost with Stony Brook by a basket.
Record: 27-27

New Play goes 2-2, I used one of the losers.
I'm sitting at .500 again, just like at the start of last week.

Updated charts to start the week:

Main play 143-116, Ov 88-74, Un 55-42; 13 or > 28-19, Ob 17-14, Un 11-5

New play 22-18, Ov 9-6, Un 13-11; 10 or > 11-6, Ov 3-2, Un 8-4
Still worth charting for a few more days.

Nothing in the main play today.
New play has Zaga Ov 155' (8'), Minn Un 148' (8'), Alcorn Un 139 (11)

Unders of 10 or > took a beating Saturday, trending downward, but overall at 8-4 it's still worth a buy.

Update: Minn Un now 150 (10).
Update# 2: Zaga up to 156', diff now 7', no play.

Buys:
Grambling/Alcorn Un 139

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won with Grambling Under, back over .500, need to win two more to get back juice, then build on it.
Record: 28-27

From yesterday: "Unders of 10 or > took a beating Saturday, trending downward, but overall at 8-4 it's still worth a buy. Update: Minn Un now 150 (10).

I bought Grambling/Alcorn because it had a diff of 11, and Unders of 10 or > were sitting at 8-4.
I did an update/FYI to show that Minn moved to 10 also. Both spots won, 10-4 now, so it's definitely worth still charting the new thing.


It's difficult to keep accurate charts in basketball because of all the line movements.
For example, yesterday morning, three NBA games qualified. At some point during the day, all three saw line movement that made them no longer qualify, and one game moved back the other way and qualified again at closing.

If my charts aren't accurate they're worthless as a guide for when to buy a game.
So the question is - what number should be used for the chart?
In football, I've always used the closing number, or at least the number late on game day.
In baskets. I'm not sure what to use.

One of my concerns is I don't want someone to buy a game in the morning, only to stop back later in the day and see it was taken off because it no longer qualifies. (I've done it myself.)

Anyway . . .

Only one spot in the main play, and . . . it's N Mex Over 134 (10').
After seeing this I immediately went to the TV guide, hoping it wasn't on TV so I wouldn't be tempted,
and . . . damn you FOX SPORTS1!

New play has Overs in 'Bama 157 (8), Texas 132 (11'), and Iowa St 142' (8').
And, making things interesting, it has one Under . . . N Mex 134 (9).

A check of the logbook shows one head-to-head matchup between the two systems I'm using.
Friday 2/5, main play said Ark Little Rock Over, new play said Under. It stayed Under, the new play is 1-0.

I'm going to buy N Mex Under but will wait to buy, hoping I can get a line move in my favor.
It opened 132. If it climbs just one pt higher it becomes a diff of 10, the same play I used yesterday with Grambling, the one that's now 10-4.

Update: Waiting was definitely the right move, 135' is now the common number, picked up at least 1' pts.
A few 136 out there, still waiting, but be ready to grab 135' if you see a buy-back starting on the Under from those who bought the Over on the opening 132.

Update - just saw Bama closed at 157', makes the diff 7', no play. A decent score at the half, with 2nd half line factored in it looks to go Over, but I have to be consistent in tracking, so it comes down off the chart.

Buys:
N Mex/Col St Un 135'

 

[RBD]

Recap: No play, N Mex game was cancelled.
Making matters worse, it was cancelled very late in the day, leaving me no time to post a buy on the other 10 or > play, Tex/K St, which had already started and won easily.

Iowa St/TCU, and the 'Bama game I had to take down because it missed by a half pt, won, too.

Good thing I didn't drop the new play after one bad day - Saturday - because it's 6-2 since then.
Overall it's 26-18, Ov 11-6, Un 15-12 (found an error on my chart, added a loss to the Under)
10 or > is now 14-6, Ov 4-2, Un 10-4.

Today, a LOT to choose from.

Main Play
Overs in Furman 143 (8), Mercer 153' (8), and Abilene 144' (9)

New Play
Over in U Conn 131' (9'), G Tech 127 (10), Lamar 145 (9), Missouri 133 (12)

Under in Furman 143 (9), S Fran 148' (8'), Fordham 124 (10), Bradley 133' (8'), N Iowa 143' (8'),
Rutgers 151 (10), Incarnate 133 (12).

A lot to digest.

We have a conflict with Furman, Main Play says Ov, New Play says Un. I have one head-to-head match-up like this logged in my chart, New Play won, so I'll take the Un IF it doesn't drop off the board.
Going to buy some of the 10 or > spots, too.
I'm going to check the record of these teams in this spot and see if I find anything useful.

Update: Mizoo is 1-0 in this spot, diff was 11 on that one, got a diff of 12 today, so . . .

Update #2: U Conn is now (10')

Update #3: Furman line dropped 1/2 pt. now at (7') no longer qualifies as Main Play. I wanted to take it in the New Play Un if it was a head to head match-up, but it no longer fits.

Update #4: Added buy, Virg (11)

Buys:
Missouri/Miss Ov 133
Virg/G Tech Ov 126

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split. Hit with the original play (Mizzoo Over), lost with the add on (G Tech Ov, not even close.)
Record: 28-28

Main Play went 0-2. Furman was taken down as a Main play when the line went up, but it went back to 143 and closed at 143 so it qualified as a loss. Record 143-118, Ov 88-76, Un 55-42.
13 or > 28-19 Ov 17-14, Un 11-5.

Now let's talk about missed opportunity. From yesterday's post: "Good thing I didn't drop the new play after one bad day - Saturday - because it's 6-2 since then."
And yesterday? 9-2, including 7-0 on Unders!
That's 15-4 overall since Saturday.
So yeah, good thing I didn't drop it, but bad thing - I didn't play all of them (I had a few in pocket, including both games that lost.)

New Play record now 35-20 (63%), Ov 13-8, Un 22-12 (64%).
10 or > is 18-8 (69%), Ov 5-4, Un 13-4 (76%).
Anyone want to guess what plays I'm buying today?

Just finished 'capping. Anybody psyched to jump on some Unders in the New Play with me today?
Well, we're screwed. I got 7 plays - and they're all Overs. Ain't that a bitch!
I'll run the numbers again, but don't expect it to change anything. Very disappointing.

Main Play has one spot, Tex St/UT Arlington Ov 127 (8). I'm glad I developed a second system to get plays from, if I was relying on the Main Play I'd have no action at all.

New Play, Over in Austin Peay 143 (11), Wagner 143 (10') Portland 137 (15), Montana 138 (10),
Idaho 129 (11), Tenn St 129 (9).
Under in Belmont 162 (9).


Update: Okay, it was worth double-checking, I found an error.
E Kent/Belmont is an Under, not an Over. Question is - when to buy? Opened at 161', houses split between that and 162 right now. I have no feel for which way it is going to go. If it goes up a pt this becomes a 10 or > play. I'll wait and watch.

Update #2: 162 is disappearing, grabbing one before it's all 161'.
Update #3: I got 162 but they're mostly gone now. I won't use a number if more than half the board doesn't have it. Using numbers most people can't get is BS, so I'm changing mine from 162 to 161'.

Update #4: On my chart I found Wagner Ov is 1-0 on this spot so I'm adding it.
Found Belmont is 0-1 as an Under, went Ov 160 on Sat. Feb 6, when they put up a whopping 94 vs SIU.

Update #5: Morehead St no longer a play.

Buys:
Portland/Pacific Ov 137
E Kentucky/Belmont Un 161'
FD/Wagner Ov 143

 

[Coach Woody]

LETS HAVE A HUGE DAY.... My account can use it after the super bowl

 

[RBD]

Wish there were more Unders to choose from Coach, maybe tomorrow.

Good luck to you today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1, I'll take it, it gets me back above .500 heading into the weekend, down 1.9 in juice.
Hit the two early games, both Overs, missed with Un in Belmont.

Record: 30-29.

Main Play lost yesterday, 0-1. May drop it, it's a lot of work and has been trending down to 54%, may switch to 10 or > only as they are 28-19 overall and 76% on Unders.

New Play went 3-3, I did a decent job choosing spots to buy at 2-1.

Not a buy, but a fit for the new play, posting now because it's about to start, in case anyone is looking for an angle on it, Ill-Chi/IndyPurdue Ov 141 (12)

Today's spots to choose from:

Main Play
Over in Longwood 129' (9'), Merrimack 129' (8)

New Play
Over in Ill-Chi 141 (12), N Kentucky 139' (9'), Stetson 132' (8'), Liberty 135 (10), Bakersfield 135 (9),
Fla-Atl 146 (8), Oakland 146 (8), N Tex 126' (10'), Cleve St 138 (12), Seattle 138 (11)

Under in Canisius 141' (8'), Winthrop 142 (10), UAB 135 (10), Illinois 149 (13)

UAB 1-0 in this spot.
R. Morris is 0-1 (I may fade Oak/R. Morris and take it Un.)

Update: Fla Atl no longer qualifies. Bakersfield now (10)

Buys:
Canisius/Quinnipiac Un 141'
Winthrop/Radford Un 142
UAB/La Tech Un 135
Det/Cleve St Ov 138
Ill/Neb Un 149

 

[Coach Woody]

I missed out on the Quinippic game..... wish I hadn't. when I got to it was at 125.5...Almost played over but laid off.

GREAT HIT on it.....Love it when a half point goes in favor of the good guys and not the book.

Trailing on the other four. Lets get them today with a 5-0 sweep

 

[RBD]

Yes, Coach, it's good to be on the right end of a half point decision, seems to be that more often than not I'm the short end of that stick, but it probably evens out in the end.

Recap: 4-0-1 last night. The Illinois game was Under by 17 points at the end of regulation, but the score was tied and we got the push in OT.

Record: 34-29

The Main Play split, 1-1. I'm tweaking the number to 10 or > now.

New Play was 10-2-1 (Anybody buy any of them???), including 3-0 on Unders. They're on a 12-1 run, but don't expect that to continue, and remember, last Saturday they were 4-8, so tread lightly today?

I'm putting in plays a couple at a time as I handicap today's card. It's a big Saturday card with a lot of games but I'm getting a ridiculous amount of plays.

Main Play has Ov in Furman 147' (10), Mercer 142 (10') McNeese 150' (10-)

New Play has Ov in K St 137 (10), Ohio St 136' (11'), Towson 134 (9), TCU 142 (11), Morgan St 150 (8), Cal Bap 145 (9), N Dak 142 (15), Wofford 136 (11), Montana 139' (8'), N Kentucky 141 (11), S Car 137 (9), Pacific 129' (9), Wagner 142 (11), Hawaii 134 (10).

Un in Chat 160 (15), Xavier Un 136 (9), Furman 147' (10'), Mercer 143 (11), Idaho 129 (9), Iowa 152' (11'), ' Bama 159 (11), Ark Pine 136 (10), Troy 136' (8'), S Dak St 160 (11), Alcorn St 147 (11), Gonzaga 156 (11).

Got a conflict with the Furman game.
Main Play says Ov, New Play says Un.
New Play is 2-0 head-to-head, so that's an easy choice to make. Same thing with the Mercer game.

Buys:
Citadel/Chat Un 160
U Conn/Xavier Un 136
W Car/Furman Un 147'
UNC Green/Mercer Un 143
Iowa/Mich St Un 152'
Georgia/'Bama Un 159
S Dak/N Dak Ov 142

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-4 yesterday. Didn't feel like it was going to be a good day so I stopped playing early in the day (never push it if you're not feeling it), happy to get out of it with just giving one unit back.

Record: 37-33

I'm tweaking the main play to 10 or >, using 8 was giving me flat results, and it was too time consuming.

New Play was 14-12 yesterday, not bad considering it was 8-11 last Saturday. I know there's no correlation between the two but I noted yesterday that Unders got killed last Saturday at 4-8, and they lost again yesterday at 5-6, after entering the day on, what was it, an 8-1 run?

Today, Main Play has one spot, S Dak St Un 163.

New Play has Ov in Towson 134', Norfolk 146, Cal Bap 142', N Dak 142', Loyola Mary 143.

Un in Elon 130, Hartford 131, Penn St 146'.

Neb and Penn St are each 1-0 in this spot, and it's a diff of 14'.

I don't like going back to a play I won on the previous day, and both teams had high shooting %'s yesterday, but I'm riding North Dak Over again because they are 3-0 in this spot, and it's a diff of 15'. The common number right now is 142' but I see a couple of 142 out there, so I'm waiting to buy and watching the line.

Buys:
Elon/Charleston Un 130'
Neb/Penn St Un 146'
S Dak/N Dak Ov 142
La Laff/Loyola Mary Ov 143

 

[RBD]

Recap: A 4-0 Sunday puts the cap on a pretty good week (15-6 I think.) Only bad day was Saturday and one reason for that (always study your losses and see what, if anything, you can do to improve) was - time; or lack it of it I should say.

Look at Friday and Sunday posts (and most days) and you'll see I gave the record for some teams in the spots they were in (Main Play or New Play spots.) You don't see that on Saturday because there's just not enough time to look through my logbook and track the record for every team, after having already spent hours 'capping the card looking for plays that fit.

Perfect example was yesterday, N Dak game. Anyone who reads my stuff (brave souls that you are) knows I don't like to come back and try to win a second time in a match-up I won the previous day. I prefer to keep the unit that I banked. But I took the N Dak/S Dak game Over again after cashing with it Saturday because I had time to check their records and I saw that N Dak was 3-0 in that spot (also, they had a diff of 15', and 13 or > in the New Play were at 5-0.)

Tweaking the Main Play to only diff's of 10 or > will leave me more time to do all the number crunching I want to do, even on Saturday's.

Record: 41-33

This week was how a season is supposed to work.
I start out searching for a formula that has a decent W %.
I play tight until I find one, not too many games per day, then open it up and hope the system I isolated continues to win and doesn't revert back to .500 as all situations do after a while.

Here's an update on the records of the plays I'll use this week.

Main Play, 10 or >, 2-2, Ov 2-1, Un 0-1.
This is the same play I've used all season, starting with any diff of 5 or >.
I could go back through my logbook and get the record of 10 or > only but that would take a tremendous amount of time, so I'll start over from 0-0. (I'll probably do the work mid-week, if I do I'll update the record here.) Main Play 13 or > is 28-19, Ov 17-14, Un 11-5.

New Play is 64-41, that's 61% with more than 100 plays, pretty good.
Ov 34-21 (62%), Un 32-20 (61%).
10 or > is 37-23 (61%), Ov 18-13 (58%), Un 19-10 (65%).
13 or > is 8-1, 7-1 Ov, 1-0 Un

Yesterday, I pointed out that Neb/Penn St was 14', and N Dak was 15'.
13 or > was 5-0, that's why I posted buys on both.
If you're thinking of taking a game I post this week, check back here for the records if you're interested.

Today's spots . . .

Main Play, E Tenn/Chatt Ov 132' (13)

New Play has Ov in Virg/Fla St 128 (11), E Tenn St/Chat 132' (9').
Un in Tex South/Jax St 139 (9), Hampton/Longwood 138 (8).

Have a Match play, both systems say take E Tenn StChat game Over.
Match Plays are 1-1, Ov 1-0, Un 0-1.
E Tenn is 0-2 in New Play Over Chat is 0-1. At a combined 0-3, I'll lay off this one.
Tex Southern is 0-1 in this spot.

At a diff of 11, Virg is worth a look, line seems to be dropping, I'll wait, will post if I buy.

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

No plays yesterday.
Posted plays went 0-1 Main Play, 1-2 New Play.

From yesterday: "E Tenn is 0-2 in New Play Over, Chat is 0-1. At a combined 0-3, I'll lay off this one."
Like I said last week, why gather data if I don't use it?
It was a good move to lay off the play, but it would have been a really good move to fade it, as E Tenn/Chat stayed Under by 28 pts! A combined 0-3 was enough data to use as a fade.

Same with Virginia. Not a team I like to use on an Over, but they had a diff of 11, and in the New Play 10 or > Over was 18-13 (58%), now 19-13 (59%) as the game sailed Ov by 18.

That's two easy, double digit wins I left on the table. I like to show, by example, that you don't have to bet every day, it's better to pick your spots, but I was a little too conservative yesterday.

Today, New Play . . .

Ov in Akron 136 (8), Georgia 152' (9'), Fairleigh Dick 158 (8), and Wagner, with Wagner at > 15.
(What's the record on New Play 13 or >? Anyone?)

Un in Nebraska 137 (9)


Wagner is 3-0 in this spot, Mt St Mary's 0-0.
Fairleigh is 1-0, St. Francis 1-0
Mizzoo is 2-0
Neb is 1-0, Maryland is 1-0

Update: Added play, saw it too late to post before tip off, for record keeping or live bets, Iowa St Un 148.

Update #2: Georgia now at 151, makes it 10 or >.


Buys:
Wagner/Mt St Mary's Ov 123'
Mizoo/Georgia Ov 151

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2.

My first score check on Wagner Ov 123' saw 0-0 at the 17 minute mark. I did a double take, but that's where the game was at, 0 pts scored by either team in the first three minutes.
By game's end Wagner did their part, scoring 61, but 4 pt Fav St Mary's - who avg's 63 pts per game - put up a sinful 39. Bitches better say penance and be ready for atonement because I have a feeling I may use them again today IF they qualify as a New Play. (Update - just 'capped the game, they don't fit. I may play it anyway, they shot 27% FG & 15% 3 pt range, they HAVE to do better than that, right?)

Geo Ov/Un pace was back and forth all night, ended up staying Un by a basket, aided by a couple missed FT's in the final minute. Ouch.

Record: 41-35

New Play went 3-2-1 last night, which means I sucked at choosing as I used the two losers (can't be too hard on myself though, both had strong #'s supporting the buys.)
Did a mid-day line check and saw that the Iowa St game qualified because of late line moves, saw it one minute before it was taken off the betting board. Just wasn't a lucky day.

Main Play (10 or > 2-2, Ov 2-2, Un 0-0; 13 or > 28-20, Ov 17-15, Un 11-5.)
Ov in W Car, Mercer (>13)

Mercer is 1-1 in this spot, E Tenn St is 1-4, combined 2-5, fade it.

New Play (70-45, Ov 36-24, Un 34-21; 10 or > 38-25, Ov 19-15, Un 14-10; 13 or > Ov 7-2, Un 1-0)
Ov in Citadel, Depaul, (*correction - Mizzo St is an Un)
Un in Samford, S Fla, Nebraska, Az St, Mizoo St

I feel like opening up today.

Update: Make Citadel 154. I got 153, but my # is usually better than what I post due to multiple outs. When I post, I try to use the common number, when the board is split I want at least 3-4 houses to have the # I post. I was just doing a line check/double check and I see 153/153' was only available for a short time this morning, meaning most couldn't get it. A couple places have 154 still so I'll use that in fairness to anyone who may want to ride it.

Update #2: "They shot 27% FG & 15% 3 pt range, they HAVE to do better than that, right?"
Wrong.
First 5 minutes, the little Mary's are shooting 13% FG, and 0-2, 0% from 3 pt range.
Mountaineers? No. They should be called the Mount St. Mary's Magoo's.

Update #3: Tied 55-55, 4 seconds left, looks like I have a very good shot at an OT win.
Only thing that can screw me is if someone is moronic enough to foul and give the other team free throws.
And a sub-genius named Mezie Offurum raises his hand and says, "I'm your man!"

Buys:

Mercer/E Tenn St Un 136'
Samford/Furman Un 150
Citadel/Wofford Ov 153' - changed to 154
S Fla/Central Fla Un 129'
Az St/USC Un 147 (corrected 148)
Depaul/S Hall Ov 139
Mizoo St/S Ill Un 136'
Wagner/St Mary's Ov 123 Loser

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-5 last night. I'm playing with house money so I wanted to open up a bit to try and take advantage of the plays I'm using before they revert back to .500. Ended up giving back two units.

Record: 44-40. With juice factored in, I'm back to playing my money.

ALWAYS TAKE A MINUTE TO ANALYZE YOUR PLAY, see what you can learn from it and use in the future.
What I did right:

Stayed off Nebraska Under (only New Play I didn't buy). It went Ov by 15 pts.

Faded Mercer Over in the Main Play. This was a perfect example of what I mean when I say "use the data I have accumulated." The two teams were a combined 1-5 in this Ov spot, so I went Un, and got a 1 pt win.

What I did wrong:

Played too many games, went 3-5. But that's okay. I was on house money, and it's okay to go crazy once in a while.

Today, nothing in the Main Play, but the New Play spit out a few spots to choose from.

Ov in Longwood, BYU, Southern Utah, St Fran, Montana, Fresno, Cal

Un in Iowa, Vermont, Ohio St, Winthrop, Idaho, Stanford.

I'll do a check on the record for these teams in this play, and post #'s if I find anything interesting.

Before making any decisions, here's an update on this play:
72-50, 59%. At well over one-hundred plays, 59% is pretty damned good.

Ov 36-26, Un 36-24; Un are slightly better, 58% (Ov) to 60% (Un)

10 or > is 39-27, 62%; Ov 19-16, Un 20-11;
Ov just 54%, profitable but barely, Un are great at a solid 64.5%.

13 or > is 8-2, Ov 7-2, Un 1-0.

At 59% it's easy to make the case to remove all thinking/choosing and just play them all, but I'll try to be a little more selective than that today.

BYU/Pacific and Winthrop/High Pt are both 15 or > so I bought those two already.
BYU is 0-0 in this spot, Pacific is 2-0. Winthrop is 1-0, High Pt 0-0.

Iowa is 2-0, Wisc 0-0; adding it.
Longwood 0-0, Charleston 1-0, missed best # at 131, but adding it.
Ohio St is 1-0, Penn St is 2-0, adding it.
Montana 2-0, adding it.

Buys:
Longwood/Charleston Ov 132
Ohio St/Penn St Un 146
Iowa/Wisc Un 145
BYU/Pacific Ov 136
Winthrop/High Pt Un 146'
Montana/E Wash Ov 146

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-2-1 last night.
Record: 47-42

Back in black, slightly. As I pointed out in my first posts in this thread, Kid's Ball is a sport I don't normally handicap, so with almost 90 buys made and my head still above water I'm feeling pretty good.

With about a week left to go in the regular season, my goal is to try and bank a few units to use in the tournaments. Problem is - I notice this week I've been playing more games, feeling like having a little more action going. I expect it to continue through the weekend. Hopefully I'm still profitable come Monday.

Main Play had nothing yesterday.
New Play went 6-6-1, so I did alright picking spots and coming up with a 3-2-1 day.
Could have just as easily been a 1-5 day, or 5-1, had the push in Longwood (which was at a great pace at halftime, total was 132 and I had 75 at halftime, needing only 58 for the win.) I think at least three other games were decided by 4 pts or fewer ("fewer" NOT "less") and I got the W in Winthrop by a hook.

Today's spots:

Main Play has no plays again today.
Since moving the differentiator to 10 pts or > I'm not getting anything to choose from, may go back to 8?

New Play has . . .

Ov in Detroit, Oakland, Wright St, Denver, Lipscomb, N Mex St, Bakersfield

Un in Winthrop, Monmouth, Cal-Riverside, Buffalo, UNLV.

I remember last Friday this play went 10-2-1, Ov 7-2, Un 3-0-1.
Day of the week is, for the most part, irrelevant in handicapping, right?
But then there's this - I started posting this new play on Wed, Feb 2.
There have been two Fridays since then, the 11-2-1 noted above on 2/12, and the previous Friday, 2/5, when it was 6-1.
Combined that's 16-3-1, Ov 8-2, Un 8-1-1.
Not the kind of numbers a guy who wants to stay conservative to close out the season and not go action crazy needs to see.

Det, Oak, Wright, Monmouth and UNLV all qualify as 10 or >.

R. Morris is 1-0 on this spot, Det 1-0.
Oak 1-0, N Kentucky 1-1, Winthrop 2-0, HighPoint 1-0, Monmouth 1-0, Denver 1-0, Kennesaw St 1-0, N Mex St 1-0, Bakersfield 1-0, UC Santa Barb 1-0.

Nothing in the records to deter me from buying anything.
Not going to try and get another W from Winthrop after barely escaping with a hook win yesterday.

Update - Kennesaw St is no longer a play; line went up, < 8 now.

Buys:

R. Morris/Detroit Ov 143
Oak/Wisc-Milw Ov 151
Monmouth/Iona Un 153'
CalRiver/UC San Diego Un 135'
Toledo/Buff Un 164
UNLV/San Jose St Un 145
Bakersfield.Cal Santa Barb Ov 130'

 

[RBD]

Adding . . . Den and Kennesaw spots.

Buys:
R. Morris/Detroit Ov 143 W
Oak/Wisc-Milw Ov 151 W
Monmouth/Iona Un 153'
CalRiver/UC San Diego Un 135'
Toledo/Buff Un 164
UNLV/San Jose St Un 145
Bakersfield.Cal Santa Barb Ov 130'
Den/Missouri Ov 127
Kennesaw/Lip Ov 135

 

[RBD]

Recap: 6-3, put a few more units in the bank.
Record: 53-45.

New Play went 8-4 last night.
The record for Fridays since I've been tracking this system is now 24-7-1. Day of the week should be irrelevant, but there it is anyway at 77%.

Main Play today has Ov in Mich St, UNC Green, Un in Montana.

New play has . . .

Ov in Mich St, Navy, U Conn, Lehigh, S Utah, BYU, Texas, Army, Detroit, Oakland, Wright St, Mia-Oh, Miss St, Virginia

Un in Citadel, Auburn, Richmond, Pepperdine, N Car, LIU, DePaul, Cal Bap.

New Play 10 or > are Navy, Lehigh, Auburn, LIU, Virginia
New Play 13 or > Citadel

Back with buys after I check some records.
Note - this play has been below average the last two Saturdays.

U Conn 0-2 in this spot, Villanova 0-1, fade material.
VMI 1-0, Citadel 1-1. Loyola Maryland 1-0. Cal Sac 1-1,
S Utah 1-0. Indy 1-0. BYU 0-1, Loyola Marymount 1-0.
W Virginia 1-0, Texas 0-1.

Update: I wanted to watch a few early games to see how the plays were doing today. Typical Saturday, approx .500.
I'll likely take the day off.

 

[RBD]

21 buys Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Zero buys Saturday, the day with the most games of the week.
Why?
Because I keep a logbook.

Because, like I warned yesterday, the plays I use are below average on Saturdays.

I know this because the charts in my logbook tell me the last two Saturdays the New Play was a combined 22-23.

And because you don't HAVE to bet every day.

Yesterday's results?
Main Play 1-2, New Play 8-14.
Taking the day off was the right move.
Fading would have been an even better move.

Today spots:

Main Play Ov in Wagner.
New Play Ov in UNLV 144' (10'), Bryant,
W Mich.
Un in Stony Brook, and Iowa 157' (13').

Update: 158 are gone, board split now, grab the 157' if you like Penn State Under.

Buys:
Penn St/Iowa Un 157'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Nailed a winner with Penn St/Iowa Un.
Record: 54-45

Anyone ride Iowa Un with me?
The record on these plays is usually in the Monday post in case anyone is looking at a game I have circled, but I should have noted yesterday that 13 or > on Unders in the New Play were 12-5, 70%; 13-5 now.
I did note that Iowa was 13'.

Updated records:

Main Play at 10 or > 4-5, Ov 4-4, Un 0-1.
13 or > is 28-21, Ov 17-16, Un 11-5.

New Play 96-76, Ov 50-41, Un 46-35.
10 or > is 47-36, Ov 23-22, Un 24-14.
13 or > is 31-21, Ov 18-16, Un 13-5.

So, what do I have to work with as we close out the regular season?
Buy any Un in the Main Play if it's 13 or >.
Buy any Un in the New Play at any number, but especially 13 or >.

The rest are average, no Fade material to use.

I also know (though there's no reason for it) Fridays are a great day to play any New Plays, 28-7-1, 80%,
while Saturdays should be avoided or used to Fade Unders (11-20, 65% Fade material.)

Okay, got a few things to work with this week.
Today . . .

Main Play has one spot, UNC Green/W Car Ov.
W Car is 3-0 in this spot, but UNC Green is 2-4. No edge, no buy. (W Car team total Ov 67 maybe?)

New Play has Ov in Drake, N Orleans, N Mex
Un in Citadel, Hou Bap, Alcorn St

Citadel (Un 157) and Hou Bap (Un 157) are 10 or >.

Citadel is 2-1 in this spot, Mercer 0-1.
N'Western St is 1-0. If this # goes up to 158 I'll buy it.
Alcorn St is 2-0. If this # goes up to 137 or > I may buy it.

Had a lot of fun, action last week, came out of it okay, but I'm going to be a little more selective this week.
No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

Can't get 158 to make it a 13 or > than, but . . .

Buys:
Hou Bap/N'West St Un 157'