College Hoops 2020

[RBD]

Recap: Lost with Butler Ov.
Had a good pace at the half, but with Butler shooting just 34% U Conn didn't need to score much in the second half, and they put in 13 fewer than their first half.

Record: 22-19.

I have no 13 or > again today, but have three spots that fit the 8 pt minimum.
Geo/S Car Un 159 (8')
Hou Bap/Incarnate Ov 148 (8)
Miss/Ark Ov 140' (8')

As you can see, they barely qualify and if the lines move down 1 pt on S Car it no longer is a play,
if it goes up a half pt or > Hou Bap no longer fits, up a pt in Ark and it no longer fits.

Records in these spots:
Geo 0-1, S Car 0-0
Hou Bap 1-2, Incarnate 2-0
Miss 0-1, Ark 0-0

Not much to choose from, ugly games, lousy teams, lousy numbers.
If I'm smart, I'll take the day off, and wait for a 13 or > or Saturday.
IF.

 

[RBD]

I'm glad yesterday's write-up included the numbers necessary to determine whether the spots stayed as plays or not, in case anyone was considering buying them:
(they barely qualify and if the lines move down 1 pt on S Car it no longer is a play, if it goes up a half pt or > Hou Bap no longer fits, up a pt in Ark and it no longer fits.)

Both games fell off the chart after the lines moved (Bap closed 148', diff of 7, Ark closed 142', diff of 6') and both spots lost. The only game that remained was Geo/ S Car, which stayed Under.

I had no buys.

Two games fit the profile of 8 or > tonight.
N Tex/Rice Ov 135' (11)
N Mex/Fresno St Ov 129' (14)

You know I don't like N Mex in Overs, but at a diff of 14 it qualifies for 13 or >.
On 1/23 I gave a chart update: 13 or > 28-16, Ov 17-4, Un 11-5.
There have been no spots since then, so the record is the same, which means N Mex is in a 17-4 spot.
I have to take it, right?

The last time New Mex was a play (Ov the base #8 though, not 13 or >) was 1/18, N. Mex/UNLV Ov 137 (9').
Here is my write-up:

I watched a New Mex game two weeks ago and made a note to try and avoid using them in Overs.
Their typical possession goes like this:
in-bound the ball,
slow walk it up the court,
stand at the top of the key and dribble the shot clock down until there are only a few seconds left,
take a lousy shot and miss,
wash, rinse, repeat.

I just checked their record, and . . . 2 Overs, 7 Unders.
Confirms what my note advises.

Despite their record of 2-7 on Ov/Un's I bought the N. Mex/UNLV game because posted plays were 16-6 for the week and I only bought four of the 22 spots.
So I decided to open up my play a little.

The result: UNLV 53, New Mex 46.
The game stayed Under by 38 pts. THIRTY-EIGHT!!!
As of today, they are 3-9 Ov/Un and have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games.

So, do I really have to buy them tonight because of the diff of 14?
Twice they've been at 13 or >, and they're 1-1.

Maybe Fresno has been in this spot with profitable results?
A quick check of the log book says . . . no. They have not been in this spot before.

It's a tough call, a situational record of 17-4 (all teams) vs a specific team (N Mex) based trend of 3-9.
I think I have enough info to make my call . . .

Buys:
N Tex/Rice Ov 135'

Scratch that, no buy on Rice. When I started this write-up the game was 135'. I just did a final line check before hitting "submit" and buying the game, and it's up two full pts to 137', taking the diff from 11 to 9.
I'm not buying a game where I missed the best # by two points, my play has been too unsteady lately.
If I was running hot I might, but not now.
If I'm off Rice that only leaves me with . . . no. I'm not buying N Mex in an Over, not at 3-9.

Unless they're on TV?


Update: New Mex is on CBS Sports Network tonight, damn it!
In my near future, I see a night of heavy frustration, lots of cursing at my TV, imploring the Lobos to "Shoot the damn ball already! Even if you miss it's better than just standing there doing nothing until the shot clock expires you MORONS!!!"
And if I'm going into battle, I'm not relying on New Mex alone to get me through the night without heavy casualties to my bankroll, so I'm buying Rice, too. The hook has dropped off half the houses now. At 135' (when I should have bought it) I would have needed 136 to win. It's at 137 now, just a pt more, so what the hell, with a record of 22-19 I'm still playing on the house's dime. At least for one more night . . .

Buys:
N Tex/Rice Ov 137
N Mex/Fresno St Ov 129' (Betagame has it at 128', so I bought it, but 129' is at most houses so I'll use that here. But if you're thinking if buying it, wait, it might drop at other houses, too. And with the Lobos, we're going to need every edge we can get.)

Update: Rice is off the board? WTF? Tried to buy at three outs, no line. I'm screwed if I have to rely on New Mex tonight. Back with a buy if the game hasn't been Covid'd.

Buys:
N Mex/Fresno St Ov 129' (Betagame has it at 128', so I bought it, but 129' is at most houses so I'll use that here. But if you're thinking if buying it, wait, it might drop at other houses, too. And with the Lobos, we're going to need every edge we can get.)

 

[jng]

I'm glad yesterday's write-up included the numbers necessary to determine whether the spots stayed as plays or not, in case anyone was considering buying them:
(they barely qualify and if the lines move down 1 pt on S Car it no longer is a play, if it goes up a half pt or > Hou Bap no longer fits, up a pt in Ark and it no longer fits.)

Both games fell off the chart after the lines moved (Bap closed 148', diff of 7, Ark closed 142', diff of 6') and both spots lost. The only game that remained was Geo/ S Car, which stayed Under.

I had no buys.

Two games fit the profile of 8 or > tonight.
N Tex/Rice Ov 135' (11)
N Mex/Fresno St Ov 129' (14)

You know I don't like N Mex in Overs, but at a diff of 14 it qualifies for 13 or >.
On 1/23 I gave a chart update: 13 or > 28-16, Ov 17-4, Un 11-5.
There have been no spots since then, so the record is the same, which means N Mex is in a 17-4 spot.
I have to take it, right?

The last time New Mex was a play (Ov the base #8 though, not 13 or >) was 1/18, N. Mex/UNLV Ov 137 (9').
Here is my write-up:

I watched a New Mex game two weeks ago and made a note to try and avoid using them in Overs.
Their typical possession goes like this:
in-bound the ball,
slow walk it up the court,
stand at the top of the key and dribble the shot clock down until there are only a few seconds left,
take a lousy shot and miss,
wash, rinse, repeat.

I just checked their record, and . . . 2 Overs, 7 Unders.
Confirms what my note advises.

Despite their record of 2-7 on Ov/Un's I bought the N. Mex/UNLV game because posted plays were 16-6 for the week and I only bought four of the 22 spots.
So I decided to open up my play a little.

The result: UNLV 53, New Mex 46.
The game stayed Under by 38 pts. THIRTY-EIGHT!!!
As of today, they are 3-9 Ov/Un and have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games.

So, do I really have to buy them tonight because of the diff of 14?
Twice they've been at 13 or >, and they're 1-1.

Maybe Fresno has been in this spot with profitable results?
A quick check of the log book says . . . no. They have not been in this spot before.

It's a tough call, a situational record of 17-4 (all teams) vs a specific team (N Mex) based trend of 3-9.
I think I have enough info to make my call . . .

Buys:
N Tex/Rice Ov 135'

Scratch that, no buy on Rice. When I started this write-up the game was 135'. I just did a final line check before hitting "submit" and buying the game, and it's up two full pts to 137', taking the diff from 11 to 9.
I'm not buying a game where I missed the best # by two points, my play has been too unsteady lately.
If I was running hot I might, but not now.
If I'm off Rice that only leaves me with . . . no. I'm not buying N Mex in an Over, not at 3-9.

Unless they're on TV?


Update: New Mex is on CBS Sports Network tonight, damn it!
In my near future, I see a night of heavy frustration, lots of cursing at my TV, imploring the Lobos to "Shoot the damn ball already! Even if you miss it's better than just standing there doing nothing until the shot clock expires you MORONS!!!"
And if I'm going into battle, I'm not relying on New Mex alone to get me through the night without heavy casualties to my bankroll, so I'm buying Rice, too. The hook has dropped off half the houses now. At 135' (when I should have bought it) I would have needed 136 to win. It's at 137 now, just a pt more, so what the hell, with a record of 22-19 I'm still playing on the house's dime. At least for one more night . . .

Buys:
N Tex/Rice Ov 137
N Mex/Fresno St Ov 129' (Betagame has it at 128', so I bought it, but 129' is at most houses so I'll use that here. But if you're thinking if buying it, wait, it might drop at other houses, too. And with the Lobos, we're going to need every edge we can get.)

Rice postponed

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD I will buy with you

My college basketball luck has been very very very bad this year.

I can't seem to be on the right side of any play....but tonight because you are worried about N. MEX and I would agree with the slow play.....IT HAS TO GO OVER:mj07::mj07::mj07::mj07::mj07:

Lets win one we normally might not:toast:

 

[RBD]

Thanks for the update, jng.

Coach, thanks joining me in being a masochist tonight, we're just asking for punishment with this pick.

Would have liked to have Rice for backup in case the Lobos play like Lobos tonight.
Maybe I'll come up with a second play. Thought I was done 'capping for the day, I guess not.

 

[Trucker Gambler]

RBD hey bud I tail you quite a bit and tonight I am all over Kansas going over half and game and like Mississippi, New Mexico is just awful to the over so I cant jump on that but I did play Fresno.....Good Luck I love your write ups I am spending the weekend at casino so i hope to run your plays all weekend

 

[Coach Woody]

Watched that first half.

U G L Y

They are bad.
Need a HUGE second half

 

[Coach Woody]

I am my own worse emmy and why I should stop.

College basketball has a way of absolutely screwing me.

Bought over at 128.5 NewMexico
Watching first half of was it ugly basketball.
So I bought back at 124.5 under.

19-19 first half way equals 38. Feeling great
34-34 second half points 68 was under but wait overtime.
98 points... Still good thinking they can't score that many in 5,min. So what are the chances.

Yup 20 and middled. The wrong was....Son of a only to me. Got screwed on both ends.

Love gambling

 

[RBD]

Recap:

"THANK YOU SIR, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?"

WHACK!

"THANK YOU SIR, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER?"

WHACK!


Record: 22-20.

Well Coach, we got what we asked for, and deserved, with that play.
We KNOW Los Lobos suck, but we bet them in an Over anyway.
They started the game 1-13 from the field, and finished at 1-9 (11%) from 3 pt range. And we lost by 2' pts.

And getting OT, but still losing on the Over?
That was the gambling Gods twisting the knife, to teach us a lesson.

Trucker - Good luck at the casino this week, hopefully Saturday Unders will hold recent form and provide a few much needed winners. (Reminder, from last Saturday's post - "Saturday's, the record on Unders is 16-7. There's no rhyme or reason for it, but it's 2-0 today, so 18-7 overall.")
An update on that - this morning, while checking Long Beach's record in the play I use here (because they qualify as a play again today) I saw that I graded them correctly as a Win last Saturday, but posted them with the Overs. My # was 150, the books' was 159. The game was an Under, so Saturday Unders are 19-7.
I'm playing them all, and not doing any extra 'capping on them that might make me stay off a play.


Today, a weird Friday, a lot of spots qualify:

Overs in N Tex/Rice 136' (10), La Laf/Tex St 131' (9'), Longwood/Presby 126' (8), N Dak St/UMKC 120 (8')

Unders in Monmouth/Niagra 146' (8), UC San Diego/Long Beach 153 (11'), Stetson/Fla Gulf 137 (9)

I liked that Rice game yesterday, buying it today.

Looking at the record of some of these teams in the same spot previously this year, I see:
Mon 1-2, Niagra 1-0 (no help there); La Laf 1-0, Tex St 2-0 (combined 3-0, hello)
Longwood 3-4, Presby 3-1 (combined 6-5, no edge there); Stetson 1-3, Fla Gulf 0-0 (possible fade)

Buys:
N Tex/Rice Ov 136'
La Laf/Tex St Ov 131'

Update: La Laf line now at 133', which means the difference is now below 8 pts. No longer qualifies as a play on my charts, but I already bought it so it counts as a play here. Monmouth line dropped, no longer fits.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split at 1-1, got tagged with a loss because I bet a game early that ended up not being a play because of the line change. Should have been a 1-0 day.

Record: 23-21

Not enough time to cap this whole card and get possible plays posted before tip-off. So I'll do it in piecemeal, with multiple updates, getting the early games done first. Back asap.

Update: I was just updating records on my chart before I started 'capping today's games, when I spotted this gem:
13 or > is 28-16, Ov 17-4, Un 11-5.
The record on losses is way off, 16 games in the total record but only nine in the breakdown of Over/Under.
WTF??!!
Now I have to lose time going over the charts to correct that before I can start handicapping. Sorry about the wrong numbers.

Update: Found the error. My log is handwritten, and my handwriting is bad, I wrote an 11 that look like a 4 on the record for Overs. Correct record is:
28-17, Ov 17-12, Un 11-5.

Update #2: Nothing on the early games. Disappointing. On the huge Saturday cards I average about 12 to 15 plays, including a couple morning games.

Update #3: Very disappointing card. Not a single Under.
Waiting all week to try this out, and I got nuttin'.

Only five plays all Overs, including a couple retreads from yesterday and the dreaded New Mexico.

Longwood 122' (13')
La Laf 131' (9)
New Mex 127 (14)
Manhattan 119' (8')

So pissed I don't have any Unders, should probably take the day off but I want some action so I'll take a shot at the game with the 13' pt differential.

Buys:
Longwood/Presby Ov 122'

 

[RBD]

Common knowledge - don't drive when you're angry, and don't bet when you're angry.

Like I said, I didn't get the Unders I was waiting all week for, should have taken it as a sign, took the day off.
But no.
I take Presby Ov 122'.
Game lands on 120.

Well, in my mind the path is clear.
I know what I must do.
Added buy . . .
N Mex/Fresno St Ov 127 (14)
(At this point, my friends should consider an intervention for me.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Dropped both Saturday plays. No second guessing, they were both 13 or > spots, 17-12 at the time, I went with the strongest plays I had.

Unfortunately, one of them had the Lobos.

In their previous matchup with Fresno, New Mex started the game 1-13 from the field, and finished at 1-9 (11%) from 3 pt range. And I lost as the game stayed Un 229' by 2' pts. I picked up 2' pts on the total, 227 this time, and I figured if the Lobos improve on either of those two stats, the game goes Over.
Easy enough, right?
Wrong!
They shot just 35% and scored seven pts FEWER this game. And I lost by that same number - seven.

If I EVER take an Over in a Lobos game again someone please contact Jack and ask him to put me on a one week suspension, for my own good.

Record: 23-23

At .500, I took the last two days off. No plays qualified Sunday anyway, one qualified yesterday, Wofford Un, it lost by 5'. Today, one game:
Tenn/Miss Ov 124 (10')

I'd like to buy it, I like the spot at 10', but at .500 I should wait for a 13 or > spot , the higher % plays.
I still have to run their records through the plays in my chart, see if either were in this spot before.
If I see a positive record on either team I may buy it, will post if I do.

 

[Trucker Gambler]

As you know you are a wealth of information......Ole Miss is 2-14 to the under and only scored 48 points in the last meeting with Tennessee I wish you the best RBD but I will not ever play Ole Miss as an over

 

[RBD]

I haven't had time to do a review of their records in this play, and now I don't have to.
Thanks for saving me the time, Trucker, I'm not touching this play either.

Wait - now I'm curious. I'll be back after I do a quick check.

Okay - no spots for Tenn, but Ole Miss has three.
And they are 0-3.
This, combined with your info Trucker - buy as a fade/take it Under?
Something to think about if I end up watching it later and want action.

Sorry I was of no help while you were at the casino last weekend, was sure I'd get at least 2-3 Unders to buy. Hope you had a profitable trip, or at least a fun one.

 

[Trucker Gambler]

No problem RBD Casino was a great time, as for my opinion I would simply pass on the game this is the lowest total I have seen with them but even so last time they scored 48 and lost by 25 it still does not make the 124......I did not play the total but I hit Tennessee at 3.5 just played it actually, I dont understand the line move but maybe I am the crazy one here

 

[RBD]

Trucker G, I don't usually second guess decisions, but I'm thinking we should have faded that play on Miss Over that we were discussing. They were 0-3 in the system I use here, and as you noted, 2-14 to the Under, and only 48 pts scored in their last game. The already low total of only 124 went up to 125' by game time, and . . . it STILL stayed under by 23' pts. At 0-3 I should have faded. This speaks to what I was talking about in my NBA thread today, about better utilizing the numbers in my charts.

Anyway . . .

No play fit yesterday so I didn't do an update. But it's a good thing nothing fit, maybe, because when the "Differential of 8 or >" play didn't kick out any spots I started looking for something else to use. I charted a new situational play, and . . . it went 4-1, Ov 2-1, Un 2-0.
One day means nothing, but it's worth charting again for a few days to see if it has any value.

Why do all my plays use Ov/Un's and not Favs/Dogs?
Because I keep a log book.
And more than fifteen years of charting plays shows me I have more success with totals than sides, so that's where I spend my time handicapping and that's where I invest my money.

Every business keeps books. They record expenses, profits and loss.
And they use those numbers to improve their profitability.
You should look at your sports betting as a business.
If you're doing fine as a capper, congrats, keep doing what's working for you.
But if you're not - start keeping a data base or logbook of your play. Review it. Analyze it.
Find your strengths and increase those plays, isolate your weak areas and decrease those plays.
It WILL improve your bottom line.

Today, one game fits.
Wag/St Fran NY Ov 139 (8')

Normally I would lay off this spot at 8', wait for a 10 or >, but I'm going to buy it because it's also a fit in the spot I started charting yesterday (if anyone's interested, here are those spots: Over in Wagner, Radford, Stanford, Under in Rutgers and Montana.) I don't know yet if it has value, but the new play certainly seems to kick out more plays to choose from.

At 23-23 I'm playing with my money, not house money, but you only live once and I feel like having some fun today (my basketball unit is MUCH smaller than my college football unit, so if my "fun" turns out to be "not fun" the damage is minimal.) I'm buying the Wagner spot because it fits both situational plays I'm tracking, and I'm also buying Rutgers because the new play is 2-0 on Unders, so what the heck, I'll buy them until one loses (plus, I'm a Piscataway boy and they'll be on TV tonight so I want a rooting interest.)

Like I said, I feel like having some fun today so I may add plays later, but for now . . .

Buys:
Wagner/St Fran NY Ov 139
Minn/Rutgers Un 140'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split, hit with Ov in Wagner, missed with Rutgers Un.
Record: 23-23

This weekend should see a few buys, hoping for some Saturday Unders, especially if I can get a match like I had on Wagner yesterday.

Reviewing numbers as we head into the weekend:

Base Play: 140-110, Ov 85-69, Un 55-41.
Not bad really, 30 games above .500.
A W % of 56% at 250 plays is actually pretty good, an action junkie wagering $110/$110 each game would be at +$1,900.00, which is a hell of a lot better than where I'm at picking and choosing spots.

13 or > is 28-19 (59%), Ov 17-14, Un 11-5.
Again, not bad, but not getting enough plays.

The new thing I tracked the last two days was just 2-3 on posted spots yesterday, 6-4 now, 3-3 Ov, 3-1 Un. I'll keep tracking and posting spots over the weekend, by Monday I'll have enough data to continue tracking, or drop it and look for something else to use.

Today's spots:
Little Rock/Tex St Ov 127 (8)
Charl/Mid Tenn St Ov 122 (8')
La Tech/N Tex Ov 131 (8)

All Overs, all just barely qualify for the base play of 8 or >.
If the common number on Tex St and N Tex rises even a half point higher than the numbers above they no longer qualify. Same for Charlotte if it rises 1 pt.
I think N Tex has been good in this spot, I'll check records and add an update if it's worthwhile.

For the other play I'm tracking:
Over in N Dak, Dayton
Unders in Little Rock, Cal Davis, Bellamarine, Maryland, UTEP, Monmouth

L Rock, Maryland, Dayton & Monmouth barely qualify,
I'll try to and an update if line moves eliminate them as plays.

Update: N Dak still has a couple minutes left but it just went Over. Here's why that might be important - I've been using the same base differential on this new spot as the one I use in the other play I track - 8 pts.
I played N Dak today because it had the highest diff of the day at 13; all other plays were 8, 8', 9 or 9' except UTEP which is at 12.
I checked yesterday's spots and saw that games with a differential of 10 or > are 5-0, Ov 2-0, Un 3-0.
This gave me an extra rooting interest on the N Dak game.
6-0 now.

Hoping this spot stays profitable for at least a few days.
Really looking forward to Saturday.

Update #2: Charlotte line went up; no longer qualifies.
Update #3: Dayton no longer qualifies
Update #4: It just started but for record keeping, Cal-Davis closed 153', diff was 9' at 152', now 10'.


Buys:
N Dak/Den Ov 141
UTEP/UAB Un 135'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0 using two spots from the new play. After N Dak went Over I posted an update noting that 10 or > in the spot were now 6-0, with one spot left to be played, UTEP. I hope somebody saw this and took a shot on the game. It stayed Under by 21 points.

Record: 25-23

The main play went 0-2, that's okay because I didn't buy them, and because the new play went 6-1. Even the play that I updated as no longer a fit, Dayton, won, so congrats to anyone who bought it early.
That play is now:
12-5, Ov 4-3, Un 8-2, 10 or > 7-1, Ov 2-0, Un 5-1.

There were two spots yesterday, one in college one in NBA, where the two plays I'm using went head to head, each play giving the opposite of the other (Little Rock in college.)
The new play won both spots, so if I have any H2H spots today you know which way I'm leaning.

Big card, so I'll have to update in pieces as I do the handicapping. I probably won't be able to do updates on plays that get dropped or get added because of line changes, so if anyone is playing along with these pay attention to the number in parentheses, it can tell you whether games are still a fit or not.

Back asap with plays.

Over in: N Tex 130' (9'), McNeese 154' (8'), E Tenn St 137 (9'), Tenn St 133' (8), Little Rock 125' (9'), Kentucky 125' (10')

Under in: Washington 147 (10')

New play (there's a lot).

Over in Fordham 124' (8'), Towson 133' (9'), Belmont 149' (8'), Drexel 136' (8'), N Dak 143 (13), E Tenn 136 (10), Tro 128 (8), Tenn Tech 139 (9), Omaha 153' (8')

Under in W Car 166 (12), Tex San Ant 157 (9), Kansas 141' (9'), Syracuse 135 (9), Providence 145 (8), Coastal Car 146 (9), Miss Valley St 143 (10), Texas Rio Grand 143' (10).

A lot to analyze. I'll add buys throughout the day.

Update: Drexel line dropped, no play.
Added new play: N 'Bama Un 142 (10), Oral Roberts Un 140 (9)

Update: Mistake, sorry, Belmont is an Under not an Over. game could go either way right now but I wanted the record to be correct.


Buys:
Wash/Oregon Un 147
Citadel/W Carolina Un 166

 

[RBD]

Adding a few.
Left Youngstown State Ov 142' (10') off new play list in the post above.

And another correction, sorry, before the game starts, Troy is an Under not an Over.

Buys:
Wash/Oregon Un 147
Citadel/W Carolina Un 166
Coastal Car/S 'Bama Un 147
Youngstown St/Robert Morris Ov 142'
Miss Valley St/ 'Bama A&M Un 144'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-3
Record: 27-26

After a solid 12-5 start, the new system crapped out on me, going 8-11.

No spots in the basic system, new play has a few.

Ov in Coppin 151 (8),
Un in Stony Brook 134' (9), Evansville 123 (113), Ind St 138 (9).

Buys:
Stony Brook Un 134'