college plays for 10/27-11/1....

[joefrog91]

I agree with the towel tosser comment on CSU. Like I said last week, SDSt was the play because of CSU quitting against TCU and it's the same this week.

AF will triple option CSU to death. The only way CSU can stay in this game is if they start connecting down-field and I don't see it happening against the sticky-fingered AF secondary.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate all of the comments....

 

[AR182]

I agree with the towel tosser comment on CSU. Like I said last week, SDSt was the play because of CSU quitting against TCU and it's the same this week.

AF will triple option CSU to death. The only way CSU can stay in this game is if they start connecting down-field and I don't see it happening against the sticky-fingered AF secondary.

joe, i think you have convinced me to keep my af play....

 

[AR182]

made a few plays earlier today....will have writeups asap....

under 49 gt / vandy....
under 48 miss st / kentucky....
under 63(130) e. mich. /ark....
under 44(120) akron / n. ill....
under 43 temple / navy....
under 44 wyom. / utah....
under 48(130) mich. st. / minn....
iowa st+7.5....
col.+4....

good luck....

 

[djv]

Your going to find more the 20 you like. :00hour Well then heres :mj06:
Don,t forget to sleep onec in awhile :142smilie :SIB GL

 

[arrow]

ar

ar

glad your doing great, havent had much time to post lately as i have a few more clients this year and really watching early moves and not much later except injuries and weather. I would take a second look at the iowa state game as i think with there miracle win last week a game i was heavy on the half time and game unders. nebraska should of beat em by at least 4 touchdowns as they turned the ball over 4 times inside the 5 yard line, and 8 times total. I think a&m will be able to control the clock and be able to run. great job so far buddy! ARROW

 

[Axle]

Great job AR..... Last week Stanford saved my :moon: .... thanks for that head's up... LOL...

I like the USC and Michigan plays a lot....


:SIB

 

[hawkeye]

Update on AF--Dietz their starting QB last 2 games is out for the year. That means Jefferson the previous starter will start this week. He should be healither but is still hobbled. Gl. That's always a great game

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

i have decided to keep my air force play & here's a few reasons why....

af's defense is among the best in their conference so far....opposing teams have gained only 4.6 ypp against them in conference action....

this year they hung with both tcu (lost by 3) & utah, lost in ot)....

af should be able to move the ball consistently against a reeling csu team (lost 5 straight, with 3 of the losses by 2 tds or more), who has the 2nd worst def.in the conference vs. the run & worst against the pass....they gave up 5 td?s in the 2nd half to sdst, who was without their very good receiver vincent brown last week.....

recent injuries to linebacker kawulak & to the leader in the 2ndary senior safety kubiak make csu's defense even worse....

af beat csu last season 38-17 & the more that i have looked at this game the more i can't think of why af couldn't do it again....in that game, while csu packed the d-line with players to fight the af option attack, af threw the ball deep on csu
going 6 for 8 for 171 yards through the air....for this game, af will have jefferson back at qb for the offense & he is a better thrower than dietz(out with a broken hand) was....

over the last 3 seasons air force is 14-1 ats when the total is between 42.5 and 49....the average score was af 25.8, opponent 14.9....

over the last 3 seasons af is 8-0 ats in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49....the average score was af 29.0, opponent 17.3....


af is 4-4 on the season & is desperate for a win towards earning a spot in a bowl game....while csu has probably thown in the towel for the year....


good luck....

 

[rocky mountain]

Thx bro. I was staying with them also. Not as pretty as in years past, but they play tough defense and play hard!

GL

 

[AR182]

adding 2 totals....


under 48(125) rutgers / conn....

imo these 2 teams are mirror images of each other....neither one is going to come out & beat the other team through the air....what they like to do instead is control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball & wear the opposition down & wait for the other team to make a mistake....so i can't see this game going over a pretty generous total imo....

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (both teams apply) - in a game involving two opportunistic teams (2.5+ turnovers/game forced), in conference games....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....32-4....88.9%....

the average total posted in these games was....45.6....the average score in these games was.... team 17.2, opponent 17.2....total points scored....34.4....the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26....72.2% of all games....

the system's record this season is....8-0....100%....


under 48(125) penn st / nw....

penn st is # 1 in scoring defense & is allowing 8.9 ppg....5 of the 6 games that they have played against div 1 opponents has gone under the total & the game in which they have gone over (vs. illinois) scored 52 points....the others scores were....38,35,37,31,20, & 45....there mo this season appears to be to take a comfortable lead in a game & then kill the clock....at home this year the nw defense is allowing 21.4 ppg....

this season penn st is 6-0 under in games played on a grass field....the average score was penn st29.6, opponent 7.7....

as coach of psu paterno is 20-9 under vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better....the average score was penn st 22.4, opponent 21.4....

as coach of nw fitzgerald is 11-3 under off 1 or more straight overs....the average score was nw 22.3, opponent 23.4....


here is a list of who i have played so far this sat....

air force-2.5(120)....
oregon st.-9....
michigan-6.5(120)....
under 49 gt / vandy....
under 48 miss st / kentucky....
under 63(130) e. mich. /ark....
under 44(120) akron / n. ill....
under 43 temple / navy....
under 44 wyom. / utah....
under 48(130) mich. st. / minn....
iowa st+7.5....
col.+4....
under 48(125) rutgers / conn....
under 48(125) penn st / nw....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

Update on AF--Dietz their starting QB last 2 games is out for the year. That means Jefferson the previous starter will start this week. He should be healither but is still hobbled. Gl. That's always a great game

thanks hawk....appreciate the info....

 

[AR182]

Thx bro. I was staying with them also. Not as pretty as in years past, but they play tough defense and play hard!

GL

yeah....i just think this is a good play at the price that we got them at....& i saw earlier that the line went up to 5-5.5 across the board....

 

[joefrog91]

thanks guys....

i have decided to keep my air force play & here's a few reasons why....

af's defense is among the best in their conference so far....opposing teams have gained only 4.6 ypp against them in conference action....

this year they hung with both tcu (lost by 3) & utah, lost in ot)....

af should be able to move the ball consistently against a reeling csu team (lost 5 straight, with 3 of the losses by 2 tds or more), who has the 2nd worst def.in the conference vs. the run & worst against the pass....they gave up 5 td?s in the 2nd half to sdst, who was without their very good receiver vincent brown last week.....

recent injuries to linebacker kawulak & to the leader in the 2ndary senior safety kubiak make csu's defense even worse....

af beat csu last season 38-17 & the more that i have looked at this game the more i can't think of why af couldn't do it again....in that game, while csu packed the d-line with players to fight the af option attack, af threw the ball deep on csu
going 6 for 8 for 171 yards through the air....for this game, af will have jefferson back at qb for the offense & he is a better thrower than dietz(out with a broken hand) was....

over the last 3 seasons air force is 14-1 ats when the total is between 42.5 and 49....the average score was af 25.8, opponent 14.9....

over the last 3 seasons af is 8-0 ats in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49....the average score was af 29.0, opponent 17.3....


af is 4-4 on the season & is desperate for a win towards earning a spot in a bowl game....while csu has probably thown in the towel for the year....


good luck....

Great write-up AR. That's why I follow your threads. :clap:

Now let's cash it in. :toast:

 

[kcwolf]

Good luck Al, great info as always.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate it....


adding....

nebraska-12.5(120)....

i usually stay away from laying dd on the road but feel this game is a big mis-match....neb. lost the last 2 games as dd favorites & commited 10 turnovers in those 2 games....with the type of coach pellini is i think he has turned up the intensity in this weeks practices in preparation for this upcoming game vs. baylor & to get the team ready for their game vs. okla. up next....

nebraska has one of the top defenses in the nation & has held every opponent they have faced to season lows or 2nd fewest yards this season....on the other side, baylor has been struggling since their qb, griffin has been lost for the season....baylor has scored only 24 points in their last 3 games, all against big 12 teams & i don't see them doing much with their freshman qb against the nebraska defense....

in addition to being 14-2 ats on the road after scoring 17 or less points, nebraska is also 17-6 ats after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers since 1992.....the average score was neb. 36.3, opponent 20.2....

since 1992 baylor is 1-11 ats in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=4.25 yards/play....the average score was baylor 10.0, opponent 40.2....

since 1992 baylor is 3-14 ats off 2 straight losses to conference rivals,scoring less than 14 points....the average score was baylor 11.3, opponent 44.9....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

miss.-3(115)....

i think miss. has turned the corner after last week's game & will become a very formidable team for the rest of the year....their qb, for the year snead is only averaging 206 ypg at a poor 53% completion rate with a 14/11 td/int
ratio ....however,over the last 2 games snead has averaged 286 yds per game with a 67% completion rate & a 5/2 td/int ratio....on the other hand after auburn had started the season 5-0, their lack of depth has hurt them in sec play as they have lost 3 straight (allowing a total of 96 points) by an average margin of 16.6 ppg....miss. # 13 ranked defense will control this game & ole miss. should win this game by dd....

over the last 3 seasons miss. is 10-2 ats in the second half of the season....the average score was miss. 27.6, opponent 20.5....

over the last 2 seasons auburn is 0-7 ats after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses....the average score was auburn 15.1, opponent 24.5....

over the last 2 seasons auburn is 0-8 ats off 1 or more consecutive unders....the average score was auburn 17.3, opponent 23.4....



under 56 lou tech / idaho....

play under - any team against the total (idaho) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 5 through 9....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....64-19....77.1%....

the average total posted in these games was....50.9....the average score in these games was.... team 22.9, opponent 20....total points scored....42.9....

the system's record this season is....5-1....83%....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

writeups on some of my games....

col+4....

this is a big revenge game for col. because last year missouri gave hawkins is worst loss ever as a coach....58-0....this year the problem with col. has been the offense as their defense hasn't played that bad at all....they have held their last 3 opponents to either their lowest or 2nd lowest offensive production for the year....while on the other hand missouri has allowed league qbs to complete 63% of their passes with a 7/1 td/int ratio....since their qb has been injured, missouri has been outscored 100-24....i read that since 2000 conference road favorites off 3 su & ats losses are 3-9(25%) against an opponent off a loss....


under 44(120) akron / n. ill....

in their past 3 games akron has scored a total of 17offensive points, while n. ill. might be without their qb for 2 more weeks....in addition n. ill. is a grinding out the yards type of team which eats up the clock....

play under - all teams where the total is 42 or less (both teams apply to this system) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390ypg)....

since 1992 the record for this system is....46-18....71.9%....

the average total posted in these games was....40.3....the average score in these games was.... team 16.5, opponent 16.5....total points scored....33....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....8-0....100%....


under 48 gt / vandy....

play under - any team against the total (gt) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in weeks 5 through 9....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....64-19....77.1%....

the average total posted in these games was....50.9....the average score in these games was.... team 22.9, opponent 20....total points scored....42.9....

the system's record this season is....5-1....83%....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

adding....

w. mich.+3(120)....

both teams are 4-4 but think w. mich. is the better team & will be able to take advantage of kent's soft pass defense where they allow an average of 226 ypg & a 60% completion % through the air....

play on - a road team (w. mich.) - average passing team (6.4-7.5 pya) against a poor passing team (5.6-6.4 pya) after 7+ games, in conference games....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....63-27....70%....


here is a list of who i am playing for this saturday....

air force-2.5(120)....
oregon st.-9....
michigan-6.5(120)....
under 49 gt / vandy....
under 48 miss st / kentucky....
under 63(130) e. mich. /ark....
under 44(120) akron / n. ill....
under 43 temple / navy....
under 44 wyom. / utah....
under 48(130) mich. st. / minn....
iowa st+7.5....
col.+4....
under 48(125) rutgers / conn....
under 48(125) penn st / nw....
nebraska-12.5(120)....
miss.-3(115)....
under 56 lou tech / idaho....
w. mich.+3(120)....


good luck....

 

[spang]

If a preseason line would have been set, Western would have probably been a 7-10 pt favorite over Kent. I have backed the Broncos most of the year with really bad results. They do have a lot of talent and Cubit was always a decent coach as well. Why they are just a 4-4 team is beyond me. If I get off of them this week it should serve you well.