Divisional for Jord
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
- Sep 25, 2009
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Can't bet on dk or fd in this shit hole state of NM. 2 miles from the Texas border but can't do it there either.
Gl gents!
- Nov 30, 2003
- 3,598
- 177
- 63
- Sep 25, 2009
- 2,113
- 135
- 63
- Nov 30, 2003
- 3,598
- 177
- 63
I have TB +7.5 that’s why they went for 2 lol..
Absolutely the better move to go for 2… if you are into increasing your chances of winning the game
Bills -2.5 10x
Bills -2.5 10x
- Nov 30, 2003
- 3,598
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Cause if you don’t make it you lose, if you don’t get it the first time you can still tie
Because of all the
Because of all the things you could do to increase your chances of winning the game going for 2 there is at the top of the list. It is not even debatable, the probabilities are overwhelming even if you were to factor in a low conversion rate.
Assumption: You score 2 TDs without the opponent scoring
The scenarios:
1. You go for two extra points:
95% chance you hit both, tying the game and giving you a 50% (negating missed XP odds)
2. You go for 2pt conversion (assume 45% chance success rate):
45% chance you get it and then win outright on the next TD. Or miss and have to get 2pt on the next TD to tie (giving you a 45% chance of tie-ing giving you 50% chance of winning).
The odds look like this .45 + (.45* .50) = 67.5% chance of winning the game vs. <50% if you go for extra points
So you still have a lot that has to go your way but ASSUMING you get 2 TD's and your opponent does not, you have over a 30% better chance of being the victor with this strategy.
I think the "analytics" is saying something to the effect of...you have 2 chances to get the 2-point conversion and you only need one of them. If you get the first one, you win and if you get the second one, you tie/overtime.
Not the way I'd do it though and honestly, if I outscore them 14-0 in the last several minutes, then I welcome overtime. Also, you don't know how the game is going to unfold. If you score the second touchdown too quick, you might be up by a point which forces their hand and they drive into field goal range where they may have settled for a tie deep in their own territory.
I take the point and keep playing and even if I want to play for the win (in regulation)...down by one, I'm not going for 2 for the win unless I know it's for the win, meaning w about 20 seconds or less. I'm not gonna give them 2 chances to beat me late.
Not the way I'd do it though and honestly, if I outscore them 14-0 in the last several minutes, then I welcome overtime. Also, you don't know how the game is going to unfold. If you score the second touchdown too quick, you might be up by a point which forces their hand and they drive into field goal range where they may have settled for a tie deep in their own territory.
I take the point and keep playing and even if I want to play for the win (in regulation)...down by one, I'm not going for 2 for the win unless I know it's for the win, meaning w about 20 seconds or less. I'm not gonna give them 2 chances to beat me late.
ANALytics. Will the future be AI in the coaches box calling the plays?
