FINAL 4 SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS
- Thread starter GIANTS007
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GOLD SHEET's LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE PAID for PICKS
MARCH MADNESS SATURDAY, APRIL 5
UCLA over Memphis - at San Antonio, TX 3:05 PM PDT
NORTH CAROLINA over Kansas - at San Antonio, TX 5:45 PM PDT
MARCH MADNESS SATURDAY, APRIL 5
UCLA over Memphis - at San Antonio, TX 3:05 PM PDT
NORTH CAROLINA over Kansas - at San Antonio, TX 5:45 PM PDT
TEDDY COVERS ARENA FOOTBALL
Saturday April 5th 2008
Arena Football
7:00p
New Orleans Voodoo (-110) / 4 units
San Jose won the Arena Bowl last year, and came into the 2008 season as one of the favorites to become the first repeat champion since Tampa Bay did it in 1995 and 1996. But, frankly, the Sabercats have not been playing at a championship level through the first five weeks of the season. They?ve lost both matchups against quality foes, losing to Chicago and Dallas by a combined 26 points, despite scoring a meaningless touchdown on the last play of the game against the Desperados.
Yes, even a disappointing Sabercats squad is good enough to beat teams like Arizona and Kansas City, but they struggled offensively even against weaker competition, held to just ten touchdowns on 22 meaningful drives in their victories over the Rattlers and Brigade. It?s surely worth noting that the betting marketplace has been consistently overvaluing this squad ? they?ve only covered one pointspread all year long.
The Sabercats defense has given up 58+ on three separate occasions, allowing 10.7 and 9.9 yards per pass attempt against the Rush and Desperados, the only two quality offenses that they?ve faced. And it?s also surely worth noting that the Sabercats suffered three losses last year. All three losses came on the road, early in the season, including a 67-54 loss at New Orleans. San Jose has consistently peaked in the second half of the season under head coach Darren Arbet and this year looks no different so far ? they certainly aren?t peaking just yet, making this a very difficult road game for the Sabercats to win.
Meanwhile, all New Orleans has been doing since their Week 1 debacle at LA is win games and cover pointspreads; four consecutive SU and ATS victories for the VooDoo. Quarterback Danny Wimprine has burst onto the scene since replacing Steve Bellasari, with an impressive 24-2 touchdown to interception ratio in his four games as the starter. The VooDoo scored eight touchdowns on nine meaningful possessions against a solid Colorado defense last week, while their own defense has only given up 16 TD?s on 32 meaningful possessions over the last three weeks. We?ll ride the hot team here in a game where a SU win should equate to a pointspread cover. Take New Orleans.
8:00p
Cleveland Gladiators - Dallas Desperados OVER 101.0 (-110) / 4 units
Dallas backup QB Chris Sanders has not been particularly effective as the replacement starter for the injured Clint Dolezel, a future Hall of Famer. Yes, the Desperados are still undefeated after squeaking out a 33-31 victory against the lowly New York Dragons this past weekend. But frankly, the Desperados have succeeded despite Sanders? presence in the lineup, not because of it. Sanders was not sharp for the third time in four weeks against the Dragons, consistently missing open receivers. In four games as the starter, Sanders has only thrown 18 touchdown passes, while throwing a whopping 58 incomplete passes, an enormous number by AFL standards.
Sanders? inconsistent run comes to an end this week with Dolezel expected to return to action as the Desperados face Cleveland at home on Saturday, a move that immediately makes the Desperados offense a unit worth respecting enormously. Let?s not forget that this team averaged 63 points per game last year, and have the offensive weapons to approach those numbers again in 2008 now that their starting quarterback is healthy once again. Facing a Gladiators defense that has allowed 63, 57 and 63 points over their last three games, look for the Desperados to enjoy their strongest offensive game of the season on Saturday.
But Cleveland?s offense is in excellent form as well, with starting quarterback Raymond Philyaw upgraded to ?expected to start? on Sunday after suffering an injury to his throwing hand in the Gladiators most recent game, an ugly loss at New Orleans before their bye week. The Gladiators also have a tremendous return game, with an average starting field position at midfield in their last win, at Columbus We can expect a return to form from an offense that scored 24 touchdowns on their 30 meaningful drives through their first three games of the season, even against the Desperados solid defense. This total reflects Sanders at QB for Dallas, not Dolezel, a mistake that we expect the linesmakers to regret before this game is through. Take the Over
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Sunday April 6th 2008
Arena Football
2:00p
Orlando Predators +7.0 (-110) / 5 units
Orlando has come on strong following their awful 0-2 start, winning three straight heading into Sunday afternoon?s ESPN2 battle with the red hot Chicago Rush. There aren?t many home fields in the AFL that are worth much, but the Jungle is most assuredly one of those home fields, particularly for big games like this one. Chicago ?s defense deserves an enormous amount of credit for their early season success, but it?s not like the Rush have been playing a litany of strong offensive clubs. They held Grand Rapids , Colorado and Arizona to 35 points each over the last three weeks. Grand Rapids subsequently cut their starting quarterback and went on an offensive tear. Colorado QB John Dutton has struggled mightily all year, as has Arizona ?s Jeff Smoker, particularly against quality defenses.
The Rush ?D? takes a major step up in class this week against Shane Stafford and the Predators offense. Since a rough start at Philly, Stafford has guided the team to 30 touchdowns in 39 meaningful drives in their last four games. Head coach Jay Gruden: ?Shane Stafford, Chas Gessner and TT Toliver (the Predators two leading receivers) are playing really well on offense right now.? Stafford has averaged more than ten yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks. Don?t expect Chicago to have the same level of defensive success this week as they have in recent weeks, not even close.
The Predators were truly awful defensively for the first three games of the season, allowing 25 touchdowns on 28 meaningful drives against them. Through those first three weeks, Orlando ?s defense didn?t record a sack or an interception ? nary even a pass breakup. But Gruden made a handful of personnel changes, even leaving star defensive end BJ Cohen at home this past week. Suddenly, Orlando is getting stops consistently, with a much better 11 touchdowns in 19 meaningful drives ratio in their last two games, holding both opponents to 45 points or less. Rob Schroeder notched the first safety of the year at Columbus this past weekend, while Jason Hall helped the team record a season high three sacks. Gruden, following the win: ?The defense played great. We showed some signs of life and really got after (Columbus QB Matt) Nagy in the first half.? In a game that should come down to the final possession, I?m quite comfortable supporting the home underdog in a very attractive price range. Big Ticket: Take Orlando . Current Line: Orlando +7
Saturday April 5th 2008
Arena Football
7:00p
New Orleans Voodoo (-110) / 4 units
San Jose won the Arena Bowl last year, and came into the 2008 season as one of the favorites to become the first repeat champion since Tampa Bay did it in 1995 and 1996. But, frankly, the Sabercats have not been playing at a championship level through the first five weeks of the season. They?ve lost both matchups against quality foes, losing to Chicago and Dallas by a combined 26 points, despite scoring a meaningless touchdown on the last play of the game against the Desperados.
Yes, even a disappointing Sabercats squad is good enough to beat teams like Arizona and Kansas City, but they struggled offensively even against weaker competition, held to just ten touchdowns on 22 meaningful drives in their victories over the Rattlers and Brigade. It?s surely worth noting that the betting marketplace has been consistently overvaluing this squad ? they?ve only covered one pointspread all year long.
The Sabercats defense has given up 58+ on three separate occasions, allowing 10.7 and 9.9 yards per pass attempt against the Rush and Desperados, the only two quality offenses that they?ve faced. And it?s also surely worth noting that the Sabercats suffered three losses last year. All three losses came on the road, early in the season, including a 67-54 loss at New Orleans. San Jose has consistently peaked in the second half of the season under head coach Darren Arbet and this year looks no different so far ? they certainly aren?t peaking just yet, making this a very difficult road game for the Sabercats to win.
Meanwhile, all New Orleans has been doing since their Week 1 debacle at LA is win games and cover pointspreads; four consecutive SU and ATS victories for the VooDoo. Quarterback Danny Wimprine has burst onto the scene since replacing Steve Bellasari, with an impressive 24-2 touchdown to interception ratio in his four games as the starter. The VooDoo scored eight touchdowns on nine meaningful possessions against a solid Colorado defense last week, while their own defense has only given up 16 TD?s on 32 meaningful possessions over the last three weeks. We?ll ride the hot team here in a game where a SU win should equate to a pointspread cover. Take New Orleans.
8:00p
Cleveland Gladiators - Dallas Desperados OVER 101.0 (-110) / 4 units
Dallas backup QB Chris Sanders has not been particularly effective as the replacement starter for the injured Clint Dolezel, a future Hall of Famer. Yes, the Desperados are still undefeated after squeaking out a 33-31 victory against the lowly New York Dragons this past weekend. But frankly, the Desperados have succeeded despite Sanders? presence in the lineup, not because of it. Sanders was not sharp for the third time in four weeks against the Dragons, consistently missing open receivers. In four games as the starter, Sanders has only thrown 18 touchdown passes, while throwing a whopping 58 incomplete passes, an enormous number by AFL standards.
Sanders? inconsistent run comes to an end this week with Dolezel expected to return to action as the Desperados face Cleveland at home on Saturday, a move that immediately makes the Desperados offense a unit worth respecting enormously. Let?s not forget that this team averaged 63 points per game last year, and have the offensive weapons to approach those numbers again in 2008 now that their starting quarterback is healthy once again. Facing a Gladiators defense that has allowed 63, 57 and 63 points over their last three games, look for the Desperados to enjoy their strongest offensive game of the season on Saturday.
But Cleveland?s offense is in excellent form as well, with starting quarterback Raymond Philyaw upgraded to ?expected to start? on Sunday after suffering an injury to his throwing hand in the Gladiators most recent game, an ugly loss at New Orleans before their bye week. The Gladiators also have a tremendous return game, with an average starting field position at midfield in their last win, at Columbus We can expect a return to form from an offense that scored 24 touchdowns on their 30 meaningful drives through their first three games of the season, even against the Desperados solid defense. This total reflects Sanders at QB for Dallas, not Dolezel, a mistake that we expect the linesmakers to regret before this game is through. Take the Over
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Sunday April 6th 2008
Arena Football
2:00p
Orlando Predators +7.0 (-110) / 5 units
Orlando has come on strong following their awful 0-2 start, winning three straight heading into Sunday afternoon?s ESPN2 battle with the red hot Chicago Rush. There aren?t many home fields in the AFL that are worth much, but the Jungle is most assuredly one of those home fields, particularly for big games like this one. Chicago ?s defense deserves an enormous amount of credit for their early season success, but it?s not like the Rush have been playing a litany of strong offensive clubs. They held Grand Rapids , Colorado and Arizona to 35 points each over the last three weeks. Grand Rapids subsequently cut their starting quarterback and went on an offensive tear. Colorado QB John Dutton has struggled mightily all year, as has Arizona ?s Jeff Smoker, particularly against quality defenses.
The Rush ?D? takes a major step up in class this week against Shane Stafford and the Predators offense. Since a rough start at Philly, Stafford has guided the team to 30 touchdowns in 39 meaningful drives in their last four games. Head coach Jay Gruden: ?Shane Stafford, Chas Gessner and TT Toliver (the Predators two leading receivers) are playing really well on offense right now.? Stafford has averaged more than ten yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks. Don?t expect Chicago to have the same level of defensive success this week as they have in recent weeks, not even close.
The Predators were truly awful defensively for the first three games of the season, allowing 25 touchdowns on 28 meaningful drives against them. Through those first three weeks, Orlando ?s defense didn?t record a sack or an interception ? nary even a pass breakup. But Gruden made a handful of personnel changes, even leaving star defensive end BJ Cohen at home this past week. Suddenly, Orlando is getting stops consistently, with a much better 11 touchdowns in 19 meaningful drives ratio in their last two games, holding both opponents to 45 points or less. Rob Schroeder notched the first safety of the year at Columbus this past weekend, while Jason Hall helped the team record a season high three sacks. Gruden, following the win: ?The defense played great. We showed some signs of life and really got after (Columbus QB Matt) Nagy in the first half.? In a game that should come down to the final possession, I?m quite comfortable supporting the home underdog in a very attractive price range. Big Ticket: Take Orlando . Current Line: Orlando +7
The Prez (Lawrence Prezman)
Your pick will be graded at: 4 BoDog
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: **20-5 CBB RUN** Get Prez' FAVORITE Final Four Be
REASON FOR PICK: North Carolina is doomed.
If you didn't hear -- Tyler Hansbrough is on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week. Kansas is the most balanced and arguably the best defensive team of the final four, and there is no doubt that they have the manpower to handle the Carolina backcourt.
Vegas and Offshores have made their hay, by shading public opinion. First and foremostm if you ask the average fan who they like in this game they will tell you Roy's Boyz. If you ask the experts, or the sharp players, they will tell you to a man, Kansas. The status quo among public betting is to wager on a team based on their last performance -- THIS, and the juice, is why Vegas has billion dollar hotels up and down the strip.
Key Point: Throw out the performance of the Jayhawks against Davidson. Throw everything out but the win, and how they defended Stephen Curry - Unfortunately for us, they played tight, and not to lose, and couldn?t cover the number. They did enough to advance and will do again today.
The Jayhawks go four deep in the backcourt, including Brandon Rush, and four deep in the front court including Cole Aldrich -- These eight top players for Kansas are just too much for the Tarheels top eight. Kansas dictates tempo, especially against a team that likes to score big numbers.
Of the Top-35 scoring teams in Division I, Kansas was 5-1 against this year. There only loss on the road to Kansas State and Michael Beasley. In every one of these six games, Kansas dictated the tempo as their opponents failed to score their season average, save Baylor when they scored 90 on the Jayhawks ? who in turn scored 100 to win the game.
North Carolina, defensively, is overrated. They typically get calls, especially within their conference. No coach does a better job of working the officials than Roy Williams.
Key Stat: Surprisingly, Kansas took 100 more three point shots than Carolina, and hit 52 of those 100. Kansas shot a better percentage from the floor and behind the arc. And it?s worth noting that teams have not allowed Hansbrough to go to the line during the tourney have been successful defensively. The Tarheel center took 65 percent of the teams? free throws this year. Four of the five Kansas starters shot 100 or more free throws and all of those players shot better than 70 percent.
The game plan for Kansas is to body up on Ty Lawson, not let him dictate the tempo of the game, and double Hansbrough without fouling. Done successfully -- the plan adds up to a victory.
Key Trend: Tar Heels are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 - A telling tale of the Vegas shade.
Kansas in a 5 UNIT play in Saturday's late semifinal game.
Your pick will be graded at: 4 BoDog
EXPERT: The Prez
TITLE: **20-5 CBB RUN** Get Prez' FAVORITE Final Four Be
REASON FOR PICK: North Carolina is doomed.
If you didn't hear -- Tyler Hansbrough is on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week. Kansas is the most balanced and arguably the best defensive team of the final four, and there is no doubt that they have the manpower to handle the Carolina backcourt.
Vegas and Offshores have made their hay, by shading public opinion. First and foremostm if you ask the average fan who they like in this game they will tell you Roy's Boyz. If you ask the experts, or the sharp players, they will tell you to a man, Kansas. The status quo among public betting is to wager on a team based on their last performance -- THIS, and the juice, is why Vegas has billion dollar hotels up and down the strip.
Key Point: Throw out the performance of the Jayhawks against Davidson. Throw everything out but the win, and how they defended Stephen Curry - Unfortunately for us, they played tight, and not to lose, and couldn?t cover the number. They did enough to advance and will do again today.
The Jayhawks go four deep in the backcourt, including Brandon Rush, and four deep in the front court including Cole Aldrich -- These eight top players for Kansas are just too much for the Tarheels top eight. Kansas dictates tempo, especially against a team that likes to score big numbers.
Of the Top-35 scoring teams in Division I, Kansas was 5-1 against this year. There only loss on the road to Kansas State and Michael Beasley. In every one of these six games, Kansas dictated the tempo as their opponents failed to score their season average, save Baylor when they scored 90 on the Jayhawks ? who in turn scored 100 to win the game.
North Carolina, defensively, is overrated. They typically get calls, especially within their conference. No coach does a better job of working the officials than Roy Williams.
Key Stat: Surprisingly, Kansas took 100 more three point shots than Carolina, and hit 52 of those 100. Kansas shot a better percentage from the floor and behind the arc. And it?s worth noting that teams have not allowed Hansbrough to go to the line during the tourney have been successful defensively. The Tarheel center took 65 percent of the teams? free throws this year. Four of the five Kansas starters shot 100 or more free throws and all of those players shot better than 70 percent.
The game plan for Kansas is to body up on Ty Lawson, not let him dictate the tempo of the game, and double Hansbrough without fouling. Done successfully -- the plan adds up to a victory.
Key Trend: Tar Heels are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 - A telling tale of the Vegas shade.
Kansas in a 5 UNIT play in Saturday's late semifinal game.
ats basketball lock club
4units ucla
4units nc
ats hockey lock club
3units atlanta
3units over flor-wash
does anyonehave there baseball lock of the month today
4units ucla
4units nc
ats hockey lock club
3units atlanta
3units over flor-wash
does anyonehave there baseball lock of the month today
EZ WINNERS
FINAL FOUR
5 STAR: (813) MEMPHIS (-2.5) over Ucla
(Risking $550 to win $500)
5:05PM Central Time
5 STAR: (815) KANSAS (+3.5) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
7:45PM Central Time
MLB
5 STAR: (953) HOUSTON (-$120) over Chicago
(Listing Oswalt and Marquis)
(Risking $600 to win $500)
12:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (963) PITTSBURGH (+$112) over Florida
(Listing Maholm and Hendrickson)
(Risking $200 to win $224)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (951) SAN FRANCISCO (+$163) over Milwaukee
(Listing Correia and Parra)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (967) TAMPA BAY (+$214) over NY Yankees
(Listing Jackson and Pettitte)
(Risking $100 to win $214)
12:05PM Central Time
FINAL FOUR
5 STAR: (813) MEMPHIS (-2.5) over Ucla
(Risking $550 to win $500)
5:05PM Central Time
5 STAR: (815) KANSAS (+3.5) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
7:45PM Central Time
MLB
5 STAR: (953) HOUSTON (-$120) over Chicago
(Listing Oswalt and Marquis)
(Risking $600 to win $500)
12:05PM Central Time
2 STAR: (963) PITTSBURGH (+$112) over Florida
(Listing Maholm and Hendrickson)
(Risking $200 to win $224)
6:10PM Central Time
1 STAR: (951) SAN FRANCISCO (+$163) over Milwaukee
(Listing Correia and Parra)
(Risking $100 to win $163)
12:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (967) TAMPA BAY (+$214) over NY Yankees
(Listing Jackson and Pettitte)
(Risking $100 to win $214)
12:05PM Central Time
WINNING POINTS
North Carolina over Kansas by 11
You?ve got four #1 seeds in the Final Four, and if it was a game of ?Which Doesn?t
Belong and Why?,? then the Kansas Jayhawks would be our pick. They?re a bunch of
talented kids whose coach comes in tied for third-place with Memphis? Calipari in the
coaching department, who want to run up and down the floor swatting at passes and
putting up tough shots while posing for the camera ? ?Someone take my picture in
mid-air, please!? With Brandon Rush, the mentality comes with brother Kareem?s
genes. Sasha the Stiff Kaun as the Jayhawks? carrier to the Final Four? Could have only
happened in a match-up against Davidson?s lean front line, which wasn?t beefy enough
to get in his way, not deep enough to afford to foul him hard, and whose offensive
shooters are less than so-so when matched up vs. athletes of Kansas? caliber. That analyses
contains zero sour grapes, which you know following the ?Take the Points!? advice
regarding Davidson vs. Kansas from last week (followed with a 7-Star Davidson +9 win
for Executive Club members on game-day, which came on the heels of an Executive
Club game-day winner on Kansas, -11.5 vs. Villanova). Following a happy, 2-0 weekend
of involvement in Kansas games (3-0 run counting Kansas, -13 vs. UNLV in the
Second Round), we come to this Final Four game where Sasha the Stiff Kaun is about
to pull the incredible disappearing act against Carolina?s reliable Tyler Hansbrough (23
and 10). On the whole, the Tar Heels are not a huge team. Deon Thompson (6-8, 245)
and Alex Stephenson (6-9, 245) are sophomores playing just 21 and 14 minutes per
game with Hansbrough?s 6-9, 250 body in there for 33 minutes per game. But the
Jayhawks are no bigger. Darrell Arthur is also a soph, playing 24 minutes per game at
6-9, 225. At 6-8, 250, this is four-year senior Darnell Jackson?s first campaign with
more than 20 minutes per game, and first with a double-digit scoring average (11.3).
Kaun, at 6-11, 250, is a 17 minute-per-game senior with a single-digit career scoring
average who saw more floor time in match-up advantages against smaller Villanova
(whose 6-10, 270 Casiem Drummond conveniently was out injured) and Davidson
last weekend. Around the perimeter, at 6-4 and 6-5 and 200-plus pounds, Carolina?s
Ellington and Ginyard match up just fine against 6-6 Rush, 6-1 Mario Chalmers and
5-11 Sherron Collins ? after all, there is only one ball on the court, and in the highestprofile
game of the year against the highest-caliber opponent, this simple fact figures to
hurt Kansas. Carolina point guard Ty Lawson is 5-11, 195 and Kansas point guard
Russell Robinson 6-1, 200, but not the reliable scorer Lawson is. The Tar Heels also
managed to win six out of seven games where Lawson was injured this season, five of
them by double-digits. Kansas thinks they?ll love playing at North Carolina?s 73.8-possession
pace. They think wrong, and if they want a half-court game, they?re also wrong.
We thought Carolina would hate one of those and have a 68-47 Sweet 16 loss with
Washington State against the Tar Heels to prove us wrong
NO CAROLINA 83-72
UCLA over Memphis by 1
Two weeks before the regular season ended, odds on the UCLA Bruins to win the
NCAA Tournament were 9-2. You began reading on these pages the following advice,
in no uncertain terms: ?Buy your NCAA Future on the Bruins,? and the regular
reminder, ?Have you bought your NCAA Future on the Bruins yet?? With a 9-2 future
purchased, one ignores UCLA here (because there is a $350 return for every $100 if
they win the title) and possibly plays Memphis in this game as a hedging tool. That?s
really the way to play the Final Four ? get odds on a team to win the whole thing, get
that team to the Final Four, then hedge elsewhere in an attempt to guarantee a profit
if that team doesn?t make it. If you have a future on Memphis to win it all, then you?d
pass on Memphis here and have UCLA as a possible hedge tool. The teams last met in
2005-06, two times. In November, Memphis won 88-80 at Madison Square Garen in
New York. Four months later in March at the Elite 8, UCLA won 50-45 in Oakland.
"We play defense. That's what we do. We didn't let them walk over us," said long-since
departed UCLA guard Cedric Bozeman afterwards. But Cedric Bozeman was long and
lean, unlike any of the current group of UCLA guards who will attempt to defend
against a Memphis backcourt that made Drew Neitzel and Kalin Lucas of Michigan
State look like chumps, and made D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams of Texas look like a
high school J.V. players. Darren Collison is 6-0, 160. Russell Westbrook is 6-3, 189.
Josh Shipp is 6-5, 220, but as a spot-up jump-shooter against players with a wider array
of NBA-level skills, he is not versatile enough to be a scary piece of the puzzle. With
Memphis? Chris Douglas-Roberts at 6-7, 200, Derrick Rose at 6-2, 205 and Antonio
Anderson 6-6, 210, matching up against Memphis on the perimeter is hard to do
Collison is quick and can penetrate ? or will think he can penetrate -- but Memphis
has a lot of perimeter length to get past, and too many shot alterers and influencers
down low. Also, Collison comes in second to Rose in many categories, including size,
agility in transition, elusiveness in the lane, ability to elevate. But it just doesn?t seem
likely that UCLA will pull a Michigan State and cower at the prospect of being on the
floor with Memphis, or pull a Rick Barnes and have no clue how to manage the first
half in order to have a chance to stay within range. Collison will more than likely walk
it up from start to finish and stay in control ? unlike the poorly prepared Augustin kid.
Giving Memphis as few possessions as possible will frustrate the Tigers a little bit, and
Ben Howland can field some tough-as-nails interior players who have made a collegiate
career of willingly doing dirty work inside. Kevin Love?s outside shot takes Memphis?
Joey Dorsey away from total dominance on the defensive glass. When the game stays
close, that?s when Memphis? 59.5% free-throw shooting ? suddenly forgotten about
after last weekend?s blowout wins ? can come into play against them.
UCLA 70-69
***BEST BET
*Denver over Sacramento by 17
Idle since Tuesday, the Nuggets should be rested and primed for a huge effort against
Sacramento, a team they?ve already beaten twice this season. With a playoff berth possibly
at stake, the Nuggets know they can?t afford a letdown at home. The Nuggets have
scored at least 103 points in 14 consecutive games through March 30. Sacramento had
dropped nine of its last 10 away matchups through March 29.
DENVER 123-106
North Carolina over Kansas by 11
You?ve got four #1 seeds in the Final Four, and if it was a game of ?Which Doesn?t
Belong and Why?,? then the Kansas Jayhawks would be our pick. They?re a bunch of
talented kids whose coach comes in tied for third-place with Memphis? Calipari in the
coaching department, who want to run up and down the floor swatting at passes and
putting up tough shots while posing for the camera ? ?Someone take my picture in
mid-air, please!? With Brandon Rush, the mentality comes with brother Kareem?s
genes. Sasha the Stiff Kaun as the Jayhawks? carrier to the Final Four? Could have only
happened in a match-up against Davidson?s lean front line, which wasn?t beefy enough
to get in his way, not deep enough to afford to foul him hard, and whose offensive
shooters are less than so-so when matched up vs. athletes of Kansas? caliber. That analyses
contains zero sour grapes, which you know following the ?Take the Points!? advice
regarding Davidson vs. Kansas from last week (followed with a 7-Star Davidson +9 win
for Executive Club members on game-day, which came on the heels of an Executive
Club game-day winner on Kansas, -11.5 vs. Villanova). Following a happy, 2-0 weekend
of involvement in Kansas games (3-0 run counting Kansas, -13 vs. UNLV in the
Second Round), we come to this Final Four game where Sasha the Stiff Kaun is about
to pull the incredible disappearing act against Carolina?s reliable Tyler Hansbrough (23
and 10). On the whole, the Tar Heels are not a huge team. Deon Thompson (6-8, 245)
and Alex Stephenson (6-9, 245) are sophomores playing just 21 and 14 minutes per
game with Hansbrough?s 6-9, 250 body in there for 33 minutes per game. But the
Jayhawks are no bigger. Darrell Arthur is also a soph, playing 24 minutes per game at
6-9, 225. At 6-8, 250, this is four-year senior Darnell Jackson?s first campaign with
more than 20 minutes per game, and first with a double-digit scoring average (11.3).
Kaun, at 6-11, 250, is a 17 minute-per-game senior with a single-digit career scoring
average who saw more floor time in match-up advantages against smaller Villanova
(whose 6-10, 270 Casiem Drummond conveniently was out injured) and Davidson
last weekend. Around the perimeter, at 6-4 and 6-5 and 200-plus pounds, Carolina?s
Ellington and Ginyard match up just fine against 6-6 Rush, 6-1 Mario Chalmers and
5-11 Sherron Collins ? after all, there is only one ball on the court, and in the highestprofile
game of the year against the highest-caliber opponent, this simple fact figures to
hurt Kansas. Carolina point guard Ty Lawson is 5-11, 195 and Kansas point guard
Russell Robinson 6-1, 200, but not the reliable scorer Lawson is. The Tar Heels also
managed to win six out of seven games where Lawson was injured this season, five of
them by double-digits. Kansas thinks they?ll love playing at North Carolina?s 73.8-possession
pace. They think wrong, and if they want a half-court game, they?re also wrong.
We thought Carolina would hate one of those and have a 68-47 Sweet 16 loss with
Washington State against the Tar Heels to prove us wrong
NO CAROLINA 83-72
UCLA over Memphis by 1
Two weeks before the regular season ended, odds on the UCLA Bruins to win the
NCAA Tournament were 9-2. You began reading on these pages the following advice,
in no uncertain terms: ?Buy your NCAA Future on the Bruins,? and the regular
reminder, ?Have you bought your NCAA Future on the Bruins yet?? With a 9-2 future
purchased, one ignores UCLA here (because there is a $350 return for every $100 if
they win the title) and possibly plays Memphis in this game as a hedging tool. That?s
really the way to play the Final Four ? get odds on a team to win the whole thing, get
that team to the Final Four, then hedge elsewhere in an attempt to guarantee a profit
if that team doesn?t make it. If you have a future on Memphis to win it all, then you?d
pass on Memphis here and have UCLA as a possible hedge tool. The teams last met in
2005-06, two times. In November, Memphis won 88-80 at Madison Square Garen in
New York. Four months later in March at the Elite 8, UCLA won 50-45 in Oakland.
"We play defense. That's what we do. We didn't let them walk over us," said long-since
departed UCLA guard Cedric Bozeman afterwards. But Cedric Bozeman was long and
lean, unlike any of the current group of UCLA guards who will attempt to defend
against a Memphis backcourt that made Drew Neitzel and Kalin Lucas of Michigan
State look like chumps, and made D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams of Texas look like a
high school J.V. players. Darren Collison is 6-0, 160. Russell Westbrook is 6-3, 189.
Josh Shipp is 6-5, 220, but as a spot-up jump-shooter against players with a wider array
of NBA-level skills, he is not versatile enough to be a scary piece of the puzzle. With
Memphis? Chris Douglas-Roberts at 6-7, 200, Derrick Rose at 6-2, 205 and Antonio
Anderson 6-6, 210, matching up against Memphis on the perimeter is hard to do
Collison is quick and can penetrate ? or will think he can penetrate -- but Memphis
has a lot of perimeter length to get past, and too many shot alterers and influencers
down low. Also, Collison comes in second to Rose in many categories, including size,
agility in transition, elusiveness in the lane, ability to elevate. But it just doesn?t seem
likely that UCLA will pull a Michigan State and cower at the prospect of being on the
floor with Memphis, or pull a Rick Barnes and have no clue how to manage the first
half in order to have a chance to stay within range. Collison will more than likely walk
it up from start to finish and stay in control ? unlike the poorly prepared Augustin kid.
Giving Memphis as few possessions as possible will frustrate the Tigers a little bit, and
Ben Howland can field some tough-as-nails interior players who have made a collegiate
career of willingly doing dirty work inside. Kevin Love?s outside shot takes Memphis?
Joey Dorsey away from total dominance on the defensive glass. When the game stays
close, that?s when Memphis? 59.5% free-throw shooting ? suddenly forgotten about
after last weekend?s blowout wins ? can come into play against them.
UCLA 70-69
***BEST BET
*Denver over Sacramento by 17
Idle since Tuesday, the Nuggets should be rested and primed for a huge effort against
Sacramento, a team they?ve already beaten twice this season. With a playoff berth possibly
at stake, the Nuggets know they can?t afford a letdown at home. The Nuggets have
scored at least 103 points in 14 consecutive games through March 30. Sacramento had
dropped nine of its last 10 away matchups through March 29.
DENVER 123-106
SPORTS MEMO
MEMPHIS VS UCLA
Recommendation: Memphis
UCLA played its best game of the tournament in its Elite Eight win over Xavier, shooting 50% from the field, staking claim on the glass and allowing only one Musketeer player to shoot over 50% from the floor. A key for the Bruins in this game is going to be avoiding the large first half deficit,
something Memphis inflicted on both Michigan State and Texas. Another key is perimeter defense on the bevy of Memphis guards that are relentless off the dribble. The Bruins are now making their third straight trip to the Final Four, but those appearances have been anything but pretty offensively. Two years ago, en route to a National Title game loss to Florida, the Bruins failed to reach the 60-point mark. Last season, in their Final Four rematch vs. the Gators, the Bruins shot only 39% from the floor. And while the UCLA defense is arguably the best of the remaining four teams, the bottom line is that they are going to need to not only counter the expected offensive surges of Memphis, but find ways to score down the stretch. As for Memphis, it continues
to be the Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose show, with both players combining for 43 ppg through four tournament
games. On paper, UCLA does not have a player who can matchup with Douglas-Roberts, let alone Rose. Darren Collison has been a disappointment thus far and will likely have a tough time coming with strong efforts on both ends of the court. The matchup in the paint we see as a wash. UCLA?s Kevin Love will inevitably have his 20-10 night but Memphis will be able to throw multiple big bodies at him throughout the night. We need to make mention of the ?hack-a-Tiger? theory, something both Texas and Mississippi
State utilized. Texas was down double-digits for most of the game and felt its only chance was to start fouling with more than three minutes left in the game. The gamble didn?t pay off as UM shot 30-of-36, 83% for the game, proving
good free throw shooting is nothing more than the will to concentrate and focus. In what should have been an easy ticket to cash for those who played the Under became the epitome of frustration as the clock stood at a virtual standstill
the last three minutes of the game. Even with the stellar
performance from the line from Memphis against UT, if UCLA is down by anything inside of 15, they?ll be fouling until the final buzzer. They say defense wins championships and while there is some truth to that theory, you can?t put enough value on being able to score in bunches. UCLA?s defense
is a team-oriented, containment-style that has little trouble shutting down average offenses. Memphis not only has a superior offense, but their individual talent is one few teams have been able overcome. Take the Tigers to advance
to the Finals on the backs of their stellar guard play
NC VS KANSAS
Recommendation: North Carolina
Louisville?s game plan was more than questionable especially
in the first half as they decided to pick up North Carolina
full court. The result wasn?t pretty with Ty Lawson being one of the quickest players in the country free throw line to free throw line. This game is virtually a mirror image of the other Final Four matchup in that UNC, like Memphis, can pour on 8-10 points before KU even knew what him them. So if the Jayhawks want to compete or even win this game, their transition defense needs to have zero flaws. Statistically,
UNC?s defense wasn?t all that impressive vs. Louisville but the fact that they were in control of the game for virtually all of the 40 minutes, makes the Cardinals? 53% field goal night meaningless. KU is a notch above Louisville on offense and will need to have a good balance of transition and half court baskets to keep the Tar Heels honest. Kansas? defense has flat out dominated each and every opponent thus far in the tournament. Davidson shot the best of the Jayhawks? four opponents at 39% and more importantly were held to just four points the last 5:20 of the ball game. And for all of those people who feel Kansas took Davidson lightly, we?ll be the first to point out that the Wildcats were not only worthy of being in that game, but had they won, it wouldn?t have been because Kansas overlooked them. Down the stretch, KU did exactly what they needed to do to win the game and that was to shut down Stephen Curry. Now, it took a box-and-one defense to do so, but this far into the tournament,
you can?t become wrapped up in how much or little teams win by game to game. For Kansas, this will mark the first time since November of 2006 that they will be playing the role of an underdog. In that game, they defeated Florida, 82-80 in overtime. Florida obviously went on the win the National Title. An obvious key matchup in this game will be how the Jayhawks defend Tyler Hansbrough on the block. Guarding Hansbrough one-on-one isn?t the issue, it is denying
him the countless garbage points he seems to always pick up by being in the right place at the right time. We saw Kansas have a tough time defending Michael Beasley (64 points in both games combined) and unlike K-State, focusing
too much effort on Hansbrough will ultimately lead to one if not two of UNC?s arsenal of players to have big games. And while we give much respect to KU?s defense, keep in mind North Carolina averaged 82.6 ppg this season when shooting below 45% from the floor. Even though there is going to be an obvious knee-jerk reaction to how ?ugly? Kansas played in their win against Davidson, the fact of the matter is we feel the three-point line is just. The play, however,
goes to the Tar Heels who look to be one of the most potent and efficient offenses in recent tournament history
MEMPHIS VS UCLA
Recommendation: Memphis
UCLA played its best game of the tournament in its Elite Eight win over Xavier, shooting 50% from the field, staking claim on the glass and allowing only one Musketeer player to shoot over 50% from the floor. A key for the Bruins in this game is going to be avoiding the large first half deficit,
something Memphis inflicted on both Michigan State and Texas. Another key is perimeter defense on the bevy of Memphis guards that are relentless off the dribble. The Bruins are now making their third straight trip to the Final Four, but those appearances have been anything but pretty offensively. Two years ago, en route to a National Title game loss to Florida, the Bruins failed to reach the 60-point mark. Last season, in their Final Four rematch vs. the Gators, the Bruins shot only 39% from the floor. And while the UCLA defense is arguably the best of the remaining four teams, the bottom line is that they are going to need to not only counter the expected offensive surges of Memphis, but find ways to score down the stretch. As for Memphis, it continues
to be the Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose show, with both players combining for 43 ppg through four tournament
games. On paper, UCLA does not have a player who can matchup with Douglas-Roberts, let alone Rose. Darren Collison has been a disappointment thus far and will likely have a tough time coming with strong efforts on both ends of the court. The matchup in the paint we see as a wash. UCLA?s Kevin Love will inevitably have his 20-10 night but Memphis will be able to throw multiple big bodies at him throughout the night. We need to make mention of the ?hack-a-Tiger? theory, something both Texas and Mississippi
State utilized. Texas was down double-digits for most of the game and felt its only chance was to start fouling with more than three minutes left in the game. The gamble didn?t pay off as UM shot 30-of-36, 83% for the game, proving
good free throw shooting is nothing more than the will to concentrate and focus. In what should have been an easy ticket to cash for those who played the Under became the epitome of frustration as the clock stood at a virtual standstill
the last three minutes of the game. Even with the stellar
performance from the line from Memphis against UT, if UCLA is down by anything inside of 15, they?ll be fouling until the final buzzer. They say defense wins championships and while there is some truth to that theory, you can?t put enough value on being able to score in bunches. UCLA?s defense
is a team-oriented, containment-style that has little trouble shutting down average offenses. Memphis not only has a superior offense, but their individual talent is one few teams have been able overcome. Take the Tigers to advance
to the Finals on the backs of their stellar guard play
NC VS KANSAS
Recommendation: North Carolina
Louisville?s game plan was more than questionable especially
in the first half as they decided to pick up North Carolina
full court. The result wasn?t pretty with Ty Lawson being one of the quickest players in the country free throw line to free throw line. This game is virtually a mirror image of the other Final Four matchup in that UNC, like Memphis, can pour on 8-10 points before KU even knew what him them. So if the Jayhawks want to compete or even win this game, their transition defense needs to have zero flaws. Statistically,
UNC?s defense wasn?t all that impressive vs. Louisville but the fact that they were in control of the game for virtually all of the 40 minutes, makes the Cardinals? 53% field goal night meaningless. KU is a notch above Louisville on offense and will need to have a good balance of transition and half court baskets to keep the Tar Heels honest. Kansas? defense has flat out dominated each and every opponent thus far in the tournament. Davidson shot the best of the Jayhawks? four opponents at 39% and more importantly were held to just four points the last 5:20 of the ball game. And for all of those people who feel Kansas took Davidson lightly, we?ll be the first to point out that the Wildcats were not only worthy of being in that game, but had they won, it wouldn?t have been because Kansas overlooked them. Down the stretch, KU did exactly what they needed to do to win the game and that was to shut down Stephen Curry. Now, it took a box-and-one defense to do so, but this far into the tournament,
you can?t become wrapped up in how much or little teams win by game to game. For Kansas, this will mark the first time since November of 2006 that they will be playing the role of an underdog. In that game, they defeated Florida, 82-80 in overtime. Florida obviously went on the win the National Title. An obvious key matchup in this game will be how the Jayhawks defend Tyler Hansbrough on the block. Guarding Hansbrough one-on-one isn?t the issue, it is denying
him the countless garbage points he seems to always pick up by being in the right place at the right time. We saw Kansas have a tough time defending Michael Beasley (64 points in both games combined) and unlike K-State, focusing
too much effort on Hansbrough will ultimately lead to one if not two of UNC?s arsenal of players to have big games. And while we give much respect to KU?s defense, keep in mind North Carolina averaged 82.6 ppg this season when shooting below 45% from the floor. Even though there is going to be an obvious knee-jerk reaction to how ?ugly? Kansas played in their win against Davidson, the fact of the matter is we feel the three-point line is just. The play, however,
goes to the Tar Heels who look to be one of the most potent and efficient offenses in recent tournament history
DR. BOB
UCLA (+2) 2-Stars at +2 or more.
Kansas (+3) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Ucla (+2) over Memphis
Sat. 03:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 814
My ratings favored UCLA ahead of Memphis heading into this tournament and I still rate the Bruins as a better team. Memphis has certainly been impressive the last two games, but the Tigers actually apply to a negative 1-13 ATS Final Four situation that is based on their impressive recent performances. My ratings favor UCLA by a point and I?ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**Kansas (+3) over North Carolina
Sat. 05:45 PM Pacific - Rotation 815
No team has been more impressive than North Carolina in this tournament, but that does not necessary bode well for them in the Final Four. Teams that covered the spread in their first 4 tournament games are 0-10 ATS in the national semifinals against teams that have not covered all 4 tourney games (since 1993), so don?t overreact to the Tarheels? great tournament run in which all 4 games were semi-home games played in the state of North Carolina. North Carolina actually applies to a very negative 4-33 ATS NCAA Tournament situation and teams coming off a spread loss in their regional finals win (as Kansas is) are 9-1 ATS in the national semis, so don?t make too much of the Jayhawks? close call against an underrated Davidson squad. In fact, North Carolina only beat Davidson by 4 points when they played the Wildcats back in November. My ratings do favor North Carolina by 3 ? points, but I?ll give up some line value to make the Jayhawks a Best Bet because the situation is so strong. I?ll take Kansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more.
UCLA (+2) 2-Stars at +2 or more.
Kansas (+3) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Ucla (+2) over Memphis
Sat. 03:05 PM Pacific - Rotation 814
My ratings favored UCLA ahead of Memphis heading into this tournament and I still rate the Bruins as a better team. Memphis has certainly been impressive the last two games, but the Tigers actually apply to a negative 1-13 ATS Final Four situation that is based on their impressive recent performances. My ratings favor UCLA by a point and I?ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**Kansas (+3) over North Carolina
Sat. 05:45 PM Pacific - Rotation 815
No team has been more impressive than North Carolina in this tournament, but that does not necessary bode well for them in the Final Four. Teams that covered the spread in their first 4 tournament games are 0-10 ATS in the national semifinals against teams that have not covered all 4 tourney games (since 1993), so don?t overreact to the Tarheels? great tournament run in which all 4 games were semi-home games played in the state of North Carolina. North Carolina actually applies to a very negative 4-33 ATS NCAA Tournament situation and teams coming off a spread loss in their regional finals win (as Kansas is) are 9-1 ATS in the national semis, so don?t make too much of the Jayhawks? close call against an underrated Davidson squad. In fact, North Carolina only beat Davidson by 4 points when they played the Wildcats back in November. My ratings do favor North Carolina by 3 ? points, but I?ll give up some line value to make the Jayhawks a Best Bet because the situation is so strong. I?ll take Kansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more.
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Comps
Marc Lawrence
ATLANTA HAWKS
Falcons take on the Sixers in a right back revenge rematch from last night's 109-104 home loss as they look to stay in contention of a playoff spot. Interestingly, Atlanta has fared well this season in games against unrested foes, going 13-5 SU and ATS. Couple that with Philadelphia's dismal 6-12-1 ATS mark at home versus .400 or greater opponents this season and we'll back the avenging Hawks here tonight.
Dave Cokin
NY METS
The Atlanta bullpen looks like a real trouble spot right now, and that's a potential difference maker as they host the Mets Saturday. John Maine had a great spring and I like it to carry over to his first regular season start. The Mets are the choice.
Jim Feist
CELTICS / BOBCATS UNDER
Boston is outstanding defensively, allowing 90 ppg and 41% shooting by opponents, both tops in the NBA. They take on a Charlotte Bobcat squad that is not a great shooting team. The Bobcats appear to be tiring out offensively at the end of a long season, on an 8-3 run under the total. The Celtics won't have any trouble shutting them down, and they are on a 9-5-1 run under the total of their own. Play the Celtics/Bobcats under the total!
Bobby Maxwell
3♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES +110
With Friday's 7-4 win over the Mariners, the Orioles have now won two straight after opening the season with a loss to the Devil Rays. And Baltimore is scoring some runs, beating the D'Rays 9-6 on Wednesday to go along with the 7-4 win on Friday. Lefty Adam Loewen starts tonight for the Orioles after going 2-0 in just six starts last season with a 3.56 ERA in 30.1 innings. He started 19 games in 2006, going 6-6 with a 5.37 ERA. Veteran Miguel Batista starts for Seattle after coming in the game against Texas on Wednesday and pitching an inning of relief and getting the save. He was 16-11 last year with a 4.29 ERA in 32 starts for the Mariners. And while the Baltimore starters have been a little shaky this season, the bullpen has been outstanding, allowing just on run in 12 innings of work. The Mariners have been horrible in the pen, giving up nine earned runs in 11 innings this season. The Orioles offense is going to be the question mark all season but they've played well so far and look for them to have another good one against Batista. If Baltimore's Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are hitting this can be a dangerous team. If not, they are going to be quiet. But they're hitting so far and the three combined for seven hits Friday. Let's play the Orioles to keep hitting and win this one tonight.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -6
24 hours ago these two teams played in Atlanta and the Hawks couldn't stop the Sixers. What will be different tonight when the series shifts to Philadelphia? Nothing. Look for the Sixers to continue this amazing roll they're on and win this one by 10 points. Philly is 13-4 since March 1 and gotten the cash in 12 of those 17 games. They've played so well, they've earned their spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs after a lot of experts were saying this was one of the worst teams in the NBA early in the season. The Sixers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games with the only loss coming to the Suns on March 28. They are on ATS runs of 12-4 at home, 23-8-1 in their last 32 overall and 36-15 on Saturdays. Credit to Maurice Cheeks for bringing this team together and making them realize that they could compete in the East. Atlanta was a chic pick to make the playoffs early in the season but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. The Hawks just can't seem to get into that final spot and always seem to shoot themselves in the foot when they get close. While I don't think he's a championship point guard, Andre Miller has definitely brought some stability and smart play to the Sixers. Look for them to get an easy win tonight over the Hawks and make it two in a row in 24 hours.
Sports Gambling Hotline
2♦ ATLANTA HAWKS +6
Always tough in this league to sweep a home-and-home, let alone cover in both contests, so we like the points to work in this spot. The Hawks had won the previous 2 meetings, and 3 of the previous 4 straight up, while going 3-0-1 against the spread in those 4 tilts. The Sixers have been hot, and they may come through with the outright here, but this number seems just a little too high for the cover. Play on the Hawks plus the points.
Chuck Franklin
3♦ DENVER NUGGETS -11
The Nuggets, without a suspended Kenyon Martin, are in a must-win situation if they want to keep the Golden State Warriors from overtaking them for the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference. Denver is a solid 31-7 at the Pepsi Center and has won nine consective home games. This will be an easy win and cover. As well as the Kings are playing lately, they have covered the spread only three times in the last 12 road games and they are only 1-4 ATS the last five games they've played after winning by more than 10 points their previous game. Denver has covered 10 of the last 13 games overall and 16 of the last 21 home games. They are on a 5-0 ATS run when playing teams with a losing record. This will be an absolute blowout!
Karl Garrett
3♦ KANSAS / UNC OVER 160
Yes, this is a rather imposing total, especially considering the Jayhawks have played UNDER the total in 4 in a row, and 6 of their last 8. But, on the other side of the coin is the fact the Tar Heels have been OVER the posted price in 4 of their last 5 games, and are 8-3-1 OVER the total in their last 12 games overall. It should also be noted that 8 of the last 11 North Carolina games played against non-conference foes have also eclipsed the posted price. You know that North Carolina is going to try and push the pace, and the Jayhawks do have the shooters from behind the arc to make their mark in this game. I expect the points to add up in this one. Play the OVER.
Triple Threat Sports
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Tribe played a sloppy game yesterday, throwing the ball all over the yard and making baserunning errors as well. Should be back focused here and the offense should not have a ton of trouble with Eveland, who has a 7.55 ERA in 64.1 Major League innings.
Matt Rivers
NY METS
Mike Pelfrey has been a total disappointment so far in his young big league career and is more than likely never going to be a Tom Glavine but the former Met and current (once again) Braves southpaw does not scare me at all. Don't get me wrong, Glavine will be a Hall of Famer and more than likely get in on the first ballot but right now he is fairly average and probably does not have the pin point control or the overall upside that he used to have. All in all I still value the Mets as the clear better team with guys in Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado and others who are flat out scary. Chipper and Teixera are studs themselves but I do not love the makeup right now of Bobby Cox' team as I really believe they will miss Andruw Jones. An outfield of Francouer, Diaz and Kotsay is extremely mediocre and the Atlanta bullpen is extremely sketchy. Pelfrey certainly has implosion capabilities making this far from the lock of my life but I will take my chances with this price backing Willie Randolph's superior club for sure.
Marc Lawrence
ATLANTA HAWKS
Falcons take on the Sixers in a right back revenge rematch from last night's 109-104 home loss as they look to stay in contention of a playoff spot. Interestingly, Atlanta has fared well this season in games against unrested foes, going 13-5 SU and ATS. Couple that with Philadelphia's dismal 6-12-1 ATS mark at home versus .400 or greater opponents this season and we'll back the avenging Hawks here tonight.
Dave Cokin
NY METS
The Atlanta bullpen looks like a real trouble spot right now, and that's a potential difference maker as they host the Mets Saturday. John Maine had a great spring and I like it to carry over to his first regular season start. The Mets are the choice.
Jim Feist
CELTICS / BOBCATS UNDER
Boston is outstanding defensively, allowing 90 ppg and 41% shooting by opponents, both tops in the NBA. They take on a Charlotte Bobcat squad that is not a great shooting team. The Bobcats appear to be tiring out offensively at the end of a long season, on an 8-3 run under the total. The Celtics won't have any trouble shutting them down, and they are on a 9-5-1 run under the total of their own. Play the Celtics/Bobcats under the total!
Bobby Maxwell
3♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES +110
With Friday's 7-4 win over the Mariners, the Orioles have now won two straight after opening the season with a loss to the Devil Rays. And Baltimore is scoring some runs, beating the D'Rays 9-6 on Wednesday to go along with the 7-4 win on Friday. Lefty Adam Loewen starts tonight for the Orioles after going 2-0 in just six starts last season with a 3.56 ERA in 30.1 innings. He started 19 games in 2006, going 6-6 with a 5.37 ERA. Veteran Miguel Batista starts for Seattle after coming in the game against Texas on Wednesday and pitching an inning of relief and getting the save. He was 16-11 last year with a 4.29 ERA in 32 starts for the Mariners. And while the Baltimore starters have been a little shaky this season, the bullpen has been outstanding, allowing just on run in 12 innings of work. The Mariners have been horrible in the pen, giving up nine earned runs in 11 innings this season. The Orioles offense is going to be the question mark all season but they've played well so far and look for them to have another good one against Batista. If Baltimore's Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are hitting this can be a dangerous team. If not, they are going to be quiet. But they're hitting so far and the three combined for seven hits Friday. Let's play the Orioles to keep hitting and win this one tonight.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -6
24 hours ago these two teams played in Atlanta and the Hawks couldn't stop the Sixers. What will be different tonight when the series shifts to Philadelphia? Nothing. Look for the Sixers to continue this amazing roll they're on and win this one by 10 points. Philly is 13-4 since March 1 and gotten the cash in 12 of those 17 games. They've played so well, they've earned their spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs after a lot of experts were saying this was one of the worst teams in the NBA early in the season. The Sixers are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games with the only loss coming to the Suns on March 28. They are on ATS runs of 12-4 at home, 23-8-1 in their last 32 overall and 36-15 on Saturdays. Credit to Maurice Cheeks for bringing this team together and making them realize that they could compete in the East. Atlanta was a chic pick to make the playoffs early in the season but it doesn't look like it's going to happen. The Hawks just can't seem to get into that final spot and always seem to shoot themselves in the foot when they get close. While I don't think he's a championship point guard, Andre Miller has definitely brought some stability and smart play to the Sixers. Look for them to get an easy win tonight over the Hawks and make it two in a row in 24 hours.
Sports Gambling Hotline
2♦ ATLANTA HAWKS +6
Always tough in this league to sweep a home-and-home, let alone cover in both contests, so we like the points to work in this spot. The Hawks had won the previous 2 meetings, and 3 of the previous 4 straight up, while going 3-0-1 against the spread in those 4 tilts. The Sixers have been hot, and they may come through with the outright here, but this number seems just a little too high for the cover. Play on the Hawks plus the points.
Chuck Franklin
3♦ DENVER NUGGETS -11
The Nuggets, without a suspended Kenyon Martin, are in a must-win situation if they want to keep the Golden State Warriors from overtaking them for the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference. Denver is a solid 31-7 at the Pepsi Center and has won nine consective home games. This will be an easy win and cover. As well as the Kings are playing lately, they have covered the spread only three times in the last 12 road games and they are only 1-4 ATS the last five games they've played after winning by more than 10 points their previous game. Denver has covered 10 of the last 13 games overall and 16 of the last 21 home games. They are on a 5-0 ATS run when playing teams with a losing record. This will be an absolute blowout!
Karl Garrett
3♦ KANSAS / UNC OVER 160
Yes, this is a rather imposing total, especially considering the Jayhawks have played UNDER the total in 4 in a row, and 6 of their last 8. But, on the other side of the coin is the fact the Tar Heels have been OVER the posted price in 4 of their last 5 games, and are 8-3-1 OVER the total in their last 12 games overall. It should also be noted that 8 of the last 11 North Carolina games played against non-conference foes have also eclipsed the posted price. You know that North Carolina is going to try and push the pace, and the Jayhawks do have the shooters from behind the arc to make their mark in this game. I expect the points to add up in this one. Play the OVER.
Triple Threat Sports
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Tribe played a sloppy game yesterday, throwing the ball all over the yard and making baserunning errors as well. Should be back focused here and the offense should not have a ton of trouble with Eveland, who has a 7.55 ERA in 64.1 Major League innings.
Matt Rivers
NY METS
Mike Pelfrey has been a total disappointment so far in his young big league career and is more than likely never going to be a Tom Glavine but the former Met and current (once again) Braves southpaw does not scare me at all. Don't get me wrong, Glavine will be a Hall of Famer and more than likely get in on the first ballot but right now he is fairly average and probably does not have the pin point control or the overall upside that he used to have. All in all I still value the Mets as the clear better team with guys in Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado and others who are flat out scary. Chipper and Teixera are studs themselves but I do not love the makeup right now of Bobby Cox' team as I really believe they will miss Andruw Jones. An outfield of Francouer, Diaz and Kotsay is extremely mediocre and the Atlanta bullpen is extremely sketchy. Pelfrey certainly has implosion capabilities making this far from the lock of my life but I will take my chances with this price backing Willie Randolph's superior club for sure.
Comps
Jeff Benton
5♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES
Here?s the deal with this play: Anytime I can get the second best pitcher in baseball, on his home field, and only have to lay a small price, I?m taking it. Every time. I don?t care who the opponent is. I watched Peavy in his debut against Roy Oswalt and the Astros on Monday, and he was absolutely phenomenal as he surrendered just three hits and three walks in seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 win. Now the reigning N.L. Cy Young winner faces the Dodgers, against whom he went 3-0 last year with a 2.08 ERA, giving up just 22 hits and nine walks in 34 2/3 innings. Not only did the Padres win all five of Peavy?s starts against the Dodgers, but they?re 10-1 in his last 11 starts against L.A., including 5-0 at home! So I don?t care that the Dodgers are countering with their ace, Brad Penny. They?re not winning this game against Peavy, especially when you factor in that Penny is 3-6 with a beefy 5.61 ERA in his career against San Diego. Also, the Dodgers are 2-6 in Penny?s eight outings versus the Padres since he joined the organization in 2004, including 0-4 at Petco Park. This one?s almost too easy. Lay the price with Peavy and the Padres.
Jake Timlin
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1? RL
All Milwaukee minus the Run Line as they blowout the Giants once again. Looking at last night?s meeting there is two things that can be taken from the Brewers 13-4 win and that is San Francisco is going to struggle this year and that Milwaukee continues to be a dangerous offensive team. Well thanks to being at home and facing an inexperienced Corrreia look for another blowout in Milwaukee today. I mean with Milwaukee?s offense picking where they left off last year with 28 runs in four games and now facing a San Francisco team that has just 2 wins in their last 11 games in Milwaukee and with the Giants being outscored so far this year 22-8 it is very likely that the Giants will get buried today. So since I am looking blowout back the Brewers tonight on the Run line and minus -1 ? runs!
Tony Weston
3♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES
OK, so sure the Padres got bombed last night as the Dodgers beat them 7-1 in the first game of their series opener. But through six innings the game was tied 1-1. It wasn?t until Joe Thatcher took the mound for did the bottom fall out. Officially Thatcher gave up only four earned runs, but it seemed like 15. Luckily for the Pads, Thatcher likely won?t be brought in today as Jake Peavy, arguably the best pitcher in the game today, takes the mound for San Diego. And usually when Peavy starts against the Dodgers, you can chalk it up as a win. I will. The Padres are 10-1 in Peavy?s last 11 starts against Los Angeles, they?re 6-0 in his last six home starts against the Dodgers and they?re 4-1 in the last five meetings when Peavy faces Los Angeles starting pitcher Brad Penny. Bottom line, Peavy owns the Dodgers and San Diego will get the win. Take the Padres at home.
James Patrick Sports
WIZARDS / BULLS OVER
The Bulls shot the lights out in Cleveland on Thursday and the Wizards now have Arenas back on the court and we look for these NBA teams to put up some numbers in this game and our call for Saturday?s NBA complimentary selection is #809 Wash-Chi OVER the TOTAL.
Greg Daraban
DENVER NUGGETS
Key in gamein the west for a playoff spot especially for Denver. Sacramento is already out of it. The Nuggets need the game and they will go all out on this one. The Nuggets have won 7 of 10. They are just ? game ahead of the Warriors for the last spot. Take Denver.
Fairway Jay
NEW JERSEY NETS
Tough travels for Toronto, who finds themselves in an unfavorable schedule spot here versus division foe New Jersey. The Raptors are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and come off a home game Friday evening following a pair of road contests. Tough travel and turnaround here taking on a Nets team that is pushing for a playoff spot and eager to turn the tables on Toronto for the two blowout losses this season. Off their Friday contest at Detroit, New Jersey has just two home games remaining in their final seven contests and they will be the more motivated team with better energy and effort. The Nets have become a much more efficient offensive team since the Devin Harris trade, as they share the ball better and have improved offensive rhythm and scoring production. The Nets have scored over 103 points in 10 of their last 12 games entering the week. Meanwhile, despite the return of Chris Bosh and T.J. Ford back into the starting lineup, Toronto has allowed two other top-tier offensive teams to score 109+ points in defeat. The Raptors have lost six-straight road games entering the week, and this game looks quite meaningless to Toronto with regards to playoff positioning. There are also some very strong late-season situational parameters that could be in play here based on these two team?s results during the week. Check back Saturday for the update, but we?ll support New Jersey here regardless as the Nets ?shoot? their way to a solid home victory.
Jared Klein
CALGARY FLAMES
So far heading into this week, nothing has been decided on who will be the Northwest Division champion. Here is a quick breakdown of the contenders for the Northwest: Minnesota is five points up on Calgary but the Flames currently have two games in hand. Minnesota has two games left (one road, one home). Colorado has two out of their last three on the road against the Northwest Division. They are four points back from Minnesota with only two games left. And Vancouver has three out of their last four at home. Injuries are starting to get to the Canucks and I don?t feel they are going to be left standing in the race for the Northwest Division crown. Brendan Morrison and defensemen Lukas Rejoice and Mattias Ohlund are out for the rest of the season and it looks like the Canucks are going to miss the playoffs after winning the Northwest last season. What makes matters worse is that All-Star goaltender Roberto Luongo?s wife just delivered a baby last week and in his first game back he gave up four goals against Minnesota. Calgary plays their last four games on the road all against the Northwest, but having said that I still think they have a good opportunity to win their division because of their vastly improved 19-18 road record this year compared to last year?s dismal mark of 13-28. Look for the Flames to take advantage of a banged up Vancouver team and stay in the hunt for the Division crown.
Brent Crow
MEMPHIS / UCLA OVER 134?
This matchup offers two excellent defensive teams, but we still like the total to go over 134.5. My power rating numbers make the total for this game at 142, so I think there is value in playing the over based on numbers alone. Despite the great defense that both teams are capable of playing, the tempo of this game and the fact that both teams are so good offensively is what also makes this a good bet to go over. Memphis is more well known for their up-tempo game, but the Bruins will also push the pace when given the chance. The UCLA guards, Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook, are both excellent in the open court on the break, and both are tremendous finishers around the rim. Memphis also has a slew of guards and athletes that can get out and finish on the break. Both teams are also well aware of the caliber of defense that their opposition plays, so each coach knows that the need for easy buckets out on the break is key. For that reason, I do not think either coach will want to get caught in a grind-it-out half-court game. Memphis had many opponents try to slow the game down during conference play, but those were overmatched opponents, which UCLA is obviously not. The Bruins actually prefer to play fairly fast, and they are not about to change their style of play because of Memphis. Look for both teams to potentially score in the 70s as we side with the over
Jeff Benton
5♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES
Here?s the deal with this play: Anytime I can get the second best pitcher in baseball, on his home field, and only have to lay a small price, I?m taking it. Every time. I don?t care who the opponent is. I watched Peavy in his debut against Roy Oswalt and the Astros on Monday, and he was absolutely phenomenal as he surrendered just three hits and three walks in seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 win. Now the reigning N.L. Cy Young winner faces the Dodgers, against whom he went 3-0 last year with a 2.08 ERA, giving up just 22 hits and nine walks in 34 2/3 innings. Not only did the Padres win all five of Peavy?s starts against the Dodgers, but they?re 10-1 in his last 11 starts against L.A., including 5-0 at home! So I don?t care that the Dodgers are countering with their ace, Brad Penny. They?re not winning this game against Peavy, especially when you factor in that Penny is 3-6 with a beefy 5.61 ERA in his career against San Diego. Also, the Dodgers are 2-6 in Penny?s eight outings versus the Padres since he joined the organization in 2004, including 0-4 at Petco Park. This one?s almost too easy. Lay the price with Peavy and the Padres.
Jake Timlin
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1? RL
All Milwaukee minus the Run Line as they blowout the Giants once again. Looking at last night?s meeting there is two things that can be taken from the Brewers 13-4 win and that is San Francisco is going to struggle this year and that Milwaukee continues to be a dangerous offensive team. Well thanks to being at home and facing an inexperienced Corrreia look for another blowout in Milwaukee today. I mean with Milwaukee?s offense picking where they left off last year with 28 runs in four games and now facing a San Francisco team that has just 2 wins in their last 11 games in Milwaukee and with the Giants being outscored so far this year 22-8 it is very likely that the Giants will get buried today. So since I am looking blowout back the Brewers tonight on the Run line and minus -1 ? runs!
Tony Weston
3♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES
OK, so sure the Padres got bombed last night as the Dodgers beat them 7-1 in the first game of their series opener. But through six innings the game was tied 1-1. It wasn?t until Joe Thatcher took the mound for did the bottom fall out. Officially Thatcher gave up only four earned runs, but it seemed like 15. Luckily for the Pads, Thatcher likely won?t be brought in today as Jake Peavy, arguably the best pitcher in the game today, takes the mound for San Diego. And usually when Peavy starts against the Dodgers, you can chalk it up as a win. I will. The Padres are 10-1 in Peavy?s last 11 starts against Los Angeles, they?re 6-0 in his last six home starts against the Dodgers and they?re 4-1 in the last five meetings when Peavy faces Los Angeles starting pitcher Brad Penny. Bottom line, Peavy owns the Dodgers and San Diego will get the win. Take the Padres at home.
James Patrick Sports
WIZARDS / BULLS OVER
The Bulls shot the lights out in Cleveland on Thursday and the Wizards now have Arenas back on the court and we look for these NBA teams to put up some numbers in this game and our call for Saturday?s NBA complimentary selection is #809 Wash-Chi OVER the TOTAL.
Greg Daraban
DENVER NUGGETS
Key in gamein the west for a playoff spot especially for Denver. Sacramento is already out of it. The Nuggets need the game and they will go all out on this one. The Nuggets have won 7 of 10. They are just ? game ahead of the Warriors for the last spot. Take Denver.
Fairway Jay
NEW JERSEY NETS
Tough travels for Toronto, who finds themselves in an unfavorable schedule spot here versus division foe New Jersey. The Raptors are playing their fifth game in seven nights, and come off a home game Friday evening following a pair of road contests. Tough travel and turnaround here taking on a Nets team that is pushing for a playoff spot and eager to turn the tables on Toronto for the two blowout losses this season. Off their Friday contest at Detroit, New Jersey has just two home games remaining in their final seven contests and they will be the more motivated team with better energy and effort. The Nets have become a much more efficient offensive team since the Devin Harris trade, as they share the ball better and have improved offensive rhythm and scoring production. The Nets have scored over 103 points in 10 of their last 12 games entering the week. Meanwhile, despite the return of Chris Bosh and T.J. Ford back into the starting lineup, Toronto has allowed two other top-tier offensive teams to score 109+ points in defeat. The Raptors have lost six-straight road games entering the week, and this game looks quite meaningless to Toronto with regards to playoff positioning. There are also some very strong late-season situational parameters that could be in play here based on these two team?s results during the week. Check back Saturday for the update, but we?ll support New Jersey here regardless as the Nets ?shoot? their way to a solid home victory.
Jared Klein
CALGARY FLAMES
So far heading into this week, nothing has been decided on who will be the Northwest Division champion. Here is a quick breakdown of the contenders for the Northwest: Minnesota is five points up on Calgary but the Flames currently have two games in hand. Minnesota has two games left (one road, one home). Colorado has two out of their last three on the road against the Northwest Division. They are four points back from Minnesota with only two games left. And Vancouver has three out of their last four at home. Injuries are starting to get to the Canucks and I don?t feel they are going to be left standing in the race for the Northwest Division crown. Brendan Morrison and defensemen Lukas Rejoice and Mattias Ohlund are out for the rest of the season and it looks like the Canucks are going to miss the playoffs after winning the Northwest last season. What makes matters worse is that All-Star goaltender Roberto Luongo?s wife just delivered a baby last week and in his first game back he gave up four goals against Minnesota. Calgary plays their last four games on the road all against the Northwest, but having said that I still think they have a good opportunity to win their division because of their vastly improved 19-18 road record this year compared to last year?s dismal mark of 13-28. Look for the Flames to take advantage of a banged up Vancouver team and stay in the hunt for the Division crown.
Brent Crow
MEMPHIS / UCLA OVER 134?
This matchup offers two excellent defensive teams, but we still like the total to go over 134.5. My power rating numbers make the total for this game at 142, so I think there is value in playing the over based on numbers alone. Despite the great defense that both teams are capable of playing, the tempo of this game and the fact that both teams are so good offensively is what also makes this a good bet to go over. Memphis is more well known for their up-tempo game, but the Bruins will also push the pace when given the chance. The UCLA guards, Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook, are both excellent in the open court on the break, and both are tremendous finishers around the rim. Memphis also has a slew of guards and athletes that can get out and finish on the break. Both teams are also well aware of the caliber of defense that their opposition plays, so each coach knows that the need for easy buckets out on the break is key. For that reason, I do not think either coach will want to get caught in a grind-it-out half-court game. Memphis had many opponents try to slow the game down during conference play, but those were overmatched opponents, which UCLA is obviously not. The Bruins actually prefer to play fairly fast, and they are not about to change their style of play because of Memphis. Look for both teams to potentially score in the 70s as we side with the over
