Drew Gordon
1. 400,000♦ North Carolina
2. 50,000♦ Memphis
3. 50,000♦ Pirates
1. North Carolina- While a lot of bettors seem to like North Carolina in this game, I believe they like the Tarheels for the wrong reasons, and I'm here to give you the right one's. If you think Kansas is going to come out flat, like they did against Davidson, then you don't know basketball, plain and simple. Make no mistake, the Jayhawks will come out fired up for this one, but that being said, I still firmly believe the Tarheels win and cover this contest and here's why:
First and foremost, the Tarheels have the best two players on the court, at the most critical positions - point guard & center. It took him some time, but clearly Ty Lawson is now fully recovered from his ankle injury. When he's at top speed, like right now, he's one of the fastest and most dangerous point guards in the country, bar none. Lawson's tourney numbers: 15 ppg, 4 assists/game, 1+ steals/game, AND just 6 turnovers overall! Good luck to any Jayhawks who draws the assignment of covering the red-hot Lawson!
Then there's Hansbrough, who's the key to this contest. Not only has he ripped through some of the best defenses in the country, game in and game out (28 points, 13 rebounds against a HUGE Louisville frontline), but his ability to extend the defense and hit free throws is critical in this contest. His mid-range jumper killed the Cardinals in Elite Eight, and it'll do the same tonight. He's one of the smartest players in college basketball, and you best believe Kansas C Darrell Arthur is in BIG trouble tonight... He not only got manhandled by a smaller Davidson frontline (just 7 points, 5 rebounds), but has a real penchant for foul trouble (113 personal fouls on the season) which plays right into Hansbrough gameplan.
Looking over the rest of the match ups, I'm willing to say its just about a push across the board. Rush and Chalmers will get theirs, but so will Ellington and super-sub Danny Green. Some say Chalmers is the best defender on the floor, but Marcus Ginyard is rock-solid and will pester Rush the entire game. While overall the Kansas has the better defense, the Tarheels edge on offense with Lawson and Hanbrough is greater, especially with some of the inconsistency we've seen from the Jayhawks offense this season.
Finally, as a last note, you've got to give the coaching the edge to Roy Williams, who has Championship experience. I know its a corny and sometimes over-hyped factor, but not when the opposing coach maybe fielding offers from his alma mater Oklahoma State! I don't care what anyone says, Williams is the better coach, he proved it against Pitino in the Elite Eight, and he's proved it time and again before that.
Bottom line, in a relatively close contest, the difference comes down to the two best players on the court and their ability to change the game at any moment. Lawson will have this Tarheels offense firing on all cylinders, like he has all tourney long. While you can expect Hansbrough to keep the Kansas bigmen guessing all night and spending plenty of time on the bench in foul trouble (Arthur especially). In the end, Tarheels roll!
Take North Carolina over Kansas as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Memphis- Athleticism. That's what it comes down to in this contest... The Tigers have it, and the Bruins simply don't have enough of it. Say what you will about star C Kevin Love and his success this season, but he's yet to see two more athletic bigmen than Memphis' Dozier and Dorsey. If the Bruins think a freshman center is going to be the undoing of this surging Tigers team, they've got another thing coming tonight! But let's dig a little deeper...
When you consider Love might be overmatched for the first time all season, it takes a lot of luster off this UCLA team, but that's not where the mismatches end. Memphis has a strong edge in the backcourt as well, with freshman phenom Derek Rose teaming up with Chris Douglas-Roberts, one of the most underrated players in college basketball this season, to lead the Tigers attack.
Granted, I'm not saying the Bruins are a pushover here, far from it, but its the match ups that are their downfall. For example, Darren Collison, will be working against Antonio Anderson all game long - a tough match up for Collison. While we already discussed both Rose and Douglas-Roberts match up edges. And finally, while not a tremendous advantage, I'll still take Dorsey and Dozier (in Calipari's system) over Mbah a Moute and Love.
Critics will argue that the Bruins have a strong edge in experience, which is absolutely true... But if you want to take the more "experienced" team over the team that just finishing wiping the floor with Michigan State and Texas (in Houston), then be my guest! People are constantly trying to punch holes in this Memphis squad because they come from a weaker conference, but truth be told, they may be the most complete team left in March Mayhem, and it'll show tonight.
Take Memphis over UCLA in tonight's Final Four showdown.
3. Pirates- While the Marlins were excited to ink the big lefty, Mark Hendrickson, to a one-year deal back in January, their expectations were soon dashed, when the southpaw got rocked by the Mets in the season opener. He allowed 6 runs on 7 hits over 5 innings, walking 3 in the process... Not exactly the numbers the Fish were counting on. And unfortunately for Florida, it won't get easier any time soon, as the Pirates have started the season hitting well, batting .281 against lefties thus far.
Speaking of hitting, its clear the Marlins are hurting without Miguel Cabrera, who was the "pop" in Florida batting order. While Hanley Ramirez has stepped up, I cannot disagree more with him hitting in the leadoff spot... He's their best hitter and the Marlins need to put him in a position to bat some runs in, not bat .462 with 1 RBI on the season! Not only that, but with McLouth, Doumit, and especially Nady swinging the bats so well, the disparity on offense is that much more obvious.
Countering Hendrickson will be the Pirates Paul Maholm, who despite going 10-15 with a 5.02 ERA last season, is better than those numbers indicate. The proof is in the pudding, and the last time he pitched at Dolphin Stadium he was excellent, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits in 7 2/3 innings of a 3-2 win back on June 26th of last season! Not only should Maholm outpitch Hendrickson, but based on the Pirates above average hitting to start the season, Maholm should get plenty of support.
Bottom line, look for the Pirates to bounce back strong tonight, thanks in large part to a solid edge on the mound, and an even bigger edge at the plate. Maholm had a great Spring, and many are pointing to this season as a breakout year for the southpaw, and it all starts tonight in South Florida.
Take Pittsburgh behind Malholm over Florida and Hendrickson in this MLB match up.
