Larry Ness
MLB
LA Dodgers v/s San Diego 4/5/2008 3:55:00 pm Predicted Winner: San Diego
Jake Peavy was last year's NL Cy Young winner and didn't wait long in reminding everyone just why. He threw seven shutout innings (allowed just three hits) in the Padres' 4-0 season-opening victory over
Houston on Monday in San Diego. So what else is new? Peavy is now 5-0 with a 0.73 ERA in his last seven starts at Petco Park. While Peavy won the Cy Young last year, LA's Brad Penny was actually a bigger "moneymaker" in '07 than his mound opponent on Saturday. Penny went 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA for LA in '07, while Peavy was 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA for SD. However, in the "all-important" moneyline department, LA was 23-10 (plus-$1,042) in Penny's 33 starts, while SD went 23-11 in Peavy's starts, winning just $253. That being said, I'm "all over" Peavy and the Padres in this one! Peavy is 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 18 career starts against the Dodgers. Although the Padres are "just" 12-6 in those 18 starts, I'll note that last year Peavy faced LA five times, posting a 2.08 ERA and going 3-0 (Padres won all five of his starts!) Speaking of perfection, Petco Park is known as a "pitchers park" and when facing the hated-Dodgers there, Peavy has lived up to the stadium's moniker. Peavy is 4-0 with a 1.22 ERA in six career starts at Petco vs the Dodgers, with the Padres winning all six games! Meanwhile, Penny has been just dreadful vs the Padres, even before coming to the Dodgers. Penny has made 14 career starts against them, going 3-6 with a 5.61 ERA, as his teams have gone 5-9. In three career starts in Petco, he's got a 6.16 ERA. Last night it was LA's new Japanese hurler, Hiroki Kuroda, getting all the headlines with his seven-inning, three-hit, one-run performance in LA's 7-1 win. This afternoon, look for Peavy to grab the headlines as he continues his dominance over the Dodgers, while Penny's "Padre woes" continue.
TV Game of the Week 1
5* San Deigo Padres
Arizona v/s Colorado 4/5/2008 8:05:00 pm Predicted Winner: Colorado
Jeff Francis (17-9, 4.22 ERA) was Colorado's ace last year but was bailed out by the weather on Monday in St Louis. A downpour stopped that game with one out in the third inning, with the Rockies trailing 5-1. Francis was hardly "on his game." Meanwhile, Brandon Webb opened Arizona's season at Cincinnati that same day, giving up just two runs and three hits over six innings to win begin '08 with a win. Arizona shut down Colorado in its home opener last night, as the Rockies managed only two hits in an 8-1 loss. These teams met in the NLCS last year, with Colorado sweeping Arizona, 4-0. Last night's win evened the D'backs record at 2-2 this year, while the Rockies fell to 1-3. The Rockies finished fifth in both team BA (.280) and runs scored (860) last year but they find themselves 30 of 30 teams in BA after four games this year (.185), while scoring a ML-low six runs! However, the D'backs haven't hit much better (.205) this year. I'll also point out that Arizona batted an NL-low .250 last season, scoring 148 fewer runs than the Rockies. Arizona did hit lefties well last year, going 28-17 (plus-$1,195) but the Rockies 'killed' righties in '07, going 70-49 (plus-3,070). At Coors, they were 39-19 (plus-$1.735) vs right-handers, averaging 6.0 RPG. Now let's get to the pitching matchup and why we are getting such a bargain of a price with Francis. Webb (18-10, 3.01 ERA) had one more win and an ERA a full run lower than Francis. However, in regular season starts, Arizona went 22-10 in Webb's starts, while Colorado matched that mark exactly, In Francis' starts. However, while Webb's starts produced a profit of just $460, the Rockies were plus-$1,094 in Francis' starts. Including the postseason, Colorado went 12-6 at home in games started by Francis. The Rockies are 23-10 the last two years in his home starts and 32-16 in his home starts over the last three seasons (see a pattern there?). Now Webb is 48-30 (3.21) the last three seasons for Arizona but the D'backs are a more modest 57-45 in all of his starts, including just 28-24 on the road. These pitchers last met in LY's NLCS, with Francis out-pitching Webb at Arizona in Game 1 of that series (a 5-1 Colorado win). All told, Webb made seven starts against Colorado last year (including the postseason), going 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA. He's 8-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 21 regular season starts vs the Rockies, with the D'backs going 11-10 (11-11 including the playoff loss). Francis on the other hand, is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 14 regular season starts vs the D'backs and the Rockies are 10-5 in his lifetime starts against Arizona, including that NLDS win last season. Webb's an excellent pitcher but getting Francis at home with this price combined with Colorado's great home record against righties (including an excellent history against Webb), is a bargain. The Colorado bats will not stay 'silent' for long. How about a breakout game, tonight?
Oddsmaker's Error
Colorado Rockies
Pittsburgh v/s Florida 4/5/2008 7:10:00 pm Predicted Winner: Over
I'll make this short and sweet! The Marlins were MLB's biggest 'over' team in 2007, going 90-62 to the over (59.2 percent) for the entire season. Pittsburgh wasn't all that far behind, going 83-70 to the over. A lot had to do with the two teams' poor pitching, as Florida ranked 28th (of 30) in team ERA at 4.96 and Pittsburgh ranked 26th (4.94). Well, a quick check of the '08 stat-sheet shows Florida with a team ERA of 6.57 (30th) and Pittsburgh at 6.39 (29th). Surprise, surprise, surprise! Paul Maholm will make his '08 debut for the Pirates, after being scratched from his scheduled start on Thursday, due to back stiffness. Maholm made just six starts for the Pirates in '05 but over the last two seasons has made 59 starts. He's 18-25 with a 4.89 ERA. He was terrible on the road in '07, posting a 6.14 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .328 in 14 starts (Pirates were 5-9). Should that surprise us? Not at all. In '06, he made 15 road starts witha 6.25 ERA (Pirates were 5-10). By the way, if Maholm's back starts acting up, Pittsburgh will have to go to its bullpen early, one which has produced an 8.80 ERA through four games. Florida counters with 6-foot-9 left-hander, Mark Hendrickson. Now for some reason (you tell me?), Hendrickson was signed to a one-year, $1.5 million free-agent contract over the winter. This is his seventh season and after getting tagged for six ERs against the Mets on Monday (in his Florida debut), his career ERA (this is his seventh season with his fourth team) stands at 5.05. That's in 180 appearances (136 starts), having allowed 992 hits in 849 innings! Now you tell me why anyone would play this game under?
Spectacular Saturday Total
Pittsburgh/Florida Over
