G_G_G_G__G_GOALLLLLLLLLLLL - 24/25 edition
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
wow folded early and reverse jinxed a winner out of wolves/brighton . i gave back the juice on villa game but thought it was gonna be worse . I don't like the games this weekend might start looking to next week .trash picks
been treading water since return from break , win a few /lose a few time to get it running 🏃♀️ 🏃♀️
SERIE A
ATALANTA/MONZA OVER 2.5 -138
This line has come down overnight i saw it as high as -163. I will take my chances here betting that Atalanta is going to do much of the heavier lifting. They are top of the charts in Serie A scoring metrics, and they are starting to cook offensively. Atalanta is a horse to ride when they get hot. They have scored 2 or more in their last 4 Serie A games. They come into this after pumping competition with 6 goals and 5 goals in their last 2 home games. If Monza can chip in it will be a bonus, but I am hoping Atalanta brings the heat today.
ATALANTA/MONZA OVER 2.5 -138
This line has come down overnight i saw it as high as -163. I will take my chances here betting that Atalanta is going to do much of the heavier lifting. They are top of the charts in Serie A scoring metrics, and they are starting to cook offensively. Atalanta is a horse to ride when they get hot. They have scored 2 or more in their last 4 Serie A games. They come into this after pumping competition with 6 goals and 5 goals in their last 2 home games. If Monza can chip in it will be a bonus, but I am hoping Atalanta brings the heat today.
I am not much of a league cup guy but will try these
EFL
BRIGHTON/LIVERPOOL OVER 2.5 -150
PRESTON/ARSENAL OVER 2.5 -138
made a few bucks here but I wanted a sweep. atalanta slept walk through huge spells of this game .
SERIE A
LAZIO/COMO OVER 2 , 2 1/2 -115
cheap line given the analytics. both teams top 10 in xG - 6th and 7th respectively. como has given up 5th most goals in serie a , lazio 4th best scoring in Serie A. this +110 on the 2.5 has value too.
ROMA/TORONO OVER 2 , 2 1/2 -115
torino worst xga in the league. 5 of the last 6 torino road games have gone over and they have given up 2 or more in 4 of the last 5 on their travels. roma is 5th best in xG they should get chances against a weak torino back line.
LAZIO/COMO OVER 2 , 2 1/2 -115
cheap line given the analytics. both teams top 10 in xG - 6th and 7th respectively. como has given up 5th most goals in serie a , lazio 4th best scoring in Serie A. this +110 on the 2.5 has value too.
ROMA/TORONO OVER 2 , 2 1/2 -115
torino worst xga in the league. 5 of the last 6 torino road games have gone over and they have given up 2 or more in 4 of the last 5 on their travels. roma is 5th best in xG they should get chances against a weak torino back line.
oddsmakers goofed up that Lazio game, that was such a mistake, and an easy over. Too bad i forced in the Roma match , i expected more there.
Onto the weekend slate.
BOURNEMOUTH/CITY OVER 2.5/3 -125
man city is really banged up but I see atleasr 3 goals here, playing the Asian line.a
SERIE A
PARMA/VENEZIA OVER 2.5 - 150
- not crazy about the price, but i see goals. The BTTS is at -175 , and these teams have had plenty of high scoring affairs in recent matchups down in Serie B. These are the 2 worst xGA teams in the league, and both teams will want to win this game so there should be goalmouth action.
tomorrow
FIORENTINA/VERONA OVER 2.5 -125
doing something with the Lazio game as well just not sure how i am going to play it. They have been piping hot and the oddsmakers keep floating nice prices on their totals.
PARMA/VENEZIA OVER 2.5 - 150
- not crazy about the price, but i see goals. The BTTS is at -175 , and these teams have had plenty of high scoring affairs in recent matchups down in Serie B. These are the 2 worst xGA teams in the league, and both teams will want to win this game so there should be goalmouth action.
tomorrow
FIORENTINA/VERONA OVER 2.5 -125
doing something with the Lazio game as well just not sure how i am going to play it. They have been piping hot and the oddsmakers keep floating nice prices on their totals.
italia is the theme this weekend, so far so good.
ATALANTA /UDINESE OVER 2.5 -110 ummmm this line went from -163 to -110??? buyer beware here maybe the mafia knows something. I have to play this although I could be getting baited. atalanta is #1 in goals scored , xg and home xg. they are playing the 5th worst xga team in serie a. not sure if udinese can find the net but will take my chances at this price. atalanta can pop 3 any time they touch the field against any competition.
LAZIO/MONZA OVER 2 , 2 1/2 +105
Lazio been cooking of late filling the net with multi goal games especially on their travels. Lazio popped 2 goals or more their last 5. Monza is piss poor and dead last in xG. they don't create much but i am hoping for a home field boost. they have scored in 5 of 6 at home. I think Lazio scores twice here. I refund 1/2 my bet on + money with 2 goals.
atalanta game is a perfect example of why you shouldn't get scared of line moves, but rather embrace them lol that line dropped like a stone and the game could of went over after 15 minutes.
now I am looking for FIO to pump a few past Verona. Fio is right up at the top of all offensive metrics and they sku much better at home.
now I am looking for FIO to pump a few past Verona. Fio is right up at the top of all offensive metrics and they sku much better at home.
AUGSBURG/HOFF OVER 2.5 -110
going against the line again , big drop from -150 to -110. these are two bottom tier xga teams that are also top 10 xg. augsburg sku way higher at home , they are putting up multi goal routinely on their turf. both will feel this is a very winnable game. hoffenheim needs this bad.
going against the line again , big drop from -150 to -110. these are two bottom tier xga teams that are also top 10 xg. augsburg sku way higher at home , they are putting up multi goal routinely on their turf. both will feel this is a very winnable game. hoffenheim needs this bad.
