I must say that I am stunned by what I've read here. So many issues come up that I'm not sure where to start.
Several points:
(1) One of the major downsides of posting picks or doing anything remotely related to free handicapping is that it exposes a large reader base to something that is very dangerous. It;s kinda' like giving out free shots of vodka on the Interstate. Since free sites like MadJacks will get many more readers than other sites (pay sites, for instance), that means there are larger numbers of people who can fall through the cracks and get burned. That seems to have happened here, with this individual losing money and now being in a very bad situation. My point is -- a site like this one, with free picks and information, will have a higher number of burnout cases than other (less popular) sites.
(2) I am disturbed that anyone would lose a significant amount of money based on something I did, or posted. I hope that my daily report ADDS to the ongoing dialogue about games, but it certainly is NOT the definitive word. I try my best not to "tout" myself as anything other than a "student" of the game, with still much more to learn. Occassionally, I think I do come up with some good material that is useful in handicapping (some of the angles, for example). But, in all of my writings, I don't think I've ever used the word "lock" or "game of the year," or anything like that.
(3) I do feel that public handicapping is a NO WIN situation. If you succeeed, that just creates more pressure to create the same percentages as more readers start following the plays. Then, when the inevitable downturn comes, you catch all the flack for being wrong. Also, when you come up with something solid, it's lifted off the site and stolen by others. Furthermore, as has been the case with the halftime angles, I have actually seen the lines come down on some of the totals. So, that means we lose value. Of course, when you lose and post the plays, there is no worse feeling in the world. It's one thing to lose money betting, but to know others have lost money makes the situation much worse.
(4) This season, I decided to stick with the angle-based plays no matter what happened al the way until the end of the season. I made a decision to do that to see what the result would be if we used simple math-based formulas to pick NFL winners. I hoped that we might come up with 5-6 systems that consistently hit in the 55 percent range, which would amount to a decent ROI for those who consistently followed the picks. Of course, I failed to do that and ended up with a net loss of about 43 units (with the vig) based on about 550 trials. For a $100 bettor, that means a loss of about $4,300 if anyone played every game to the letter. I doubt if anyone did this, but that would have been the end result.
(5) I personally lost about $5,000 this NFL season, with most bets concentrated in the $100-200 range. The smallest wager I made was $55 and the largest wager I made was $800. I found that the plays I made just prior to the game starting, with more information, were more successful. One problem with posting plays is that the write ups are often done 2-3 days in advance. This is not an excuse, but merely intended to point out that pcking gmaes is a little easier when you have all the way up until game time.
(6) Handicapping is a "science" in that it evolves and is constantly changing. What works one year may not work the next (despite my attempts to identify magic formuilas that work consistently). At my daily report, I invited two other people whom I respect to join and post their plays -- since they have unique systems and I wanted to contrast their plays versus mine (we use completely different methodologies). Again, my intent was to put out this information for consideration only. I certainly have not touted people to bet money on the Goldman plays or The Eastern Eadge or my own.
(7) I take responsiblity for my record (see tomorrow's report). I have no reason to hide or run away from reality. I always say that if my reports is not enteraining, amusing, infromatiive or whatever, then don't read it.
(8) The only source I subscribe to for betting infromation is TWO MINUTE WARNING. They use completely different methods in how they handicap games -- most of which are stattisically based. I noted that even this usually excellent website had a losing year. Ths doesn't make me feel any better, but I should make one point. I paid $200 for the season for their data and still lost money. But I am not blaming them nor am I asking for my money back. In my case, all the information is free and I'm not sure why anyone would take issue with the data that is presented. If anyone does take issue, then they can post their opinions here at the Message Forum. It's easy to play Monday Morning Quarterback, but I rarely got any e-mail or saw any posts that took issue with the comments made BEFORE the games were played.
(9) Finally, I wish I could offer the gentleman some personal advice. But, I'm not sure I can. I will say that just about every gambler I know (including myself) has suffered hardships at some point, and his situation is not really anything new. Any bookie would understand. You may want to make arrangements and be honest with the bookie, who will probably appreciate that, rather than getting the runaround.
(10) The last point I want to make is about whether or not it's worth it to purse sports gambling. That's an individual decision that each and every person has to make for themselves. In retrospect, there are a lot of things I would do differently, both as a bettor and public handicapper, but I can't change that now. What I can do is try to learn from some fo these things, and move on, and try to get better at it. It may be a Holy Grail concept, but it's worth pursuing, I believe. Whether others agree, is up to them.
-- Nolan Dalla