EPL (MONDAY)
BRIGHTON/WOLVERAMPTON OVER 2.5/3 -125
This one has intrigued me since the line dropped awhile back. I have been watching it, and the price dipped to -150 and is steaming back up. I am going to buy in, the OVER 3 is +105, but I will play the Asian line. Brighton has had a long lay off. They had a few guys banged up over that time so they should be a bit fresher now. They come in 7th in goals scored, and 4th in EPL Home XG at +2.06. On the flip side they are not the most proficient team on the defensive side as is evident by the fact they are giving up well over 1.5 goals per game on average, good for bottom third ranking in XG and XGA. The 'Gulls face a Wolves Team who rounds out the top 10 in scoring metrics, and is also not the best defensively as they are also bottom third in defensive analytics. Wolves have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 6 games , and they have scored 2 or more in 4 of their last 5 contests. They are missing Hwang & Traore to Asia Cup but I think they have enough going forward to pop one. LIke i said they scored in 23 of their last 24 games. Brighton can light up anyone on their day. Here are the recent scorelines in this matchup ; 4-1, 6-0, 3-2, 3-0 all going to Brighton. If Brighton bring their A game they score 3 themselves.