.500 on the week the Hammers let me down the other day with a pitiful performance.
I been digging for some plays this weekend. I don't post or play singles on anything over -150 and much of what I like is beyond that price. I did find this one below.
SATURDAY
AC MILAN/FROSINONE OVER -150
Frosinone for a bottom feeding club has some decent goal scoring metrics. Their xG numbers are mid range, but at home they are 4th best in Serie A at 1.82 goals per game. Frosinone has scored 2 goals or more at home in 4 of the last 5 games albeit to lower ranking competition. On the defensive side they are piss poor. Fro ranks second worst overall in Serie A in both home goals conceded and home XGA. Today ACM comes to town, and I expect them to have plenty of chances. ACM is #2 overall in Serie A goal scoring overall, and on the road. They average over 2 goals per game on their travels. Milan has scored 2 or more in their last 7 road games, and they have also given up 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 7 road games. They have been leaking goals on the road though and I think Frosinone can get one here. Milan is in good form, they are finding the net in bunches. Based on the #'s and form I think we see goals.