I Don't Post Often But When I Do . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
- Thread starter Northern Star
- Start date
Look at post #54
In that post use the example. There were 112 games. The program predicted over. 65 went over.
Of those 65 games that went over the visitor covered 41 times. (I dont know who covered or care who covered in the 47 games that went under). In this case the combination of Visitor and Over would have hit
41/ 112 or 36.6% significantly higher than the mathematical odds of 25%.
If the number of covers by the visitor was say 33 out of 65 I would not post anything. I only post it when one side has a more significant bias.
Northern Star
One game tonight
5* Lakers over 109.5 fh (79 record 1-0 this year 19-5 last 3 year)
4* Lakers Over 215.5 ( 69 record 1-0 this year 16-7 last 3)
Correlated Lakers and Over 43%
As Always Good Luck
Northerns
5* Lakers over 109.5 fh (79 record 1-0 this year 19-5 last 3 year)
4* Lakers Over 215.5 ( 69 record 1-0 this year 16-7 last 3)
Correlated Lakers and Over 43%
As Always Good Luck
Northerns
Not sure what all correlations and calculations mean. Seemed to work early but retooling as of late seems to be in order. Good luck rest of season. :toast:
No friggin way. This is an atrocious laker offense against a team who plays no defense:mj07: I'm done. Gonna put a little on the under as a matter of fact. All these systems can have major flaws I guess. I'm just a degenerate who can't catch a break following!:lol:
Yeah. Been following to. U can blame me for the tailspin. As soon as I get off it will crush. :facepalm:
I thought after another brutal night last night, this over just might hit but no way! I'm going under 106 for half my over bet. Now I'll get dbl fuked. You usually do good Idab! I've tailed you a few times. I just gotta get off NS so he can start winning again. Too brutal. I'm out. Good luck brother!
Don't mean to hijack thread but yeah was thinking same thing about tonight. I usually don't like totals but the system sounded real. For some reason I have just gotten away from my own ways of cappin. Will be going back to the drawing board and remove the curse off NS. Idk why I want to follow someone more than i want to pick my own games. Gl the rest of the way guys. Look out for my sides :SIB:
This is my last reply. It's a real system that did real good then real bad. Looks like under 2nd h might hit but I have sure lost a lot of coin following Northstar lately. He killed it early and when I jump on, uhhh not so much:shrug: I've had enoughxstop
Sorry. Definitely last time here. Under hits. Still took a hit. Hope Northstar gets out of the funk. I'll stick with the old time winners like Hudson, idabdou and Double Two when he's on. Was hoping to share the supposed winnings with the less fortunate but sharing with the book I guess :mj07:
A
A
If you follow someone else 100% for your wagers, you deserve to lose... I mean cap a little yourself.
I hate when cappers follow someone, lose, and then crucify the person they were following... cap the games yourself period. It's a tough deal, but at leas this way, you know you followed your own advice.
I lost tonight on Bucs, but won a little Bucs 2nd half... Winston blows and Keenum is the shizt overall! Rams are rough, horrible pick! Go Bucs!
A
If you follow someone else 100% for your wagers, you deserve to lose... I mean cap a little yourself.
I hate when cappers follow someone, lose, and then crucify the person they were following... cap the games yourself period. It's a tough deal, but at leas this way, you know you followed your own advice.
I lost tonight on Bucs, but won a little Bucs 2nd half... Winston blows and Keenum is the shizt overall! Rams are rough, horrible pick! Go Bucs!
This is an excellent, logical, time-tested system requiring a fair amount of work. It will pay off in the long run and deserves thanks not a the opposite.
Great post. Win or lose, big thanks to all that post tirelessly on here free of charge day after day. We are all big boys and girls, and if we want to follow blindly, or mix it in, or cap by ourselves, it's fully our own personal responsibility. Value the free exchange of ideas in a forum like this.
Point well taken. If I would have followed first posts, would have done great.
I did jump off at half on my own. Just bad luck following when I did. Haven't done well lately. Oh well. When it's going good, everyone happy, share the wealth blah blah. Goes bad, little heat. Good luck
Going to chime in on this with my 2 cents - I believe this to be a huge gambler's fallacy going on....
It has nothing to do with you being bad luck, or there being a jinx, or anything of the sort. The pattern is this - guy gets hot, and makes a few winning posts, tailer notices, waits until he sees how "good" this guy or his "system" is, wants to get in on the easy money, so starts tailing right at about the time the new (or even old) genius comes back to reality, and takes his absurd 70% back down to 50%, hitting about 35% to get back to the mean. During this time, the new tailer blames his own bad luck, jinx, "go figure" mentality, when in reality, what happened was actually the most likely scenario by far.
What exacerbates the entire thing even more, is that there is a Survivorship Bias going on - so basically, new posters come and go, and 90% of them go after a few posts because they know how hard it is to post losers so often, so these people go by the wayside and nobody thinks about it. BUT, the few lucky ones who happen to win in their first few posts, are the geniuses, but if we took 100 monkeys, we'd still get those geniuses - and you'd be no better following the monkey, than the dude who got hot in his first couple of posts.
I won't even go into the posters that emphatically bump all of their winners and good days/posts, while their losers go off into the abyss of the posts that everyone forgets about. We now think these guys are so good because we remember all their winners, and see their winning posts on the next/new day of betting -thus creating an illusion that they are wayyyy better than they actually are.
Northern Star - this is nothing on you, just chiming in on the comments and the theme.
Cheers, all
I have had conversations with people about this before so I'll jump in about this. If someone is a good handicapper he is making bets and betting units depending on how likely he thinks the bet will win based on his system. In the real world, a good handicapper is going to be around 50% but over enough to overcome the vig. If someone wants to tail a handicapper he needs to play every bet with the same unit or else he is just handicapping the handicappers picks.
That's the way I look at it.
Good luck everyone and have a good holiday.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That's the way I look at it.
Good luck everyone and have a good holiday.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,204
- 374
- 83
- 74
Big NBA card today but the program shows almost no plays. It is designed to make a significant number of plays.
Today
5* Golden State Under 209.5 (71%) same as earlier this week. 1-1 on the year now 29-12 last 3 years
5* Chicago Under First Half 100 (71%) 2-0 this year 20-8 last 3 years
4* Chicago Under Game 196.5 (67%) 1-1 this year 19-9 last 3
4* Golden State Under First half 107.5 (63%) 2-0 on the year 26-15 last 3 years
Detroit and under 42%
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Today
5* Golden State Under 209.5 (71%) same as earlier this week. 1-1 on the year now 29-12 last 3 years
5* Chicago Under First Half 100 (71%) 2-0 this year 20-8 last 3 years
4* Chicago Under Game 196.5 (67%) 1-1 this year 19-9 last 3
4* Golden State Under First half 107.5 (63%) 2-0 on the year 26-15 last 3 years
Detroit and under 42%
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
