I Don't Post Often But When I Do . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

[Northern Star]

Well Chicago Under just missed covering last night.....by the slimest of margins......100 points.

Today two plays come up. A little more info and do as you please with the information. The lines are moving worse so the early post.

Oklahoma City Under 209

There are four ways I calculate numbers on each game. 2 have selections on this game under.

Method 1 record

This year 5-5
2014 33-21
2013 31-11
2012 33-19
record 102 -56 very good on its own most are not this good

Method 2
This year 6-7
2014 27-18
2013 32-24
2012 35-17
Record 100-66 once again good on its own.

When just these two call for an under

This year 0-1
2014 8-2
2013 3-1
2012 3-2

Record 14-6

Dog and Under Cover 8 of 20

First half is 13-8 0-1 this year.


The other game is a scenario that produces quite a few plays and I out lined it in a previous post.

Memphis Over 201.5 69-45 is 3 year record.

it is 8-4 this year and dog and over hits 36% of the time.

First 3 year record 67-46 and also 8-4 this year.


One other game is the first half under in Washington.

Has not much of a track record.....just 7 plays in 3 years and none this year. Has won 6 times and 5 out of the seven the home team covers.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[ldabdou]

GL. Tailing on 1st one...If we get that one will be on 2nd..:toast:

 

[Northern Star]

It is not a system.....it is a mathematical program. Each day Vegas runs numbers and posts a line. Each day my program uses the data I enter. It also calculates a line for 3 of the four methods. It then compares my line to the Vegas line. If the difference is considered large enough based on close to 7,000 previous games then it makes a selection. Then if more than one of the two agree I look at what has happened in the past when this has happened. I think if anyone sat at my kitchen table and talked about what would be logical ways to evaluate a game they would think all four of my methods are we'll thought out a logical.

What advantage do I have over vegas? For one they are not trying to predict a score....they are just trying to get even money on each side.

People have an unrealistic expectation of what should be expected. I consider a handicapper that can hit around 55 percent a solid handicapper. If you can get in the 57 to 58 percent range you are a great handicapper. There are very few handicappers that I have ever seen I would consider great. Many post games with lines not available or throw in money lines to make their record better or the do well for a short period of time. The best handicapper I ever saw gave one game on Saturday and on on Sunday in football the fact that he was very selective probably helped make his record so good....was a service by the name of Underdog. I use to say he was just under God the way he picked them. There have been a few others that have written programs and had success and when that happens they have the ability to move the line. Very few can move the line.

The goal of the program is to make a significant number of plays and get in the 57 to 58 percent range. There is one other thing whenthe program for instance shows 70 percent under first half and 67 percent under in the game......logically if I win the first half I also increase the probability of winning the game play too. So if someone plays both they increase the probability of 2-0 or 0-2.

you can use the information however you want but one of the hardest things to do is to try to "time" when to play with or against someone.

On the Internet there are maybe a handful of posters who I see that I consider their opinions very valuable......and everyone of them will have times when they struggle at times but overall I have found that I like their style or something that makes me think they know,what they are doing.

There are way more people that post and have put little or no time into handicapping the game. Or they have spent time but they don't have the ability to analyze data or information to make a good selection. They may go on a win streak but probably not for long.

i think the most beatable sport is nba and totals. No issues with weather, every court is same size, they play a large number of games and for a total in the nba one bad play or mistake won't change the outcome of almost all games.

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

There is one other thing I forgot to mention is that lines are fluid. One of the difficult parts of entering data in and grading the program is what line to use. I think lines move the most when first posted and then closer to game time. I try to get a line midday that is not changing much. That is the line I enter and grade all my systems with. Unfortunately I have a life and I am not always available midday. Happened last Saturday and I lost a game and most people played and won the game because of the favorable line movement.

My program might generate a total of say 195. The line is 200.5. My indicator might be looking for a difference of more than 5. In this case it is a play. Now if the line drops to 200....it is no longer a play. Other indicators may continue to have it a play but this one would not. But the combination of plays and that dynamics changes because the one play dropped out.

In the program if I play a game the line I played it at is used to grade the play because I feel I made a decision based on the information that I had at the time. Yesterday Indiana Over is a case in point. I played it and it is graded in the program as a lose. Later in the day....the normal time i try to get lines....the line had moved to make it not a play. Also on the Chicago game the line had moved and it became a play in that exact same category. So next time that category comes up it will be 9-5 on the year.

More a factor of my personal life yesterday than the program.

Based on the morning line I have right now and it could change because of line movement

Denver Under

Category 1 This Year 8-8
2014 24-15
2013 19-22
2012 19-20
Total 70-65

Category 2 this year 6-5
2014 22-11
2013 21-20
2012 20-17
Total 69-53

Category 3 this year 7-6
2014 15-10
2013 23-23
2012 16-13
Total 61-52

All 3 have the under
This year 1-3
2014 6-3
2013 6-3
2012 5-2
Total 18-11 62%

Home team and under 12 of 29 41%

First Half Under
This Year 3-1
2014 6-3
2013 7-2
2012 3-4
Total 20-9 68%

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[ldabdou]

So the play is Denver under Game and 1st Half under?

 

[Northern Star]

Denver game moved down 4 points and was not a play. A few big moves today mostly on the overs and my program was pointing over on almost all games but one.

With current lines the best games are

Houston Over in category that shows up alot and is 9-5 on the year and 60% last 3 years, similar numbers first half and both point toward Char covering with the over. (New York was in this until the line moved up 2 points)

San antonio over 1-1 on the year 61% last 3 (first half is opposite 60% under....weird...must mean high scoring second half).

Clippers Under falls into the category Denver did before the line movement yesterday. So first half under looks good.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

I have said before the computer program does not know emotion. Tonight is the last night before the Christmas so players and teams may no follow normal patterns. The plays come up decent though so here they are.

Orlando Under First half 4-1 this year, 21-9 last 3 years.
Orlando Under game is 3-2 this year and 19-11 last 3 years. This is the same category as Clippers two nights ago. Both won and it also points to home dog with 11 of the 30 games being dog and under.

Charlotte Over is the work horse category discussed before hits 60% gives alot of plays is 9-6 on the year and the dog hits a high %. First half slightly worse and 8-7 on the year.

Atlanta Under no plays this year 7-1 over three years. Home team and under is 6-2 so if it goes under the home team is the winner. First half is 4-2-1. Before the line moved and one of the categories went from a play to no play the first half was in a 20-9 selection so i think the first half is still good just for completeness the game was 19-10 so it had more plays and was still a solid selection.

Lakers Under first half no plays this year 14-6 three years. Game slightly worse at 13-6...8 of those 13 the favorite covered.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

Memphis over 22-5. Also dog has covered 14 of those 22

Denver under 15-7

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

Like that the holidays are over and teams get back into a routine. More data should help too.

I really liked Memphis over yesterday but I never want to over brag a pick.

Today

All 4 pick Golden State Under 2-2 on the year and 26-13 last 3 years away team covers 17 of those.

2 pick Charlotte Under 202.5 same as Denver Under Yesterday so now 15-8... just 1-3 this year... first half 14-10 dog covered 9 of those 14.

3 Washington Over 206. That is the workhorse category 9-7 this year 70-48 last 3 dog covers 41 of the 70......first half real similar numbers but slightly worse.

2 Miami over 1-1 this year and 22-16 last 3 years so it is 58%...last 7 years 65%!!. Last year 1-5 so the last 8 picks just 2-6. Away team covered 12 of the 22.


Golden State looks to be the best play.


As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

Big card today and almost nothing comes up. Program designed to pick totals but a side note of entering data is to see if any indication comes on the sides. The other day the totals went 1-3 but the indicator on the sides went 3-1.

Today there are only 2 games which look decent.

Chicago over is the workhorse total play. Missed the last few and is 9-8 on the year and 70-49 last 3 years. It has a definite bias towards the dog Indiana with 41 of 119 games being dog and over. First half now 10-7 on the year, 69-49 and 36-4/119 visitor and over.

Other game is Charlotte over first half... 3-4 this year, 28-17 last 3 years 16 of the 45 have been home team and over.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

No one will be in the NBA thread today with it being a big college football day.

Three picks

Houston Over and New Orleans Over are both in the workhorse category. It won last night with Chicago over and one of the advantages of playing an over with a short line is the increased chance of overtime.

Record now 10-8 this year, 71-49 last 3 years and dog and over 42/119 so definite bias to the dog (Indiana covered yesterday). First half similar 10-8 this year, 69-50 3 years and 36-4/119 dog and over.

The other play is Utah Over.

3-1 this year, 21-10 last 3 years. First half is 3-1 and 19-12 (dog covered 11 of the 19 in the first half)

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

One play today

Toronto Under.....2-1 this year and 26-12 last 3 years.

Chicago Over was a play most of the day but when I put in the latest lines it dropped out. It also had a very strong bias on the New York.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Northern Star]

Every game went under yesterday except the one I posted....and then it loses by 1/2 point.

On to today.

2 Plays and both are in the same category.

Golden State Under and Clippers Under

So far this year it has not been good.. just 1-4....15-9 last 3 years and a very solid 65% the last 7 years. Today they start moving towards a winning record for the year.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[peteyboy]

Every game went under yesterday except the one I posted....and then it loses by 1/2 point.

On to today.

2 Plays and both are in the same category.

Golden State Under and Clippers Under

So far this year it has not been good.. just 1-4....15-9 last 3 years and a very solid 65% the last 7 years. Today they start moving towards a winning record for the year.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

Yeah and they fouled down 8 with 14 secs left! Lucky to get that close though. Thanks for posting!

 

[Northern Star]

I am a karma believer. In my gambling career there are times when I can almost feel the grim reaper breathing down my neck....I say this in all seriousness....it is almost like a 6th sense (does anyone else ever have this feeling?).....I know he is there but I continue to play...sports....blackjack.....you name it..and it doesn't matter what I do but it doesn't win. It is almost like he is laughing at me because he knows it will lose and I make the mistake of butting heads with him.

Lately I have been having this feeling. Yesterday reminded me he is sitting behind me right now and anything I do will lose. I had Oregon on the moneyline in a parlay up 31-0 at half.....we know how that story ended. Then Golden State at home up 24 points in the first quarter to one of the worse NBA teams. Somehow the 15 point underdog comes back and ties the game and sends it to overtime....only to lose the under.

Hey grim reaper...I know you are there....go breath down someone else neck!!

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[Franchise_Davis]

I am a karma believer. In my gambling career there are times when I can almost feel the grim reaper breathing down my neck....I say this in all seriousness....it is almost like a 6th sense (does anyone else ever have this feeling?).....I know he is there but I continue to play...sports....blackjack.....you name it..and it doesn't matter what I do but it doesn't win. It is almost like he is laughing at me because he knows it will lose and I make the mistake of butting heads with him.

Lately I have been having this feeling. Yesterday reminded me he is sitting behind me right now and anything I do will lose. I had Oregon on the moneyline in a parlay up 31-0 at half.....we know how that story ended. Then Golden State at home up 24 points in the first quarter to one of the worse NBA teams. Somehow the 15 point underdog comes back and ties the game and sends it to overtime....only to lose the under.

Hey grim reaper...I know you are there....go breath down someone else neck!!

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

Felt the same way, I had the Bulls under earlier this week. All of that Jimmy Butler crap and they get to OT and lose the over.

GS under last night, blow a huge lead, give up a game tying bucket. OT and lose