I LOVE OVERS VOL 2. 2021-2022 ...
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
LOL I had a feeling Verona was going to do it , I even said to myself its been awhile since I have been blessed with a 90 minute winner lol , that was a fun one. :toast:
I was going to say helllllll no, because I only play Overs, and this one looks to be an Under. I see they already found the net 10 minutes in ? lol , what did you play on this one haha
Yes Yes damn I have been slammed this morning.
Here is where I am at with today's action. I don't love the card to be honest, and I am treading carefully here. For now the best Over proposition for me is the Young Boys / Atalanta OVER. Atalanta is hot right now they have scored 2 or more goals in 8 of the last 9 games. They will be feeling good after finding the net 5 times against Spezia. Young Boys have given up 2 goals or more in 4 of the last 5 games, so to me this sets up nicely. At home I think Young Boys can find the net. I need the Over 2.5 to close a 2 gamer from the weekend, and I have another 2 gamer tied with Atalanta/Young Boys Over 2.5 + Ajax/Besiktas Over 2.5 for tomorrow, this pays about +140.
Tomorrow I like that Sporting/BVB Over 2.5 :0074
So far so good with the Euro action. The Atalanta O2.5 closed a ticket , and as noted above I paired that same play with today's Ajax/Besiktas Over 2.5. The line has really steamed on that play. I remember the 1st leg Ajax played and won 2 -0, they should have scored atleast 5 goals that game. I like how I have set this up for today.
SPORTING/BVB OVER 2.5 -125
These 2 teams bit me when they played in Dortmund, but I am going back to the well. Sporting has scored a goal in 33 of their last 34 games. The match vs Dortmund where they got shut out was the worst result for them since last February. At home , and the way BVB has played defensively, I don't see them getting shut out again. Since the clean sheet vs Dortmund they have scored 2 goals or more in 7 of the last 9 games. BVB on the other hand have scored in 9 of their last 10 games, and 7 of the last 9 went over. I will take my chances here:0074
SPORTING/BVB OVER 2.5 -125
These 2 teams bit me when they played in Dortmund, but I am going back to the well. Sporting has scored a goal in 33 of their last 34 games. The match vs Dortmund where they got shut out was the worst result for them since last February. At home , and the way BVB has played defensively, I don't see them getting shut out again. Since the clean sheet vs Dortmund they have scored 2 goals or more in 7 of the last 9 games. BVB on the other hand have scored in 9 of their last 10 games, and 7 of the last 9 went over. I will take my chances here:0074
There are two games I like alot tomorrow, but I don't want to lay the juice. As of now the prices are too rich for me. I've had alot of success as of late using more 2 gamers on games where the O2.5 line is in the -175 - 225 range.
LEVERKUSEN/CELTIC O2.5 & FERENCVAROS/BETIS O2.5 pays +140. For now that is what I am going to use . The last few days have been nice, I want to ensure I am rolling profits into the weekend and don't want to press anything.
The PSV game has me interested as well, but I don't know what I want to do with that one right now.
LEVERKUSEN/CELTIC O2.5 & FERENCVAROS/BETIS O2.5 pays +140. For now that is what I am going to use . The last few days have been nice, I want to ensure I am rolling profits into the weekend and don't want to press anything.
The PSV game has me interested as well, but I don't know what I want to do with that one right now.
To all my American Madjackers, and followers of my thread I want to wish you all a HAPPY THANKSGIVING. I am Canadian, but this day holds a special place in my heart lol. For 13 years I worked for a company that sold exclusively to the US. So every Thanksgiving Thursday we would do fuck all, put the Football game on in the big projection screen, order Pizza, and bolt out early to hit the bar for some drinks , ahhhhh the good 'ol days. Now I sell Globally from home, and can watch the games from the confines of my couch, but I love US Thanksgiving LOL.
Cheers to you all, wishing you the best. Now let's make some money :toast:
Cheers to you all, wishing you the best. Now let's make some money :toast:
Jeez these lines got pumped over night, I went to see if I could get these in on a single, and to top up the 2 gamer but these are way out of my reach. I was showing both games at -250 not too long ago :0corn
I have this feeling that PSV is going to light up this Austrian team. I watched the 1st leg, and on the road PSV smoked these guys 4-1. The Dutch squad got shutout their last Europa game vs Sociedad, and followed it up with 6 goals in their last 2 games. I think they get right here and find the net in bunches. I am not sure if SG will score a goal on the road , and don't want to play the total of 3 since there very well may be only 1 contributor as far as scoring is concerned. I have been looking for a nice dance partner for this one, so here is another 2 gamer.
PSV/SG OVER 2.5 + SASSUOLO/ACM OVER 2.5 (Sunday match) = +140
I have this feeling that PSV is going to light up this Austrian team. I watched the 1st leg, and on the road PSV smoked these guys 4-1. The Dutch squad got shutout their last Europa game vs Sociedad, and followed it up with 6 goals in their last 2 games. I think they get right here and find the net in bunches. I am not sure if SG will score a goal on the road , and don't want to play the total of 3 since there very well may be only 1 contributor as far as scoring is concerned. I have been looking for a nice dance partner for this one, so here is another 2 gamer.
PSV/SG OVER 2.5 + SASSUOLO/ACM OVER 2.5 (Sunday match) = +140
Brutal I thought this was gonna come through, had 40 min to find the last goal , and they couldn't do it.:0002
Got a little too cute with the parlays yesterday, in the end fell narrowly short on 2 of the matches. Now it is time to get back to business. I see some value for tomorrow.
SERIE A
VERONA/SAMP OVER 2.5 -110
I really like this Verona team, Simeone is fun to watch, and they play fast, and attacking football. Verona is punching above their weight, and rank 3rd in the league in goals scored per game sitting up there with the notable big boys of the Serie A. Verona has found the net in 10 straight, they are running hot right now. Sampdoria is mid range , but they still get over 1 GPG themselves, and have scored in 7 of their last 8 games. Neither of these teams are show stoppers on Defense, Samp is actually bottom 5 of the Serie A, and Verona is not far behind. Combined they give up over 3.5 GPG. Samp ranks 2nd in the league in xGA at home , and 5th over all xGA (expected goals against) which is quite telling, it means they are giving up lots of chances. These teams have played each other 3 times in the last 2 years, and all of them went Over; 3-1, 2-1, 2-1 score lines. The last 5 Sampdoria games at home all had 3 goals or more scored, and Verona has gone over in 3 of their last 5 on the road. I like how it shapes up , and the price is right for me, I am buying.
EMPOLI/FIOENTINA OVER 2.5 - 125
FIO has been picking it up lately they come into this off a 4-3 home win against Milan. They have now scored 3 goals or more in 3 of their last 5 games and are 8th in the league in scoring. Empoli is not far behind in rounding out the top 10, and combined these squads avg about 3 per game. On the defensive side Empoli is near the bottom 5 in goals against, they let in nearly 2 per game. They are #1 in xGA at home, no other team is expected to concede more at home than Empoli. To me Empoli passes the eye test. They can look quite decent in attack at times, and they lack the defensive consistency to keep the ball out of their own net. As a result, many of their games are quite entertaining, and they generally play with an up tempo. I am going Over on this one.
I have a few others, but I am running out of time, back later.
SERIE A
VERONA/SAMP OVER 2.5 -110
I really like this Verona team, Simeone is fun to watch, and they play fast, and attacking football. Verona is punching above their weight, and rank 3rd in the league in goals scored per game sitting up there with the notable big boys of the Serie A. Verona has found the net in 10 straight, they are running hot right now. Sampdoria is mid range , but they still get over 1 GPG themselves, and have scored in 7 of their last 8 games. Neither of these teams are show stoppers on Defense, Samp is actually bottom 5 of the Serie A, and Verona is not far behind. Combined they give up over 3.5 GPG. Samp ranks 2nd in the league in xGA at home , and 5th over all xGA (expected goals against) which is quite telling, it means they are giving up lots of chances. These teams have played each other 3 times in the last 2 years, and all of them went Over; 3-1, 2-1, 2-1 score lines. The last 5 Sampdoria games at home all had 3 goals or more scored, and Verona has gone over in 3 of their last 5 on the road. I like how it shapes up , and the price is right for me, I am buying.
EMPOLI/FIOENTINA OVER 2.5 - 125
FIO has been picking it up lately they come into this off a 4-3 home win against Milan. They have now scored 3 goals or more in 3 of their last 5 games and are 8th in the league in scoring. Empoli is not far behind in rounding out the top 10, and combined these squads avg about 3 per game. On the defensive side Empoli is near the bottom 5 in goals against, they let in nearly 2 per game. They are #1 in xGA at home, no other team is expected to concede more at home than Empoli. To me Empoli passes the eye test. They can look quite decent in attack at times, and they lack the defensive consistency to keep the ball out of their own net. As a result, many of their games are quite entertaining, and they generally play with an up tempo. I am going Over on this one.
I have a few others, but I am running out of time, back later.
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EPL
CRYSTAL PALACE/VILLA OVER 2, 2 1/2 -115
CP has quietly moved up to 6th in the EPL in scoring with over 1.5 goals per game. At home they have scored in their last 5 games , and I am confident in them finding the net in this one. Villa has given up a goal in 5 of their last 6 matches, and they are around the lower 5 in the league in xGA on the road, so they are giving up chances away from home. I see both teams around the net in this one. The last 10 CP games have had at least 2 goals scored, so I am pretty confident that at worst I should get half my wager back. To me this looks like a game where both teams are going to feel as though they can get 3 points. As such i am hoping for an entertaining game with chances.
NEWCASTLE/ARSENAL OVER 2.5/3 - 125
Newcastle has been a leaky faucet as far as goals are concerned. They are winless on the year, and have given up a goal in all 12 matches this year. They have given up 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 games. Overall the Magpies are tied for dead last in Goals Against Per game , giving up over 2 per contest. It is no surprise that they obviously rank near dead last in xGA. I think Arsenal is going to eat here. Overall Arsenal offensive #'s aren't anything to write home about, but they are considerably better at home. The telling stat for me is that Arsenal is top 5 in the EPL in xG at home. Given this indicator and Newcastle's consistency in shipping goals I think Arsenal should get 2-3 here. This is the 730am early bird, hopefully we bring it home to start the day.
CRYSTAL PALACE/VILLA OVER 2, 2 1/2 -115
CP has quietly moved up to 6th in the EPL in scoring with over 1.5 goals per game. At home they have scored in their last 5 games , and I am confident in them finding the net in this one. Villa has given up a goal in 5 of their last 6 matches, and they are around the lower 5 in the league in xGA on the road, so they are giving up chances away from home. I see both teams around the net in this one. The last 10 CP games have had at least 2 goals scored, so I am pretty confident that at worst I should get half my wager back. To me this looks like a game where both teams are going to feel as though they can get 3 points. As such i am hoping for an entertaining game with chances.
NEWCASTLE/ARSENAL OVER 2.5/3 - 125
Newcastle has been a leaky faucet as far as goals are concerned. They are winless on the year, and have given up a goal in all 12 matches this year. They have given up 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 games. Overall the Magpies are tied for dead last in Goals Against Per game , giving up over 2 per contest. It is no surprise that they obviously rank near dead last in xGA. I think Arsenal is going to eat here. Overall Arsenal offensive #'s aren't anything to write home about, but they are considerably better at home. The telling stat for me is that Arsenal is top 5 in the EPL in xG at home. Given this indicator and Newcastle's consistency in shipping goals I think Arsenal should get 2-3 here. This is the 730am early bird, hopefully we bring it home to start the day.
Ok I'm ready for Serie A, this game fucken sucks, snooze fest. Arsenal looks like the walking dead so uninspiring ...next.
