I was expecting much more from ATA in this one, I thought this was going to go right on queue after they scored in the first 15. There was an unfortunate narrow offside goal that got pulled back, and I saw a hit post in this one as well, in the end it fell a goal short. That makes it 2 loses this week in League Cups, ughhh.
I LOVE OVERS VOL 2. 2021-2022 ...
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
I was expecting much more from ATA in this one, I thought this was going to go right on queue after they scored in the first 15. There was an unfortunate narrow offside goal that got pulled back, and I saw a hit post in this one as well, in the end it fell a goal short. That makes it 2 loses this week in League Cups, ughhh.
Ok, we got a bunch going on the next few days. I will add to these plays, and if the line swings for me in certain directions I will add more. I am going to consolidate all the plays listed above into this post, I added a few in here as well.
EFL CUP
LIVERPOOL/ARSENAL OVER 2.5/3 -105
SERIE A
SASSUOLO/VERONA OVER 3 +105
INTER/ATALANTA OVER 3 +100
GERMANY
DORTMUND/FREIBURG OVER 3 -120
LEVERKUSEN/GLADBACK OVER 3 - 120
UNION/HOFFEINHAM OVER 2.5 -138
EFL CUP
LIVERPOOL/ARSENAL OVER 2.5/3 -105
SERIE A
SASSUOLO/VERONA OVER 3 +105
INTER/ATALANTA OVER 3 +100
GERMANY
DORTMUND/FREIBURG OVER 3 -120
LEVERKUSEN/GLADBACK OVER 3 - 120
UNION/HOFFEINHAM OVER 2.5 -138
response
response
with that red card...you mention that totally screws the Over..why ?
im used to hockey i guess , if a player is down,,its like a poerfly,,attack
not sure what the strategy is when a red card and a player is removed
thanks
response
with that red card...you mention that totally screws the Over..why ?
im used to hockey i guess , if a player is down,,its like a poerfly,,attack
not sure what the strategy is when a red card and a player is removed
thanks
Because usually the team with the red card goes into a shell and plays defense only. One less attacking team. Also, if the 11man team scores they often ease up knowing it's unlikely the red carded team will score. Not always the case but just my observations. I suspect there are other reasons as well. I will leave that to better minds than mine
Yes exactly this was a League Cup Semi , Arsenals only chance of getting something from that game was to park the bus and play defensive, I honestly didn't watch past the 1st half, knew it was a goner.
A red card later in a match could help an OVER , especially if you have a solid offensive club playing against a tired, shitty defensive team. But if a red comes quick when I need more than a goal it typically spells doom.
This one sets up very nicely , the line is steaming now to -120, the +105 was a steal. Games featuring Sassuolo have been a cash cow ,they have had 3 goals or more scored in 14 of the last 15 games! They come into this one after finding the net 5 times vs Empoli. Sassuolo has some very notable players in attack ,and are always a threat to score multiple goals. They are 7th in the serie A in scoring, and their xG at home is 5th best in the league. This team is around the net often. I think they can find atleast 2 here. On the other side, Verona can be a fun team to watch. They play aggressively and look to press, Simeone up top is a sniper. Verona averages well over 1.5 goals per, they are top 10 in goals scored and xG overall. This should be a fun game to watch if you can stream it. I see goals here , neither team is known for their staunch defending , and they both like to run at their opposition. To me this match sets up as a higher scoring affair.
GLADBACH/LEVERKUSEN OVER 3
Played this at -120, and I am adding at +105, line move itself will NEVER shake me out of play, it just offers a better buying opportunity. As far as goal scoring is concerned this pits the #3 ranked Bayer Leverkusen at 2.33 gpg against the #11 ranked goals scoring team in Gladbach at 1.33 gpg. Leverkusen does a lot of damage on their road, they are averaging over 2 goals per game on their travels, and Gladbach scoring ticks up at home, and they are finding the net nearly 2 times per outing in their own park. A key metric for me is xG (expected goals), it takes into account the high quality scoring chances teams are getting on average. These teams are ranked 5th and 8th in xG so there should be chances. The same goes for xGA which is measuring how many quality scoring chances these teams are giving up on the defensive side of things, and they both rank in the bottom 10, in fact Leverkusen is 5th worst in the entire league in XGA Overall, and at home. Both teams have gone over in 7 of their last 8 games. The recent history shows a few duds, but for the most part there are some high scoring contests; 4-0, 1-0, 4-3, 3-1, 2-1, 1-0, 5-0. Given the recent form I see tremendous value in getting this total at + money.
Played this at -120, and I am adding at +105, line move itself will NEVER shake me out of play, it just offers a better buying opportunity. As far as goal scoring is concerned this pits the #3 ranked Bayer Leverkusen at 2.33 gpg against the #11 ranked goals scoring team in Gladbach at 1.33 gpg. Leverkusen does a lot of damage on their road, they are averaging over 2 goals per game on their travels, and Gladbach scoring ticks up at home, and they are finding the net nearly 2 times per outing in their own park. A key metric for me is xG (expected goals), it takes into account the high quality scoring chances teams are getting on average. These teams are ranked 5th and 8th in xG so there should be chances. The same goes for xGA which is measuring how many quality scoring chances these teams are giving up on the defensive side of things, and they both rank in the bottom 10, in fact Leverkusen is 5th worst in the entire league in XGA Overall, and at home. Both teams have gone over in 7 of their last 8 games. The recent history shows a few duds, but for the most part there are some high scoring contests; 4-0, 1-0, 4-3, 3-1, 2-1, 1-0, 5-0. Given the recent form I see tremendous value in getting this total at + money.
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UNION/HOFF OVER 2.5
Played at -138, and added at -110. This is another line move that I am not in agreement with. In this matchup we get Hoffenheim the #4 scoring team in the league at 2.11 gpg squaring off against Union Berlin who rounds out the top 10 in goals scored with 1.33 goals per game. Hoffenheim has scored 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 12 games, and rolls into this one off a 3 goal outing against Ausburg. They have high xG away #'s as well , so they are getting their chances when they travel. On the flip side, Hoffeheim is 7th worst in the League in road XGA so I expect Union to get some chances. Union generally plays better at home, they got blanked the last time out , but have scored in 6 of their last 7 in Berlin, and I think they can help our cause. I am looking at a 2-1, 2-2 matchup, hoping for Hoffenheim to pull some weight in this one, and do the heavy lifting. If Union can contribute a few we should be good. :0074
Played at -138, and added at -110. This is another line move that I am not in agreement with. In this matchup we get Hoffenheim the #4 scoring team in the league at 2.11 gpg squaring off against Union Berlin who rounds out the top 10 in goals scored with 1.33 goals per game. Hoffenheim has scored 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 12 games, and rolls into this one off a 3 goal outing against Ausburg. They have high xG away #'s as well , so they are getting their chances when they travel. On the flip side, Hoffeheim is 7th worst in the League in road XGA so I expect Union to get some chances. Union generally plays better at home, they got blanked the last time out , but have scored in 6 of their last 7 in Berlin, and I think they can help our cause. I am looking at a 2-1, 2-2 matchup, hoping for Hoffenheim to pull some weight in this one, and do the heavy lifting. If Union can contribute a few we should be good. :0074
EPL
WOLVERAMPTON/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 2 -120
I have looked at this one all morning , not as much conviction as the others but I'm taking a try. This is too cheap at over 2 at -120 , considering that Southampton has scored 7 times their last 2 matches (including FA Cup) and have scored 2 or more goals in 4 of 5. I think there atleast 2 goals loading here , both teams will feel they can get something from it.
WOLVERAMPTON/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 2 -120
I have looked at this one all morning , not as much conviction as the others but I'm taking a try. This is too cheap at over 2 at -120 , considering that Southampton has scored 7 times their last 2 matches (including FA Cup) and have scored 2 or more goals in 4 of 5. I think there atleast 2 goals loading here , both teams will feel they can get something from it.
JAMES
WARD-PROWSE
:firing::firing::firing::firing::firing::firing::firing:
you guys have to check that freekick to cash this one, oh my.
oh boy this is shaping up to be a nice day, just need to take down this Leverkusen/Gladbach matchopcorn2
2 missed penalties. Are you fucking kidding?:facepalm:
I'm not gonna get too pissed as it was 0-0 at half and we got a push. I topped up at half time with the O1.5. With that said I have no clue how this didnt go over. Moving in the right direction though, outside of those League Cup losses the wins have been adding up.
I made the same halftime bet and I agree but 2 missed penalties is really bed luck
To think this line was at 02.5 -125 before kickoff LMAO. Beautiful weekend wow, and I see some brave souls have been hammering the under in Inter/Atalanta
opcorn2 