Hi Crazy thanks Good luck, I feel pretty locked in right now, let's see how today goes.:toast:
I LOVE OVERS VOL 2. 2021-2022 ...
- Thread starter Crookity
- Start date
Hi Crazy thanks Good luck, I feel pretty locked in right now, let's see how today goes.:toast:
Winner winner chicken dinner and before halftime!!! Thank you for your hard work and willingness to share. You, Bason, and PGH Kid rock!
Thanks boys I came out of a 30 minute conference call and we almost had them both in the bag by the time I was done lol . I am feeling very locked in, looking forward to the weekend slate.
Really great, I should have mentioned the Double-Decker ?W? cheers again! Stay on this heater my friend. i wish your Maple Leafs made things a bit easier than last 5 minutes of 3P!!! That said, they deliver the cash for sure.
Thanks Bason we have aligned on quite a few Plays the last few weeks, keep it up. I'm guessing that 2 gamer paid a cool 4.5-1 or close to it, good stuff!
This weekends card looks promising if you ask me!
EVERTON/LEEDS OVER 3 +105 :0074
I got this one in already , play it how you wish , I put some on 2.5 and the 3, this game ticks many boxes. The 2.5 line already caught steam, so I'll post using the 3. Feeling under the weather , but will try to break this one down before Saturdy.
EVERTON/LEEDS OVER 3 +105
We have hit the last 2 Everton Overs, and I am riding the train. This game pits 2 poor defensive clubs against each other with Leeds coming in 3rd worst in the EPL giving up about 2 goals per game, and Everton which is 6th worst in the EPL giving up 1.81 goals per game. Leeds is even worse on the road, they are dead last in the EPL in terms of goals conceded when they travel. They come into this game after letting in 3 vs Villa, and don't have much time to work on things, as they now travel to face Everton. I like the moves Everton made at the window, and expect Lampard to rotate in some of the new faces. Leeds will give up chances, and I think Everton at home will have some pep in their step, and should find opportunities to score. Everton rarely keep a clean sheet, they have let in a goal in 12 straight games. Leeds always is a team that plays press, and attack minded football. They create plenty of chances on the attack, and give up plenty at the back which is a good recipe for Overs. They rank near the top in XG as well as XGA. I am banking on us getting enough chances, and hopefully the net bulges in bunches.
CP/BRENTFORD OVER 2 - 138
Laying some juice here, the Asian line is nearly +110 which is pretty attractive so take your pick if your gonna play this one. Brentford is 7th worst in EPL in goals conceded, and they have had their net breached in 12 straight contests. The Bees have given up 2 or more goals in 6 straight games, and in 4 of those games they gave up 3 or more goals! They are in piss poor form, but at home they will come into this game feeling like they can get something from this match. I think Brentford will get some chances, as CP is bottom 10 in the EPL in goals conceded when they travel, giving up an average of 1.82 goals per game. Considering Brentford gives up nearly 1.5 goals per game at home, and CP gives up nearly 2 goals per game on the road I see value in the long hanging total. Viera has CP playing up tempo, attack minded football, and they will surely be gunning for all 3 points here after coming away against Norwich with only a draw. It doesn't take much with the 2 total, so I am rolling the dice here.
MAN UNITED/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 3 +105
United such a frustrating team bet on as it is hard to gauge what you are going to get from these guys. They are so loaded with offensive talent, but underdeliver ALOT. Nonetheless, I am going with my gut that we see goals here. Man United is 6th best scoring team in the EPL, and 5th best in xG so they are getting their chances. I think Southampton might be just the team United needs to get their goal scoring mojo back. The Saints are 4th worst in the league in goals conceded on the road, giving up over 2 goals per game. They have given up a goal in 14 straight games, and I don't see that coming to an end tomorrow morning. I like this Saints team, they are generally a good recipe for Overs as they can put the ball in the net, and they give up their fare share of chances. The Saints have had at least 3 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 contests, and they have had 3 or more in 11 of the last 14. Given Man U solid goal scoring metrics, and highly ranked xG home #'s, coupled with the Saints deficiencies on the road I see chances here. If the line wants to come back down i will grab some 2.5. Right now the 2.5 is at -150 and that is too rich for me, so I will start my position at the price listed above and see where the wind blows overnight.
Good luck lets keep it moving :0074
We have hit the last 2 Everton Overs, and I am riding the train. This game pits 2 poor defensive clubs against each other with Leeds coming in 3rd worst in the EPL giving up about 2 goals per game, and Everton which is 6th worst in the EPL giving up 1.81 goals per game. Leeds is even worse on the road, they are dead last in the EPL in terms of goals conceded when they travel. They come into this game after letting in 3 vs Villa, and don't have much time to work on things, as they now travel to face Everton. I like the moves Everton made at the window, and expect Lampard to rotate in some of the new faces. Leeds will give up chances, and I think Everton at home will have some pep in their step, and should find opportunities to score. Everton rarely keep a clean sheet, they have let in a goal in 12 straight games. Leeds always is a team that plays press, and attack minded football. They create plenty of chances on the attack, and give up plenty at the back which is a good recipe for Overs. They rank near the top in XG as well as XGA. I am banking on us getting enough chances, and hopefully the net bulges in bunches.
CP/BRENTFORD OVER 2 - 138
Laying some juice here, the Asian line is nearly +110 which is pretty attractive so take your pick if your gonna play this one. Brentford is 7th worst in EPL in goals conceded, and they have had their net breached in 12 straight contests. The Bees have given up 2 or more goals in 6 straight games, and in 4 of those games they gave up 3 or more goals! They are in piss poor form, but at home they will come into this game feeling like they can get something from this match. I think Brentford will get some chances, as CP is bottom 10 in the EPL in goals conceded when they travel, giving up an average of 1.82 goals per game. Considering Brentford gives up nearly 1.5 goals per game at home, and CP gives up nearly 2 goals per game on the road I see value in the long hanging total. Viera has CP playing up tempo, attack minded football, and they will surely be gunning for all 3 points here after coming away against Norwich with only a draw. It doesn't take much with the 2 total, so I am rolling the dice here.
MAN UNITED/SOUTHAMPTON OVER 3 +105
United such a frustrating team bet on as it is hard to gauge what you are going to get from these guys. They are so loaded with offensive talent, but underdeliver ALOT. Nonetheless, I am going with my gut that we see goals here. Man United is 6th best scoring team in the EPL, and 5th best in xG so they are getting their chances. I think Southampton might be just the team United needs to get their goal scoring mojo back. The Saints are 4th worst in the league in goals conceded on the road, giving up over 2 goals per game. They have given up a goal in 14 straight games, and I don't see that coming to an end tomorrow morning. I like this Saints team, they are generally a good recipe for Overs as they can put the ball in the net, and they give up their fare share of chances. The Saints have had at least 3 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 contests, and they have had 3 or more in 11 of the last 14. Given Man U solid goal scoring metrics, and highly ranked xG home #'s, coupled with the Saints deficiencies on the road I see chances here. If the line wants to come back down i will grab some 2.5. Right now the 2.5 is at -150 and that is too rich for me, so I will start my position at the price listed above and see where the wind blows overnight.
Good luck lets keep it moving :0074
Tough loss. Essentially had entire second half to get 1. Had goal pulled back for off sides at end of first half.:facepalm:
Wouldn't play it any other way, what can you do, I can't lace them up lol there were more than enough quality chances to bring it home.
ADDING
LEVERKUSEN/STUTTGART OVER 3 -120
This has come back into my buying window this morning, so I am jumping in.
Not my finest day gents , I did have some of that Everton game at 2.5 as originally noted, but in the end finished red, 1 win 2 loses and a push on the posted totals. Let's make it Redemption Sunday.
I got these in and will add from here. There are plenty on my radar I just wanna see how the lines move.
EPL
VILLA/NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 -125
WHU/LEICESTER OVER 2.5/3 -115
BUNDESLIGA
UNION BERLIN/DORTMUND OVER 3 +110
*if the 2.5 line drops over night and comes into my strike zone I will be adding *
There are a few more to run through back later.
I got these in and will add from here. There are plenty on my radar I just wanna see how the lines move.
EPL
VILLA/NEWCASTLE OVER 2.5 -125
WHU/LEICESTER OVER 2.5/3 -115
BUNDESLIGA
UNION BERLIN/DORTMUND OVER 3 +110
*if the 2.5 line drops over night and comes into my strike zone I will be adding *
There are a few more to run through back later.
Damn tough sledding over here , sorry guys I had high hopes for this weekend. AcM scores in first 10 min than nada the rest of the way :scared ..gotta sweep the remaining games just to break even:facepalm: I will say UNION/BVB and the VILLA/NEWCASTLE are the ones I liked the most. I see the Dortmund total at 2.5 -125 picked up more of that, I think that's a really really good price on this match. I'll be back next week, hopefully can salvage something today.
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The going gets tougher in the CL as we move deeper into the tourny. The 2nd leg should present a clearer picture for me. I am not crazy about anything today , but the line has come down here and I will play this one. I am closely watching this PSG/Madrid line as well. The total at 2.5 is just a bit too rich for me right now, but let's see where the chips fall closer to kick off.
UCL
MAN CITY/SPORTING OVER 2.5 - 138
UCL
MAN CITY/SPORTING OVER 2.5 - 138
LIVERPOOL/INTER OVER 2.5 - 125
The Over %'s of Inter in Serie A vs Over %'s hitting in Europe are night and day. The club goes over 2.5 over 60% of the time in Serie A, and only around 35% of the time in Europe. They typically pack up the midfield, and play a more conservative, tactical defensive minded game when battling in Europe. With that said, I am going with the gut that we can squeak out 3 goals here. This line got smoked down to -110, but has started to recover again.
tomorrow's Europa card looks interesting indeed, I will be back with that later.
The Over %'s of Inter in Serie A vs Over %'s hitting in Europe are night and day. The club goes over 2.5 over 60% of the time in Serie A, and only around 35% of the time in Europe. They typically pack up the midfield, and play a more conservative, tactical defensive minded game when battling in Europe. With that said, I am going with the gut that we can squeak out 3 goals here. This line got smoked down to -110, but has started to recover again.
tomorrow's Europa card looks interesting indeed, I will be back with that later.
There is a bunch of Europa matches that typically I would be hitting pretty hard, but things get dicey as we move through these big tournaments, especially in the 1st leg. There was only 1 Over this week in UCL. I took a look at last year's Europa Round of 16 for a refresher, and there were many games that came in under. I am a little gun shy, and I am not going crazy here, but I do like these 2 matchups so im putting them out there.
DORTMUND/RANGERS OVER 3 +105
if it goes down to -138 or lower I will take some 2.5
ZENIT/BETIS OVER 2.5 -110
Good luck boys
DORTMUND/RANGERS OVER 3 +105
if it goes down to -138 or lower I will take some 2.5
ZENIT/BETIS OVER 2.5 -110
Good luck boys
