MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

I arrived here late in the season last year, didn't get to post many plays.
Here is my last post of the 2020 MLB season:

Record: 5-2 +$295.00

And that's where my season ends.
In my first post, I wrote about how I haven't followed MLB for years, I have no interest in the sport, but an old friend sent me an email with a system I gave him years ago:

"Reviewing my log books for MLB profiles this morning, here's the record of my best one:
21-11, 65% in 2009
25-10, 71% in 2010

46-21 combined, 69%

All that means absolutely NOTHING today. But, it interested me enough to see what it yields this season, so I'll play it and post plays here to pass the time until football starts; IF football starts."

The play popped up five times in 2020, and went 4-1. Good enough to track and play again next season. "

"Next season" begins today.

Nothing fits the profile play I detailed above, so no buys for me today.
I'll wait, watch, and pick my spots to jump on when I isolate one I feel has a high W %.

As always, I'll share picks in a few different situational spots I track,
analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, there will be more W's than L's.

Good luck to all the Mad Jackers with your play this MLB season . . .

 

[RBD]

I see the bastards have kept the F'd up "temporary, one year only due to Covid rule" where in extra innings a man appears by magic on second base - every inning!
Polls prove the fans think it's a shit rule, but since when has MLB ever done anything with the fans in mind?

This stupid rule means I'll get limited play on my best situational spot, the one noted in the post above.

This forces me to look for other situations to play, not a bad thing IF I can come up with a few.
I started a few over the weekend. I haven't played any yet, just charting the spots looking for an edge, with good results thus far.

I'm tracking four plays. For clarification purposes (and to avoid having to keep referring to them as things like "New Play" or "Main Play") I'll give each a two letter designation: BP, WF, GP, and GT.

For record keeping purposes, all plays will be based on $100 wagers ($100 on Dogs, to win $100 on Favs.)
All plays action unless pitchers specified.

So far I have:
BP 0-0
WF 2-0 +$214
GP 2-1 +$107
GT 2-0, Ov 1-0, Un 1-0, +$200

I see a lot of green W's in my logbook, only one Red L,
so I guess it's time to start sharing them and buying some of them.

As always, I'll list all qualifying plays, then chose which ones to buy.
(Why post the ones I don't buy? For record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for opinions on that particular game.)

Today's spots.
WF: Det +143, KC + 115, Pit +135, Phil +180, Hou +105
GP: St Louis +106
GT: LAD/Oak Ov 8' -120

I have half a mind to play them all and get the season started with a bang or bust, but, that's not very prudent.

I'll be back with buys.

Buys:

LAD/Oak Ov 8' -120

 

[RBD]

I'll be back with recap and full write up, posting now because the first game of the day starts in 15 minutes and it qualifies as a GT spot, Min/Det Ov 9.

GT's are 3-0, Ov 2-0, Un 1-0.

No buy for me, no time to do additional research.

Recap: Baseball off to a good start, hit my first play as LAD/Oak goes Over.

Record: 1-0, +$100

Posted plays did well.
WF 2-3, - $5.00 (season now 4-3, +$209)
GP 1-0, +$106 (season now 3-1, +$213)
GT 1-0, +$100 (season now 3-0, +$300)

Today's spots . . .


WF: Atl +105, St Louis +110, Pit +140, Phil +115, Mil +105
GP: Bos +140
GT: Minn/Det Ov 9 -115, LAD/Oak Ov 8 -120

 

[Coach Woody]

Nice hit yesterday.... I rode it with you.

Hoping for a fun full summer of winners RBD. Thanks for taking on some baseball!!!!!!

opcorn2opcorn2opcorn2x34:x34:x34:x34:

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Coach.
Like I said, I was tempted to do one of my "Play the whole card" days, have some fun, but opted to play it safe. Banked a unit, but could have played the whole card and doubled that.

The night was looking even better before Houston blew their lead by giving up 4 in the bottom of the eighth.
But the right thing to do is be patient, gather some data, and see which plays give the best opportunity to bank a profit. It's a looong season, no need to take risks this early.

I'm confident the BP spot will turn a profit, unfortunately, I won't get the 30 or more spots I would normally get due to the "runner on second base in extra innings" rule.

Everything else is new, just trying them out, looking for a post that uses totals or Dogs or (do NOT get caught up playing BIG $ Favs in baseball, that typoe of play probably bankrupts more sports bettors than anything else) hoping one gives me a high W or L % to use. Speaking of a high L %, have you rode any of the NP Ov fades in the NBA? They're killing at a 70% fade rate.

Still no buys today, may take the day off.
Good luck with whatever your play today.

 

[gridman]

Clarification Please

Clarification Please

Think I missed these definitions/abbreviations. Can you please tell me what each is and means - WF, GP, & GT. Would very much appreciated it. Thank you.

GM:shrug:

 

[Vicious]

Let's go RBD. We've got a Red Sox game at 12:10 ET. Good luck today!! :00hour

 

[RBD]

Grid,
The names are irrelative/insignificant, I just need SOMETHING to call them to differentiate the various plays.
I could have used Play #1, #2 etc, or Play A, Play B, etc.

WF is games where I think there's a decent chance that the wrong team is favored.
GT is game total.
Not sure what the other two are, I guess it meant something to me the other day when I was thinking what the heck to call them, but can't remember.

Vicious, yes we do have an early game with Boston and yes there is a play on it.
The first BP spot of the season (BP? Best Play, meaning a history of being profitable, I think.)

Updated spots:
BP 0-0
WF 6-7 +$24
GP 4-1 +$353
GT 3-2 +$70; Ov 2-2 -$30, Un 1-0 +$100
Total: 13-10, +$447

My record: 1-0, +$100

BP has Bos TT Un 4', Col TT Un 5'

GT has Un 9 in Milw, Ov 8 in LAD
LAD and Oak are each 1-1 in this spot

WF has SF, Sea
SF is 1-0 in this spot, Sea is 0-1

CORRECTION - I missed a play, Col Un 5' -120 added to BP spots for today.

Buys:

Bos TT (Team Total) Un 4' -130

 

[Coach Woody]

I rode the game with you today and hope it wasn't me jinxing it.

Boston is my can't win or figure out team.

I bet them to WIN......They get blown out

I bet them to LOSE..... They kick someones ass

I bet Team Total Under...... and of course the team pops off 9 runs and counting.

I need to lay off this team.

 

[RBD]

Coach,
No biggie, can't win them all. I normally wait to gather some data before buying spots, but this play has a good history, and it's going to get limited plays this season, so I took a chance and jumped on the first spot that appeared.

GT's have done well thus far, looks like I may have missed an opportunity by not buying Mil Un so I'm coming back with the next spot, LA/Oak Ov, even though I'll need LA to score most of the runs I need.

Mid-game update: Things are going just swimmingly for my Over (sarc).
LAD, 5 LOB in just 2 innings. Near impossible to do worse than that.


Buys:
Bos Un 4' -130 L
LAD/OAK Ov 7' -115

 

[gridman]

Thanx For the Info

Thanx For the Info

Thanks for the info regarding the abbreviations. Interesting and humorous. You strike me as a really down to earth kind of guy - lovin' it. Take care my friend and hopefully your baseball plays will provide you enough activity to tide you over until the Ncaa football season starts, which btw is also my favorite sport.

GM

 

[RBD]

Gridman,

You're welcome, and thanks for the kind words.
MLB bores me worse than NBA, making it even more difficult than it normally is to win the battle vs the books. If I don't watch, I lose a little edge, less knowledgeable about teams and players. I try to watch but I just end up channel flipping.

But you don't have to wait for college football - Spring football is here.

Yes, it's little better than watching high school football but it's STILL better than MLB!
It's actually kind of funny - the third-rate productions, the amateur announcers, the play calling, etc.
But, bottom line, it's profitable. My FCS situational play is 28-20, Ov 17-4, Un 11-6.
Not as high as my FBS, but I'm banking units (11-3 on buys.)

I posted a few buys in the NBA forum because someone there asked for them, but this week I'll start sharing them in the college football forum here.

Recap: An ugly 0-2 day. Posted plays went 3-3, I didn't do a good job at choosing spots to buy.

For Bos TT Un, I got six scoreless frames in their eight at bats, but a 6 run fifth inning screwed me.

In LAD/OAK Ov 7', I missed by a half run when it landed on 7, mainly because LAD ended the game the same way they finished, leaving bases loaded in the 9th, after leaving bases loaded in the 1st.
In all they had 14 LOB, most of them in scoring position.

Only good move I made on the day was not buying the second BP spot, Col TT Un.
The # was 5', and they had a 5-0 lead at home, bottom of the eighth, three outs away from a winner.
I was regretting not buying the spot, but then they scored 3 in the 8th. (I may have to change the name from BP (Best Play) to WP (Worst Play) as it's the only spot with a losing record at 0-2!

Record: 1-2, -$145

Yesterday's posted spots, results, and overall record:
BP 0-2, -$250 (season 0-2, -$250)
WF 2-0, + $280 (season 8-7, +$304)
GP No Plays (season 4-1, +$353)
GT 1-1, -$15 (season now 4-3, +$55)
Total: 16-13, +$462

Posted spots are 16-13, +$462, and I'm 1-2, -$145? There's something wrong with that picture.
Making the day even worse - I missed a GP spot, Colorado. Won't count it here or in my charts but a lost opportunity, missed due to too much 'capping work, running #'s for NBA, MLB, and FCS.

Today's spots:

WF has KC
GT has KC/WS Ov 8
GP has Az, St Louis, LAA

So, what do I have?
I got KC in the WF spot, with a guy who has an ERA of 40.50.
One of my rules for betting MLB is - "Do NOT bet any game where your pitcher has an ERA over 40.1."
At 40.50, KC is eliminated as a play today.
(Yes, Im kidding, I do not have 40.1 set as my ERA ceiling.)
Keller couldn't make it out of the 2nd inning in his last start, giving up 9 hits and 6 runs in 1.1 innings.
I think I'll pass on this one.
Those Keller stats do make me like the GT spot, Ov 8, but while GT have a record of 4-3, they're underwater on Overs at 2-3.

Finally, I have three GP's to choose from.

I have St. Louis with Wainwright, who lasted only one inning longer than Keller did in his first start, and who has an ERA of 20.25, and I have a rule for betting MLB, "Never bet a team with a pitcher whose ERA is . . ."

I have Az, who sucks thus far, but they're playing Col who also sucks, so a "maybe" there.

And I have LAL, the only play that looks decent.

In summary, after an 0-2 night this might be a good time to take a day off.
I'll post if I buy anything.

UPDATE: Okay, what the hell, I'll bite.
KC and Chi are both avg'ing 11 runs per game this year.
Both are scoring an avg of 6 per game this season.
So, why the low total of 8?
It sure as hell ain't because of Keller!
Yes, Lynn's ERA is 0.00, giving up 2 unearned runs in his last start, but NO WAY he stays at 0.00, right?
And in his 4 starts vs KC, each game has seen at least 8 scored.
At 8, it looks like a trap, but it's not. I know because THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TRAP GAME!!!!
I made #'s in Vegas for years and never ONCE was the concept of a "trap" discussed, or the word trap mentioned.

It's simply a bad number (or at least I think it is; we'll know for sure later today.)

It's an over-reaction to:
Chi in a short-rest-after-travelling spot (playing a day game at home after a game at Sea yesterday afternoon),
Lynn's first start,
and low run production from KC in their last three games (only 8 total; 2.6 per gm.)

But if Keller stays true to form I'll only need 2 from KC.
The WS have scored 20 in their last three games and hopefully their bats will stay hot vs Keller today.

Update: After more than two hours in a rain delay, they're starting.
I prefer it was called off. I don't like MLB Overs on rainy, cold nights.

Buys:
KC/CWS Ov 8 -105

 

[gridman]

Whoa Nelly!

Whoa Nelly!

Haven't even given any thoughts to the so called spring games. But, I'll bite and start tailing your BUYS as I don't have any fr---k--g knowledge on those teams. Will be rooting for you. Happy hunting! And Good Luck!

GM:0corn

 

[RBD]

I don't know much about them either, Grid, just using the systems I've used in the past.
Learning a little bit more each week by watching though, already have a few teams I'd prefer to stay away from when using Unders (like Deion Sander's Jackson St. With a 30 pt lead and under a minute to go, HC Sanders was still throwing long passes, trying to run up the score.)

Recap: Lost with the KC/WS Ov spot. Got the 6 I needed from KC, but not the 2 runs I projected for KC.
Should have taken the day off as originally stated,
or, played the only spot I said looked decent, LAL,
or played the spots with the highest W %, the GP plays (2-1, +$133 for the day.)

Record: 1-3 -$150. Dug a bit of a hole the last two days, let's see if I can get out of it this weekend.

Spots:
BP 0-2, -$250
WF 8-8, +$204
GP 6-2, +$486
GT 4-4, -$50
Total 18-16, +$390

Slim pickings today, just two spots:
WF Det
GP Tor

With little to choose from, and on a 3 game skid, I'll likely take the day off.

 

[RBD]

No buys for me yesterday, good call on taking the day off, both spots lost.
Not sure if any of these systems will pan out, need more games played. Since I'm in a hole I'll play tight until I get a better feel for what will work and what won't.

Here are today's spots:
WF Sea, Col, Det, Pitt
GP Balt, LAA
GT Mil/St L Un 8.

records for these spots are in the post above, I don't have time to update them now I need to do some work on FCS.

No buys for me yet.

 

[RBD]

No buys for me yesterday, still tracking only, trying to find something that works.
Posted plays went 2-3.
Here are the updated records for what I'm working with:
BP 0-2 -$250
WF 10-11 +$209
GP 6-5 +$186
GT 4-5 -$160
Total -$15

For the first time this year the combined total is in the minus.
Two of the four plays are profitable.
Another week or so of data and I should be able to figure out which ones I can use and which ones can be dropped.

Today's spots:
WF - Pit, Tor, TB, Det, Sea, Milw, Tex, Wash
GP - Balt, Tor

The good thing about the WF spots is because they're all dogs all you need is a split to make a profit, but with eight games and action that's too many plays to buy to hope for 4-4 or better.

For the first time this season I have a game that qualifies in two different plays, Toronto.
I'm going to take a closer look at that game, I may buy it.

No buys. Yet.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, still gathering data hoping something emerges as a spot to buy.

Posted plays went 3-5, -$100

My record: 1-3, -$250 (corrected, last post had me at 1-3 -$150)

Updated charts:
BP 0-2 -$250
WF 13-15 +$209
GP 6-6 +$86
GT 4-5 -$160

Today's spots:
WF has Phil, Mia, Wash
GP has Chi C

No buys.

Update: Gotta jump in sometime. I'm playing two WF's, Phil & Mia, only need a split to make a little profit.

Update #2: Phillies' game postponed, so just one buy for now.

Buys:

Mia +125

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0.
A come-from-behind winner as Mia scores 2 in the 8th inning to tie it up, and 2 in the 10th to win it.

Record: 2-3, -$125

Okay, cut the deficit in half with yesterday's pick. Here's what I'm working with moving forward:
BP 0-2, -$250
GP 6-7, -$14
WF 15-15, +$444
GT 4-5 (Ov 2-4, Un 2-1) -$160

In total, +$20, with 3 of 4 systems not giving me winners to buy, or losers to fade.
Only bright spot is WF plays, because they're all dogs I can be around .500 and still have a decent profit.
If that continues, I'll just start buying them all, no further thoughts/'capping necessary.

Today's spots:

WF: Phil (Game 1 of doubleheader), Pit, Mia
Phil is 1-1 in this spot, Pit is 2-2, Mia is 1-0

GT: Ov in Oak/AZ, Phil/NYM (Gm 2), Un Tex/TB.
Oak is 1-2 in this spot, Az 1-0

GP: NYM (Game 2)

How does Nola vs Stroman (Phil/NYM game 2) warrant a total of 5'?
NINE of ten of Nola's starts vs NY have gone Over 5',
one of Stroman's two starts vs Phil have gone over 5', the other landed on 5.
UPDATE - Never mind, I just realized/remembered, another new, stupid MLB Covid rule - 7 innings for double headers. Side play stands but GT comes off the board, does not qualify.

Small data sample I know, but with a record of 2-4 I'm betting that both GT Overs don't go Ov today.
I don't like the Un in the Nola vs Stroman game, so I'm fading the early spot, Oak/Az.

Also, I'm buying the first of the WF spots, if it hits, bank it, if not I have two other games to choose from later in the day.

Buys:

Phil +125
Oak/Az Un 8' +100

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Phillies blew the lead in the last inning, and Oak went Ov in the spot I faded.
Record: 2-5 -$325

Posted plays went 4-2.
WF 2-1 (W's with Pit +$205, Mia +$153, L with Phillies -$100) = +$258
GT 1-1 (W with Oak Ov +$100, L with Tex Un -110) = -$10
GP 1-0 (W with NYM game 2 +$110) = +$110
Total: $358

Okay, let's review. Posted plays went 4-2, +$358, but I went 0-2, -$200??!!
The plays are winning, but I'm doing a lousy job at picking spots to buy.

Updated records:
BP 0-2 -$250
GP 7-7 +$96
WF 17-16 +$702
GT 5-6 -$170
Total 29-32, +$378

Plays +$378, I'm - $325. That's a swing of $703. L-o-u-s-y.
I have to do better with what I have to work with.

Today:

WF's Chi C, SF, Sea, Tex, NYM, Mia
SF is 2-0 in this spot, Sea 3-1, Tex 0-1, Mia 2-0


GT Wash Ov 8, Tex Ov 8, Phil Un 8, Clev Un 8
GT2 SD/Pitt Ov 7'

GP's KC, NYM

Back with buys if I buy anything.

The WF spots are paying off nicely, so I'm going to buy a few of those (besides, I never need much of a reason to bet against the Orioles.)

Buys:

SF +108
Sea +110

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0, W with SF +$108; Seattle rained out.
Record: 3-5, -$217

Posted plays:
GT1: 1-2-1, -$115
GT2: 0-1, -$110
GP: 2-0, +$220
WF: 4-1, +$513

Full records:
BP 0-2, -$250
GP 9-7, +$316
WF 21-17, +1,213
GT 1 is 6-8, -$290; GT 2 is 0-1, -$110

Every day I think, "Time to start buying all the WF spots" but then I back off thinking it will start to lose.
Yesterday was a horrible day to only buy one of them as it hit with Dogs of +108, +175, +110, and Mia +220.

Today's spots:
WF: Mia, Pit, Bos, Det, Sea game 2
Mia is 3-0 in this spot, Pitt 3-2, Det 0-4, Sea 3-1

Sorry about the late post, Mia and Pit games just started when posted.
Bos game also fits another situational play I track, 2-1 this season, will add it here if it produces more spots and W's.

Buys:
Bos +125
Sea +125