MLB buys for 2021

LineMovin

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Haha. We all definitely appreciate your hard work and posting. It ain?t easy!
 

LineMovin

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I?m going to follow your lead and take it one step further and double bet any play that is in multiple. Are you still going to be listing the BP?s and GP?s?
Thanks RBD
 

RBD

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LM,
I just updated my post to reflect there are no plays in GP or BP.
Also added record of teams in WF.
When I get a minute, I'll track and post the record for when a team qualifies as both WF and GP.
 

RBD

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Recap: 5-3, +$313

Okay, I can't complain after a 5-3 day +$313, BUT . . .
for the second day in a row I had a team that gave up only 1 run, but, I lost. And St. Louis left the bases loaded TWICE.

Record: 11-12, +$88
Back in black after a short stay in the red.

Updated chart:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 14-11, +457
WF: 35-31, +$2,001
GT1: 7-12, -$655
GT2: 0-1, -$110

WF climbs above 2k for the season. But keep in mind, Dogs have been over-performing, the scales are tipped but will eventually balance out, Favs will make a comeback. Hope it doesn't start until next week though, as I committed to buying all WF's this week.

Today, no BP, GT, or GP spots.
WF: Pit, Sea, Chi, LAA, SD

Buys:
Pit +114
Sea +150
Chi C +105
LAA +115
SD +155
 

LineMovin

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RBD,
Did you get a chance to back test when a play is in WF and GP?
Thanks man
 

RBD

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Not yet. If there was a WF/GP match today I would have done it.

I'll get to it by tomorrow's post. It'll only take a few minutes because I use orange ink for the team's name in WF spots and purple for GP. So, all I have to do is go page by page through my MLB 2021 logbook and look for days where I have orange ink and purple on the same day, same game.
After each game is a red L or Green W, designating if it was a Win or Loss.

If I didn't use different color pens my handicapping would take much longer.
(And yes, I should be doing it on my PC but it just feels 'right' to do it old school, pen and paper.)

One of these days I'm going to insert a picture of a page from my logbook in a post (if I can figure out how to do it.) Some might find it interesting (or insane.)
 

#cruncher

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Not yet. If there was a WF/GP match today I would have done it.

I'll get to it by tomorrow's post. It'll only take a few minutes because I use orange ink for the team's name in WF spots and purple for GP. So, all I have to do is go page by page through my MLB 2021 logbook and look for days where I have orange ink and purple on the same day, same game.
After each game is a red L or Green W, designating if it was a Win or Loss.

If I didn't use different color pens my handicapping would take much longer.
(And yes, I should be doing it on my PC but it just feels 'right' to do it old school, pen and paper.)

One of these days I'm going to insert a picture of a page from my logbook in a post (if I can figure out how to do it.) Some might find it interesting (or insane.)

The best baseball season I ever had, back in the late 80's, my handicapping arsenal was the sports section of USA Today, a pencil, & a yellow highlighter. I think we tend to make it too complicated sometimes.
 

RBD

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#cruncher,
Yeah, there are easier ways to do it, and I keep telling myself to simplify things, but I'm a creature of habit.
I like to spend the morning sitting outside by the pool, surrounded by spiral notebooks, six different color pens, my PC, cell phone, and a cup of Yogi green tea; updating stats and running the day's games through various scenarios looking for an edge. Simple, and it works for me.
Good luck with E Wash this weekend, I like that spot and that #, will ride it with you.

Recap: 4-1, +$425

What a difference one game can make when playing money lines.
I'm sitting at 3-1, +$270, with SD still playing.
They lose and I'm still okay, +$170, a good day by any standards.
But, a W and I'm up +$425, a swing of $255.

SD blew a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 7th, and tied 2-2, bottom 8, they're in a jam - LA has men on 2nd and 3rd, no outs. But Roberts does the right thing, he yanks Crismatt and brings in Hill, who gets Muncy to ground out, runners can't advance. He intentionally walks Pollock (who homered in his last at-bat) and gets Neuse to hit into a double play. And I'm three outs from the $.
Bottom 9, Melancon comes in and he's all business, striking out the side on just 13 pitches.
And I bank +$425

Record: 15-13, +$513

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 14-11, +457
WF: 39-32, +2,426
GT1: 7-12, -$655
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Got to love those WF spots. Favs WILL make a comeback. But - when?

Today . . .

GT: Tor/TB Ov 7, Az/Atl Ov 8'
WF: Mil, Balt, Wash, Sea, Pit
GP: Cle

Yes, I said I would ride all WF's and fade all GT's until Sunday, but I WILL NOT BET ON BALTIMORE.
If anything, I'll fade those fucks.
And with a nice profit built up after being down $225 just two days ago, I'm going to play a little more selectively. Worst case scenario, I miss out on banking a few units; best case, I'm right about choosing spots and Favs coming back, and I save some units.

Let's look at GT's.
TB is 1-1 in this spot; Tor 0-0.
Atl is 0-2, BUT . . . Az is 2-0.
GT Ov's are 4-9, which means Az has accounted for HALF of the W's, and combined with TB, three of the four W's. Odds say this is a split at best, which means I lose juice. I'll play the odds here - no buys.

As for the WF's, I'm doing well with them so I'll buy the early spot, a play AGAINST the Cubs as much as a play ON Milw.
And, since I'm playing with house $, I'll take the biggest WF on the board with Washington, I don't care who's pitching.
Pit is 4-3 as WF plays, and Minn sucks so I'll buy that one.
And, after last night's W, Sea is 6-2 in this spot, so I'll ride with them, too

Buys:
Mil +152 (Correction +140)
Wash +260
Sea +125
Pit +145
 
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LineMovin

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RBD,
Are you familiar w Cisco?s MLB systems and the spreadsheet that list about 7 different of the systems? The u470, o525, 3 streak, etc?

I only bring it up because I usually follow a few systems on it and just recently as another scrub I will compare to what they have to your plays. The game 3 and 4?s for them seem to hit a high rate. Last night they had Houston on a gm 3 and today Cubs on a game 3. I won?t be able to back test but seems like it might be beneficial to compare. This may be non-information for you but wanted to put it out there
 

RBD

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Please, put out any and all info you'd like to.
Contribution, questions, tips and/or suggestions of any kind are always welcome.

I haven't heard of Cisco or his MLB system.
If he, or anyone, has something that suggests a play on or opposite a game I'm looking at, in any sport, it wouldn't affect my buying strategy. It's a big world out there, and you can always find strong factors for betting either side of a contest, so I just stick to what I'm working on, otherwise it leads to overthinking.

Plus, though I love 'capping, I'm looking to reduce my hours spent on it, not increase them by adding other factors or comparison-checking to bring into the daily equation.

And I really don't like baseball, or at least I haven't for 3-4 years now.
I walked away from the sport, not for any handicapping/bankroll + or - issues, I just lost my love for the Orioles, and the sport itself. These last couple years I didn't watch a single game. This year I'm trying to find that old spark, but would not be surprised at all if I suddenly drop it again one day.
 

LineMovin

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Completely understood. You definitely can?t overthink it. I?m glad you are looking for that spark. The system I?m talking about is a 4 game chase system that gets exhausting and I?m glad I found your plays.
GL
 

RBD

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All anyone needs to know about chase systems is this - every year, posts touting new ones pop up in various places. And every year, sooner or later, before the season ends, they disappear.

They're like "sharp" play systems, or "reverse line move" systems.
Every year someone is absolutely positive they've cracked the code, and have found a way to win by gauging what they think is public vs wise-guy money, and betting and giving out picks based on that info. They confuse their opinion with fact and thus cannot be helped, which is why I rarely jump in with first-hand knowledge that they really DON'T know sharp % or public %.
And the threads disappear, sooner or later.
Pyrite and unicorns.
 

RBD

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Recap: 0-4, -$400
Record: 15-17, +$113

Well, that was certainly ugly.
How do you draw something positive from an 0-4 day?
It could have been worse - my handicapping saved me $330.
I was going to fade all GT's.
I had two spots, both Overs. Their record was 4-9, a good stat to fade, right? But, in handicapping the spots I dug deeper and saw that Arizona was responsible for two of the four wins, which told me I was looking at a split at worst case, and losing juice.
With Tampa Bay accounting for one of the other two wins, I stayed off both games, and they both went Over.

Az now 3-0 in this spot, TB 2-1.
And I saved $230 because I did some extra handicapping, dug deeper into the record.

The other $100 I saved because I didn't trust those Bastard Birds to cover. And they didn't.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 14-12, +$357
WF: 39-37, +$1,926
GT1: 9-12 -$455
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: +$1,568

Favs came back with a vengeance Friday, 13-2.
Be careful with pups today.

Today's spots:

GT has Ov in Cin/St L, Mil/Chi,Tex/Chi.

WF has a lot of spots, Seattle, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Washington, Cleveland, San Diego.

GP has Det.

(A quick check of my logbook shows four spots when the same team qualified as WF and GP, and the record is 3-1.)

No buys yet, I'm going to look at some team records within these plays. I'll post if I buy anything, but after 0-4 yesterday I might just watch FCS playoffs today.
 

LineMovin

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I took the bait w Det since in BP and WF.

Thanks for looking that up to get the 3-1 record. I?m going to be more selective and only take the Buys...that seems to be the wisest

Have a good rest of weekend
 
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RBD

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3-2 on that spot now, LineM, and four in play today.


No buys yesterday, and it was probably the worst day of the year for me.

In NBA, I had three plays, two of them won, the third lost but it was the "Fade the NP Over" spot, which means it was a 3-0 day, $300 left on the table.

In MLB, I abandoned my pledge to play all WF spots and fade all GT spots after WF went 0-5 and GT went 2-0 on Friday.
Saturday?
WF went 3-3, with some big money dogs winning, +$225.
And GT's went 0-3, which would have been a profit of $300.
All told, +$525 left on the table in MLB.

And the only play I did make?
J Madison in FCS, who blew a nice a halftime lead, but was still getting me a push at -14 until I got backdoored with 8 seconds left in the game. This, after their safety dropped an easy INT two plays before that.

Charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 14-13, +$257
WF: 42-40, +$2,151
GT1: 9-15, -$790
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:

GT: Mil/Chi C Ov 6'

WF: Balt, TB, Cin, Chi C, SD

GP: Balt, TB, LAA, Chi C

My head's a little screwed up after yesterday, not seeing things clearly this morning, not sure if I'll play anything.
Maybe after I check some records.
 
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RBD

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No buys yesterday.
Posted spots went 4-6

Record: 15-17, +$113

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -150
GP: 16-15, +297
WF: 44-43, +$2,076
GT1: 9-16, -$910 (Ov 6-13, Un 3-3)
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:
GT has Un 9 in Balt/NYY, Ov 8' in LAA/Tex
Balt is 0-0 in this spot, NYY 1-0; LAA 0-0, Tex 0-2

WF has Balt, Mia, Sea, Cin
Balt is 3-0 in this spot, Mia 4-1, Sea 7-3, Cin 0-2

GP has Cle
Cle is 0-1 in this spot

Mia is 4-1 in this spot, but they've lost 3 of their last four games and face Burnes and his .037 ERA; pass.
Balt? Pass.
Cin is winless in two games in this spot; pass.

Buys:
LAA/Tex Un 8' Ev
Sea +160
 

RBD

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Recap: 0-2, -$200
Record: 15-19, -$87

Posted plays go 6-1 but I manage to go 0-2??!!
I use the only WF that loses, and, I fade the GT Ov because it's 6-13, and it goes Over.
The GT Ov play is 7-13 now, and I think I'm 0-2 playing ON it, and 0-3 playing AGAINST it. It's my jinx spot!

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 17-15, +$412,
WF: 47-44, +$2,451
GT1: 11-16, -$710
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: $1,833

My plays have a total of $1,833, yet I'm down $87?
Just not doing a good job of picking spots.

Today:

GT: Balt/NYY Un 9', LAA/Tex Ov 9, Det/Chi WS Un 8, Col/SF Ov 8

WF: Cle, Balt, Chi C, Cin

GP: Cle

Some duplicates/same plays as yesterday.
I hate buying something I stayed off of the day before, and it won, but I'm tired of handicapping winning spots that I don't buy. I can't play the GT's, I just have no luck with them but I'm going to buy WF's all week long, and let the chips fall where they may.

Buys:
Cle +100
Balt +165
Chi C +150
Cin +220
 

RBD

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Recap: 2-2, +$120
Record: 17-21, +$33

Posted plays, GT's hit 2 of 3, WF's split 2-2 for a profit, GP 1-0.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 18-15, +$512
WF: 49-46, +$2,571
GT1: 14-17, -$525
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:

GT has Col/SF Ov 7

WF has Cle, Mil, Pit, Bos, Balt, Wash, Det, Az, Col

GP has Cle, Mil

Too many WF's to play them all like yesterday, will do some more 'capping and get back with buys.

Buys: Cle +110
Milw +100
 
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RBD

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MLB is tough, I'm + $, then I'm -$; then + $ again, then -$. But, if I'm going to go down, I'm going full steam ahead. First two buys today didn't work out, so, what the heck, I'm rollin' with ALL of the remaining plays (except GT Overs, I can't beat them.)

Buys:
Cle +110 (L)
Mil +100 (L)
Pit +110
Bos +230
Balt +140 ("Thank you sir, may I have another!")
Wash +155
Det +190
Az +135
Col +130
 
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RBD

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Recap: 2-6, -$215
Record: 19-27, -$182

Dropped the two early games, down -$200.
I battle back with the afternoon games and I'm only down $15 heading into the two night games.
All I need is a split and I can sqeek out a small profit for the day, but . . . no.
I picked the wrong day to play every WF on the board.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 18-16, +$312
WF: 51-52, +$2,356
GT1: 15-17, -$425
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today's spots:
GT has Col/Az Ov 8'
WF has St L and Mil
GP has St L

After yesterday's loss put me back in the red, I'll probably take today off.
 
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