MLB buys for 2021

[LineMovin]

MLB buys for 2021

What is current record for GT overs?
I saw they went 4-0 the other day so i faded them last 2 days and went 4-1 (they went 1-4)


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For GT over angels yesterday I got 9.5. Not sure if there was a pitching change mid-day from your 8

looking forward to when you BUY again in MLB! You went on a nice run last week


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[RBD]

A logbook check shows GT1 Ov at 22-21.

Fading them after the 4-0 day was smart, they over-performed and a correction was in order; good call, way to read the numbers and make them work for you!

My logbook also shows LAA total at 8.
I checked a line move source and it shows 9' everywhere, so, no pitching change adjustment or line move, just an error on my part. I thought the likely reason is I grabbed the total from either the game above it or below it on the board, but they weren't at 8 either, so I don't know where the hell I got 8 from.

My standard process is to use the common number in Vegas, available at at least 4-5 houses (it does no one any good if I use a line that's only available at one or two houses, a line most can't get.)

Anything up to 9 would have been a play, but at 9' it would not have qualified, so I'm x'ing it out on my charts.

GT1 is 28-26, -$360; Ov 21-21, Un 7-5

Thanks for picking me up on that one.

I'll buy MLB again, (looking hard at NYM today, but that just might be my anti-Balt-bias showing) but right now my MLB is fine, at + $, while my NBA has been caving, so I want to put more time into that and try to finish the season with a better balance.

I like the pitching matchup in Balt/NYM, but . . .
the $ is a little high (I try to avoid laying high juice in MLB),
I don't like Mets vs lefities, just 1-3,
and Mets are on a 5 game W streak which brings this stat into play:
Teams trying to get to W #6 in a row are just 4-8.
They're 2-3 at Hm (which means you'd have a nice profit fading them because you're getting + juice $'s.)
Teams at five straight W's are just 2-5 on the road; a useful stat to keep in mind.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Posted plays went:
GT 1-1, -$10
WF 4-2, +$250
GP 1-1, +$10

Today:
GT has Sea/LAD Ov 8
WF has Pit, Chi C, Col Gm 2, Det, Oak, TB
No GP spots

No buys.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Posted plays went:
GT Push
WF 3-3, +$110

Updated charts:
BP: 1-3, -$265
GP: 29-22, +$964
WF: 84-90, +$3,211
GT1: 29-27, -$270
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:
GT has Minn/Chi WS Ov 7'
WF has Tor, St L, Minn, TB, Tex
GP has Oak

No buys, yet.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Record: 30-34, +$458

Posted plays:
GT 0-1, -$100
WF 3-2, +$195
GP 0-1, -$100

Today:

GT has Wash/Az Un 9, Mia/LAD Ov 6'

WF has Pit, Det, LAA, Phil, Tex, St L, Mia

GP has Atl, Cin

No buys, yet.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went:
GT 1-1, -$20
WF 2-5, -$225
GP 1-1, +$20

My record: 30-34, +$458

Updated charts:
BP: 1-3, -$265
GP: 30-24, +$884
WF: 89-97, +$3,182
GT1: 30-29, -$390
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today...

GT has Tex/Hou Ov 8, Cin/Col Ov 11
WF has TB, Oak, Pit, Mil, KC, Az, Col, St L
GP has NYM, Tor

I want to buy something today but not sure what yet.
I'll be back with an update after I look at a few more charts.

Update: Mil and St Louis fit another system I chart, decent W %

Buys:

Mil +105
St L +120
Oak +130

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-3, -$300
Record: 30-37, +$158

Review: Well, that was certainly an ugly day.
BOTH of my best systems produce a profit,
yet somehow I managed to go 0-3.

I liked all three spots, no regrets, they fit multiple systems. Thought I was off to a good start with the Oakland game, but...
Had a 4-1 lead, with two out in the bottom of the eighth.
Was 4 outs away from the money, and then...
The Twins had a 4-run two out rally.
I will never understand why managers stick with a relief pitcher until the lead is blown before they pull them.

Updated charts:
BP:1-3, -$265
GP: 31-25, +$914
WF: 93-101, +$3,301
GT1: 24-23, -$290
GT2: 0-1, $-$110

Today:
BP has Col team total Under 5'
GT1 has Tex/Hou Ov 8, St L/SD Ov 7'
GT2 has Cin/Col Un 11'
WF has Pit, Phil, Det, KC, Sea
GP has TB, Atl, Oak

Buys:
Atl +120
TB -105

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 31-38, +$158

Review: TB was an easy W.
In the Atlanta game I got 9 runs, which normally gets you a win, but the bastards gave up 10, so . . . an L.
Down 0-7, they fought back and made it interesting though.

Posted plays went 4-7.

Short on time today, I'll update charts tomorrow.

Today has:
GT NYM Ov, LAD Ov
WF has NYM, Wash, Tex, Det

That's all for today.
No buys for me.

 

[RBD]

Yesterday was a bad day to not play WF spots; 3-1, with dogs of +240 (Tex), +140 (NYM) and +160 (Det) providing a profit of +$440 on the day.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-4, -$382
GP: 33-26, +$1,019
WF: 97-106, +$3,521
GT1: 32-31, -$410
GT2: 0-2, -$220

A week or so ago I said it looks like WF spots are going to go over 3k, and the only way to profit on them was to play them all. I didn't, and now it looks like they're on their way to 4k, so, again, the only way to profit from them is to actually start playing them all and not picking/choosing spots to buy.

Today:
GT: SF/Cin Ov 8, Col/SD Ov 7
WF: Balt, Bos, Chi C, Min, KC, Det
GP: SF, Chi C

Plays may be added as lines go up for games that are currently off the board (NYM, Phil, LAD)

UPDATE: Pitchers announced, WF also has NYM and Az.
Hate the Az spot, but I said I was buying all WF spots, so . . .

Today I'm doing what I hate doing - making buys after a lost opportunity the day before, buying all the WF spots today after they had a great day yesterday when I didn't buy any.
But, if they're going to 4k+, I'm going with them, and not missing out like I did when I said the same thing when they were under 3k.

Odds are the GT spots are unlikely to go 2-0, right?
I have an early and a late spot, so I'm going to play the odds.
I'm going to buy the early game; if it hits, I'll either bank it or let it ride (depending on how the WF spots are doing.) If it misses I'll buy the late spot to try and get back the lost unit.

Buys:
SF/Cin Un 8
Balt + 135 (bastards)
Bos +122
Chi C +105
Min +105
KC +155
Det +105
NYM +135
Az +210

 

[RBD]

Recap: 6-3
Record: 37-41, +$588

Review: Checking my ledger this morning, I couldn't figure out why my balance was higher than the # I had in my head. Did a game-by-game breakdown and found something I missed last night - Min had a pitching change that took my wager from +105 to +130, a nice surprise (99% of my wagers are action. Rarely do I specify pitchers, unless the play I'm using is based on going against a team with a lousy record vs lefty's, in which case I list the lefty.)

I hit the first GT fade with SF/Cin, but had too many WF buys undecided when the second GT game was about to start, so I banked it. And a hat tip/thank you to Line Movin for that one. Last week, after GT's had a 4-0 night, he played the odds and faded them the next two days and went 4-1. Same principle last night - odds are they would not go 2-0, so with a late and early game to choose from I played the odds and faded the first spot for a W. Had I known I was going to go 5-3 on WF's I would have pressed the SF $ and bought Col/SD, too.

By the way, anyone see how the Twins came from behind to win?
Not only did Sano pull off the rare feat of a three home run game, but his first was to left field, his second was to center and his third was to right field. Very impressive.
And Detroit got me a win via a Turnbull no hitter.
All in all, a nice night.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-4, -$382
GP: 35-26, +$1,229
WF: 102-109, +3,851
GT1: 32-33, -$635 (Ov 25-27, Un 7-6)
GT2: 0-2, -$220

Okay, I got away with playing all WF spots yesterday, and I made a nice profit, but it was no fun and I am not looking forward to doing it on a regular basis.
I don't like playing that many games.
The odds say go with it, it is profitable, but it just feels wrong.

Today:
GT: TB/Balt Ov 8, Cle/LAA Ov 8
WF: Min,Chi C, Oak, Det, Tex
GP: Cin, TB

Update: Tex now qualifies as WF; added above

I said I am not looking forward to buying all WF spots again, but I'll go for this first game on the card.
Minn has performed well below expectations this season, and they HAVE to be feeling confident after their comeback win in the bottom of the eighth (2 runs to tie the game) and ninth last night. That's the kind of game that can turn a season around. Plus, I have another system I'm charting that has a record of 8-3 this year, and it has Minn, too.

Buys:
Min +110

 

[LineMovin]

Thanks for the hat tip!

I?m now playing all the GP?s. Been doing it since Sunday when they went 2-1 and last night 2-0. I?m honestly going to ride them on out. I like the limited volume and so far 57% win pct to date. I try to do my best of handicapping the capper and I like what I?m seeing. Thanks for posting.

FYI- keeping an eye on those GT over?s to fade. Waiting on them to go 3-0 or 4-0 and then I?m going to pounce


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[RBD]

LM - You're welcome.
(check your stats, GP was 1-1 last night, Cin lost.) You're correct, they're hitting at 57%. That's a nice profit in any sport, but even more so with this situational play because they're all at dog prices.
I'd like to find a way to increase that % by a couple points, maybe if I have time today I'll break it down into HM or RD games, see if there's an edge either way?

Recap: 0-1, -$100
Record: 37-42, +$488

A month and a half into the season and I'm up about $500, I'm good with that. MLB is difficult to beat, but avoiding M/L favs, especially BIG M/L favs, is certainly a key to staying out of the red.

Yesterday was a mix of good moves and bad moves.
I can't fault buying the Min spot, ya can't win them all.
NOT buying all spots was a good move, it saved me some $.
My mistake was in not posting Det.
I mentioned that one of the reasons I liked Min was because they also fit another system I'm working on that was 8-3. Det was in that spot, too, so my intention was to buy the first one - if it hit, I could bank it or let it ride. Odds say it wasn't going to go 0-2 so if the first spot lost I was going to buy and post Det, but I got caught up in watching the NBA and forgot to add Det.
That spot (it's logged as H2H in my charts because it's two systems going head-to-head) is now 9-4,
and I have two of them today, BUT . . . one is the Birds (assholes.)

I don't see a hurting Angels club sweeping, I like that they're off a loss with Ohtani and I like that they're just 3-7 vs lefties. I still think Min is going to turn their season around, so I'm "playing the odds" - taking Min game one, if they win I'll bank or press, if they lose I'll come back with them in game two.

Today:
WF has SF, Balt, Wash, Oak, LAA (both games), Mia, Bos (Update - LAA game 1 no longer qualifies)
GP has LAA Game 2
H2H has SF, Balt

Buys:
SF+132
Minn -115 (Game 1)
Balt +145 (fuck-face idiot jerkoffs)

 

[LineMovin]

I typed my message during the games so 1-1 hadn?t happened yet. 2-1, 2-0, and now 1-1. 5-2 last 7

Keep it going!


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[RBD]

Re: the SF game - chicken #1, chicken #2, chicken #3, chicken #4, etc, etc.

Re: Baltimore - "fuckface, idiot jerkoffs!" As expected.
I'm tempted to bet against these bastards every day for the remainder of the season.
And as long as I'm betting with house money, I just may do it.


Update - my bet stands because I already bought and posted it, but for charting purposes, LAA, game 1, no longer qualifies as a WF spot.

Update #2 - My Minnesota lefty walks the #8 hitter.
Then he walks the #9 hitter.
Tied 1-1, he walks the two guys at bottom of the order.

Me? I'd yank him, right then and there.
I don't care if it's only the 2nd inning, I don't care if it's the first inning,
I DON'T PAY A GUY A HALF of a MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR TO WALK GUYS WITH A .189 BATTING AVERAGE!!!

But . . . I'm not the manager. So despite loading the bases with two straight walks to non-hitters, Baldelli lets Thorpe pitch to Gosselin, WHO HOMERED off of him in his first at bat.
I see what's coming next, ANYONE watching knows what's coming next (except Baldelli) - Gosselin sends it to the warning track for a double, and 1-1 is now 4-1.
No wonder his team has the worst record in all of baseball.

MLB managers - the most overpaid, overrated jackasses in pro sports.

Update #3: No bet on game 2 of the doubleheader.

 

[LineMovin]

Definitely would be interested in home and road on GP. Curious to know

Thank you!


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[RBD]

LM, I'll try to get to that today.
Update: I put an H or R next to each GP play in my logbook, then went back and calculated the record for Home or Road. Results are of no help, Hm 21-16, Rd 15-13.
Note - I spotted an error, missed an L on the record; the money was subtracted from the total correctly, so the $ amount has been correct, but the record was short by one L; corrected record in updated chart below.

Recap: 1-2, -$83
Record: 38-44, +405

What's one of the maxims for sports betting? Do NOT bet due to anger or revenge.
I had a good strategy mapped out with the Min/LAA doubleheader, but got so pissed off at the game one Min loss (and not helped by the O's screwing me again) that I called off the play in game two, which was a winner that would have given me a profit on the day.
You HAVE to eliminate emotion from your wagering.

Posted plays went 3-5, -$145

Updated charts:
BP: 1-4, -$382
GP: 36-29, +$1,129
WF: 106-116, +$3,621
GT1: 33-34, -$645
GT2: 0-2, -$220

Today:
GT1 has Balt/Wash Ov 8', TB/Tor Ov 9, LAD/SF Ov 7
WF has Cin, Tor, Tex, Det, St L, SF
GP has Cin, NYM, Oak
GT2 has TB/Tor Un

Can't fade GT1 spot with TB/Tor Ov because GT2 has it as an Under play.

It's taking all of my discipline to not buy Wash just to have a play against the O's (loserboys).

Got a H2H spot with Det (10-5 after yesterday's split)

Buys:
Det + 147
St L + 106
Oak + 103
Bos + 145
SF +115

 

[LineMovin]

Is there one shop you get your lines to calculate dollar count on the BP?s?


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[RBD]

No one shop.
I use a line that is common to most shops so that anyone who wants to use the play can do so.

The #'s I buy are often slightly better than what's posted because I have multiple options.
I don't use them for posts because I think the fair thing to do is use the common #.

I think its BS when people (not here) post "I have the Raiders -2''" when the line opened -3, and stayed -3 all week long (unless they say they're buying the hook) and when called out on it say, "Oh, I got that from my local guy" knowing it can't be disproved.
Or they post the opening # on a total 3-4 days after it moved multiple times to a different number.
That's egotistic, not altruistic.

My write-ups do take time though, and I usually do half, then come back and finish after doing more 'capping work, so the line I originally log into my charts may change by the time I post (happens all the time) so I try to double check everything one more time after posting.

Do you need the $'s for BP's already posted, or ones that will be posted in the future?
Easy enough to do if you want them, just let me know.

 

[LineMovin]

I only ask because im trying to maximize my $. I play them for a decent size and my local seems to be 5 to 10 cents off most of the time which over time is a lot. I like to use my local because he loads me up a nice account and offshore I have to front the money


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[RBD]

Recap: 3-2, +$195

Record: 41-46, +$600

Posted plays went 7-5, +$288, including a nice 3-0 sweep on GP spots.

Also got a W with the H2H spot, 11-5 now.
Got one of those today, but it's Pittsburgh and I really don't like the pitching matchup.


Updated charts:
BP: 1-4, -$382
GP: 39-29, +$1,442
WF: 109-119, +$3,696
GT1: 34-36, -$765
GT2: 0-3, -$340


Today:
BP has Mia tm tot Un 3' -115, Tor tm tot Un 4' -115
GT has NYY Un 8, Cin Ov 8, Pit Ov 9', Chi C Ov 8,
Bos Ov 9, TB Ov 9
WF has Pit, Balt, Phil
GP has Col, St L

Buys:
Col +103