MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 47-50, +$830
Review: faded the GT spot for a win.

Updated charts:
BP: 3-5, -$282
GP: 47-32, +$1,991
WF: 128-144, +$3,732
GT1: 47-46, -$680 (Ov 37-39, Un 10-7)
GT2: 0-4, -$455

Other spots:

ON 21-25, -$518
AGAINST 60-47, +$1,088

O 23-29, -$893
A 57-47, +$198

Time to eliminate systems that are not worth taking time to track.
I'll likely keep tracking in my logbook for a few more weeks, to see if anything changes, but for now, I'll cut back posts to the spots that are worth buying.

BP has been good, historically, but it's crap this year; no value as a play on or fade; it's gone.

GP is solid, a winning record at 47-32 (59%) and profitable at +$1,991; that's a keeper.

GT is 47-46, so even though it's down for the season at -$680, it's really not a great fade with a record at approx .500. I'll keep it here for another week or two because I think some of you may want to see it, but if it doesn't yield better results I'll drop it, here and on my charts.
GT2 is gone.

WF looks like one to drop with it's losing record of 128-144, BUT . . . at +$3,732 it's my best earner.
Plus, it's great for action lovers, guys who like to bet a lot of games.

Of the systems I haven't posted here, the "100 %'ers" (O and A) are a lot of work for a not very high ROI, but AGAINST (I'll call these BB) spots are 60-47, +$1,088. The idea for this system didn't come to me until late April, so I don't have a full season of tracking, but what I do have looks good, so I'll 'cap and post it from now on.

Today's spots:
GT: has SD/Chi Ov 7, Tex/Col Un 11
WF has TB, Balt, Mia
GP has NYM, Col
BB has Atl, NYY, NYM

Buys:
NYM +105

 

[LineMovin]

Nice hit on the Mets!


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[RBD]

Thanks LM, that was an easy pick, it qualified in two solid systems.
Hope I have one like that today.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 48-50, +$935

Review: Picked the strongest play on my charts, got a W.
Mets went up 4-0 top of the first - YAY team!
Mets gave up 5 in the bottom of the first - BOO!

Posted spots: GT 1-0-1 (Phil rained out), GP 2-0, WF 1-2, BB 2-1

Updated charts:

GT: 48-46, -$580
GP: 49-32, +2,200
WF: 129-146, +$3,662
BB: 62-48, +$1,143

Today:

GT has Tex/Col Un 10', Cin/St L Ov 8'
WF has TB, Bos, Det, Sea, Chi C
BB has Pit, Hou, KC, Col, NYM

No games that qualify for multiple systems, no GP spots, think I'll take the day off, concentrate on finding something to buy in the NBA. I'm one W away from topping $1,000 in MLB, I want to make my next play a strong one.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, should have made some though as posted plays went:
GT 0-2, -$220 (fade spot, 2-0, +$200)
WF 3-2, +$237
BB 3-2, +$88

My record: 48-50, +$935

I like the cleaner look (and less work for me) now that I've eliminated some spots, so I can focus on the ones that have been profitable.

Updated charts:
GT: 48-48, -$800
GP: 49-32, +$2,200
WF: 132-148, +$3,899
BB: 65-50, +$1,231

Today . . .

GT has Phil/Wash Ov 7, LAD/Atl Ov 8'
WF has Det, Sea
BB has Wash, Chi WS, LAA, Tex, KC

Buys:
KC -115

 

[drrage]

No buys yesterday, should have made some though as posted plays went:
GT 0-2, -$220 (fade spot, 2-0, +$200)
WF 3-2, +$237
BB 3-2, +$88

My record: 48-50, +$935

I like the cleaner look (and less work for me) now that I've eliminated some spots, so I can focus on the ones that have been profitable.

Updated charts:
GT: 48-48, -$800
GP: 49-32, +$2,200
WF: 132-148, +$3,899
BB: 65-50, +$1,231

Today . . .

GT has Phil/Wash Ov 7, LAD/Atl Ov 8'
WF has Det, Sea
BB has Wash, Chi WS, LAA, Tex, KC

Buys:
KC -115

Just an observation and curious your thoughts on how to reconcile when BB has the opposing side of WF? Last night they went 1-1. I guess you either play only one side of the system or if they cancel each other out, don?t play them at all? Not sure what I?m going to do. Maybe don?t play and see how they do when they compete.


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[LineMovin]

I?m going all in on GP?s, WF?s, and Buys. If there is an opposing play I won?t take it


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[bigs]

I?m going all in on GP?s, WF?s, and Buys. If there is an opposing play I won?t take it


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Yep. Had success following the buys for a while now. Very fine capping, I'm up when I use the buys.:0008

 

[RBD]

I'll start with a standard recap/review post, then I'll do a follow-up post to reply to the posts above (good questions by the way.)

Recap: 1-0
Record: 49-50, +$1,035

Review: Nailed that sucker as KC plated 9 in the first inning. Topped 1k in winnings for the year.

Posted plays, GT's split, WF 0-2, but how about those BB spots? 5-0!

Updated charts:
GT: 49-49, -$810
GP: 49-32, +$2,200
WF: 132-150, +$3,699
BB: 70-50, +$1,749

Today:
GT has Det/Chi WS Ov 8, Min/KC Ov 8, LAD/Atl Ov 8, Bos/NYY Un 9'
WF has Pit, Wash, Tex, Cle, Bos
BB has Hou, Pit, NYM, Wash, KC, Bos

No buys yet.
Tempted to go back to the well with KC again.

 

[RBD]

So, the question is, what to do if my systems have a conflict, one says take Team A, and another says take their opponent?
You guys read my stuff, so you know I'm a stat hound, a data mole, the sports betting version of a truffle pig sniffing around for winning angles.
Would you think I don't know the record of when my systems go Head to Head??!!

H2H, WF is 18-13 vs BB (58% advantage for WF.)
What if they match, and both have the same pick? 16-14.

Do I rely on H2H or match plays when deciding what to buy?
No, I track it but barely use it.

What DO I do when I have a conflict with two systems?
I dig deeper.
For example, in MLB, I check recent performance.
Is the team I want to bet off a win or a loss?
I try to avoid betting on a team that lost the previous night. Unlike football with its short schedule of only a few games, baseball teams play long seasons and have rhythms, ups and downs.
It's not a rule, but in general I try to bet on teams that are off a win, or against teams that are off a loss.

I check the pitching matchup. Most pitchers have rhythms, they're on for a few games, then they're off for a few games (except for the exceptions, the freaks, the guys who are usually unhittable all the time or get smacked around all the time and usually can't make it past the fourth inning.)

I pay particular attention to if there is a lefty on the mound and the team's record against lefties.

The other thing I do is check a team's record in that particular play.
For example, yesterday WF had Detroit, BB had the White Sox. I'll check to see what Detroit's record is in the WF spot, and what the White Sox record is in the BB spot.

Then, personal instinct and gut check come into play. And my personal luck with the team - do I have a good read on them, when I bet on them do they win, when I bet against them do they lose, or opposite, are they a team I don't see clearly and can't get right no matter which way I play, on or against.

Those are most of the factors I use to decide on what to buy in my pocket, and what to post as recommended buys.

Those are some of the things I run through after you see me end the post with, "No buys yet, I'm off to check some other numbers, I'll post if I buy anything."
For example, KC today. They've won five straight. One of the stats I keep is how do teams do after five straight wins, on the road and/or at home.
At home, teams in this spot have a winning record, but remember you're usually paying high juice in this situation.
On the other hand, teams with five wins in a row and are playing their next game on the road have a losing record. (No, I don't track different numbers, such as when a team has won four straight or six straight or eight, just five, for reasons not worth explaining.)
Just more stuff to factor into the final decision.

Hope that helps.
Thanks for the questions. One of the reasons I post is to talk sports and handicapping, especially if I can offer information on handicapping or money management that will help people not lose money.

Good luck with your play today . . .

 

[jng]

So, the question is, what to do if my systems have a conflict, one says take Team A, and another says take their opponent?
You guys read my stuff, so you know I'm a stat hound, a data mole, the sports betting version of a truffle pig sniffing around for winning angles.
Would you think I don't know the record of when my systems go Head to Head??!!

H2H, WF is 18-13 vs BB (58% advantage for WF.)
What if they match, and both have the same pick? 16-14.

Do I rely on H2H or match plays when deciding what to buy?
No, I track it but barely use it.

What DO I do when I have a conflict with two systems?
I dig deeper.
For example, in MLB, I check recent performance.
Is the team I want to bet off a win or a loss?
I try to avoid betting on a team that lost the previous night. Unlike football with its short schedule of only a few games, baseball teams play long seasons and have rhythms, ups and downs.
It's not a rule, but in general I try to bet on teams that are off a win, or against teams that are off a loss.

I check the pitching matchup. Most pitchers have rhythms, they're on for a few games, then they're off for a few games (except for the exceptions, the freaks, the guys who are usually unhittable all the time or get smacked around all the time and usually can't make it past the fourth inning.)

I pay particular attention to if there is a lefty on the mound and the team's record against lefties.

The other thing I do is check a team's record in that particular play.
For example, yesterday WF had Detroit, BB had the White Sox. I'll check to see what Detroit's record is in the WF spot, and what the White Sox record is in the BB spot.

Then, personal instinct and gut check come into play. And my personal luck with the team - do I have a good read on them, when I bet on them do they win, when I bet against them do they lose, or opposite, are they a team I don't see clearly and can't get right no matter which way I play, on or against.

Those are most of the factors I use to decide on what to buy in my pocket, and what to post as recommended buys.

Those are some of the things I run through after you see me end the post with, "No buys yet, I'm off to check some other numbers, I'll post if I buy anything."
For example, KC today. They've won five straight. One of the stats I keep is how do teams do after five straight wins, on the road and/or at home.
At home, teams in this spot have a winning record, but remember you're usually paying high juice in this situation.
On the other hand, teams with five wins in a row and are playing their next game on the road have a losing record. (No, I don't track different numbers, such as when a team has won four straight or six straight or eight, just five, for reasons not worth explaining.)
Just more stuff to factor into the final decision.

Hope that helps.
Thanks for the questions. One of the reasons I post is to talk sports and handicapping, especially if I can offer information on handicapping or money management that will help people not lose money.

Good luck with your play today . . .

Thank you! Really great read. Again.
Love to see a discussion tween you and Kenman
J

 

[drrage]

Enjoy your thoughts!! Thanks for taking the time to post. I?m learning a lot!


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[RBD]

You're welcome, guys.

No buys yesterday. I stayed off the KC play I was looking at because another system I have said to buy them, and it's 15-20, -$1,224 for the season (it has TB today.)

Yesterday's posted plays had a small profit on BB and WF spots.
GT went 3-1, not a good day for faders (correction - I posted the KC total at 8, it was 8'.)

Today:
GT has Ov Pit 8, LAD 8'
WF has Pit, Det, SF, NYM, Bos
BB has Phil, Pit, Cin, NYM, LAA, LAD, KC
GP has Oak

There's also a BP play, Pit team total Un 3' (these are 3-5, -$282)

While I'm handicapping, I make a notation next to any games that I may want to buy, then when I'm done capping I go back and take a closer look. Today the only one I had circled as my play for the day was SF, then I saw that Hendricks is 5-0 against them. None of those five came in the last two years though, so I may play it anyway.

If I buy anything I'll post it in a reply to this instead of adding an update, to save anyone who's interested from having to keep opening this thread.

 

[RBD]

Not buying SF was the right move (and Oak, who was in the GP spot.) Saved 2 units.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY DAY.

It was a good day to lay off MLB as most systems (GP, WF, BB) dropped $; GT fade came in at 2-0.)
The BP spot won, 4-5, -$182

Here are updated charts, to use this week:
GP: 49-33, +$2,100
WF: 137-155, +$3,829
GT: 52-52, -$835
BB: 76-57, +$1,598

My record is 49-50, +$1,035

Today:
WF has KC, Chi C
BB has SD

BB post has SD, conflicts with WF (Chi C)
H2H WF is 18-13 vs BB
Cubs are 13-4 vs lefties
Cubs are off a W yesterday
SD is off a loss yesterday (two straight)

Reason enough for me to buy Chi.

Buys:
Chi C +108

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 49-51, +$935

Damn, I really liked that Chi pick yesterday.

Today . . .

GT has Cle/St L Ov 7'
WF has Atl, Balt, Col, Min, KC, Chi C
GP has Min

No buys for me, I'm waiting for spot where BB matches with GP.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Updated charts:
GP: 49-34, +$2,000
WF: 140-160, +$3,746
GT: 53-52, -$735
BB: 77-57, +$1,698

Today:
GT has Overs in SF 8, Atl 9, Cle 8; Un in Mil
WF has Chi C, Pit, Balt, Atl, Cle, KC
BB has Mia, Chi C, Cin, Balt

Buys:

Atl +120
Cin -122

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 50-52, +$935

Review:
Got a W with Cincy. The Reds put up two in the first inning, three in the second, and never looked back.
Got a tough loss with Atlanta. Bases loaded, bottom of the second, no outs, they score ZERO.
You KNOW that's gonna come back to haunt you. Sure enough, they end up losing by one run, 2-1.
Even worse - they were up 1-0, bottom nine, 2 outs, one out away from the money. But . . .

Today:
GT has SF/Wash Ov 7'
WF has Cin, SF, Col, Minn
GP has Sea, Hou (correction: originally said Mil for about 5 minutes, should be Hou)
BB has Atl, SF, Col

Buys:
Sea +102
Hou +100
SF +157

 

[LineMovin]

The other day you talked about not betting on teams that burn you the most often. As of today, I?m putting Miami into that category


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[RBD]

LM,
Every season, every sport, there always seems to be that one team a bettor cannot win with - bet on them they lose, bet against them, they win.

Recap: 0-2, -$200
Record: 50-54, +$735

Today's qualifying spots:

WF has Det, Mia, Min, Az

BB has Det, SF, LAD, Az, NYM, Cle


After an o-fer like yesterday, I'll take the day off (plus, I don't really like anything on the card.)
No buys for me.

 

[LineMovin]

Other than every year is a new year, do you think the WF?s have a good chance of showing a healthy profit each year? How have they done in past?


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[RBD]

I have no history on any of the MLB plays I'm using.
Baseball bores me, I haven't watched a full game, or went to a stadium, in years.
I'm surprised I haven't dropped it yet this season.
I only wanted to track the BP spots, out of curiosity, because of that old email a friend forwarded to me from years ago (the story in post #1 in this thread) but, I started rooting around for other stuff that may work, and now I'm tracking 6-7 spots.

The only sport I have history on (18 years of charts/logbooks? 20?) is college football.

I have scattered notes/charts on NFL, and baskets, but nothing on baseball.

With WF spots, I don't know if they'll remain profitable, but with the already established bankroll they have a good chance at it this season.
I don't use them because I don't like playing a lot of games, and if you pick and choose your spots within the system you may play a game that loses on a day when the play is profitable overall.
(Unless I'm in the mood for action and play the whole card, but that's rare, I have pretty good discipline.)
I may buy games that are in the system on any given day, but not solely because they're in the WF spot.

Here's something I've been meaning to do for weeks, I'll put it together right now, a week to week accounting of WF:

4/11 +$209
4/18: +$1,758
4/25: +$2,076 (+$318)
5/2: +$2,571 (+$495)
5/9: $2,951 (+$380)
5/16: +$3,081 (+$130)
5/23: +$3,536 (+$455)
5/30: +$3,676 (+$140)
6/6: +$3,829 (+$153)

Based on those numbers, I should be playing every play, every day.
That's an avg of $258 per week, and even better if you have a lot of books to use and can get the best $'s each day.
When charting plays, I log the $ on every game, not just buys. The numbers are very volatile of course, but I always use a price that is commonly available at multiple houses. If I shaded the #'s to the best prices the data would not be useful, it would be inflated.

The question is - will it continue to payoff?
This week it appears to be on its way to the first losing week of the year.
If so, will it be a fluke, or the beginning of a trend?
My experience is that sooner or later, every system loses its edge at some point (except my college football Under stuff. Those plays don't win every season, but, most of them.)

For now, the year is going well, system-wise and in my bankroll.
But MLB is small $ play for me. I don't like it, I don't trust it (though if the #'s above continue to hold throughout the season maybe I should start to.)