MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 42-46, +$703

On the plus side, I did a good job at picking a winner, considering that posted plays went 5-8.
On the negative side, I should have faded some GT's as they were perfect at 0-5 on Overs.

GP went 2-0, and how about those BP's, making a comeback at 2-0.

Updated charts:
BP: 3-4, -$182
GP: 41-29, +$1,650
WF: 109-122, +$3,396
GT1: 35-41, -$1,210
GT2: 0-3, -$340

Today: (I have to find a way to tighten the qualifying parameters, I'm getting way too many plays.)

GT has Overs in Balt 9', Bos 7', Mil 8', Pit 8, SD 7,
Un Az 8
WF has both Chicago's, Bos, TB, Minn, Pit, Tex, SF
GP has NYM, LAA
H2H has Chi C.

I don't know what I'm going to do with this many games to choose from. I'll look at other systems I have see if I get any matches. I'll be back with buys if I make any.

 

[LineMovin]

Probably good day to take GT over after 0-5 yesterday. Hmm


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[RBD]

Last Sunday they were on the plus side at 27-23, +$95.00.
Just one week later they're - $1,210.
They're on a steady decline, I'd fade if anything, even after an 0-5 day.

 

[LineMovin]

Thats true and after I texted that I was like it?s an under play or nothing

Ha. Now I look at today?s scores and they go 5-0 over

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[RBD]

LM - I saw that last night (the 5-0) and was thinking, "I hope he didn't listen to my advice."

They say, "Always look at the bright side" so I guess we could say, "Well, it could have been worse, we could have missed out on 6-0, at least the Pit game pushed" but . . . that's pretty weak.

The real bright side is that after a 5-0 day we can fade them today?

No buys yesterday.
Record: 42-46, +$703

Updated charts:
BP: 3-4, -$182
GP: 42-30, +1,651
WF: 113-126, +$3,536
GT1: 40-41, -$710
GT2: 0-3, -$340
Total: +$3,955

Today . . .

GT has Balt/Min Ov 9
WF has Phil, NYM, Det
GP has Cle
H2H (12-6) has Phil

I'd like to fade the GT Ov but it has my MLB wagering nemesis in it, the O's (inbred jackholes.)

Buys:
Phil +113
Cle +115

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, +$15

Record: 43-47, +$718

Not much to look at, but I'll take 1-1 splits that earn a little $ every day from now to the end of the season.

And . . . HAH! I knew to not fade the GT Over after the 5-0 day because it had the O's (Douchenozzles) in it.
At 2-1 in the eight inning, it looked like an easy Under but an 8 run eighth inning pushed the game Over.

Posted plays went 4-1, +$360

Today . . .
GT has Over 7 in Phil, Over 6' in SD
GT2 has NYM Ov 6
WF has Pit, Tor, Col, SD, Balt, Hou, Tex, Sea
No GP spots today.

Update: H2H (12-7) has three spots, Hou, Tex, Sea

Buys:
Tex +139

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 43-48, +$618

Posted plays went 4-7, -$302

Updated charts:
BP: 3-4, -$182
GP: 43-30, +$1,776
WF: 118-132, +$3,604
GT1: 42-42, -$625
GT2: 0-4, -$455

GT2 is rare, but looks like I have to start fading them.

Today's spots:
GT has Balt/Minn Ov 9, Tex/LAA Ov 9, KC/TB Ov 7
WF has Balt, Sea, Cin, Tor, KC, Col, Hou

That's all, nothing else qualifies.

No buys yet.
(Won't count here, not posted, not enough time to get it in, but I saw the O's were up 1-0 mid-sixth, knew that wasn't going to last, got a live bet in on Minn +130. Bottom 6 - Sano 3 run dinger!)
"F the O's. F the O's. F F F the O's."

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday. (Good decision on the no buy, posted plays went 2-6.)

Record: 43-48, +$618

GT has Cin/Wash Ov 6'
WF has Col, Pit (CORRECTION: Col game one only)
GP has St Louis

Not a lot of choices today.
System for WF seems to spit out Pit as a play every day, I need to check their record in that spot.
I'm fading 'em today.

Buys:
Chi C -142
SD -115

Update: Cub game comes home a winner. Got SD still open. Got a 3-2 lead.
SD manager jayce tingler goes to the pen, bottom of the 6th, brings Johnson in, he strikes out the side.
Bottom 7th, still up 3-2, tingler thinks, "I can stick with my guy who just struck out the side, I mean, he's got good stuff today, but, I'M A MANAGER, I MAKE MOVES, THAT'S WHAT I DO, I HAVE TO MAKE A MOVE HERE TO SHOW WHAT A BRILLIANT STRATEGIST I AM!"
So he goes to the pen for stammen.
Single.
Walk.
Does Boy Genius tingley yank him and protect the one run lead? NAH!
He yanks the guy who struck out all three batters he faced,
but STICKS with the guy who gave up a single and a walk.
You know what happens next.
Three run homer, 3-2 becomes 3-5.

I'm tired of these overpaid, moron managers fucking with my money.
I dislike MLB so much that I may set a $ goal for my season and if I hit it, just walk away and ignore these jackasses like I usually do, take the summer off from 'capping and wait for football to start.

 

[LineMovin]

I was on that Diego game too for small action. Erghh

I am just taking the GP?s to keep the ?capping? out of it. I appreciate your posts.


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[RBD]

LM,
Losses are part of the challenge, most of them you shrug off, but ones that could have been avoided, like yesterday's, require a little venting. Like I always say, part of the fun for me is cursing out my TV.

I am thinking about doing less 'capping and posting though, for a couple of reasons - losing interest, need time for other projects, sometimes feel like I'm talking to myself - but I know you and a couple of guys here are interested in the MLB stuff so I'll keep posting the plays I track.
I have set a $ goal for myself, not something I do in college football, but a good thing for MLB I think.
If I hit the goal I won't stop 'capping, but I'll cut back on buys.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 44-49, +$603

Updated charts:
BP: 3-4, -$182
GP: 43-30, +$1,876
WF: 116-133, +$3,139
GT1: 43-45, -860
GT2: 0-4, -$455

WF's not showing the same growth they have in past weeks, seem to be treading water.
GT still a solid fade. GP's steady earners.

Today . . .

No totals.
WF has Cin, Mil, Det, Mia, NYM, KC, St L, LAA, Tex
GP has Mil, Tex

I track other systems than the ones above, and am always thinking of new ones to try.
Most come out to be 50-50, so I drop them. I usually don't post them until they're usable, but I had an idea this morning, and I'm going to post this new situational play, from day one - today.
It looks at a number of indicators that point to either a win or a loss.
Whenever the indicators are at 100%, W or L, I'll chart it.
When I get a game that has a high enough % differential between two teams, I'll buy it.

Here's today's 100%'ers
(teams graded at 100% chance to Lose or 100% to Win/their opponent/ their opponent's %):

Pit L (Col 10% W)
LAD W (SF 77% W)
Balt L (Chi WS 90% W)
LAA L (Oak 90% W)
SD W (Hou 83% W)
NYY W (Det 0% W)
Det L (NYY 100% W)
NYM W (Atl 44%W)

Breakdown:
Pit comes in at 100% chance of losing, BUT . . . Col is at 10% W, or 90% L, so, no buy, they both suck.
NYY is in the perfect situation. they're at 100% W, facing Det at 100% L.
LAD would be a no buy because SF has a high W % too. Same with SD.
Oak and Chi WS would be worth a buy.

Problem with these spots is the price tag is going to come with high juice.
I won't lay high prices in any sport (-150 is about my max in MLB), but I don't want to pass up beginners luck on day one of this new play, and I don't want to pass up that perfect situation in the NYY/Det game, so I'm going to try something different. I'm going to use NY in a two game parlay, leaving the second spot open, to be closed the next time I get the same situation, 100% W facing a 100% L.

I'm starting to get bored with MLB, so I have to find new ways to maintain interest, such as tracking and buying new plays, like this.

Today I'm buying the Yankee spot I just mentioned,
both GP's, Mil and SD (this is an interesting spot, I'm using the two teams that screwed me on the same game yesterday - SD who lost my $, and Mil who took my $ - giving them both a chance to screw me again),
and St L who is in the WF spot and another thing I track.

Buys:
St L +122 (listing Bumgarner)
Mil +105
SD +105 (listing Valdez)
NYY - 260, two game parlay, second play open

 

[drrage]

Appreciate your posts and have been following and playing. However, please don?t feel obligated. This is supposed to be fun and if it isn?t, don?t do it. Lol.


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[LineMovin]

Your sports coverage is the only insightful thing I read or see on tv these days. Lol

It is very refreshing and appreciated



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[RBD]

Drrage and LM - thanks for the kind words.
It's not that I feel obligated, and it is fun (the chess match, my #'s vs the bookies #'s, can I beat them?) and I am altruistic by nature, so I like sharing. I have another project pulling at me though, so time might get tight for a little while.
And MLB does bore me. I mean, I don't like NBA, but at least I can watcht it sometimes.
But when I put $ on a baseball game, I try watching, and end up channel flipping.

Like I said, tracking this new 100% play will renew my interest, hopefully it lasts.
I'm looking forward to seeing how it does tonight, day one.

Good luck to you both with your plays tonight.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1 (NYM rained out)
Record: 46-50, +$730

Review: Picked up $122 on St L, $105 on SD, dropped $100 on the parlay. Two pretty exciting games though, SD went into extra innings, in St Louis was up by two, Az had bases loaded bottom nine, but managed to survive.
The Yankee game is a perfect example of why you should never wait huge prices on money lines.

Not sure what to make of the first day of the 100% spots, certainly not something to play ON, may be worth something as fades, I'll track it for another week, see what comes of it.

GT has Cin/Chi Un, SD/Hou Ov, SF/LAD Ov
WF has Wash, KC, LAA, Cle, Hou, NYM, Mil
GP has Col Gm 1

Update: I just saw that the Colorado game already started, I thought it was 10:00 am PST. Had this circled as a buy, no score, can do a live buy in, but maybe Fate steered me off it?

No buys yet.

Update #2: Right after I posted the first update, Pit put up 3 runs, so maybe I am saved by Fate in that one.

Not sure if I'll buy anything, it may be an NBA day.

 

[LineMovin]

Have a good Memorial Day Weekend!


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[RBD]

Same to you, LM.
BBQ time, country style ribs, and Flintstone-size beef ribs on the menu.

 

[gridman]

Yummy!!

Yummy!!

Although it's only 7:55am in paradise, got hungry just thinking about them grits. Later for me.

Keep up the good work and for always sharing. No need to worry about us "gamblers" as I'm sure we all look at the various plays in our own perspective - play some and skip some. BTW, I'm with your as I, too, don't like the NBA. Have been dabbling in the NHL and doing ok, moneywise. Finding the games exciting especially when I have a little $extra$ on it - crazy, huh for someone used to surfing.

CAn hardly wait for the football season to start!!!!!!

GM:0059

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Grid!

No buys yesterday, saved a unit when I missed getting a bet in on Colorado, game one.

Not a lot of free time today or tomorrow, I'll update the charts Tuesday.

Today's spots:

BP has Hou team total Un 3' +106
GT has NYY/Det Un 9, SF/LAD Ov 7, Atl/NYM Ov 5'
WF has Mil, Bal, KC, LAA, Tex, Az
GP has SD

Not sure I'll be watching any baseball today, focusing on NBA playoffs.
Doing a little more stat work, if I see anything I want to buy, I'll post it.

 

[RBD]

Strange day.
Nothing qualified for NBA, and only one spot in MLB.
GP has Houston.

There are still a couple pitching matchups yet to be decided, so something may get added later today if I get time to come back in and look at stuff again.

I'll catch up all records and updates tomorrow.

Enjoy your Memorial Day with family and friends, and raise a toast to those who sacrificed for our freedom.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday. Posted plays 1-0.

My record: 46-50, +$730

Posted spots:
BP: 3-5, -$282
GP: 46-32, +$1,881
WF: 126-142, +$3,676
GT1: 47-45, -$565 (Ov 37-38, Un 10-7)
GT2: 0-4, -$455 (Ov 0-2, Un 0-2)

Other systems from my logbook:

ON: 21-25, -$518
AGAINST: 57-45, +$985

And the 100%'ers (O is a play on the team, A is a play against the team):
O: 9-7, + $48
A: 11-8, +$608

Today's spots:
GT has St L/LAD Ov 8'
WF has Bos, Az, LAA, Sea
GP has Phil

100%'ers has plays on Bos, Chi C, LAD, TB, SF; fades on Tex, LAA, Balt

Buys:
St L/LAD Un 8' -110