MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

Picking up where I left off . . .

Here's where the charts were last time in:
GP: 62-57, +$1,059
BB: 157-135, +$1,434

Here's where the charts are today:
GP 67-58, +$1,470
BB: 195-177, +846

GP have steadied, BB way down from a season high of over 3k.

Record: 66-71, +$715

Today, no spots in Play #1, Play #2 has NYM, NYY, TB.

I'm going off the charted plays to use Mil today.
I don't lay -220 on any Fav, so I took a look at the run line.
Here's what I found for today's game:

Sixteen of Mil's last eighteen wins have been by 2 runs or more.

Eighteen of Pitts last nineteen losses have been by 2 or runs or more.

Add to that the fact that Pit is just 7-19 vs lefties.

And Pitt is just 1-8 on Mondays (probably not much rhyme or reason to that stat but, hey, some people just hate going to work on Mondays.)

Buy:
Mil -1' -115

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 67-71, +$815

Today . . .

GP has Chi C, BB has Atl.
I'm not using either, I have another system I track that has a strong fade on Tex, I'm buying LAA.

Also . . .
Taking the temperature in Forum Land this week, I saw a lot of talk at various places about how the Hall of Fame game will go Under as usual, and Dallas is the play because they have a better bench and Pit's offensive line is beyond terrible so their QB's will have no time to make passes and their run game will be stuffed. I don't incorporate public opinion in my regular season 'capping, but it's as good as anything else in preseason, so, I made the two buys with fading Joe Public in mind.

The last two preseasons (before covid) I see Tomlin at 6-2 SU, five of those going Over tonight's #.
And McCarthy, well, McCarthy sucks in any situation, doesn't he? I'll bet Jerry cans him by mid-season.
Last two preseasons with the Pack he was 4-4 SU, seven of eight of them Over tonight's #.
So, what the hell, I'm going for some first-game-of-the-season-fun, and hoping the social justice warrior princesses who run the league choose a different preseason game to covid cancel to make an example of any who refuse to bow to them.

Buys:
LAA -107
Pit -2
Dal/Pit Ov (it's dropping, down to 31' now, wait to buy, hopefully get that hook off)

 

[Tkj]

Thanks RBD for the picks, can?t wait for your FB picks to burry the man.

 

[RBD]

You're welcome Tkj. I've already started crunching #'s for the games of 8/28 through 9/6, working on sides as I wait for totals to be more widely released. I'm also reviewing last year's logbook, seeing what worked, what didn't, where to spend my time this year and what to avoid.

Recap: 1-0, got a W with the Angels.
Record: 68-71, +$915

If I hit 1k I may call it a day and end the MLB season. I don't want to be 'capping other sports once I start work on college football. I'm within one win of that goal, so I'll be patient and wait for a really good spot.

Got a split on my two buys in the NFL, Pit -1' and Ov 32'.
My buy was based on believing I would get a minimum of 17 pts from Pit, guaranteeing a split at worst case. They scored 16, with a missed extra point and missed FG, but McCarthy sucked more than usual and Dallas only scored 3, so no chance at the Over.

Still it was GREAT to watch a football game again, wasn't it?

Next question - does having a game under your belt help in your second game, playing a team who is playing their first game?
I looked back at the teams who played in the last five H of F games, here's what I see in their second game: SU 5-5.
No edge there, but . . . of those 10 spots, eight went Ov the total in Pit's upcoming game, so I'm sticking to the same expected scenario (Pit will score 17 or >) in next week's game with Philly.
Philly's latest new head coach Sirianni was the former O coordinator for Indy, I'm hoping he'll be using his first preseason game to try some things on offense and put some pts up, unlike his predecessor.

Buys:
Pit +1
Pit Ov 33'

 

[Tkj]

:0074:0074:0074

 

[RBD]

Still waiting for a really good spot, one that fits multiple systems for my next MLB play.
I want one more W to reach 1k in profits before calling it a season and going full time football.

One of the spots I'm looking for is the "5-W's-in-a-row spot," on the road. They're 8-17, +$1,121 as a fade (a 70% play ON.) If I get a game that fits that and one of the other systems I use I'll post up a buy notice.

Hit both NFL buys last night as I got the minimum of 17 or > expected from Pitt.

NFL preseason record: 3-1

Will post up when I do my next buy.

 

[RBD]

Still 'capping MLB daily, just not seeing anything I'm interested in as football 'capping is taking up most of my time and thoughts.

Updated charts:
GP: 72-70, +$920
BB: 245-216, +$832

My record is 68-71, +$915

Both plays have dropped since my last update here at the beginning of the month,
GP dropped $550, BB dropped $14.

The "fade-teams-in-the-5-W's-in-a-row" spot is 23-18, -$61 at Home, 9-17, +$1,021 on the Road.
Still waiting for a Rd spot to jump on if all other factors also look good on the game.

I have another spot I've used here, doesn't come up much during the season. I last posted it on 8/5 when it called for a play on Tex. It lost again that day, now 4-7, -$490.
It says take the Mets today. I'm fading it again.

Buys:
SF -102

 

[Tkj]

Still 'capping MLB daily, just not seeing anything I'm interested in as football 'capping is taking up most of my time and thoughts.

Updated charts:
GP: 72-70, +$920
BB: 245-216, +$832

My record is 68-71, +$915

Both plays have dropped since my last update here at the beginning of the month,
GP dropped $550, BB dropped $14.

The "fade-teams-in-the-5-W's-in-a-row" spot is 23-18, -$61 at Home, 9-17, +$1,021 on the Road.
Still waiting for a Rd spot to jump on if all other factors also look good on the game.

I have another spot I've used here, doesn't come up much during the season. I last posted it on 8/5 when it called for a play on Tex. It lost again that day, now 4-7, -$490.
It says take the Mets today. I'm fading it again.

Buys:
SF -102

RBD, will tail good luck buddy!

 

[Tkj]

RBD, thanks for the SF play! Keep up the great work my friend, appreciate!
:0069:0069:0069

 

[RBD]

You're welcome Tkj, thanks for stopping by to let me know you liked the spot and rode it with me.

Recap: 1-0.
An easy one with SF putting up a snowman and the Mets putting up a doughnut.

Record: 69-71, +$1,015

With a thousand $ banked, my season will likely end here. I'll still run the daily card through the various scenarios I use to isolate picks, but won't dig deeper with further research to make any buys unless I see something that really stands out.

I've been selective in MLB in August, making just three buys in twenty-four days, and went 3-0.
They say 98% of sports bettors lose. I don't know, it's probably close to that #, but I'm pretty sure that one of the main reasons people lose is a lack of discipline, they bet too many games. Patience is a virtue.


I 'capped today's card, and Az is in the same spot the Mets were in yesterday, 4-8, -598 now after the Mets loss. I'm inclined to be happy with yesterday's bank and not press it today. The record is a solid fade at 8-4, 67%, but yesterday my $ rode with SF, a team that knows how to win. Today's spot needs Pittsburgh, an ugly team that doesn't know how to win. I'll pass. I'm posting this in case anyone else here is looking for angles on the game. I'd take Pit if I had too, but I don't, so, no buy for me.

Tempted to ride SF again. They're in the GP spot, which was 2-0 yesterday, and the Mets are a BB play, fresh off a 1-4 Tuesday.

But, like I said, I'm off today and likely for the season. A $1,000 profit is a nice goal to hit for me, especially in MLB which I don't usually 'cap and which I believe is the hardest sport to beat (although NBA has given me a harder time.)

Good luck to all the Mad Jackers with your play today, see ya in the college football forum . . .

 

[Tkj]

Love it! Again thanks for your time RBD, see you in FB forum!