MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, posted plays split, 1-1, no gain, no loss for not buying them.

Today:
GP has KC, Cle, SF
BB has Phil (gm 1), LAD

With $1,202 banked I'm playing on house dime, but that's no reason to play loose. I don't like any of these spots enough to buy one, so I'm off today.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went 3-2, would have picked up $136 if I stuck with the "Buy every game that qualifies" strategy, but would have been down $100 from Wednesday so not much difference.

Record: 59-60, +$1,202

Updated charts:
GP: 57-47, +$1,539
BB: 118-86, +$3,035

GP has been slipping all week, BB is a steady producer.

(Did anyone play against the two "5 W's in a row" teams yesterday, or at least stay away from playing on them based on the stats I provided? Both teams lost, including Toronto as a more than $250 fav. Could have banked $350 by fading Washington and Toronto. I couldn't bet on Baltimore. FYI, a good stat to keep in mind, these are now 16-19 at home, 5-10 on the road.)

Today:
GP has Wash, Atl
BB has Pit, Phil, Sea, LAD, SD, SF.

no buys for me yet, I'm going to take a closer look.

 

[RBD]

Betting on a game is a decision.
NOT betting on a game is just as important of a decision.
I'm entering the last day of what I said would be a week of buying every play and not picking and choosing my spots. And yesterday's decision to not buy anything was a really good call as it would have netted a loss of $465 as posted plays went 2-4 (Sea game postponed.)

Updated charts:
GP: 57-49, +$1,334
BB: 120-89, +$2,775

My record: 59-60, +$1,202

It's my belief that sooner or later, over time, all systems and edges even out. If you've made bank off of a system that's reverting back to .500, shut it down and lock up your profits. GP plays seem to be heading in that direction.

Today:
No GP spots. Just as well, they had a bad week.
BB has Mia, NYM, SD, LAD, Tor, TB, Tex.

An ugly card, with three big $ favs.
I'll be back if I buy anything.

Update: I bought baseball's version of the Bucs.

Buys;
TB -154

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1

Record: 59-61, +$1,048

Review: Looking at the box score, you might think the loss came because the TB bullpen blew a 2 run lead when they were just 9 outs from the money. But, it was their right-fielder who was to blame (I actually watched an MLB game for a change so I know what happened.) It won't show up in the stats because the official scorekeeper was generous to the hitters, but Margot dropped two balls that should have been caught, both going for doubles.
First, he ran in on a ball he misjudged, then had to backtrack, only to watch it sail over his head on a bounce. The next flub was even worse - he let the ball hit off the heel of his glove because he overran it. One, if not both, should have been ruled an error.

Posted plays went 4-3 for a small profit.
A final look at the "Let's play ALL spots for one week" strategy. Final accounting: -$136.
My weekly accounting: +$226.
Looks like I didn't do such a bad job at picking and choosing after all.

Side note: the "5-in-a-row spot" continues to be a good fade as SF lost.
Teams in this spot are 16-20 at HM, 5-10 on the RD, a combined 21-30, 59% fade (and remember, you usually get an attractive price fading the HM spots, like taking Oak yesterday at +145.)
Use this as one of the factors when you're considering buys. (Mil is in this spot today.)


Updated charts:
GP: 57-49, +$1,334
BB: 124-92, +$2809

Today:
BB has Mil, Cle, Boston, Hou

I was all set to ride the Cubs today as Mil is in the 5-in-a-row spot, but then I did my 'capping and Mil came up as a BB play. Got a conflict there so no buy.

Cleveland? I don't bet on guys with an ERA over 10.00, and I certainly don't lay -158 with them.

Houston? I don't lay -300 on any team, even if they're playing Baltimore.

Don't like Boston either.

But, I do like fading Pittsburgh. Why?
#1- They pretty much suck in general, but especially vs . . .
#2 - lefties (5-12 against), and especially on . . .
#3 - Mondays. "Tell me why, they don't like Mondays" (0-6.)
Yes, Col sucks too, but not as badly?
Let's see if the Pirates go to 0-7.

Buys:
Col -119

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 60-61, +$1,148

Nailed that one.
You don't win too many bets when your team only scores 2 runs, especially in a place like Coors Field, but Pit played their part perfectly for me last night, scoring zero; 0-7 on Monday's now, and 5-13 vs lefties.

Posted plays went 3-1 for no gain or loss on the night, WHICH IS WHY YOU SHOULDN'T LAY -$300 ON MLB!!!

Updated charts:
GP: 57-49, +$1,334
BB: 127-93, +$2,809

Today:
GP has TB
BB has Phil, SD, NYM, Chi C, St L, SF, Cle, Bos, Hou, Wash

Too many games, too many favs.
Having this many makes my head spin trying to figure out which one(s) to buy.

Have a conflict with GP/TB and BB/Wash. H2H (Head to Head) BB has a slight edge at 5-4.

I didn't mark any spots as a buy when I was 'capping, may take the day off.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went: GP 0-1, -$100; BB 6-3, +$145

GP spots continue to slide. If they drop below 1k I will drop the play.
BB continue to profit, 9-4 this week, but only +$145 as the Astro's 2 losses burned $600 profit from other games, which is WHY you should never lay -300 on an MLB fav. Those TWO losses wiped out SIX wins.

Updated charts:

GP: 57-50, +$1,2354
BB: 133-96, +$2,954
My record: 60-61, +$1,148

Today, no GP spots.
BB has Pit, Mia, Atl, Cle (gm 1)

Note - Bos is in the 5-W's-in-a-row spot, at home these are 17-20, but not a good spot for a fade as they're playing KC, who's on a 7 game losing streak.

I'm not using Pit, $ too high on Cle.
Probably no buys again today, waiting for a certain spot to pop up.
It's a loooong season, and patience IS a virtue.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted spots went 2-2, +$22

Updated charts:
GP: 57-50, +$1,234
BB: 135-98, +$2,976

My record: 60-61, +$1,148

Today:
GP has SD
BB has LAD, Mil, Col, Atl, Sea

Note - LAD in 5-W-in-a-row spot; road teams in this spot are 5-10, but like the Bos game yesterday, I wouldn't fade this one, also because LAD is in the BB spot.

GP's haven't been doing well lately, but I like today's game.
Also tempted to take BB spot with Atl and go against Da Gromster, may add it if Sea comes home a W in the early game.

Update: No buy on Atl, no need for it. Sea is in, a winner. This means I'm looking at either +$70 or $275 for the day, based on SD outcome. I'll eschew (eschew??!!) going against a pitcher with a record of 7-2 and an ERA of .069 and instead I'll lock up the sure profit for the day.

Buys:
Sea +170
SD +105

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, +$70

Record: 61-62, +$1,218

How about a little love for the BB spots? A perfect 5-0 for +$630.

Still shaking my head over the SD loss.
It's 3-3 going into the 7th and I love my position because I have the best bullpen in the majors against the worst. Sure enough, I get a 4-3 lead.
Bottom of the ninth, and I get the bottom of the batting order; piece of cake, right?
One up, one down. I'm two outs away from the money when SD imploded.

Updated charts:
GP: 57-51, +$1,134
BB: 140-98, +$3,606

Today:
GP has TB, Mia
BB has SD, Cin, Col, SF, KC, Oak, NYY

GP has been on a 2 week downward trend now, and 9 L's in a row I think. I was hoping for a H2H with BB spots which have been hot, would have been an easy pick to make. None today, maybe tomorrow.
I'm taking one of them and fading one.

Buys:
Atl -114
SF -148
TB +110

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1, +$100

Record: 63-63, +$1,318

TB was a loser early on, SF was never in doubt. Atl was a tight one. The Braves had a 1-0 lead in the ninth, and Miami had the bases loaded, one out. I thought I was in for a repeat of San Diego the night before, two outs from the money and they blew it, but, Atlanta held on.

GP spot has completely collapsed. Not unexpected, like I always say, sooner or later everything reverts back to 500. but usually not in such drastic fashion as this spot has now lost 11 straight.
Normally I would drop a play off of my charts at this point but since they're on an 0 -11 streak I'll post them for another day or two just for fade material, in case anyone's interested.


Updated charts:
GP: 57-53, +$934
BB:143-101, +$3,601

Today . . .
GP has no games that qualify.
BB has Pit, St L, NYY

Not much to choose from, and none of these really stand out or fit other systems I use. I'm having a good week, not going to give any units back on games that I don't really like. With one day left, I'll take today off, and look for a play tomorrow to lock up my profit for the week.

 

[RBD]

From yesterday:
"Not much to choose from, and none of these really stand out or fit other systems I use. I'm having a good week, not going to give any units back on games that I don't really like. With one day left, I'll take today off, and look for a play tomorrow to lock up my profit for the week."

Good read on the day's plays, and taking the day off, as they went 0-3. No need to force anything even though I've got a nice profit to play with.

Updated charts:
GP: 57-53, +$934
BB:143-104, +$3,261

My record: 63-63, +$1,318

Today:
No GP plays
BB has Pit, Mia

Like yesterday, not much to choose from.
I don't bet Pit in just about any situation, and I like Atlanta today so I'm not playing Miami (but I'm not fading a BB play, either.)

No plays, I'm done for the week. Discipline is one of the main keys to winning, and one of the main keys to discipline is working in weekly windows, Monday to Sunday, with the goal always being to close out with any profit you can. Another main key to discipline is not forcing bets. Would love to have some 4th of July action but it looks like a day to celebrate and bbq.
I'll pick up the battle with the bookies again tomorrow.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Posted plays went 1-1, +$60. They were thisclose to 2-0, +$330 and I was regretting taking the day off, but Miami blew a 7-3 lead in the bottom of the 9th.

Updated charts:
GP: 57-53, +$934
BB: 144-105, +$3,321

My record: 63-63, +$1,318

A sports betting lesson:
On Sunday, June 21, GP plays peaked at +$2,301.
Today they're at +$934.
Most plays, over time, balance out.
Same thing will likely happen to BB spots. The objective is to make some bank from them before they do.

I'd normally drop GP spots at this point, but since they're on an 0-11 streak I'll post them for a few more days, hoping to get a conflict between one of them and a BB spot for a possible buy.

Today:
GP has Cin
BB has LAD, NYM, Chi C, Cle, LAA

Tempted to take the Cubs today see if they break their nine game losing streak.
Tempted to take Cincinnati to see if GP spots break their 11 game losing streak.
Buying two games of a type you normally would not see me buy because of high prices, LAD and Atl.

Buying LAD because:
they're a quality team,
they're hot,
they're a solid 15-9 (62%) vs lefties,
and Mia is off a crushing loss in which they blew a four run lead in the 9th.

Buying Atl even though they're the highest price I paid on a game all season because I already banked a unit from this situational play last Monday, so I'm really only laying -80. Ride it until it bucks you.

Buys:
LAD -155
NYM +116
Cin +110
Atl -180

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2, -$109

Record: 65-65, +$1,209

The Braves loss hurt, but it was the Dodgers that screwed me, tied 4-4, bases loaded in the 8th, 1 out and they can't score.
Still, try to learn something from your losses, and yesterday served to remind me of two things to help me stay profitable:
1 - DON'T play BIG $ fav's
2 - Stick to system plays (Atl was not a system play; remove it from my card yesterday and I'm 2-1, +$71)

Updated Charts

GP: 58-53, +$1,044
BB: 145-109, +$2,942

Was good to see GP get back to winning. Will it continue to do so?

Today:

GP has LAA, Col
BB has Mil, LAD, Chi C, Col, Hou, SF, Minn, Bos

Okay, a lot to digest.
First, I have a match, both plays say take Col.
Matches are 6-4.
I also have a H2H (Head-to-Head) battle, as GP says LAA, BB says Bos.
H2H spots are 6-4 in favor of BB.

Buying three this morning, may add SF and/or Bos later this evening.

Buys:

Mil +230
LAD -132
Col +117

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2, -$242

Record: 65-67, +$977

From Monday, July 5: "A sports betting lesson: On Sunday, June 21, GP plays peaked at +$2,301.
Today they're at +$934.
Most plays, over time, balance out.
Same thing will likely happen to BB spots. The objective is to make some bank from them before they do."

I didn't mean it as a jinx, but since I posted that reminder, BB's have gone 2-9 and dropped $959!

I got no help from the Dodgers, who screwed me again last night, losing by one run again, leaving FOURTEEN men on base, including two on in the bottom of the 8th in a tie game, and going a pathetic 2-11 with men in scoring position. And the defense joined in on the fun by giving up a two out, game winning error on a throw from the catcher to third base, a throw that should have never happened in the first place.

Colorado gave up a run in the bottom of the ninth to the worst team in baseball and my night was finished.

Updated charts:
GP: 59-54, +$1,049
BB: 146-115, +$2,362

Today . . .
GP: No games qualify
BB: LAD, Az, Bos, Chi C, Hou, Cle (gm 2), Mil (gm 1)

Not about to give the Dodgers a chance to screw me three days in a row, not at -200 when they're playing like they are right now, when their bats, bullpen, and defense have abandoned them.

No play on Hou, they're in the 5-W's in-a-row spot; 18-20 at HM, 6-12 on the RD after Cincy lost last night.

The Cubs? No, not on an 11 game losing streak.

I was all over Mil yesterday vs The Grom, when I was getting +230 on them, but it's a much, MUCH lower price today.

Off two losing days, for both me and BB spots, and nothing I really like on today's card, I'll take the day off.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went 3-4, -$165

GP: 59-54, +$1,049
BB: 149-119, +$2,197
My record: 65-67, +$977

LAD bullpen blew it for the third day in a row, giving up 3 in the bottom of the 9th.
I just checked the charts, BB play has lost 5 days in a row now, peaked at +$3,606 on July 1 after a 5-0 day, dropped $1,409 since then, with $447 of that figure coming from the Dodgers.
Glad they're not a play today.

GP: Cin
BB: Pit, KC, SD, Det, Oak

I like Cincy but GP spots have been cold.
I don't bet Pit; not betting against a hot Houston team; Cleveland has lost 9 in a row but KC's not much better, having dropped 7 of their last 10 (plus, Cle is just 15-18 vs lefties); of the remaining two, I prefer the pitching match-up in Det.

Buys:
Det +115

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1, -$100
Record: 65-68, +$877

Posted spots, GP 0-1, -$100; BB 2-2, +$55

GP: 59-55, +$949
BB: 151-121, +$2,251

Time to start fading GP spots? They don't look like they're going to mount a comeback.
None today.
BB: St L, Mia, Pit, Cin, TB, NYY

TB looks to be the best of the lot, but I'm in a down week, I'll likely take the day off and hope for something stronger tomorrow.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went 3-3, +$30

My record: 65-67, +$977

Updated charts:
GP: 59-55, +$949
BB: 151-121, +$2,281

Today...
GP has Atl
BB has Pit, SD, Atl, Det, Balt, KC, NYY, Bos

I can eliminate Pittsburgh and Baltimore, I usually don't buy either of them as a general rule. I like San Diego and the Mets but the price is too high.
I don't like KC or Detroit.
Have a match in the Atl/Mia game, matches are 6-5.

Buys:
Boston -$160
Atl +100

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, -$60
Record: 65-68, +$917

Posted plays went 4-5, -$153

Today's spots:
GP has Atl, TB, LAA
BB has Atl, St L, LAD, Hou, Tex, Sea

I have a match with Atlanta, matches are 7-5
H2H match up in LAA/Sea, H2H is 5-6, slight edge BB.

Buys:
Atl +115
TB +112

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2, -$200 (wrong $ on TB in Sunday's post, they were a dog, not -120)
Record: Record: 65-70, +$717

Well, that (0-2) was an ugly way to end the first half, but if you asked me at the beginning of the season if I would be happy with a profit of $700 at the mid-season mark, I'd have said, "Yes, very."
Especially since I think MLB is the toughest sport to beat (although NBA is giving me a harder time.)

Now the goal is to survive the second half without giving it back.
BOTH systems I relied on in the first half are collapsing, so it's going to be difficult.
With college football about to begin I'll be spending much of the time I have allotted for handicapping there, leaving me no time to try to find any new systems for MLB.

Back tomorrow for the start of the next round.

Good luck to all the Mad Jackers in the second half.

 

[RBD]

Okay, second half, here we go.
Goal #1 - do not give back first half profit
Goal #2 - add to first half profit

Sounds simple, though it's easier said than done.
But what the hell - let's give it a shot and have some fun.

Updated charts:
GP: 61-57 +$949
BB: 156-129 +$2,028

My record: 65-70, +$717

Today:
GP has Phil (Gm 1)
BB has Phil (both games), Wash, Az, LAA, Cle, Atl (Cin removed due to pitching change)

Got a match on Phil game 1, matches are 7-6.
I don't like the Cle and LAA spots.
Atl and TB both screwed me last time here.
Az? I don't think so.
SF is not a play, but if the price wasn't so high I'd be on them.
I do like a couple though . . .

Update: Due to pitching change by Mil, the Cin game no longer qualifies as a BB play.
It stays as a buy here though, as I already posted it with no pitchers listed.

Buys:
Phil (Gm 1) +110,
Cin -112

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, -$2.00
Record: 66-71, +$715

Brutal day for posted plays, GP spots went 1-0, but BB's got crushed, 1-6, -$594. They were +$3,601 on July 2, +$1,434 today.
Nothing lasts forever sooner or later everything reverts to .500, but these plays are crashing like a NASA experiment gone bad.

GP: 62-57, +$1,059
BB: 157-135, +$1,434


Today:
GP has no plays active.
BB has Mil, SF, Oak, KC, Chi WS, LAA

I was going to start fading GP spots but they seem to have come around, seriously looking at BB as a fade today. Problem is, I like a few of the spots (I never need much encouragement to bet against the Orioles.)
I won't use SF because I liked them yesterday, didn't play them and they won. Won't jump on the bandwagon today, plus they're in the five-wins-in-a-row spot, which is 20-21 at Home, 6-12 on the Road.

No buys for now, will probably add Kansas City later.