MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
50-54, +$735

Updated charts:
GP: 49-36, +$1,800
WF: 142-165, +$3,180
GT: 54-55, -$965
BB: 83-63, +$1,863

Today:

GT has Ov in KC, Cin
WF has Wash (game one), Phil, KC, Tor, Az, Min
GP has NYM
BB has Det, St L, Balt, SF game one, Cle, NYM

Update: Added buy

Buys:
NYM +120
Bos -118

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, +$2.00
It's not much, but at least I can pay off that pain-in-the-ass paperboy now. (Someone will get that reference, right?)

Record: 51-55, +$737

I'll update charts tomorrow.

Today:
GT has Ov in NYY 8, Cle 7'
WF has NYM, Col, Det, Atl, Bos, Minn
GP has Bos
BB has Wash, NYM, Mia, Cle

No buys, maybe later.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, mainly because it was the last day of a week where every system not only dropped $, but got their asses kicked, except for GT plays which had a slight gain. Looking back at the week I decided to take Sunday off, and it was a good call, as posted plays lost again.

Record: 51-55, +$737

Updated charts:
GP: 50-37, +$1,820
WF: *148-173, +$3,106
GT: 57-56, -$775
BB: 86-70, +$1,240
* I left Mia off Saturday's posted WF plays; added it for accuracy

Was last week a blip or the beginning of a regression?
Let's find out.
Today:

GT has Tor Ov 9', Sea Ov 8, Col Un 11'
WF has Det, Sea
GT2 has Col Un 11' (these are 0-4)
BB has Wash, Cin, TB

Buys:
Wash -120

 

[LineMovin]

Yesterday had Atlanta on the WF. Did WF have Atlanta and their opponent Miami?

Nevermind.. you said Saturday

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[RBD]

From Sunday:
"Recap: 1-1, +$2.00 "TWO DOLLARS!"
It's not much, but at least I can pay off that pain-in-the-ass paperboy now. (Someone will get that reference, right?)"
Nobody? Really? Too obscure?

Anyway . . .

Recap: 1-0, hit with Wash.
Only thing I didn't like is that Pit was on an 0-7 run, I hate jumping on a streak, but that (the fact Pit lost 7 straight) was not part of the 'cap, it wasn't why I liked Wash.)

Record: 52-55, +$837

Today:
GT has Det/KC Ov 8', Tex/Hou Ov 8', Pit/Wash Un 8', SD/Col Un 11'
WF has Chi C, Pit, Balt, Mia, Col, Sea, Phil
GP has Mil, Sea
BB has KC, Hou, Pit, Col

Probably no buys for me today, no games circled while I was 'capping, nothing stands out.

 

[LineMovin]

RBD, do you have the WF records for home teams and road teams?

Thanks in advance bud


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[RBD]

Sorry, I don't. Wish I did.
I like the way you're thinking though, "Could we find an edge we could use on either Home or Road?"
That's handicapping. That's digging deeper. THAT'S how you improve your bottom line.

If this was football, I would have the record, because I make investment size $ bets in football and look to gain all the edges/advantages I can.
Also, I like football, so I like doing stat work/number crunching on it.
I don't like baseball. This past weekend I got the measure of just how much I don't like baseball:
I had a few bucks on a baseball game.
It was on TV. I started to watch it to see how my $ was doing.
A commercial came on; I went channel flipping until the commercials ended.
While channel flipping I came across a World Cup qualifier (I think that's what it was) soccer game.
Soccer bores me as much as the next guy, BUT . . . I stayed with the soccer game.
I watched a soccer game with NO money on it, rather than a baseball game I had money on.
THAT'S how much baseball bores me.
(I only watched soccer for about 10 minutes before I said, "The hell with both sports, I'm going to watch Chopped instead.")

I'd like to have the HM/RD records but to get them I'd have to go back through my logbook and look at more than 300 hundred games. That's a lot of work, but doable. But what makes it impossible is the games are not marked home or away, so I'd have to research and record that first, and that's too much time.

A lot of early games, I'll update charts another time.

GT has SD Un 12, Tor Ov 8', Tex Ov 9
GT2 has SD Un (this was also charted yesterday but forgot to post; record 1-5)
WF has Det, Col, Pit, Tor, Balt, Sea
GP has St L
BB has St L, Cin, KC, Chi C, Min, LAD

Update: left Chi WS off BB plays. Bottom 7, up 2. (Tomorrow I'll explain how games get left off.) Tied 7-7 now.

Buys:
St L -113

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0

Record: 53-55, +$937

Well, that was fun, a bottom of the ninth W.
Indulge me in a bit of weirdness (or skip over this part): while I don't like watching baseball on TV, I find myself preferring to watch it on the espn Gamecast. Like yesterday, score tied 0-0, bottom nine.
My lead off guy gets on because of an error. He's represented by a little blue dot on first base, on the graph that looks like the playing field.
Next guy whiffs, one out.
Next guy walks, I have a blue dot on first and a blue dot on second.
Now the fun starts. You're rooting for the picture of the field to turn onto a different picture of the field, the one they switch to when a ball is in play (rather than a SO.)
The ball in play is represented by another blue dot that begins it's journey at home plate.

What your rooting for now is the little blue dot to travel past the infield and land in the outfield, preferably down the first or third base line, where it will likely be a hit.

Wherever it travels on the field, you want it to end in a blinking blue dot, meaning it's a hit, rather than the black X which means it's an out, and you're rooting for your blue dot on second base to round third and head for home, which is exactly what happened in yesterdays buy on the Cards.

It may be strange to watch icons when I have a perfectly good TV I could be watching the game on, but it's the only way I can enjoy watching MLB.

ANYWAY . . .

Updated charts:
GP: 52-38, +$1,920
WF: 154-182, +$3,091
GT: 60-63, -$1,245
BB: 95-75, +$1,626

I need to lessen my workload/time spent 'capping, and focus on spots that are profitable, ones I use.
I rarely play WF and GT spots, so I'll likely drop them in a few days and use GP and BB for the remainder of the season.

Today:
GT has SF Ov 7', Det Ov 8'
WF has Balt, WS, Sea
GP has Tor
BB has Chi C, Atl, Con, Chi WS

While I cap, I mark any games I want to come back and buy after the work is done.
I have no games circled today, don't like anything, no buys for me.

 

[LineMovin]

I don?t like to watch games I play on in any sport. Gives me too much anxiety. I do find myself watching the dots though or refreshing my phone hoping I see a positive outcome. Trying to train myself not to check scores though but it is tough.


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[gridman]

Ditto !

Ditto !

Hey LM - got a chuckle out of your comment as I myself do try to refrain from watching a game that I have some substantial $ on a side. But, I do sometimes sneak a peek instead of waiting for my phone to pop off. Guess we feel and think alike. Also, RBD, I really don't enjoy watching mlb games and mostly watch highlights on ESPN. Same for NBA. On a side note, recently have started to watch NHL games and find myself enjoying it a lot. The playoffs are quite exciting especially with a little beer money on a side. Don't fully understand all the nuances of the game but I'm learning. Keeps me occupied until football season.

GM

 

[RBD]

I didn't like NHL until I went to see a game, live.
TV just can't catch the excitement, or the skill required to play the game - the limited view on the TV screen can't capture players setting their teammates up for a pass and other nuances of the game.

Plus, a live NHL game gave me one of the best dating stories of my life, I shared it in the NHL forum, I'll copy and paste it here for some Friday entertainment:

Years ago, I got comped two tickets to a Devil's game at the Meadowlands.
At the time, I'm dating a typical Staten Island club chick - big hairdo, not so big brain.
She's not a sports fan, never been to a game before, never even watched one on TV, so I take her with me.

The Penguins were in town.

During skate around, she points to a guy on the ice, and struggling to pronounce his name she says, "What's that guy's name? 'Lemmy-ux?' 'Lamooks?' "

I say, "That's Mario Lemieux, he's one of the best players in the game."

"Oh," she says, and goes back to glancing around the arena, taking it all in.

A few minutes later, she points to a guy seated a couple of rows away from us wearing Mario's jersey and says, "Look honey, what a coincidence - that guy's name is Lemieux, too."

True story.


No buys yesterday.

Today, dropping GT spots. They're 62-63, a losing play but not losing enough to be a steady fade. If I'm going to win in MLB (which I think is the most difficult sport to beat) I have to stay focused.
Too many systems and numbers cloud my brain.

WF: Col, Az
BB: NYM, LAD, Oak, Balt, WS, Pit

As I run each game through the various situations and scenarios I use for isolating plays that qualify in the different systems, I make a note (a green B) when I see one I want to come back and buy when I am finished 'capping. Today, like yesterday, I see no green "B" next to any game. Looks like an NBA day.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, none today either.

Updated charts:
GP: 52-39, +$1,818
WF: 156-185, +$3,121
BB: 101-79, +$1,938

My record: 53-55, +$937

Today...
WF has Oak, Pitt, Balt, WS, Az
GP has NYM game one, Minn
BB has WS, LAD, Atl, Sea

FYI, four teams are in the won-five-in-a-row spot.
All four are at home, home teams are 15-16, which makes it a winning fade because you always pay higher juice on winning teams at home. Today has Wash game one, SF, Col, Hou.
I wouldn't fade SF, but I'm taking a hard look at fading Houston and taking Chi WS, who are in the BB spot, plus the additional factor of WS vs lefties.

No buys for now.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday. Too many of those this week.
The goal is to win for the season, and to do that I've got to focus on what's working. WF lost again yesterday. They're still profitable but I don't use them and I don't have time this summer to keep capping stuff I don't use, and like I said it diverts my focus.

Both GP and BB surpassed the $2,000 mark yesterday.
I'm going to lean on those for the next couple weeks.

Updated charts:
GP: 54-39, +$2,011
BB: 103-80, +$2,063

My record: 53-55, +$937

Today:
GP has NYM, Cle
BB has Wash, Hou, Min, Atl game one

I have a clash with NYM in GP spot and Wash as BB; no play there.
I like Houston but I don't like the juice.

Buys:
Atl -115 (game one)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 53-56, +$822

Well, ya can't argue with the first day results of trimming down plays and focusing on just two situational spots as the posted plays went 4-2. I did a lousy job picking from amongst them though, using the Braves.
This week I'm going to make my life a little easier, and just play all posted spots, no picking and choosing.
I'm playing with house money so what the hell, let's have some fun and see if the two spots continue to pay off.

Updated charts:
GP: 55-40, +$2,031
BB: 106-81, +$2,248

Today:
GP has LAD
BB has Atl (gm1), LAD

Update: Unable to buy Mets this morning, line correction (pitching change?) Atl +240

Buys:
Atl +180 (correction +240)
LAD +115

 

[LineMovin]

RBD,
What is the record when GP and BB agree on play? What about differ?
Thanks bud. Greatly appreciate your time


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[RBD]

What a coincidence, that's on today's agenda - get the H2H (Head-to-Head) and M (match plays) records for these two spots. I figured if I'm going to use them exclusively for a while, I need some more data from within them.
I was keeping track of H2H and M using WF spots but not between GP and BB.

Doing the work later today, will share the results, hopefully we'll get a strong sub-category to use for future decision making.

I'll update in this post when I'm done.

Update: Here's what I found, only a few games qualified, but we might have something useful with matches:
H2H has GP with a 4-3 edge
M is 6-2

 

[LineMovin]

Appreciate the info sir!


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[RBD]

LM - You're welcome.

Recap: 0-2, -$200
Record: 53-58, +$622

On Day One of my commitment to play all spots for the entire week, I get two plays that qualify, and I pull The Grom and Darvish as opponents. Ugh.
They gave up a grand total of ONE run between them. Double Ugh.

Updated Charts:
GP: 55-41, +$1,931
BB: 106-83, +$2,048

Today:
GP has Cin, NYM
BB has Wash, Atl, Az, SD, KC, Tor, Det, Chi C

My commitment to play all games that qualify puts me in a bad spot today.
First, the systems produced NINE plays, and I don't like playing a lot of games. The more games you play, the more you give the edge back to the house.
Second, I don't really like any of these except Toronto.
I have a clash between the two systems as one says play NYM, the other says take their opponent, Atl.
H2H GP has a slight edge at 4-3.
It also gives SD as a play and they're in a spot I like to play AGAINST - a team that's won 5 in a row.
Teams that have won 5 in a row and are at home are 15-16, and since they're hot, and at home, you usually get a good price on the dog, making it a profitable fade. (They're an even better fade on the RD, 5-9.) Min in same spot, 5 in a row, at home.

Still, I made the commitment so I'll stick with it (though I'm not playing the Cubs, I don't lay -200 in MLB.)

Buys:
Cin +108
NYM -101
Wash +115
Az +132
SD -102
KC +240
Tor +112
Det +105

I feel like I'm whistling past the graveyard . . .

Update: Cincy had a 5 run lead, bottom of the 8th, and they gave up 5 runs.
I'm thinking, "If they lose this game after blowing a 5 run lead in the 8th it portends bad ju-ju for the rest of my games, right?" (Portends??!!)
They blew the lead, but put up three runs in the 9th and won. Therefore, by the rule of transformative properties (transformative properties??!! WTF are you babbling about?) it means I'll do well with the remaining games, right?
With a W already in my pocket from the first game, I can go 3-4 in the remaining games and still bank a profit on this dangerous day (or 2-5 if I can get a W with KC.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 6-2, +$580

Record: 59-60, +$1,202

I guess the W on the early game did "portend" good things to come.
Yes, I escaped with a 6-2 day, but it could have just as easily been 2-6. Four of the games won by only 1 run, and at least two of them - KC and Wash - were RD teams that saw the HM team have runners in scoring position in the bottom of the ninth. Quality bullpen work saved me.

I made nice bank, but it's not something I want to try again. Betting that many baseball games goes against every principle of discipline I've worked hard to instill in myself as a sports bettor. So, I'm dropping the "Play all spots for one week" strategy. I'm happy I survived it, but I'm not going to push my luck.

Updated charts:
GP: 56-42, +$1,938
BB: 113-84, +$2,820

Today:
GP has Sea, LAD
BB has NYM, SD, Pit, Sea

I have a match with Sea, qualifies as both spots, GP & BB.
When I have a match the record is 6-3.
But . . . Sea is in the 5-W's-in-a-row-and-at-home spot, which is a loser at 16-17.

I have a clash with LAD/SD, GP has LAD, BB has SD.
Head-to-head record is 4-4; no edges there.

I'm not about to bet on Pittsburgh in any situation, which eliminates that spot.

That leaves me with the Mets, who have been shutout in 4 of their last 8 games.

Nothing stands out so I'm taking the day off.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Taking the day off was the right move. The LAD (GP) and SD (BB) plays cancel each other out, making it a 1-2 day with the NYM win and losses on Sea and Pit, meaning I saved $100 by not sticking with the "Play every spot this week" strategy.

Updated charts:
GP 56-44, +1,738
BB: 115-86M +$2,820

H2H is 5-4 in favor of BB spots
M (matches) is 6-4

The 5-W's-in-a-row stat I track saved me $100 as it warned me off of buying Seattle.
HM teams in this spot are now 16-18; RD teams are 5-9.

Today:
GP has Boston
BB has Tor

Just two spots active today.
Give me an excuse to play AGAINST Baltimore and I'll take it every time, but -190 is too steep, I don't lay high $ m/l favs in MLB. Might look at them on the r/l.
Don't like the Boston spot.

Likely no buys for me today.