MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
I'm still not playing MLB correctly.
I bought all WF's on Wed, they go 2-6, -$215. So, I stay off them yesterday and they go 2-0, +$285.
They're now at +$2,356, and I'm down -$182 on the season.

It looks like they'll soon top 3k and the only way to get in on that is to play them ALL.
BUT . . . I just can't do it, goes against my nature of playing conservatively by picking spots.
BUT . . . that's not working either.
Something's got to give.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 19-16, +$417
WF: 53-52, +$2,641
GT1: 15-18, -$545
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:
WF has Chi C, Atl, Chi WS, Col, Balt
GP has St L, Wash, TB, Atl

Update: Adding Atl

Buys:
St L +110
Chi WS +125
Wash +120
Atl +110

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2, +$30
Record: 21-29, -$-152

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 21-18, +$447
WF: 54-56, +$2,361
GT1: 15-18, -$545
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:
GT has Balt/Oak Un 8, Cool/Az Ov 8
WF has Mia, Det, KC, NYM, Pit, Tor, Col
GP has KC

Back with buys if I make any.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays: GT 1-1, WF 4-3 + $230, GP 1-0

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 22-18, +$572
WF: 58-59, +$2,591
GT1: 16-19, -$555
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today . . .
GT has Hou/TB Un 8
WF has Det, Pitt, Tor, Mil, Tex, Balt, SD, Sea, NYM.

I'll post buys if I make any, but most likely will be an FCS day.

Buys:
Tor +115

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 22-29, -$37

Chose Toronto from the many choices yesterday because I also had a play AGAINST Atl in another play I'm charting. If that play keeps winning I'll start posting it.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 22-18, +$572
WF: 62-64, +$2,571
GT1: 16-20 (Ov 9-15, Un 7-5 ) -$670
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today . . .

GT has Overs in Tex/Minn 8' and Pit/SD 8
WF has Chi C, NYM, KC, Pit, Balt
GP has SF

Buys:

SF +110

 

[RBD]

Recap: SF game postponed, no plays.

Posted plays, GT split 1-1, WF 1-3, GP postponed.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 22-18, +$572
WF: 63-67, +$2,386
GT1: 17-21 Ov 10-16, Un 7-5) -$680
GT1: 0-1, -$110

Today:
GT has Tex/Min Ov 8', NYM/St L Ov 6'
WF has Chi C Gm 1, Hou, Det, Chi C Gm 2, St L, Balt
GP has SF Gm 1

One of the plays I'm charting but not posting until it has more data and shows value has a play AGAINST LAD in Gm 1, matching the WF spot. The play has a decent record, may buy this one.

Buys:
SF Gm 1 +115

Update, top of the first inning:
Never count your chickens, etc, and it is in Colorado so anything can happen, but . . .

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0.
Record: 23-29, +$78

Every bettor knows:
not to count your chickens before they hatch,
not to celebrate a win before the game is over,
not to risk jinxing your play.
But, ahead 10-0 in the first inning, I did exactly that, I tempted the fates, and posted:

"Update, top of the first inning:
Never count your chickens, etc, and it is in Colorado so anything can happen, but . . . "

And, I got screwed.

"Wait - SF won, how did you get screwed?" you ask?

But that is exactly what happened, I got screwed.
Think about it for a second - how can you get screwed if the play you liked won?
Think about, and if you come up with anything take a guess and post it in a reply.
Think about it - it'll come to you. I'm sure it's happened to almost all of us, at least once.

I'll post today's spots after at least one guess - right or wrong - comes in.

 

[Coach Woody]

You had the winner but forgot to buy it????

 

[PrisonMike]

Taking a stab..

Taking a stab..

Recap: 1-0.
Record: 23-29, +$78

Every bettor knows:
not to count your chickens before they hatch,
not to celebrate a win before the game is over,
not to risk jinxing your play.
But, ahead 10-0 in the first inning, I did exactly that, I tempted the fates, and posted:

"Update, top of the first inning:
Never count your chickens, etc, and it is in Colorado so anything can happen, but . . . "

And, I got screwed.

"Wait - SF won, how did you get screwed?" you ask?

But that is exactly what happened, I got screwed.
Think about it for a second - how can you get screwed if the play you liked won?
Think about, and if you come up with anything take a guess and post it in a reply.
Think about it - it'll come to you. I'm sure it's happened to almost all of us, at least once.

I'll post today's spots after at least one guess - right or wrong - comes in.

RBD - I haven't posted that many replies to your thread(s) but I still do read them and appreciate all the hard work you put into them each and every day. With regards to your question on how you got screwed....

Yes you won the bet. However, you said the WF matchup matched a play with selecting CHC 1st game but did not "buy" that game. Yes SF was +100 or +115 but the CHC game 1 play would have been closer to +170 with Kershaw going for LAD. Just a guess? The CHC game had a better value and had a chance to exploit that better value.

 

[drrage]

Bet an in game line that didn?t cover?


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[RBD]

Coach,

Oh sure, NOW you remind me!
Where were you yesterday when I needed some to remind to PUT THE BET IN?
Just kidding.
You guessed it. I usually buy first then post what I bought, not always but most of the time. Yesterday, I did my 'capping, circled the games I wanted to buy, came back here and posted the one I was recommending, and then . . . I don't know what happened. Got distracted I guess.
Mid-game it hit me - did you get your bets in?
I checked, and . . . no, I didn't.

Even worse, Mike, you're correct, too. Based on their recent play, I didn't see the Dodgers sweeping, so my plan was to buy Chi in the first game - if it won, bank it, if it lost, buy Gm2. A split would still pay nicely at the odds Chi was at.

I thought I made two buys, Chi and SF, had zero when I checked my accounts.

Drrage - I don't normally bet in-game stuff, the odds are too high. Sometimes I'll use them for a middle on an NBA total, but not in MLB.

Thanks Coach, Mike and DRrage for stopping buy for a visit.

Though I didn't buy it, yesterday's posted buy is counted in my record. If I hadn't bought a game that lost I would have counted it, too. It wouldn't be fair to say. "I know I posted a play that lost yesterday, but I forgot to buy it, so it doesn't count on my record."
Honesty is the best policy; always.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 23-18, +687
WF: 65-70, +$2451
GT1: 18-21, -$580
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Now, on to today's spots.

GT has Overs in SF/Col 10, Az/Mia 7', Mil/Phil 7'
WF has Hou, Phil, Chi C, KC
GP has Wash, TB

I liked the Wash spot until one of the other situational plays I chart (11-6 record) had a play AGAINST them.
TB maybe?

I did make three buys, based on other stats/likes/dislikes/gut feel, games that aren't part of any system I came up with.

Buys:
Tex +145 (list Yang)
Seattle -115 (list Kikuchi)
Oak -120 (list Ray)

 

[Coach Woody]

Hey RBD don't forget to bet them.:0008:mj07::mj07::mj07::mj07::mj07:

 

[RBD]

I bet them before posting today.

And double checked after posting!

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2, -$90
Record: 24-31, -$12

Dropped 2 of 3 non-system plays yesterday. Maybe stick to systems?

Was at 1-1 with a nice +145 dog in the bank, needed Oak to win and it would be a really nice day.
Up 3-2 in the top of the 8th. Bassitt had only thrown 90 pitches, but Melvin thinks, "I'm a manager, I have to manage! The book says pull the starter who's doing well and go to my setup man, Trivino, so that's what I'm gonna do!"
I'm 6 outs from the $. But . . .
Trevino walks the first man in five pitches. I'd yank him, but I can see staying with him for one more batter.
Next guy singles. Yank him now, right? Nah, why pull him when we're still winning?
After Trevino gifts Toronto with a wild pitch, it's tied at 3-3.

He's thrown more balls than strikes, he's blown the lead, NOW yank him, right?
Of course not, the game is still tied.
Next guy singles, 4-3. NOW yank him, right?
NOOOOOO!
WHAT F'ING GAME is Melvin watching, cause it sure as hell ain't the same one that I'm watching.
Trevino gives up ANOTHER hit, A's (and ME) now losing 5-3, and Melvin says, "Hmmm, I think I better pull this guy." Smooth move, Ex-lax.


Today:

GT has Overs in Det/Bos 8, Cle/KC 8
WF's: Hou, Phil, Tex, Det, Cle, Oak, Az, TB
GP has Phil

After watching these plays go 6-3 yesterday, I'm in the mood to buy them ALL.
But . . . no.

Was gonna jump on Philly but a non-posted system I'm working on has a play AGAINST Philly, and it's the same spot that saved me from buying Wash and losing as noted in yesterday's post (that spot is 12-6 now, with plays AGAINST Philly and Mia today. It matches with the WF play on Az, so I'm buying that one.)

GT went 3-0 yesterday and have climbed back to .500 overall, but I still don't trust them.

Buys:
Det/Bos Ov 8 -115
Hou +180
Det +180
Oak +120 (yes, I'm giving the A's a chance to screw me two nights in a row)
Az +120

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-3, -$20
Record: 26-34, -$32

Review:
Had a W with Det Ov and Hou at +180, sitting at +$280 for the day and looking good with Det +180.
Had the lead, bottom of the 8th, 2 outs, two strikes, just a strike and 3 outs away from the $ when disaster hits - another game where a manager stays with a reliever too long, and blows the lead.

It's simple - you bring a guy in late in the game for ONE purpose - to get outs.
If he fails to do so, bring in someone else - don't wait until the lead is gone.

Posted plays, GT's split 1-1 (-$10), GP 1-0 (+$105), WF's 5-3, (+$375) = +$470.
From yesterday's post:
"After watching these plays go 6-3 yesterday, I'm in the mood to buy them ALL.
But . . . no."
Plays bank $470. I drop $20.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 25-19, +$807
WF: 72-75, +$2,901
GT1: 22-22, -$290
GT2: 0-1, -$110
+$3,158

Today:
GT has Bos/Balt Ov 8', Minn/Det Ov 9
WF's: Wash, Cin, Phil, Tor, SF
GP has Balt, Cin, Sea

I have conflicts with some of the above and a play in my logbook that has Tex and NYY, both strong plays on my chart, so I'm not buying Sea or Wash.

Same system has a match with WF play SF so I'm buying that one.

GP's doing great but Balt screws me every time so I'm not using that one (also, just got screwed by Boston last night, not looking forward to it two nights in a row.)

GP/WF Matches (games that qualify for both spots) are just 6-7, so no buy on Cin for me.

Buys:
Phil +140
SF +130

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0, +$270
Record: 28-34, +$238

Review: Back in black, should be happy with a 2-0 +270 day, BUT, AGAIN, if I played all the WF spots I could have been 3-1, +$465. I keep hesitating on buying them all because I think the day that I do jump on it will be the day that they take a loss.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 27-20, +$949
WF: 76-76, +$3,366
GT1: 23-23, -$305
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: +3,750

GP spots inching towards +$1,000
WF breaks the $3,000 mark.
Anybody riding these?


Today:
GT has four Overs:
SD/SF Ov 7
Minn/Det Ov 8
Tor/Hou Ov 9
LAD/LAA Ov 8

GP has Mia

WF has Pit, SF, Oak, Mia, Tor, LAA

Buys:

Bos -138 (not from any of my systems, just an "I hate Baltimore" play. One of these days I'm going to win a game on or against these f'ers.)

SF +120 (matches WF and one of the systems I'm just tracking/not posting until it has more data, 13-11, +283)

 

[drrage]

Been riding WF for the past 10 days or so. Overall, doing well. Thanks for posting them!


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[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 30-34, +$458

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 27-21, +$849
WF: 79-79, +$3,441
GT1: 27-33, +$95
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: +$4,125

After a 4-0 Saturday, GT1 is now on the + side,
3 of the 5 systems are now profitable.

Today:
BP has Atl team total Un 3'
GT has three Overs:
Tor/Hou Ov 9
Col/St L Ov 7
LAD/LAD Ov 8'
WF has Balt, Wash, KC, Tor, Col, Sea, SF, TB, Atl
GP has Det, Atl

Waaaay too much to process with seemingly every game qualifying as WF.

I'm running some more numbers, will be back if I buy anything.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, good thing too because the circled plays did a Custer-at-Little-Big-Horn impersonation.

Record: 30-34, +458

Updated charts:
BP: 1-3, -$265
GP: 28-21, +$954
WF: 81-86, +$2,951
GT1: 28-25, -$235
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:
GT has LAA/Hou Ov 8, Tex/SF Ov 7
WF has Col

Update: Mia qualifies as WF

Not much to choose from today, no buys.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Record: 30-34, +$458

Updated charts:
BP: 1-3, -$265
GP: 28-21, +$954
WF: 81-87, +$2,851
GT1: 29-26, -$260
GT2: 0-1, -$110

Today:

GT has KC/Det Ov 8, Sea/LAD Ov 7
WF has Tex, Det, Oak, Tor, St L, LAA
GP has Cin, Det

I'm going to do a little more handicapping work on MLB before going back to looking at today's NBA.
I will continue to post the different situational plays for MLB if anyone is interested, but probably won't do much buying as I want to focus on the NBA reg season end, and playoffs.

 

[LineMovin]

What is current record for GT overs?
I saw they went 4-0 the other day so i faded them last 2 days and went 4-1 (they went 1-4)


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