MLB buys for 2021

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, W with Sea, L with Boston in the bottom of the 9th.
With WF spots, a split is okay, they're all Dogs so splits mean profit.

Record: 4-2, -$192

Posted plays went 1-4, good thing I didn't jump in and play all WF spots.

Charts:
BP 0-2, -$250
GP 9-7, +$316
WF 22-21, +$938
GT1 6-8, -$290
GT2 0-1, -$110

I'm doing a LOT of work with numbers, handicapping, tracking records, and totaling up $'s. If anyone ever sees an error please let me know so I can correct it. I use these charts to determine which games to buy, if they're inaccurate it could cost me.

Today's spots . . .

GT: Atl/Chi C Ov 8, Chi WS/Bos Ov 9

WF: Mia, Cle, KC, Minn, SD

GP: KC

Back with buys asap.

Update: My play was going to be KC because they are both WF & GP, the two categories I'm doing well with, but the game has been postponed. I won't settle for a second choice when I'm still a bit in the hole (and don't particularly like anything else). Pass for me tonight.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday. Good move because . . .
Posted plays went 1-4.

Updated chart:
BP: 0-2, -$250
GT1: 6-9, -$400
GT2: 0-1, -$110
GP: 9-7, +$316
WF: 23-24, +$758

At a point where it looks like I can start fading GT1 spots.

Today's choices:

BP: LAD TT Un 3'
GT: LAD/SD Ov 7
WF: Chi C, Balt
GP: KC

No buys yet. Will post if I do. FCS day for me.

 

[LineMovin]

What is current record of buy plays? 4-6 right? Says 4-2 above but correct loss

 

[RBD]

LM,
I just double-checked.
2-5, -$325 Tuesday.
Wednesday, 1-0 with SF, Sea was rained out.
That's 3-5, -$217.
Next buys, Bos & Sea, split, +$25
That's 4-6, -$192.
The -$192 is correct.
I'm not sure where 4-2 came from (I thought maybe I used the posted plays record for that day by mistake, but that's not right either. So, not sure what I was looking at.)

I likely would have caught it when I went to update my record after my next buys because I know I'm still under .500, not 4-2, but thanks for bringing it to my attention.

I'm tracking three different sports, MLB, FCS, NBA. Within those sports I'm tracking at least a dozen different plays, 7-8 of which I post publicly here. Between my logbook charts and posts there are going to be mistakes.
If you (or anyone else) see a mistake on the records of the plays I track please bring it to my attention.
Like I always say, those are what I use to make buying decisions on and if they're not accurate I'm only screwing myself and anyone who may be buying the play also.

 

[LineMovin]

All good brother. Your system caught my attention and was trying to follow from first post.
Good luck

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD thanks for the winner in college Football.

:00hour:00hour

 

[RBD]

LM,
Thanks again for the double check, much appreciated and needed.

Coach,
THANKS for letting me know you had the FCS play. I nailed that one. Unders in FCS system have done well.

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went 3-2. (I just noticed that I didn't say which game of the doubleheader the KC play was on. It was game 1, so, a loss.

GT Ov also lost, a good fade as the total record is 3-8 on Overs (1-4 last five I think, and the only one I faded was ... the one time it won.) Unfortunately, none of those plays today, but I'll be fading it all next week.

Got a W with the BP spot. BP stands for Best Play because historically I have good numbers on it over the years. But, since it was 0-2 this year I laid off it yesterday.

Updated charts for anyone interested.
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 9-8, +$216
WF: 25-24, +$993
GT1: 6-10, -$520, Ov 3-8, Un 3-2.
GT 2: 0-1, -$110

Today...

WF: Arizona, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Cincinnati
GP: Toronto, Seattle

I'm dying to make some plays, but with a negative balance I'm being extra careful. I have enough data now to pull the trigger on a few different spots, such as fading GT Overs, and buying WF's. I'm going to update my FCS charts now and then take another look at today's card to see if I can come up with a buy.
Will post if I do.

Good luck to all the Jackers with their plays today.

 

[Vicious]

RBD -
Wouldn't the BP Play have been on San Diego TT U3.5 yesterday? A winner either way on the Team Total last night, Dodgers or Padres. 2-0 Final.


San Diego Padres Schedule 2021
Petco Park - San Diego, CA
vs LAD 4/17/21

 

[RBD]

BP is: Home team TT Un after playing 12 or more innings the day before.
Subsets:
NL higher W % than AL,
higher W % when the previous day was a night game not a day game,
higher W % when it's the same two teams playing each other.

So . . . yes, SD was the play, not LA.

Though it was a W using either team, I'll correct my logbook because if SD is in the spot again this season I want to see a correct record at 0-1, and I don't want an incorrect record on the Dodgers at 0-1.
Nice catch, Vicious, thanks for having my back.

Banked my only play today with the Hawks (one of two "8 or >" spots I had today; both covered), but it's time to start putting some faith in, and making buys based on, the MLB data I've been gathering, WF is 3-1 today, including a nice dog at > $200 with Tampa Bay.

I'll be back tomorrow with a full accounting for the week, updated charts, tomorrow's spots, and MLB buys.

 

[RBD]

No buys for me yesterday.
Posted plays went 4-2, including some nice dogs with Az & SF (both at +135) and TB (+210.)

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 10-9, +$226
WF: 28-25, +$1,473
GT1: 6-10, -$520
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: +$919

My record: 4-6, -$192

With yesterday's winnings, WF's have surpassed the $1,000 mark just 2 weeks into the season.
I expect it reverse at some point, but I'll ride it all week long.

Time to ride the WF's and fade the GT's.

Short card today, only 7 games, but I do have a few spots.
WF: Bos +105, Sea +180
GP: Bos

Buys:
Bos +105
Sea +180

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD

I am with you with Boston.

(I also have Tampa Bay as an underdog today).

Looked at Seattle game and like it a little....but anything against the Dodgers right now scares me. I will see how the Boston game goes first before going with you on Seattle.....

Either way I love the WF plays.....only need to hit at 50% or even less to make money depending on the odds.,

 

[RBD]

Yup, ya gotta love the WF plays, Coach.

With the Bos win, I have a 1-1 split worst case, which as you pointed out means + $ with these spots.
And . . . I now have a free roll on a +180 dog later today.

If you're up on the season, buy Seattle.
If you're in the red, and haven't already bought Sea, give some thought to laying off it and bank the Bos $.

I committed to myself that I will buy all WF's and fade all GT's this week, so I'm going to stick with that (for today anyway.)
But if I hadn't already bought Sea I would probably lay off the spot, because I'm still down a little bit (the Bos W gets me to 5-6, -$87.)
For one thing, I don't like the run differential between the two clubs, and, as you noted, betting against LAD is not a strong position right now.
Having a lefty on the mound isn't going to help, LAD are 4-2 vs southpaws thus far.
And they're a perfect 10-0 in night games. Maybe the "due factor" will come into play.

 

[Coach Woody]

RBD. Great call on Seattle yesterday..l ended up playing it.

With Boston and Tampa yesterday. My underdog plays went 3-0 with Seattle last night.


Keep up the WF plays.....LOVE THEM...again. I love being right only half the time and still making money.

xstop and added up extras.....you can actually be under .500 and make money.:00hour:00hour

Lets stay above .500 however:mj07::mj07:

Get them again today. Im looking at Minnesota, Arizona, Pittsburgh as underdogs today.....

 

[RBD]

Glad to hear you got in on Seattle, Coach, nice dog $ on that one.

Recap: 2-0
Hit with Bos and Sea.
Bos qualified in two different spots, the two spots that have + $ balances, WF and GP, so it was easy to pull the trigger on that one.

Record: 6-6, +$93.00
Back in black.

Charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 11-9, +$331
WF: 30-25, +$1,758
GT1: 6-10, -$520 (Ov 3-8, Un 3-2)
GT2: 0-1, -$110 (Ov 0-1)
Total: 48-47, +$1309

Today . . .

Okay Pepe, we have a plethora of plays today.
I KNOW I said I was going to play all WF's and fade all GT's but I didn't think there would be this many in one day. I just got back to having a + balance yesterday, I don't feel like going action-crazy and betting eight spots today.
I'm going to pick and choose.

GT has Atl/NYY Ov 8', SF/Phil Un 8'
Atl is 0-1 in this spot this season.

WF has Sea, Cle, Atl, Balt, St Louis, Mil
Cle is 0-1 in this spot this season, Atl 0-1, Balt 1-0, Mil 1-0.

GP has St Louis, Tor, Chi C, Oak, Mil.
St L is 2-0 in this spot, Tor 0-2, Chi C 0-1

What to do, what to do . . .

GT Un has a winning record at 3-2, no buy on SF/Phil.

I want to fade GT's Ov (3-8) but the NY bats are due to wake up, I'm off this spot.

I usually avoid going back to the same play two days in a row, preferring to bank the unit I made and not press it, but Sea did me right last night, I'll ride them again today. (Plus, Sea is 5-1 as a WF.)

St Louis is 1-0 as a WF and 2-0 as a GP this year, and qualifies as both today, so I'm buying that spot.

UPDATE: Added buy.
WF's are doing very well, and Balt is 1-0 as a WF, but . . . I'm fading the heartbreaking bastards today.

Buys:
Sea +165
Mia -118
St Louis +115

 

[LineMovin]

Glad to hear you got in on Seattle, Coach, nice dog $ on that one.

Recap: 2-0
Hit with Bos and Sea.
Bos qualified in two different spots, the two spots that have + $ balances, WF and GP, so it was easy to pull the trigger on that one.

Record: 6-6, +$93.00
Back in black.

Charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 11-9, +$331
WF: 30-25, +$1,758
GT1: 6-10, -$520
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: 48-47, +$1309

Today . . .

RBD,
Looks like today?s plays were cutoff or maybe it was intentional lol

 

[RBD]

LM,
I usually post in two parts, I do the recap yesterday/look at today's spots,
then come back with buys after I do more research.
Today I just forgot to add "back with buys after I run some more numbers, check records, etc."

Buys have been added to today's post, and I may add more, still looking at numbers.

Good luck to you today.

 

[Coach Woody]

I will follow again...but nervous still to buy against the Trolly Dodgers

 

[LineMovin]

Does both GP and WF have Milwaukee? Surprised not a buy since 2 have it but there is probably more to it than that

 

[LineMovin]

Yesterday we only gave back Mondays profits. Looking forward to today?s plays.

GL

 

[RBD]

LM,
I may have to hire you to double check me on everything.
Thanks, AGAIN, for having my back.

Yes, Milw fit both spots,
yes I am buying any games that fit both spots that have a + balance,
no, I did not see your post until this morning and did not get a bet in on Milw.
And I needed it last night, for sure.

Recap: 0-3, -$318
Record: 6-9, -$225

Well, it was a short stay on the right side of the ledger for me, back in red ink today.

Seattle holds LAD to just 2 hits, 1 run. And . . . I get a 1-0 loss.

St Louis was six outs away from the money, Wainwright is pitching a gem, holding Wash to just one run.
Up 2-1, bottom 8, Shildt thinks, "I'm a manager, I have to manage, I'll yank the guy that's pitching great and go to my bullpen for the 8th and 9th."
He pulls Wainwright, puts in Gallegos.
Gallegos, walks the first guy.
HBP's the next guy.
Yank him before it's too late, right?
No.
Shildt pulls the guy that was pitching great, but stays with the guy that walked his first batter then hits the next guy with a pitch.
Next batter, single, tied now at 2-2.
Three batters, no outs, lead blown, yank Gallegos, right?
Nah, Shildt-head stays with him, he gives up a bases loaded walk, and I lose my second one run game of the day.
I ignored my decision to fade GT Overs and missed out on a winner in the NYY game.
Worse, I fade a profitable GP spot because of my love/hate affair with the Orioles and they screw my, too.

Had I stuck to my plan to play all WF's (2-4 yesterday) and fade GT Overs (1-0) I would have gone 3-4, for a small loss of $85, instead of 0-3, -$318.

Updated charts:
BP: 1-2, -$150
GP: 14-11, +457
WF: 30-29, +$1,573
GT1: 6-12, -$755
GT2: 0-1, -$110
Total: 51-55, +$1,015

Back with today's spots after I double check all the math above and 'cap the day's card.

UPDATE: FYI on an early game, Balt is a WF.
From now, up to and including Sunday, I'm going to do what I said I would do to start the week - play all WF's and fade all GT Overs, NO EXCEPTIONS (which means watch the O's screw me again today.)
Note - the O's also fit a play that I track but don't post, I mentioned it in an earlier post, it's 5-4, +$59 now.

GT has TB/KC Ov -105

WF has Balt, Pit (game 1), St L, Tex, Atl, Tor, Chi C
Balt is 2-0 in this spot, Pit 3-3, St L 1-1, Tex 1-1, Atl 0-2, Chi 1-1.

No GP or BP spots today.

Buys:
Balt +145
Pit +115
St L +150
Tex +160
Atl +120
Tor +118
Chi C +115
TB/KC Un -115