NASCAR - The Brickyard 400 @ INDIANAPOLIS

[Huckleberry]

Through POCONO #2:
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 1-9 +6.5 units
Overall Year: 9-109 +70 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup Qualifying: 1-0 +7 units
Winston Cup/Week: 4-1 +13.78 units
Year: 65-51 +49.81 units

Total for the week: +27.28 units
Yearly Combined: +119.81 units

This week is going to be pretty basic for me, as I really look for the guys that were strong last week to be strong again at Indy. The 40 team really seems to be getting back on track after their very average performance for about 8 races through the months of May and June, and I'm not going out on a limb here by any means, but I really believe he is the car to beat this week.

There are about 10 others of course, including the 99 car of Jeff Burton who really surprised me with how good his car was all day long.

 

[Huckleberry]

Well guys, let's get started looking at who I see as the contenders for this upcoming Brickyard 400. The write-ups will be much shorter this week, as I am basically looking at the same group of drivers as last week, and won't be including the starting/finishing spots (since it's much easier to look up annual race results).

Since they first ran the Brickyard 400 in 1994, there haven't been any surprises as far as Victory Lane is concerned. Well, maybe Ricky Rudd winning in the 10 car was a bit of a surprise, but I don't remember too much of the 1997 season from a handicapping perspective. I can only assume it was surprising, as Rudd was both the driver/owner of that #10 team at the time, and we all know how much of a challenge that has been over the years.

Here are the past winners of this race:
1994: #24 Jeff Gordon
1995: #3 Dale Earnhardt
1996: #88 Dale Jarrett
1997: #10 Ricky Rudd
1998: #24 Jeff Gordon
1999: #88 Dale Jarrett
2000: #18 Bobby Labonte
2001: #24 Jeff Gordon

As we all can see, the winners here were/are in the elite class of teams/drivers in Nascar. As we dig deeper into not only the winners, but the top 5 finishers as well, you will see that the same names pop up year after year. While we have seen many different drivers and teams winning races the last few years, I think that by concentrating on the top teams this week like we did last week, that we will once again be in Victory Lane.

Let's start by looking at the 2 car:

#2 RUSTY WALLACE
Rusty looked to be a possible contender last week, as he seemed to have a pretty fast car. However, we all saw his day end very early when he slammed the wall on the very first lap. However, I look for the 2 car to rebound this week, as his record at Indianapolis is very impressive over the years. Rusty has managed to finish in the top 10 of every race here but one, when he finished 38th due to engine failure back in 1997. Out of those 7 top 10 finishes, 4 of them were top 5's including 2 runner-up finishes. Rusty's starting positions have been surprisingly mediocre here, managing to paltry 21.75 average start. He did have a very nice lap time while testing up there earlier this month however.

Going to need better than the 12 to 15 range that is out there now, but I like him to rebound, so I'll have an eye on him as far as matchups go.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Next 3 drivers.....

Next 3 drivers.....

#6 M. MARTIN
Well, I can say to a certainty that I was dead wrong about this car last weekend, as Martin was never a factor. It was very surprising to see from a team that has been running so well lately, but perhaps the contsantly changing track conditions hurt his car more than others. Again though, it's no surprise that Martin has done very well at Indy over the years. He's had a couple of rough finishes that last 2 years, (22nd and 43rd), but managed 4 top 5's with one 6th place finish in the 6 races before that.

I'm not sure which car they are taking this week, as Martin is always trying to change things up. After all, they didn't take the car that gave them a 2nd place finish in the first Pocono race of this year, but a brand new one instead. I have loved Martin's consistency this year, so I will no doubt be looking at him again this weekend. Depending on the information gathered, it may be more from a matchup standpoint than an odds to win standpoint, but the 6 should rebound this week and get himself a nice top 10 or better finish.

#8 D. EARNHARDT, JR.
To say he had himself a rough race last week is an understatement. But I do have to mention that I was just AMAZED at how quickly they got that car's body work all fixed up and back out. Jr. managed to finish the race and pick up a few positions as well. Of course, there isn't much race history at Indy for Jr., as he's only raced in the last 2 events.
The 8 managed a 10th place finish last year, and a 13th place finish in 2000. While Jr.'s chances were ended very early last week, he really seemed quite unhappy w/ the car before the race, so it's anyone's guess as to whether he would have had a good finish. I look for the 8 to be right around the 10-20th positions this week. With this track being so similar to Pocono, I just don't see much changing here with such a quick turnaround. Their test sessions were unimpressive as well, so at this point, I will be looking to play against the 8 in this race.

#9 B. ELLIOTT
Can "Awesome Bill" make it two in a row this week? Obviously, the odds are against that happening, but it really isn't that far fetched. The 9 has sprinkled good finsishes here in the past around some average ones, but has always been pretty competetive. His worst finish is 23rd in 1999, and he has accumulated 5 top 10's in the race's 8 year history. So if last week's run is any indication, there is no reason to believe that he won't be good this week. Of course, we now run into a problem, as there is absolutely no value that I've seen on him this week. In addition, we have to assume a top 10 starting position (at least), so if anyone is interested in playing Elliot this week, it's should be done before qualifying. Then again, if one takes a quick look at the test speeds in preperation for this race, Bill was quite average, as was his teammate. Therefore, at this point, I will roll the dice and wait on the 9, but if anyone doesn't care about test speeds and likes his chances to win again, then I would play him before qualifying.

GLTA

 

[sandwedge]

in the busch kroger 200 ron hornaday looks like value at 15-1. he's finished top 5 in four out of the last five races, led a bunch of laps and could have easily won 2 of them.

he also won at this track in 2000 (which was his last win in the busch series)

 

[Dr. Doom]

if one takes a quick look at the test speeds in preperation for this race

Huck,

Where do you find that info?

Keep up the good work. I like the format for your writeups.

 

[Huckleberry]

Sandwedge....I think you might have something there. 26 has really been running well lately. Thanks for the tip......

Doom....(great name! ) The info for test sessions at Indy is much more readily available then for any other track besides the likes of Daytona or Vegas for instance. This site should have everything you need.

Brickyard Info

Continuing.......

#10 J. BENSON
Really not much to say here guys, but I just wanted to mention that Nadeau raced this car to the 3rd fastest practice time earlier this month. While there are many factors that would make one discount test session times, it's still a bit of information for those who believe it has some merit. If so, there could be some qualifying matchup opportunities out there in the coming days.

#11 B. BODINE
Whatever......

#12 R. NEWMAN
I guess Ryan and his engine builders proved Mr. "Expert" Dallenbach that there was a method to their madness using that gear ratio last week. He lasted the entire race and managed a very impressive top 5 finish. Newman's team is bringing a brand new race car to Indy, so I don't have the luxury of knowing how good it is, but if the 12's short history is any indication, we can safely assume another top 5 starting position come qualifying. Newman took the 02 Alltel Ford off the grid in 5th last year, but managed only a 31st place finsih in his first Brickyard. While I don't doubt that this team will be good, the odds out there now make him a no play for me at this point. And even more so if he qualifies like he usually does.

#17 M. KENSETH
The 17 had what can be called an uneventful but successful run at Pocono last week, posting an 8th place finish. Besides mechanical failures, that is pretty much what we have been accustomed to expect from this team up to this point. Kenseth has done absolutely nothing in his 2 races at the Brickyard, posting finishes of 42nd last year, and 26th in 2000. On top of that, his qualifying runs have been well below average, with starting spots of 23rd and 41st respectively. However, there is room for optimism for the 17 this week, as they managed to post not only the fastest time in testing, but also a track record. They were fast in both race and qualifying trim, so Kenseth might me someone to watch both this Saturday and Sunday. Nothing of any value out there at this point, so I'll be waiting to play him if I do. But I will be looking at 17 as far as qualifying and race matchups.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Continuing.......

Continuing.......

#18 B. LABONTE
I know I said that I wouldn't include him in write-ups until he got a top 10 finish, but come on. He's my boy, he cashed a nice +160 matchup for me, and he actually showed some signs of life last week. Actually, I had to include him because he has been quite impressive at Indy over the years. Since I am always looking for "live dogs" so to speak, the 18 could be a possibility. A remote one, but a possibility nonetheless. Prior to last year's 15th place finish, the 18 had finishes of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd. Of course, that doesn't mean much now, as we all know how bad they have been this year. Basically, I'll be keeping an eye out and won't be afraid to take +160 again if it is offered in a matchup.

#19 J. MAYFIELD
I think we are done seeing matchups with Marlin vs. Mayfield matchups for a while.

#20 T. STEWART
This team pretty much held serve at Pocono, getting their usual ho-hum top 10 finish. Their consistency on what are termed "flat tracks" cannot be overlooked, so they should be a player come this weekend. However, it's now apparent that the Pontiac simply does not respond to traffic very well at all, as you simply don't see the 20 passing anyone unless it's on pit road. Thinking along those lines makes playing the 20 very tough for me, unless it's a much shorter flat track. I seriously doubt that I will have a wager on TStew to win this weekend, but I will surely look to play him in the right matchups. Before last year's 17th place finish, the 20 had his typical 5th and 7th place finishes in the two previous years.

#24 J. GORDON
I don't know about anyone else out there, but I sure can't wait until this guy wins a race. At least so I can talk about something else for once when doing this. There isn't much to say that everyone doesn't already know. He's won 3 races here, and should be good. However, the 24 still gets WAY TOO MUCH respect from the books as evidenced by him being the favorite and co-favorite at most places right now. No thanks. On to Watkins Glen and +200. (Me talking like this means he wins this week...watch )

GLTA

 

[Dr. Doom]

Huck,

Thanks for the site link. I must be missing something though because I couldn't find any info about test times there.

Are there other sites that show test times that aren't track specific?

 

[Huckleberry]

Sorry about that Dr.........by clicking on more news it take you to 2001. Really helpful. Try these.

July 9 #1

July 9 #2

July 9 #3

July 10 #1

July 10 #2

July 10 #3

Those were all the articles for the first two days. The articles for the last 2 days of testing can be found by typing in id=# in the url.

They are:
203
204
205
209
210
211

Let me know if you have any problems with it.

 

[Huckleberry]

Sorry....

Sorry....

Forgot to answer your second question. This is the best site I know of for all kinds of various information. Don't know if you know about it or not, but it's very popular.

Nascar Info

 

[Dr. Doom]

Those links worked well. Thanks again.

I am familiar with that 2nd site. They have a lot of info available, but I don't recall seeing test times there for any races. I must admit that I have never looked too hard though.

 

[Huckleberry]

You're welcome Doom.....I'm sure you'll find the testing info on that last link I gave you, but if not, there is a link to it on the left hand side about halfway down the page.


#26 T. BODINE
It seems as if Haas/Carter Motorsports knows how to set cars up to get around this track no matter who's driving them. This team sat on the pole last year w/ Jimmy Spencer behind the wheel, and also had 2 top 10 starting spots (including a front row start for DW in his last year) in the 66 car. In addition, the 26 car was 3rd fastest during testing here. Something to think about for qualifying.

#28 R. RUDD
Like the 6 car last week, I was way off on this team's expected performance at Pocono. They seemed to have continuous handling problems last week and ran between 5th and 12th all race long, never contending near the front. Are these off-track distractions concerning Rudd's future finally going to take it's toll on their performance? It's probably too soon to tell at this point, but if the 28 has another mediocre run at a track where they (both the 28 and Rudd) have had success, it might be time to look elsewhere as far as race wins. If the last 2 years at Indy w/ Rudd behind the wheel are any indication, it's not going to be a very good weekend. Rudd came home 39th last year, and 21st in 2000, but I do look for them to improve on those finishes (big stretch huh?). Going to wait and see how the car performs on the track this weekend before making any decisions.

#29 K. HARVICK
It sure seems that the win at Chicagoland has given this team a ton of confidence, as they head to Indy with 3 straight top 10 finishes and an average finish of 8.2 in the last 5 races. At the right price of 30-1 or higher, I may have to consider him for the win the way he is running right now, but more than likely, I will be taking a close look at the 29 as far as matchups go. This sport really is amazing, as 3 races ago, this guy was a complete bet against at almost every opportunity. Let's see if they can continue this little 2nd half resurgence.

#32 R. CRAVEN
It also seems as if car owner Cal Wells has a team capable of putting a decent car together at the Brickyard. With finishes of 9th and 10th the last 2 years, (last year w/ Craven and even more surprising w/ Scott Pruett in 2000), I'll be keeping an eye out on this team for some value in the matchups. Again, this is a big horsepower track, so a Yates engine is a good start to what can hopefully be a decent finish.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

#40 S. MARLIN
I know I'm not finding a diamond in the rough here by any means, but this is the driver that I truly believe will win this race. Besides the fact that they look to be back to their earlier dominant form, there are those little intangibles that make me like him even more. As Crony brought up, the last 4 winners of this race have gone on to win the title. In addition, the last 4 point leaders going into the Brickyard 400 have seen themselves in Victory Lane at the end of the day. That surely is some trivial stuff, however, it has worked for me in the past, and I simply really like the way the car ran last week even though they couldn't seal the deal with a win. I would love to get more than the 10-1 that is available right now, so I will most likely wait until after qualifying or maybe after the first practice. Then again, I may bet some now and some later.

#41 J. SPENCER
You would think that sooner or later being the 40's teammate would be some kind of benefit, however I'm incuding the 41 here for a possible top 5 starting spot. We know Spencer sat on the pole last year, and even though that was with another team and another car, Spencer backed up his propensity for getting around this track quickly with the 6th fastest time during testing. A definite sleeper for a solid starting position on Sunday.

#48 J. JOHNSON
Am I mistaken or have we seen 2 straight mediocre finishes for this team? You know it's saying something when a rookie team has been a little bit of a disappointment with 2 consecutive 15th place finishes. Their struggles last week were somewhat surprising though, as Johnson was just thrilled with his car after the final practice. I'll just attribute that to the length of the race and the ever changing track conditions, however, as we have seen, The Brickyard is no place for rookies to steal the spotlight. I doubt seriously to have him in my win set, but as always, his consitency demands a weekly look at the right matchups. Assuming Marlin runs like I think he will, this may be the race that drops the 48 out of the title hunt if he doesn't finish well. A finish outside the top 20 would really hurt IMO.

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

I might have to rethink my feelings concerning the 8 car now.............Jr. is usually pretty straight forward concerning his car from what I know.

Dale Jr. Info

 

[Huckleberry]

Based on some solid information coming from the #2 stable, I've made my first bet for this weekend.

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS
2 R. Wallace ov 15 M. Waltrip -110 5 units

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Time to wrap it up:

#88 D. JARRETT
Based upon Jarrett's ridiculous record at Pocono, it comes as no surprise that he also has been very good over the years at Indianapolis. Jarrett is one of only 2 drivers to have multiple wins at the Brickyard 400, and looks to be another very strong contender this Sunday. Along with those 2 wins, 88 also has pair of 3rd place finishes. A point of concern is the fact that Jarrett has qualified no worse than 6th over the past 5 races, so waiting to play him could be a problem. But, I'll go with the hope that his mediocre test times show up again on Saturday, giving me more value with a car that should see the top 5.

#97 K. BUSCH
This car backed up it's top happy hour time last week by posting a very impressive 2nd place run. I've liked this kid all year long, as it is obvious that he has all the skills and car necessary to run up front week in and week out. But just when I'm comfortable enough to play him both to win and in matchups, he throws up a 30th place finish and messes me all up again. I'm still messed up, but the 97's last 3 races have not been, therefore, I will look to include him this week. He had a rocket in testing here, so I'm going to have decide how much stock to put in that, as he could be starting in the top 5. Currently, I've seen as high as 15-1 on Busch. Oh, I must also mention that he came from 34th last year to finish in the top 5.

#99 J. BURTON
Another one of the Jack Roush cars that was awful good last week. As I mentioned previously, I convinced myself that 99 would have won the race had he not cut a tire down. I will be on him this week but will wait hoping to get more than the 20-1 currently available. Of course, if for some reason he runs Kirk Shelmerdine lap times during practice, I will not be including him. He's only had 2 good finishes here (6th in 2000, and 5th in 1999), so that's why I really want to hold out on a great price.

Let's get to Victory Lane!

GLTA

 

[Huckleberry]

Added some more qualifying wagers and decided to play the odds to win the pole.

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS
97 Busch ov 48 Johnson +117 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 15 Waltrip +132 3 units
17 Kenseth ov 32 Craven +107 7 units
29 Harvick ov 19 Mayfield +112 4 units
2 R. Wallace ov 15 Waltrip -110 5 units (earlier)

ODDS TO WIN THE POLE
97 Busch To Win Pole +1400 1 unit
2 R. WallaceTo Win Pole +1600 1.5 units
17 Kenseth To Win Pole +2200 2 units
41 Spencer To Win Pole +2400 1 unit
40 Marlin To Win Pole +3000 0.5 units
26 T. Bodine To Win Pole +2500 1 unit
12 Newman To Win Pole +700 1 unit (break even)

Going for the nice hit with 17 to get there. While he hasn't shown any indication of being a pole threat on any superspeedway, it was made public that they spent much of their testing time working on a great qualifying setup. They did find something, as Kenseth posted the best lap (although it was when the track was relatively cool) of any test session.
I would have liked to play Johnny Benson as well, but he was part of the field at +400, and even though the field offers over 30 cars, I decided to pass.

GLTA

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Huck. I played 2 of yours plus:

(int) Rusty(-103) vs Stewart

 

[Huckleberry]

Where did you find that Rusty ov Stewart qualifying matchup if you don't mind me asking?

Let's win 'em Chucky!

Thanks.

 

[djv]

Hey guys i would be alittle careful with the 2 over the 20 match. i now 20 is haveing tough time. But not that 2 is setting the world on fire.