NASCAR - The Brickyard 400 @ INDIANAPOLIS

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Intertops, Huck.

 

[Huckleberry]

I guess that's what (int) meant huh? Duh......No wonder I never saw that one.......I have to move before I can play there. That stinks. Thanks for the reply Chucky.

DJV......the 2 ov 20 is a qualifying matchup, so there is more of an edge there than there would be if it was a race matchup. I, like you, would not bet that if it was for the race......way to close.

 

[Myron]

Sandwedge I wouldn't read too much into Hornaday's success of late. Indy Park is a short track and Hornaday has struggled at short tracks. In fact he was 30th or worse in his last 3 short track races. The best short track racer in Busch by far and away is Jason Keller. Also can't discount Greg Biffle and Mike McLaughlin for a longshot.

On a different note, what a bizzarre schedule for that race. It looks like race matchups will probably only be up for about an hour so there will be little time to bet them. Also 200 laps on a .625 mile track means only about 130 miles of racing. If a driver starts worse than 20th or so then forget it.

Saturday, August 3, 2002
11:30 a.m. Rookie Meeting / Drawing for Qualifying
12:30 p.m. - 2:30 p.m. Practice
4:30 p.m. Qualifying (2 laps, all positions) Cars will be impounded 6:00 p.m. Haulers Exit Infield
6:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m. Final Adjustments to cars
6:30 p.m. Driver / Crew Chief Meeting
7:30 p.m. Driver Introductions
8:00 p.m. Kroger 200 (200 laps)

 

[Myron]

Adding 2 units on Scott Wimmer e/w at Bet365 (20/1 odds). Wimmer has 5 consecutive top 5 finishes on short tracks.

 

[Huckleberry]

I think sandwedge made some valid points concerning Hornaday Myron......his 4 top 5's (besides 21st at Daytona) have been very impressive lately, and he did win this race at IRP in 2000 like he said.

15-1 is well worth it for someone running so well going somewhere they've won at before.........on the same note, I've always liked Wimmer too........he's one of the raciest guys out there at 20-1 every week it seems. And since Keller and Biffle are not bettable at 3 and 4-1, I think those are the right plays to make. Let's give it a shot:

BUSCH ODDS TO WIN
26 R. Hornaday +1400 2 units
23 S. Wimmer +2200 1 unit

GLTA

 

[Myron]

Biggest line movements at you know where are on Hornaday, Wimmer and McLaughlin

 

[Huckleberry]

Yeah....wow! What happened there? Would never play Hornaday at 8-1, that's for sure. Luckily, 5dimes still have some nice value.

First race play. This was the number I was looking for.

ODDS TO WIN
12 R. Newman +2000 1.5 units

GLTA

 

[sandwedge]

well we all know where ron hornaday is going to finish since we are talking about him so much....up the track

myron, maybe just a definitional difference of "short track", but after a quick and admittedly cursory review for hornaday last 3 race short track performance i show :

(busch series only)
2002 Bristol 38th (rear end failure)
2001 RIR 11th
2001 Bristol 27th

the #26 car finished 31st at 2002 bristol when lyndon amick was still behind the wheel.

imo,we should not read too much into ron's recent short track rec as he has not started on any short tracks (i am defining RIR,bristol,memphis, and IRP as the busch short tracks, <1mile) in the #26. as far as past perfomance with other teams i would give a bit more weight to his 2000 win here than i would to his breaking down in someone else's equipment (he also won a race here at IRP when he was racing craftsman trucks). lol, guess i am having my cake and eating it too here as i am saying discount his poor performance with past teams, but consider his wins

admittedly rh is not the most likely winner (keller,biffle) but maybe he can be competitive and totally piss me off with a second place finish the biggest concern about hornaday is that he probably needs to quailfy well here to have a good shot, and i'm not at all certain that he will secure a top 10 spot in the grid.i definitely would pass at 8-1 though.

if it were a concrete track wimmer would be a lock.

no happy hours this week with busch or the truck series so it may be more difficult than usual to pick out who is dialed in for the the race.

btw, on a marginally related rant, it annoys me off that nascar gouges $$ out of its loyal fans for their previously free (which was correctly priced) "racecast" coverage of practice, qualifying and the race. all of the other premiere series (formula1,cart, IRL) provide extensive live coverage of everything for free. i would go ahead and let them skin me for some $$ anyway just to have it, but i have a dinosaur computer running win95 and the racecast software requires win98 or better.

glta

 

[Myron]

I agree Sandwedge. I think we should have a community account that we can all use here at Madjacks.

 

[Huckleberry]

A lot of good points there Sandwedge........and hey, if Hornaday wins, you gotta go out and hook yourself up with a new computer....Win95?? Even though I agree w/ you about Nascar charging, you really can't compare it's popularity w/ the open wheel series in the US. They knew people would pay......it's brutal, but they just knew it.

A few more race plays.....

ODDS TO WIN
40 S. Marlin +1500 3 units - He goes out dead last tomorrow, so if the sun beats on the track, his starting position may not be that good, but I had to take this price.

MATCHUPS
29 Harvick ov 12 Newman +133 3 units - Great price the way 29 is running right now. He goes out much earlier tomorrow so there is a ton of value here IMO.

 

[Huckleberry]

Adding one more. VERY TOUGH to win 2 in a row, but no way he should be 30-1 as good as he looks right now.

ODDS TO WIN
9 Bill Elliott +3000 1.5 units

GLTA

 

[sandwedge]

qualifying weather forecast

time/forecast/air temp/chc of rain/humidity

10AM.... Partly Cloudy ............83?....... 0%........68%
11AM.... Partly Cloudy ............86?....... 0%........63%
12PM.... Isolated T-Storms.......88?....... 30%....... 59%
.1PM..... Isolated T-Storms.......89?....... 30%........57%

the partly cloudy makes the track temp a little more difficult to predict as you can't know who if any will have the clouds over the track during their run. and of course if it rains it will be really wild.

i thought i read somewhere that there would be only 1 lap for qualifying but i can't find it and the brickyard website page's schedule says 2 laps per driver. it may have been a different race i was thinking about on the 1 lap. if it were only 1 lap it should take not more than 2 hours to qualify.

 

[Huckleberry]

Well, that should be it. Last place threw up their stuff today so this should be it for qualifying. BTW, I posted as soon as I could......

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS
9 Elliott ov 97 Busch -130 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 40 Marlin Even 4 units
41 Spencer ov 44 Nadeau -150 3 units
43 Andretti ov 45 Petty -140 3 units

-Earlier plays-
21 Sadler ov 44 Nadeau -125 4 units
97 Busch ov 48 Johnson +117 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 15 Waltrip +132 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 15 Waltrip Even 2 units
17 Kenseth ov 32 Craven +107 7 units
29 Harvick ov 19 Mayfield +112 4 units
2 R. Wallace ov 15 Waltrip -110 5 units

GLTA

NOTE: Noticed that these prices have moved drastically. FWIW, I would only play 9 ov 97 at this point.

 

[djv]

Huck lots of work and lots of info. Thanks. Hope to join you boys a little more starting next week.

 

[Myron]

Here is what I'm looking at for value plays.

AT WSEX:

15 over 8 Even?? 15 has beaten 8 in qualifying many times in a row including a 2nd place start for 15 last week. 15 was -125 before practice and now up to even. Why? Because the 8 was 4th fastest in practice to 15 being 7th fastest? Less than 1/2 second slower??

I don't get it but I'll grab Waltrip in this one.

5 +110 over 4. Terry has been better of late while Skinner just sucks in qualifying. The 2 were separatd by less than 1/2 second in practice so I put no weight on that. I'll take Labonte in this one.

44 +120 over 21. Nadeau is a better qualifier and they weren't separated by that much in practice. If you go back you'll see that Nadeau almost always is faster in qualifying than in practice while the opposite is true with Sadler. Also Sadler has qualified horribly at the Brickyard in the past.

45 Even over 36. Just a hunch here but I expect the Petty cars to qualify well in this race. Also Schrader is hit and miss.

AT You know who:

24 +115 over 28.

Rudd has never impressed me as a qualifier. Gordon has struggled of late but owns the Brickyard. Difference in practice times was negligeable (179.3 for Rudd vs. 178.5 for Gordon). Gordon has a better qualifying spot and I expect Gordon to be close when it comes down to it.

15 +115 over 17. Very strange. Waltrip is so much better as a qualifier than Kenseth. He was also a bit faster in practice. So why is he an underdog? I don't get it. It seems the books (or bettors?) are shying away from Waltrip this week and I'm not sure why.

88 -125 over 99. I really don't care that the 99 was faster in practice. Jarrett always qualifies well at these tracks and in the end he'll be close to the pole. Jeff Burton will be mid pack again as usual.

 

[Huckleberry]

Looks like one of us will be happy Myron....FWIW, I think all these huge moves are based on the Q order.......for instance, 8 goes out very early (3rd) while 15 goes out very late (40th). That's also the main reason the price has moved so much on Kenseth/Waltrip.

Players are anticipating it getting warmer as the afternoon wears on, causing the track to get a somewhat slicker.

GL to you.

 

[Myron]

I never really considered that Huck. Thanks. Sometimes the opposite happens too, that the track gets a little better as rubber gets put down on the track. We'll see.

Having said that, the 8 vs. 15 is the one matchup I posted that I'm least confident of. The 88 over 99 is the one I'm most confident of. Also I think your matchup of 8 over 40 is almost a sure thing. I can't bite at -175 (yes that's how much it moved) though.

 

[sandwedge]

kenseth was also very fast in testing 2 weeks ago.

one thing, half a second works out to about 2 mph difference and can be fairly signficant, but since you can't always assume that qualifying will go exactly like practice it may not be that big of a deal. you also can't be sure which drivers were in "qualifying trim" and which were working more on race setup.

i wish nascar would emulate IRL and post each drivers' second fastest lap also, it would give a little bit better feel for who is consistently faster and not just who had the fastest lap.

 

[Huckleberry]

Yeah Myron...that's basically the reason these things have moved so much. But like you said.......it could go the other way, with the sun being out early morning and heating the track for the beginning, while the clouds roll in and cool it down some for the later guys.
Also, this is just me, but I wouldn't lay 75 cents the worst of a number even if I had the results in front of me. I'm glad you aren't playing that one at -175. Value was gone at -130 IMO.

Last one. Going w/ a combination of things things here, including momentum, experience, being 3 tenths faster today, and time going out tomorrow.

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS
9 Elliott ov 12 Newman -130 3 units

-Earlier plays-
9 Elliott ov 97 Busch -130 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 40 Marlin Even 4 units
41 Spencer ov 44 Nadeau -150 3 units
43 Andretti ov 45 Petty -140 3 units
21 Sadler ov 44 Nadeau -125 4 units
97 Busch ov 48 Johnson +117 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 15 Waltrip +132 3 units
8 Earnhardt, Jr. ov 15 Waltrip Even 2 units
17 Kenseth ov 32 Craven +107 7 units
29 Harvick ov 19 Mayfield +112 4 units
2 R. Wallace ov 15 Waltrip -110 5 units

GLTA

 

[Dr. Doom]

'I think all these huge moves are based on the Q order'

What site has the Q order up the earliest? Do they usually draw for the order at the same time at every track?