NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

Last year was my first year trying this sport and it was the only sport to beat me. It was a learning process and I didn't play smart, made some bad moves. I plan to fix that this season.

Buy:
Brook/Char Un 230


LeBron James has been announced as the winner of the AP Athlete of the Year award. He is one of only three men (Tiger Woods and Lance Armstrong) to have won the award four times, and only the second man to have done so with two balls.

 

[tt boy]

got it @ 232.5

 

[tt boy]

that was easy :0074

 

[RBD]

Yeah, tt, that was an easy one. Thanks for letting me know you were on it it, too.

To all - be cautious if you're wagering on my buys in the NBA. It's my worst sport.
I don't like it, and rarely watch it, which puts me at a disadvantage handicapping it.

I like the challenge of trying to beat it though, so I'll give it a try, and work harder to find something that is profitable. I only bet it one year, last season, and lost a few units. I'm trying to learn from mistakes I made then. One of the mistakes was I bet too many games while working to isolate a situation I can profit off of, so I'm limiting buys to start this season.

Record 1-0.

I came in to post a buy because NO/Phx Ov 222 grades out as a play for me, but then I decided to check recent history, and saw that both teams have gone Under in all three of their games this season. And none were really close to 222 (212, 209, 193 for NO, 208, 209, 216 for Phnx. That's an avg of just 207 per game, 15 pts fewer than tonight's #.)

History doesn't always repeat, and today's a new day with a new opponent for them, but because of the recent #'s I'll sit it out unless the line drops a few pts. Will post if I buy it.

 

[RBD]

I think the odds makers still look at Brooklyn as the three point chuckers from last season, and haven't adjusted to Nash's style of play yet. This play (a situational spot calling for a play on the Under) is only charted at 6-5 in my logbook, but three of the six W's have come from overinflated Brooklyn lines, and I think that's what we have again tonight.

Update: adding a play

Buys:
Atl/Brook Un 240
Mem/Bos Ov 216'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Spit 1-1, easy W with Bos Ov, close loss with Brklyn Un, missed by just 40 pts.
Record:2-1

A little excited today, I may have something I can use.
My base handicap is to match my # vs the books, if I get a 5 pt differential I chart it, and track W/L record.
I also have 4-5 other situational plays I track. Yesterday I looked at every day of games thus far this season, comparing the plays kicked out by all plays I track and I noticed that when I have a match between two situations (they both kick out the same spot as a play) I have a 6-1 record.

Then I went to yesterday's plays and saw they both said take Bos Over - that's why I came back with an update and added the play here.

It's 7-1 now. This doesn't mean it will continue, it may level out, revert back to .500, but this is exactly what I look for while doing stat work. It's like a miner panning for gold, sifting through the dirt, and then you find that one shining nugget of gold that makes all the hours of work worth the effort.

So, for an experiment, I'm going to buy and post each of these "Match" plays for the next week, and see what comes of it.

I'll be back later with any buys, after I'm done 'capping.

Update: Got two. Like most of my stuff, I expect Unders to be the stronger plays.

Buys:
Wash/Chi Un 237
NO/Ok Ov 215

 

[RBD]

Recap: First day of this week-long experiment was not good, 0-2.
Record: 2-3

Slim chance anything fits today.

 

[RBD]

Got two games that fit.

Buys:
Chi Un 233
GS Un 236'

 

[joflow09]

Got two games that fit.

Buys:
Chi Un 233
GS Un 236'

good call

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Jo.

Recap: Hit both plays yesterday.
Record: 4-3.

The Match Plays are 9-3 now, just 2-2 here,
no plays today. If that changes I'll post.

 

[RBD]

Got two Match Plays today,
LAL/Memphis Ov, LAC/Phx Ov.

Both games are also >8, which is 11-7, Ov 4-1, Un 7-6.

I'll start by buying just the earlier game.

Buys:
LAL/Memphis Ov 221

 

[RBD]

Doesn't look like the first game is going to make it home, so I'll play the odds - at its current winning percentage this play has a better chance of going 1-1 than 0-2, so I'm buying the second spot.

Buys:
LAL/Memphis Ov 221
LAC/@Phx Ov 216

 

[RBD]

Recap: Split, 1-1. Good call on playing the %'s and taking LAC Ov. Entered Q4 needing just 47 pts, should've been easy but the slackers made me sweat, with the W not coming until under a minute left, thanks to FT's.

Record 5-4

Did some tweaking to the base play I use. I've been using a differential of 5 pts (a variance of 5 pts between my # and the # posted by the books.) I'm going to up it to 8. This will kick out less plays but should increase my W %.
And reviewing my charts I see that with a dif of 10 or > the record is 7-2, Ov 2-1, Un 5-1.

Match Plays are 10-4, but just 3-3 here. This week will determine it's usefulness, or lack of.

Today's spots, with pt diff in parenthesis:
Ov in Ok/Mia (9')
Un in Char/Phil (12), Sac/GS (9')

I'll update if any are Match Plays.

Update: Match plays in Philly & GS.
I have Matches at 4-3 Ov, 6-1 Un. (I need to double check that stat, may be off by a game or two.)

Also, GS %# has gone up to 234' which makes it a diff of 11' now (see my note on "10 or >" above in this post.)

Buying Charl/Phil. Line is at 222 but rising, a few 222' out there; wait on the buy.

Update: The 222' are gone, two 221' now showing, common # still 222; grabbed it.

Update #2: Bank the early game, no play on the late game.

Buys:
Charl/Phil Un 222

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a W with Philly Under 222.
Slipped in by 3 pts.
Had 101 at halftime, looking great, but they combined for a 71 Q4 to make me sweat a bit.

Record: 6-4

Made a good call on not buying the late game. I was leaning towards buying it, but when the Philly game came close to a loss I decided to just be happy with banking that unit.
Good thing because it was a bad beat for GS Under players.
The # was 235. With 57 seconds left it was sitting at 229, GS up by 33 pts.
If given a chance to buy in live at Un 235 I would take it. With 57 seconds left there are approx 3 possessions remaining because with a 33 pt lead GS will just dribble out the clock on theirs, right?
Sure, Sacramento would probably heave up a couple of 3's, but they'd have to hit both of them for the # to hit 235. But, in the final 57 seconds the teams combined for four 3 pt'ers made, two each team, one missed.
That was an ugly loss for Under bettors

I have no plays yet, only one game qualifies (LAL Ov) but the diff is under 10 pts and I'd like to use those plays only for this week, unless I get a Match Play after I finish my #'s.
Will post if I buy anything.

 

[RBD]

Record 6-4

Had a game that was a Match Play last night, and though I said I'll use all of them this week I really didn't like the play, Cleve/Memphis Over, because I checked the logbook and saw Memphis was 0-2 in this same spot.

The game was also a > 10 spot (record 2-1), so it was hard not to buy it, but, in the end, it was the right call as the game stayed way Under.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY NIGHT!!!!
In fact, betting every night will likely hurt your bankroll.

I have a 10 or > than spot tonight, OK/NY Ov 209' (10')
I have more work to do. If it qualifies as a Match play I may buy it, but a couple of factors are making me take a closer look:

The 10 or > play is 10-4, but only 2-2 on Overs.

And, different days of the week have different feels to them. When do YOU have more energy - Monday night or Friday night? Most people would say Friday. Same with sports.
I looked at last Friday night's games - only ONE of ten games went Over.
I checked the previous Friday to see if there were similar results, but that was Christmas and that has a different feel to it too, and also day games included.
It's a small sample, and probably means nothing, but with Unders coming in at 10-1 last Friday night I'd prefer one of those to an Over tonight.

I'll be back if I buy anything.

Update: Line went up in NY game, diff now 8' no longer fits 10 or >.
I have two Match Plays, but both Overs, Brook & Orlando games.
As stated above in this post I don't want any Overs tonight.
No buys yet, may not have anything.

 

[RBD]

Record 6-4

No plays for the last ten days, been putting the work/time in tracking, charting, handicapping, looking for something to work with.

Here's what my chart looks like.

Basic Play 30-26
Ov 16-15
Un 14-11

Differential of 10 or > 12-6, Ov 6-4, Un 6-2

Match Plays 14-8, Ov 7-5, Un 7-3

Mis/Matches 3-2 Ov 3-0, Un 0-2

Okay, a few things I can use this week, and one spot tonight.

Buys:
Mil/Brook Un 239 (10')

 

[RBD]

No, I haven't been slacking off on my 'capping, just being extra choosy in the NBA since it is the only sport I took an L in last year. I haven't posted much because I wanted to gather more data, hoping to find something to use.

Here's an update on my log book.
The base play uses a differential of 8 or > pts: 38-31, Ov 22-18, Un 15-13.
Nothing special, head above water but just barely.
At a diff of 10 or > I get less plays but a higher W %: 16-7, Ov 10-4, Un 6-3.

My records is 6-5.

I have two 10 or > spots today.

Buys:
Brook/Atl Un 239 (differential of 13')
Den/Mia Ov 220' (12)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Had two plays of 10 or >, a 69% play, thought I'd split at worst case but got hosed by OT.
The Ov in Miami was dead from the git, with the Heat putting up a 12 pt Q1.
Had 232 at the end of Q4 in Atlanta, Under my # 239, but it was 116-116 and I lost in OT.

Record: 6-7.

Spotted a wrong # in yesterday's chart update: 38-31, Ov 22-18, Un 15-13.
The Ov + Un was one fewer than the total 38-31, researched and corrected, had one more W than there should be, update with yesterday's losses is:
37-33, Ov 22-19, Un 15-14.
10 or > Ov 10-5, Un 6-4

I'm underwater for the first time this season, by one game.
Need to find a W or this could start getting ugly.

Short card of only four games, thought I wouldn't get a play, but one game fits:
LAC/Mia Ov 214' (16)

A whopping differential of 16, and the game total looks to be still dropping so the diff could get even wider.
Problem is - do I want to buy an Over with a team that put up quarters of 12 and 17 last night?

Let's look at a couple things.
Since the Heat played last night, let's find out how Miami does in game two of B2B's.
And I'll check my logbook to see the record of games with a diff of 15 or >.

Miami has played B2B twice this season, one game went Over, one went Under.,
Not much help there in trying to decide what to do tonight.

The first time was H-H (home-home), like tonight's game. They were off a loss to Milwaukee the night before. Game one they scored 97, game two 119. That's 22 pts higher in game two.
That helps make the case to play the Over.

The second time they were A-A (away-away), game one they scored 81, game two 124. Game two was 43 pts more than game one. That helps make the case to play the Over.

In two B2B games the Heat avg'd 37' more pts in the second game.
But the 43 was against Brooklyn, not a very good team defense-wise.
Tonight they get LAC, the 4th best D in pts against. That doesn't help the case to play the Over.

Let's look at their D in B2B's.
First time in game two of B2B's they gave up 36 pts fewer than the first game,
second time they gave up 37 more pts. No help there.

A check of the log book shows I have four spots where the diff was 15 or >. Ov 2-0, Un 2-0.
Neither of the two Overs had Miami in them, but . . .
factoring in the10-5 record on Overs in this spot (10 or >),
and the second game pt rise in Miami's game two's of B2B's,
and the 2-0 record on 15 or >,
I think I just talked myself into a buy.

The line is down 3 pts from the opener, seems like waiting to see if it keeps dropping is the right move for right now. I'll post the number I get.

Good luck to all with your plays tonight.

Buys:
LAC/Mia Ov 213'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit with a winner by the hook on Ov 213' in LAC as it landed on 214.

I bought it at 213' after it dropped from 216/215 range.
Good move on waiting for a drop, the opening #'s would have been a loser on the Over,
but I could have done better as it went down to 212. And I almost needed that extra pt.

If you didn't see the game, I got lucky at the very end. There was only 27 seconds left, the game could have gone either way, Ov or Un, when I benefited from a rare "Webber" (when a player calls for a time out but his team has none left.) The Clips get hit with a technical, Herro makes the FT and puts the game at 211.

Record: 7-7

Nothing qualifies as a fit today.
Good luck with your plays . . .

 

[RBD]

Updated chart:

40-35, Ov 25-20, Un 15-15

Diff of 10 or > 17-10, Ov 11-5, Un 6-5

Two games fit tonight:

Char/Mia Ov 216 (18)
Port/Milw Un 235 (11)

Mia Ov is 3-0 when it's in the 10 or > spot.
And . . . from 1/28: "A check of the log book shows four spots where the diff was 15 or >. Ov 2-0, Un 2-0." It won with Miami that night (by a hook) so 15 or > is now 5-0; 3-0 Ov, 2-0 Un.

I'll stick with it.

There are a few 215' out there, even a 215 or two, but 216 is the common number, so . . .

Buys:
Char/Mia Ov 216