NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

Recap: Hit an easy one with Ov in Miami, got OT but didn't need it, was Over by double digits in regulation.

Record: 8-7

Posted spots split last night, good decision to take only the stronger of the two.

Today's spots:

LAC/Brook Un 243 (19')

10 or > is 18-11, Ov 12-5, Un 6-6.
After two straight losses the Un is at .500, BUT when the diff is 15 or > the record is 5-0, Ov 3-0, Un 2-0.

Brook is 4-4 in 8 or > Un, 1-0 in 15 or >.
But . . .
It's an ugly spot to take an Under in:

The previous three Brook games have averaged 275.
Brook has gone Ov nine of the last ten games.
Since the Harden trade, their games see an avg of 252 pts scored.

LAC are one of the best D's in the league. but will that be enough to offset stats like the three above?

I'll stick with the 15 or > spot again tonight.

The board is split right now between 242' and 243.

Buys:
LAC/Brook Un 243

 

[RBD]

Recap: I hate the NBA. Games like last night's are why I don't watch, and usually don't handicap.
I have Under 243 with LAC/Brook. I check the score early in the 4th quarter and I'm looking good, on a pace for 230. Still looking good with one minute left and only 229 scored.

ONE MINUTE left.
229 scored.
It would take 15 pts in one minute to beat me.
15!
One minute!!
15 pts in one minute would extrapolate to a 180 pt quarter, even with fouling that ain't gonna happen.
I got this one, right?
WRONG!
I lost with 1.9 seconds left in the game when they scored the 15th pt.
Assholes.

Record: 8-8

One spot tonight, Ind/Milw Un 232' (12)

Got a > 10 differential, after last night's loss these are 18-12, 12-5 Ov, 6-7 Un.
Unders are underwater, no value.

Checking the record of these two teams on my charts I see Milwaukee is solid fade material at 1-4.
The early chart used a diff of 5 before I tweaked it to 8.
Two of the Milw losses came at that early diff of 5 or >.
The one win was at 5 or >.
At 10 or > like tonight they're 0-2.

Indy is 0-1 on Unders, diff of 6; 2-0 when they appeared in Overs.

I have to use the numbers my chart points to, or there's no sense in keeping a chart.
Unders of 10 or > are tanking, and these two are a combined 1-5 on all Unders.
I'm fading it.

Buys:
Indy/Milw Ov 232'

 

[Coach Woody]

Just want to clarify RBD

Are you playing the over or the under cause you have the buy at over and the fits in play at under?

 

[Destructor D]

Recap: I hate the NBA. Games like last night's are why I don't watch, and usually don't handicap.
I have Under 243 with LAC/Brook. I check the score early in the 4th quarter and I'm looking good, on a pace for 230. Still looking good with one minute left and only 229 scored.

ONE MINUTE left.
229 scored.
It would take 15 pts in one minute to beat me.
15!
One minute!!
15 pts in one minute would extrapolate to a 180 pt quarter, even with fouling that ain't gonna happen.
I got this one, right?
WRONG!
I lost with 1.9 seconds left in the game when they scored the 15th pt.
Assholes.

Record: 8-8

One spot tonight, Ind/Milw Un 232' (12)

Got a > 10 differential, after last night's loss these are 18-12, 12-5 Ov, 6-7 Un.
Unders are underwater, no value.

Checking the record of these two teams on my charts I see Milwaukee is solid fade material at 1-4.
The early chart used a diff of 5 before I tweaked it to 8.
Two of the Milw losses came at that early diff of 5 or >.
The one win was at 5 or >.
At 10 or > like tonight they're 0-2.

Indy is 0-1 on Unders, diff of 6; 2-0 when they appeared in Overs.

I have to use the numbers my chart points to, or there's no sense in keeping a chart.
Unders of 10 or > are tanking, and these two are a combined 1-5 on all Unders.
I'm fading it.

Buys:
Indy/Milw Ov 232'

Had the same Under 243 which can't believe I lost it either... happens

 

[RBD]

Destructor D - yeah, all we can hope for is that by season's end the games we should have lost but lucked out with a win balance out the bad beats we should have won but lost.

Coach - Sorry, I didn't see your question before tip off. I usually make time to stop back later in the day after giving picks, to see if anyone had a question or shared an opinion on the game, but didn't yesterday.
The system called for an Under, but . . .
Unders were underwater at 6-7, no value on them.
The two teams, Indy and Milw, were a combined 1-5 on Unders in this system.
Because of those two facts I played a fade.
I have to use the data I accumulate. With a play at 6-7 with a diff of 10 or more, and teams who are 1-5 at a diff of 5 or >, I'm going to follow the stats my chart gives me and buy the play it points me to - the fade in this case. Hope you got the Over if you bought it.

Recap: Got a winner with Indy/Milw Over and by a small margin I'm back in black.

Record: 9-8

No plays fit tonight, small card.
Working on another situational system so that I don't have to rely on just the one I've been using.

 

[RBD]

Two spots tonight.
NO/Ind Un 228 (8')
Tor/Brook Un 240 (11)

I think Brooklyn has screwed me twice (?) in this spot?
I know they F'd me with their 15 pts in the final 58 seconds two nights ago, so I'm not eager to jump on another Under with them. Tor has not been in this play this season, 0-0.

While looking at Indy Un in this spot I saw a game marked with a Green W for them, but it was recorded as an Over, should have been an Under, and it was a 10 or > spot, too.
Taking away a W from Overs and moving it to Unders makes the correct record on this play 42-37,
Ov 26-20, Un 16-17. 10 or > is 19-12, Ov 12-5, Un 7-7.

Indy is 1-1 Un in this play, NO 0-0.

No strong data on either spot, so I'm not going to force a play.
Sitting just one game above .500 at 9-8 I'll take the day off again, and look to college for some action today.

 

[RBD]

So busy with college I forgot to post NBA yesterday.

Base system had Brooklyn and Milwaukee games Under, both won. I didn't buy either one.

New system I'm tracking had New York Over, I bought it and lost. No play here though.

Record: 9-8

Updated chart:
Base play 45-38, Ov 26-20, Un 19-18
10 or > 21-12, Ov 12-5, Un 9-7.

Today, base system has:
Utah Un 225' (9), NY Ov 206' (10)
New thing has Washington Under 238' (8').

I don't like playing Unders on Sunday morning in the NBA.

Buys:
Mia/NY Ov (wait to buy, line steadily dropping.)
Board split at 207/206'. Just bought it at 206' in case there's a late buy back from middle hunters who bought the opening 213.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won with Mia/NY Ov.
Great pace at halftime, then the slackers made me sweat it out until the last minute.

Record: 10-8

Updated charts to start the week:

Main play 45-38, Ov 26-20, Un 19-18; 10 or > 21-12, Ov *12-5, Un 9-7
Value in 10 or > Ov

* NY was posted as 10 or > play; line dropped it to a diff 9' so it doesn't count as a 10 or > play. (It would be nice to make the 12-5 record on Overs 13-5 but I use these numbers to gauge what to buy, if they're not accurate I'm only screwing myself.)

New play 3-1, Ov 1-2, Un 2-1; 10 or > 0-1, Ov 0-0, Un 0-1

No spots in the main play today, three in the New Play.
Ov in Tor/Mem 222 (9), Unders in Milw/Den 234 (8) Hou/Char 224 (10)

Update: Milw/Den down to 233, no longer qualifies as diff is now < the minimum of 8 pts.
Update #2: Houston off, too.

No buys. I'll update if I grab anything.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

It's difficult to keep accurate charts in basketball because of all the line movements.
Yesterday morning, three games qualified. At some point during the day, all three saw line movement that made them no longer qualify, and one game moved back the other way and qualified again at closing.

If my charts aren't accurate they're worthless as a guide for when to buy a game.
So the question is - what number should be used for the chart?
In football, I've always used the closing number, or at least the number late on game day.
In baskets. I'm not sure what to use.

One of my concerns is I don't want someone to buy a game in the morning, only to stop back later in the day and see it was taken off because it no longer qualifies. (I've done it myself.)

Anyway . . .

Yesterday, only Milw qualified by game time, and it lost as it went Over by 3 pts.

Today . . .

In the main play I've been using, one spot, NY/Mia Ov 208' (12').
I just won with these two on Sunday, not going to give it back today (NY is just 2-2 in this play, making it easier to stay off this one.)

New thing has Bos/Utah Ov 220' (8'), GS/SA Un 230 (8).

No buys.

Update: Main play, NY/Mia Ov 207' (13');
New play, NY/Mia Ov 207' (8'), Bos/Utah Ov 219 (10),
GS/NO Un 231 (9)
Not enough data to make a buy on new play, still too new, 3-2, Ov 1-0, Un 2-2, 10 or > 0-1, Un 0-1.

 

[RBD]

No buys last night.
Posted plays - Main Play 0-1 on NYK Over (good move not buying it after cashing with it Sunday),
New Play 2-1, missed with NYK Ov, hit with Bos Ov and GS Un.

Main play has Brook/Ind Un 235 (11')

New Play has Over in Den 219 (9), Mem 224 (8), LAL 217' (9')
Under in Tor/Wash 234 (9)

Wash is 2-0 in these spots, so . . .

Update: Char (7') no play; LAL (10');
good move waiting on Tor, 235/235' now; 235 is the common # at most houses

Buys:
Tor/Wash Un 235

 

[yanno]

Buys:
Tor/Wash Un (line opened 230; 234 now, a couple 234' showing; wait to buy in case it goes up a little more)

I LIKE IT! Thanks. Have a feeling the Raptors will play some defence tonite, as they began to do when Nick Nurse was ejected last game for dancing and prancing. :lol:

But it worked. I have bought it up to under 238 and then hooked it with Denver on the ml to get the juice to plus money (+107). It's just the way I roll.

Best of luck tonite!! :0008

 

[RBD]

Well, we missed that one, Yanno, let's try to get it back tonight, good luck with whatever games you buy.

Recap: Lost with Wash Un.
Bad choice, 5 posted plays (Char was taken down later), 4 winners, I played the only one that didn't win.

Record: 10-9.

Main Play won with Brook, 48-39 now, Ov 27-21, Un 21-18; 10 or > 21-13 Ov 12-6, Un 9-7

New play, Cleve closed at 218 so it was a 10 or > play. LAL closed 217, also a 10 or >.
Wash closed 235', also a 10 or > play.
Record now 7-4, Ov 4-1, Un 3-3; 10 or > is 3-2, Ov 3-0, Un 0-2

I do a LOT of stuff with numbers, if anyone spots a mistake please point it out.

Main Play - nothing.
New Play Over in Tor 220' (10'), Indy/Det 215' (9').

Raptors on a run of 7 straight Overs, hate to push it and look for another one but I'm going to because Tor is 1-0 in this spot and so is Boston, and it's a 10 or > play. Wait to buy, # is dropping.
Indy and Det are 0-0 in this play, if it drops any lower I'm buying it, will post it if I do.

Adding Det game.

Buys:
Tor/Bos Ov 220'
Indy/Det Ov 215'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Split last night, 1-1.
Record: 11-10

Tonight's spots.

Main Play has NO/Dal UN 232 (8'), Milw/Utah Un 237 (11)
New Play has NO/Dal Ov 232, Det/Bos Ov 211 (13)

Got a conflict, Main Play says NO/Dal Un, New Play says Ov.
Logbook shows this happened once before, last Friday, Main Play said Tor Un, new Play said Over.
It went Over. I'll use the New Play in this NO/Dal game.
Also using New Play Det/Bos game Ov as it's a 10 or > spot (record on Overs in these is in posts above.)

Buys:
NO/Dal Ov 232
Det/Bos Ov 211

 

[RBD]

Recap: Split last time in, hit with Ov in NO, missed with Ov in Det.

Record 12-11.

Today, my # for the Hou game is double digits fewer than the 228' the books put up.
Unders with a diff of 10 or > are 19-10 in this spot, but . . .
Wash is 2-2 in this spot.

Opened at 229'; 230 & 230' now available.
No buy yet, watching the line, if it goes 1-2 pts higher I may buy it, will post if I do.

 

[RBD]

Handicapping everyday, just being selective in what I buy.

Today's spots:
Main Play has Bos Un (differential 11),
New Play has Orl Ov (10').

Updated records in my chart:

Main Play 50-44, Ov 27-21, Un 23-23
10 or > 39-27, Ov 18-13, Un 21-14
15 or > 6-0, Ov 4-0, Un 2-0.

New Play 17-18, Ov 10-9, Un 7-9
10 or > 11-19, Ov 7-14, Un 4-5
13 or > 3-3, Ov 3-2, Un 0-1

Not a lot to work with, another reason I haven't been doing any buys. Some good fade material on the New Play 10 or > Over spots. And there's a solid win percentage on the Main Play 10 or > Under.

My record is 12-11.

One buy now, may add another later.

Buys:
Bos/NO Un 232

 

[yanno]

Hi and good luck. Yes, there does appear to be a solid win percentage on the Main Play 10 or > Under. It looks like it's 23-14 and that is very good and not a bad sample size, either! I'm in and thanks win or lose.

:0008

 

[Coach Woody]

I FREAKING HATE overtime when I have the under.:facepalm::facepalm:

 

[RBD]

Yanno & Coach, thanks for riding with me.
I had a good take on the game, but we got screwed by OT.

Recap: Lost with NO Un.
Record: 12-12.

Unlike Kid's Ball, where I have a few systems to play ON or Fade, I have very little to work with in the NBA, so losses like yesterday don't help.

Updated charts:

Main Play 50-45, Ov 27-21, Un 23-24.
10 or > 39-27, Ov 18-13, Un 21-15; 15 or > Ov 4-0, Un 2-0.

New Play 17-19, Ov 10-10, Un 7-9.
10 or > 11-20, Ov 7-15, Un 4-5; 13 or > 3-3, Ov 3-2, Un 0-1.

Value in Main Play 10 or > Ov (58%) or Un 10 (58%), and 15 or > (but rarely get those.)
Only value in New Play is Fading Overs of 10 or >.

Like I said, not much to work with.

One spot today, New Play Wash/LAL Un 227, (8).
No buys. This is the toughest sport for me to beat and I have to be very selective if I'm going to win.
NOT a sport for me to look to for fun/action.

 

[RBD]

Spots to choose from today:

Main Play GS/NYK Un.
New Play Sac/Brook Un, Det/Orl Un, Minn/Milw Ov.

I'd like to Fade the GS game but don't trust the Knicks to get the pts I need from them.

The Sac/Brook game I have a diff of 10 or > which is a 4-5 play, with SAC 0-1 in this spot, Brook 0-2, I may Fade this one since they're a combined 0-3.

Minn game is New Play Ov with a diff of 10 or >, based on the record of that play it's an automatic Fade for me.

Update: FYI purposes only, GS/NYK is now 10 or > (21-15 play) but I'm not touching it.

Buys:
Minn/Milw Un (wait to buy, #'s at 231/231' and looks like we have a chance at 232 or >)

 

[RBD]

Recap: Lost with Minn Un last time in.
Record: 12-13.

I'm underwater now by one game, 2.3 units.
I really want to beat this sport but have little to work with.
One problem I have is I really don't like the NBA.
If I have $ on a college game and an NBA game, I watch the college game.
If I have $ on an NBA game and there is no college on, I watch Chopped. Or anything.
I don't like the game, the SJW agenda-pushing league, and their pedo-looking commissioner.
It's hard to excel at something you have no interest in. I like hunting for valuable systems in college, I'm lazy with NBA, due to overall lack of interest. I'm going to need more than the usual dose of luck to win in the NBA.

With yesterday's spots added in:

Main Play is 51-45, Ov 27-21, Un 24-23.
10 or > is 40-27, Ov 18-13, Un 22-14; 15 or > is 6-0, Ov 4-0, Un 2-0.

New Play is 21-19, Ov 13-9, Un 8-10.
10 or > is 13-20, Ov 9-14, Un 4-6; 13 or > is 4-3, Ov 4-2, Un 0-1.

Today's choices:
Main Play Un in Sac, Mil (12').
New Play has Ov in LAC (10), Un in Sac.

I'm fading the Sac Un spot and taking it Over.
When both plays are on the same total the record is 0-3, Ov 0-1, Un 0-2.
Also leading me to this buy is this, NY is 1-0 in this spot, but Sac is 0-2.

Also fading NO Under. NO is 1-3 in this spot, Mil is 2-4, combined 3-7.

Buys:
Sac/NYK Ov 224'
NO/Milw Ov 242'