NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

Recap: NYK score 140??!! Good night to have them in an Over. 2-0 with that game and Milw Ov.

Record: 14-13

All four posted plays lost last night, good move fading the two I used.

Today . . .

Only have three plays, all New Plays, Bos Ov, Char Ov, Mia Un.
No buys for me, no angles or edges.

 

[RBD]

Didn't handicap yesterday, too busy with college baskets and FCS football. I have a couple of spots to choose from today.

Main Play Un in Sacramento.

New Play Ov in Atl, Wash, NYK.

New York has been in the spot once, 0-1.
Detroit has been in this spot four times, 0-4.
The diff is > 10, the record on that spot is 9-15.
With numbers like that I have to fade the spot, right?

Buys:
NY/Det Un 211

 

[Randercity]

Are you posting your football plays in the forum here? I didn't see a post from you... just curious [emoji848]

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[RBD]

Rander,
I haven't posted any plays here, in part because I didn't think there'd be much interest. I may start adding some plays this week or next if I have something that works. The play I'm using is the same as the one I used in FBS, off to a decent start charted at 7-5, Ov 5-4, Un 3-1. Unders might have value again, not as great as in FBS, but looking good thus far. I'm 5-2 in games I bought.

Recap: Won with NYK Under yesterday, utilizing the #'s in the data I've been gathering. A 9-16 spot is just as valuable to me as a 16-9 spot.

Record: 15-13

Today . . .
Main Play has Utah/NO Un.
New Play has Brook/SA Un. Both games are 10 or >.

Utah 2-1 in this spot, NO 0-2.
Brook is 0-3. New Play Un with 10 or > Un is 4-7. I'm fading it.

Buys:
Brook/SA Ov 233'

 

[Randercity]

Thanks for the reply... I have no clue on the teams playing right now, and no time to learn. But if someone is doing their homework (and we all know you do! 🥸) I?m willing to check it out.


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[RBD]

Rander - if any games qualify, I'll post them in here for you as I'll likely be here adding NBA plays anyway.

Recap: 1-0. Got a W in OT with the Nets (Coach Woody, if you're here - last night makes up for the Un in Bos/NO that cost us a W when it went to OT last week.)

Record: 16-13

Tonight, two spots, both in the New Play (NP): Un in Den, Memphis.

Den has a diff of 10, Mem has a diff of 13.
NP record is 21-22, Ov 13-10, Un 8-12.
10 or > is 13-23, Ov 9-15, Un 4-8.
13 or > 4-3, Ov 4-2, Un 0-1.
I think those #'s make it clear what to buy today.
Buy the early game, Memphis, if it wins, bank it, no more buys. If it loses buy the later game (Denver.)

Update: Looks like the guys who bought the opening # Under are starting a buy-back on Memphis, it's going back up, 236 is now the common number, I'll use that here.

Buys:
Memphis/Wash Ov (wait, opening 238 is down to 235' now.)

 

[RBD]

Had a great pace in Memphis, but the third quarter killed me.
Buy the Den game Ov 234.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a push with Memphis, lost with Milw (A 17 pt quarter at home? Sloths!)
Record: 16-14

Today . . .

Main Play has Ov in Det, Un in Utah, Chi, Minn

NP has Un in Brook, GS.

Hou is 0-1 in this spot. Brook is 0-4 in this spot. Just used Brook Un for a W on Monday, ride it until until it bucks ya.

Update - I just noticed the Unders in the Main Play are on a five game losing streak.
I'll ride it by fading them all today.

Buys:
Utah/Phill Ov 230
Chi/NO Ov 236'
Charl/Minn Ov 232
Brook/Hou Ov 228'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 4-0.
Record: 20-14.

Today's spots:

New Play (NP) has Un in Mil, LAC.

No buys for me. If that changes, I'll post.

Doing my FCS 'capping next, if anything qualifies I'll post it for you here, Rander.

Update: Mia/NO Un 227' qualifies as MP.

FCS

FCS has Ov in Presby, S Utah, McNeese, Duquesne, Bryant, E Ill

Un in VMI, Furman, Tenn St.

THESE MAY CHANGE, some plays may be added, some dropped depending on line movements.
I'll update throughout the week.

Buys:

VMI/W Car Un 63

 

[RBD]

Rander, did you get VMI? Anybody?

I nailed that one, beating the number by 26.
The game graded out at a diff of 19, which is why it's the only one I played.
The Furman Under only graded out at 8', barely qualifying by a hook. Good move staying off that one, there was a pick 6 and a punt returned for a touchdown, to win Unders you have to avoid those kind of scores.

Update - Tenn St line dropped to 55' no longer qualifies as a play today.

Duquesne grades out at 15, and Bryant at 14 if anyone is looking for action today. No buys for me though, I'm an Unders guy.

 

[Randercity]

Rander, did you get VMI? Anybody?

I nailed that one, beating the number by 26.
The game graded out at a diff of 19, which is why it's the only one I played.
The Furman Under only graded out at 8', barely qualifying by a hook. Good move staying off that one, there was a pick 6 and a punt returned for a touchdown, to win Unders you have to avoid those kind of scores.

Update - Tenn St line dropped to 55' no longer qualifies as a play today.

Duquesne grades out at 15, and Bryant at 14 if anyone is looking for action today. No buys for me though, I'm an Unders guy.

Yes sir... Thanks!! [emoji109]

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[RBD]

You're welcome, I was hoping you saw the post with FCS added.

Here's a recap of what I have heading into this weekend:

The situational play I use is now 13-9, 59%.

Overs are 8-7, Unders are 5-2.

Looking for plays within the play to see if I can find something that has a higher W %, I see . . .

Games with a differential of 10 or > have a record of 6-3, Ov 4-3, Un 2-0.

Games with a differential of 13 or > the record is 5-0, Ov 4-0, Un 1-0.

I lean to buying Unders but at 4-0, I'll look to add Overs of 13 or > too.

I'm also doing some handicapping work on sides (very rare for me, I usually only work with totals because that's where I have had success over the years.) The record is 7-5 overall, Favs 3-3, Dogs 4-2.
At 8 or > it's 3-2, Ov 0-2, Un 3-0. I'll track it for a few weeks, see if it yields anything productive.
I'll post those too if anyone is interested in sides.

I'll have qualifying plays up by Friday at the latest.

 

[yanno]

Thanks, RBD, appreciate that you take the time to share. Hope you get something out of sharing also! :0008

 

[RBD]

You're welcome Yanno, and yes, I get something out of it.
I have an altruistic nature, if I can offer advice on money management and handicapping I'm happy to do so.
And if I can squeeze out a few winners too, it's just icing on the cake.

I'll move FCS posts to the college football forum at some point in the future, but they'll be here in this forum again this week in case anyone is interested.

 

[RBD]

This weeks FCS.

Here is what I'm working with:

The play I use is at 13-9, 59%.

Overs are 8-7, Unders are 5-2.

Games with a differential of 10 or > have a record of 6-3, Ov 4-3, Un 2-0.

Games with a differential of 13 or > the record is 5-0, Ov 4-0, Un 1-0.


My record: 1-0

This week's spots to choose from:

Ov Presby 53, Nicholls 60, Lamar 46', E Wash 61'

Un in Citadel 50', S Car St 43', VMI 57, Furman 46', Miss Valley St 54', Tenn Tech 48

As always, this may change, some games added, some dropped based on line moves.

Lamar has a diff of 18, Furman 12

A lot of Unders to choose from, this is usually a good thing.
I'm not buying VMI, I used them twice, won both, not going to push my luck looking for a third win, not with the # at 57, I'll keep the 2 units already banked.

Records for teams in this spot:
VMI 2-0, Presby 1-0, McNeese 0-1, Idaho St 0-1, Furman 1-1, W Car 1-0.

Update: Due to line moves, Nicholls/Sam Houston no longer qualifies as a play. Holy Cross/Lehigh is added as an Over, no buy on it, updated for record-keeping purposes.

Buys:

Lamar/McNeese Ov 46'
W Car/Citadel Un 50'
Furman/E Tenn St Un 46'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-0.
Hit with the over in Lamar, Unders in Citadel, Furman (ya gotta love those Unders in this play.)

Record: 4-0

Posted plays yesterday went 6-2,
Unders a perfect 4-0, 9-2 on the season.

FCS Unders looking as good as FBS was.

Two games qualify today, they're in my post above. No buys for me today.

 

[Coach Woody]

Great hit. I got the first one. Missed seeing the other two. Until after the games.

I need to check more often.

Hoping for a play today

 

[RBD]

Hey, Coach, glad you got in on one of them, thanks for letting me know.

I'll move them into the college football forum, but for at least one more week, next week, they'll be here again.

 

[Coach Woody]

You don't have to move for me. I just need to check more often. Let's have a great week

 

[RBD]

No biggie Coach, I'll eventually move them. I posted plays here because this is where I was asked for them. They belong in the college football section, but, though my play is math-based, I'm a superstitious sort, so I was asked here, I posted here, I won here, I'll keep posting here until I have a down week, then I'll move them.

You have any superstitions, Coach? Any of you guys?
I'll share one or two of mine:

When I have an Ov with a total of, for example, let's say 45, I place the volume # on my TV to 46. I always set it one digit Over the # I need for the game I'm watching. (I don't do the same for Unders though, don't know why, probably because it's ridiculous and irrelevant to what is actually happening in the game.)

I love Chinese takeout joints, usually have it at least twice every week, but when I have a very large wager going I do not have Chinese food for dinner while I'm watching the game. Took a bad beat once, BIG $, and I try not to repeat mistakes, so, no Chinese food.

Anyway . . .

FCS:

The two Unders split yesterday, so not buying them was the correct move as it saved juice, allowing me to keep all of the three units banked on Saturday.

Updated #'s look like this:

My posted record is 4-0.

The play I use to choose from is now 20-12, 62%; Ov 10-9, Un 10-3.

Games with a diff of 10 or > have a record of 7-3, Ov 4-3, Un 3-0.

Games with a diff of 13 pts or > 6-0, Ov 5-0, Un 1-0.

Back on Friday with any games that qualify.