NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

With no Kid's Ball going, I spent a little time on NBA today.

Record: 20-14

MP has NYK Un
MP is 22-17 Un when 10 or > like NYK is tonight

NP has Utah Ov
NP is 13-10 Ov

Buys:

NYK/Phil Un 218'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got an easy W with NYK Un.

Record: 21-14.

Last night's W puts me at 60% in my worst sport, hope I can stay at that mark for a while.

Apology - I forgot to add a stat to the NP game last night, the Ov was 9-15 when the differential is 10 or >.
I was looking at it as a fade, kind of important info to leave out, sorry if anyone took it Over.
It's 9-16 now, a 64% fade, one I'll look to use in the future; maybe tonight?

Only one game qualifies tonight, NP, Bos Ov.
At 214 or < the diff qualifies as 10 or > (9-16 now.)

Only reason I may not buy it is because I didn't buy it last night, here or in my pocket, and it won, and I hate buying a game after a missed opportunity like that.

I'll post it if I buy it.

 

[RBD]

Good call on NOT using the fade Boston spot last night, even with a 64% fade play active.
That game was an example of why I don't like to jump on a play that won night before, especially if I wasn't on it the previous night.

Two NP spots tonight, Ov in NYK, Un in Minn.
NY is 10 or > (10-16 record on this spot; Orl is 0-2, NY 0-2)

Those are strong stats pointing to a fade on Orl/NYK (saying take them Un) but I missed the best # by a couple of points because I'm late getting work done on these (was busy with NCAA & FCS), and I don't feel like buying a bad # at 206'. I'll likely take a pass on tonight's card and hope to have some fun with Kid's Ball.

FCS:

Only six games qualify, here are the spots: Ov in Albany, Mercer, McNeese, Lamar, Tenn Martin; Un in VMI.

Not many choices this week, and only one Under.
I don't like the VMI Un because I won two VMI Unders already this season, so I stayed off it last week and it barely stayed Under by one pt. And, thought the Un is 10-3 this year, one of the three losses was with VMI's opponent this week, Samford.
No buys for me.

 

[RBD]

With Kid's basketball coming to an end, I'll likely spend more time handicapping the NBA.
My record on NBA is 21-14.

I tightened the parameters on the plays I track. It will result in less choices, but hopefully more W's.

Here's what I currently have.
Using the new parameters, the MP (Main Play I have used all year) is 42-30, 58%.
Ov is 20-13 (60%), Un 22-17 (56%).
13 or > is 7-0, Ov 5-0, Un 2-0.

The NP (the Newer Play I started to track) is 23-27, 46%.
Ov is 10-18 (35%), Un 13-9 (59%).
13 or > is 4-3, Ov 4-2, Un 0-1.

Not a lot to work with, nothing great, but a few possibilities.
Fading NP Ov is a solid 65%, and I have one of them today in Mia/NYK.
The problem with using that spot is the odd factor that if it goes to 13 or > the %'s go from a 65% play AGAINST (fade) to a 67% play ON (though the 67% has a small data sample of just 4-2.) Right now at 204, it's at a diff of 12.

I might buy it. I'll watch the line and see where it goes. If I buy it I'll do an update and post my # here.

 

[RBD]

I blew it on the Mia/NYK game last night.
I waited to buy it and post, forgot about it (got caught up in NCAA stuff), didn't get a bet in.

The closing # was 206 so it qualified for the play I noted yesterday, the NP Ov, 10-18, 65% fade.

They scored 186. An easy W by 20 pts.

The Chi/GS game qualified as a NP Un; it won.

Here's the updated chart:
NP 24-28, Ov 10-19, Un 14-9
13 or > 4-3, Ov 4-2, Un 0-1.

The NP Ov fade is now 10-19, 65%.
Unders are also a good play at 60%.

Nothing qualifies today.
With some extra time to 'cap, I'm going to look for something else to use, and post it here.
This is a work in progress, NOT buys. Not yet anyway.
I'm sharing the spots and results here in case anyone is interested in the process or looking for action on a game.

I like team totals, so I'm going to look there for some plays.
I have a "system" (I really do hate that word) in mind, something I want to try.

I ran all of yesterday's games though the filter, the only play would have been LAC tm total Ov 114.
They scored 129.

Today has one spot, Phil tm total Ov 108.

I'm also going to chart a situational play using sides, and will likely discover, AGAIN, why I play totals.
If anything comes from it (a fade play?) I'll start posting those spots too.

No buys today.

Ahhh, what the hell, at 21-14 I'm playing on the house's dime.

Buys:

Phil team total Ov 108

 

[RBD]

Recap: And THAT'S why I track plays for a few weeks before buying any of them. Lost with Philly tm total Ov.

Record: 21-15

The Philly game was on NBA TV. I tried watching but found myself channel flipping. I really find the NBA unwatchable, even with the sound off so I can avoid hearing them play the victim card while calling me a racist, despite having never met me or knowing anything about me.

The tm tot Ov play is now 1-1.
Today's spots: Bos Ov 111', Ok Ov 107'.

As for my experiment with sides, it's at 2-1, Favs 1-0, Dogs 1-1.
It's kicking out a lot of plays (today it has Mia, NYK, Bos, Ok, Det.) I'll track it for 2-3 more days but may end up tightening the parameters to get fewer plays.

The MP has one game that qualifies, Port Ov.
I have the record for this spot at 20-13.

After dropping my play last night, I'll take tonight off and just track the different spots and hope to see an edge developing that can be exploited in the future.
No buys for me.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Posted plays:
the MP had a winner with Ov in Port.
That was a 20-13 spot, now 21-13, 61%, will buy the next ones.

The new stuff I'm working on in the NBA, sides, went 2-3.
Overall it's now 4-4, Favs 2-2, Dogs 2-2; 8 or > is 3-2, F 1-0, D 2-2.
Team totals went 1-1, now 2-2 overall.

With every category at or near .500, I have no edges I can exploit; yet.
I need separation, need one of the plays to develop a winning record to play, or a losing record to fade.

Today's spots:

The NP has Ov in Brook, with a dif of > 13.
NP Overs are 10-19, a solid fade, BUT the Ov is 4-2 when the diff is 13 or >.

Sides, I have Det, Brook, Mia, NO, LAC.
Tm totals Ov I have Det 110 and LAC 109

No buys for me today.
Not sure if I can trust the NP spot using Ov in Char/Brook when it's 67% at just 4 plays, but overall 10-19.
No buys on sides or team totals, need to get more data on these before I can put money on them.

I may add a play later, will update if I do.

 

[RBD]

With the latest line drop down to 121, the Brook spot has the highest differential of any NP this season.
Yes, Overs in the NP are a fade at 13-21, but they're 4-2 at 13 or >.
So . . . I'm on it.
Yes, I know Harden is out, but my plays are math/stat-based, and besides, available rosters are factored into the current number.

Brooklyn is 1-0 in this spot.

Buying now because there is a terrific buy back available for anyone who bought Un the opening number of 230/229', I want to get it now in case it rises before tip off.

Buys:
Char/Brook Ov 221

 

[RBD]

Recap: Lost with the Brook Ov spot.
I stayed off when it was 13 or > (4-2 spot) but when the #'s moved and it became the biggest differential of the season, AND I saw Brook was 1-0 in this spot (Char had no record, 0-0) I had to buy it.
What's the sense of tracking numbers if you're not going to play them?

Got screwed by Charlotte's 11 pt first quarter (yes, a supposedly pro basketball team only scored 6 pts in the first 8 minutes) but was looking great at halftime with 116 scored, meaning I only needed 105 in the second half to push at worst case, an easy number to hit. But, Charlotte scored just 2 pts in the first 5 minutes of the third quarter and killed my play.

Record: 21-16.

I set a new goal for myself. I just beat college basketball. This means I have a + balance in almost every sport I have shared picks in here, college football, NFL, college basketball, and limited play in MLB and boxing.
NBA is the only sport I don't have a profit in, due to my play in the bubble last year.
I was 13-14 reg season, 22-26 post season, for a total of 35-40.
So I was 5 games under .500.
I'm 5 games above .500 in NBA this year.
My first goal is, as always, don't lose money this season
My second goal is, as always, to finish with a profit, any profit.
My new third goal is to finish with more than enough profit to cover the lost juice from last season and some $ on top of that, so I can be comfortable knowing I have a + balance in every sport here, a nice goal to hit.

The new plays I'm tracking don't look like they'll be much help in achieving my goals.
Team totals split yesterday, 1-1, now 3-3 overall.
Sides went 3-2, now 7-6, Favs 4-3, Dogs 3-3.

Today I have . . .
NP Ov 225 in Chi/Utah, diff of > 15.
Same spot I lost with last night, not falling for it again, I'm fading it.

For sides, I have Memphis, Atl, Utah, Port, Phx, Sac.
Tm totals Ov in Atl and Port.

I'll be back with sides later this morning, posting this now as the board is split between 225 and 224', and dropping.

UPDATE: I shouldn't be playing sides, but . . .

Buys:

Chi/Utah Un 225
Milw -3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0. Banged both plays last night, both came home easy, never in doubt.

I think the Milwaukee play was my first side buy in NBA this year? The side stuff I've been tracking hasn't shown any advantages yet, everything coming in at about .500, but I saw that Portland just lost in the same spot on Wednesday night so I thought I'd fade it this time, and it worked out well.

Record: 23-16.

Got back the two losses from earlier this week, back to 7 games over .500.

Yesterday's posted plays, sides went 3-3, team totals 1-1.
The NP Ov lost again with the Utah game I used, that spot is now 10-21, a terrific fade at 67%!

Today, NP has two Unders, Mia and Sac (14-9 record.)

For sides I have Dallas, New York, Minn, Indy, Utah, Ok.
One team total Over, Indy.

No buys yet, going to take a deeper look at the card.
Will post any buys I make.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Posted spots went ...
Sides 5-1
Team totals 1-0.

NP Un went 0-2, good move laying off those.

Overall record, posted spots:
15-10, Favs 9-5, Dogs 6-5
Team totals 5-4

Starting to get a little separation on the sides, 60% overall now, Favs 64%. Not enough data to make them buys, need another week of plays. I'll pick and choose spots until then.

Today I have:
MP Ov in the Battle of LA (21-14)
NP Ov in Boston (10-21)
Sides on Brook, NO, Den.
Brooklyn is 1-0 and this spot.
NO is 0-1.
No team totals

One buy for now, should have bought and posted earlier today what I did my handicapping. I could have had Un 217 instead of 216'. Hope it doesn't cost me...

Buys:
Char/Bos Un 216'
Brooklyn -1'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with a side in an early game, but got it back with the reliable "Fade the NP Over" spot, (10-22 now, a great fade at 68%.)

Record: 24-17

The "Fade the NP Ov" spot kept me over .500 by seven games.
It should have made some of you money, not just a 1-1 push on the day.
How?
Why?
I'll tell you . . .

When you look at a game, and try to decide which team to bet, you look at their strengths and weaknesses. If you don't handicap, and many (most?) bettors don't, and you tail other people's plays, you should also look at the strengths and weaknesses of the handicapper you're looking at.

Anyone who reads my stuff knows my strength is Unders, football and/or basketball, college or pro.
If you had a plus balance for the week, riding Brooklyn with me was okay, but if you were down for the week you should have ignored the side play and taken the Under only.

Handicap the handicapper just as you would a team you were thinking of betting on.

Anyway . . .

Is it possible? Have I isolated a play on sides I can use?
After a 5-1 Saturday, sides went 2-1 yesterday (yes, I played the only one that lost, because they were the only team that had been in this spot before, and they won, the others were all 0-0.)
Here's what I have entering this week for sides:
Overall record: 17-11, 60%
Favs 10-6, 62%, Dogs 7-5 58%
8 or > 7-2, Favs 3-0, Dogs, 4-2
Team totals 5-4.

Need more games for the sample, but so far, looks good, may be into something here. Time will tell.

Other spots:

MP is 43-31, Ov 21-14, Un 22-17, 13 or > is 7-0, 5-0 Ov, 2-0 Un

NP is 24-33, Ov 10-22, Un 14-11, 13 or > is 4-6, Ov 4-4, Un 0-2


Today I have . . .

MP Ov in SA
NP Ov in Wash, Utah
SA and Utah are 13 or >

Sides I have Utah, SA, Phx
Utah is 8 or >
Phx is 1-0 in this spot this season

No buys yet.

Update: I have two NP Overs to consider a fade on, but Tor is 3-0 Ov in this spot, whereas Utah is 0-2, so I'll just take one of them.

Update #2:
SA no longer 13 or >
Wash now 13 or >

Update #3: MISTAKE, sorry, side play is Hou NOT Phx.

Buys:

Utah/Dal Un 223

 

[RBD]

Recap: It was a tight squeeze throughout the game, but I pulled out a W with Utah Un yesterday.

Record: 25-17

Posted plays:

MP Ov was a winner (those are 22-14 now)

NP Ov went 0-2, which is a good thing because it's a fade play.
I chose the one with a stronger team record as Utah was 0-2 in this spot (a better fade) while Tor was 3-0.
I was regretting my choice as the Tor game was Un all the way, while Utah could have gone either way, but I got a W in the end.

The NP Ov is now 10-24, 70%. Instead of choosing spots like I did last night, the current W % calls for a buy every time, until it begins to revert back to .500.

Sides went 1-2. Here's what I have now:
Overall 18-13, Favs 10-8, Dogs 8-5.
8 or > is 7-3, F 3-1, D 4-2.

Every category is in + $, but I want more data before I start believing there is value here.

Today's spots . . .

MP has Mem Ov at 216' or < (216 is the common # right now)
If Milw hits 238 it becomes an Un, 237' across the board right now.

NP has no plays (Damn! I was hoping for more Overs to fade.)

Sides I have Indy, Bos, NO, Mem, Den.
NO and Mem are 8 or >

TT (Team Totals Ov) I have Indy, Bos, NO, Mem.
(TT's are 5-4 this season.)

A lot of sides qualify today, not sure which I'll buy, still a small data sample, no clear directions yet as to play, fade, or ignore because they're at .500.

Buys:

Bos Ov 110

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
I was off on my call on Boston TT. I had 10 different NBA spots to choose from, and I liked the Boston spots, +2 and TT Ov 110, and I liked the stats on the matchup. Went with the TT but it didn't matter which I chose, both plays lost as the Celtics played no defense and had 22 turnovers.

Record: 25-18

Posted plays went 4-6. In retrospect (everything is easy to see with hindsight) the best play, %-wise, was the MP Ov, it had a W Monday night and gave me another last night, I just didn't use it, 23-14 now, 62%.

Today's spots:

NP has Ov in Memphis
I don't like that both teams are playing game 2 of B2B's, tired legs leads to slackers on defense.
And they're a combined 10-7 Over on game 2 of B2B's, a stat that doesn't play in my favor, but NP Ov is 10-24, 29%, so I'll ride with the 71% fade.

Back with sides after I crunch the numbers.

Update: Here's what I have for sides:
Overall 20-16, Favs 11-8, Dogs 9-8
8 or > 9-4, F 4-1, D 5-3
TT 6-7

Every spot has a winning record except for Team Totals, which is one game under .500.
If I adjust the play and use only spots of 8 or > I have less plays and a higher W %.
I'll likely end up doing that, but for now, no changes, I'll keep tracking the same way for the rest of this week, and then make a decision after Sunday's plays. If the overall record is still winning, I'll keep tracking the same way, if it starts to lose, I'll go to 8 or > only. I'll be glad just to have any play that wins for me using sides.

Today's spots:
Indy, Orl, Bos, NO, Atl, Char, Den, Utah.
TT Ov Orl.

(See what I mean? Too many plays to choose from. Choice is good, too much choice is not.)

Indy is 1-1 in this spot, Bos is 0-2, Utah is 1-2.

No side buys for me yet.

Update #2: Added play due to line moves, NP Un in Minn (14-11 spot)
No buy for me.

Buys:

Mem/Atl Un 225

 

[RBD]

Recap: Missed with Un in Memphis.
Record: 25-19

Posted plays went 5-6. I'm 1-2 on the week, down a unit, here's updated records/what I have to work with today:

MP 45-31, Ov 23-14, Un 22-17; 13 or > is 7-0, Ov 5-0, Un 2-0

NP 25-36, Ov 11-24, Un 14-12; 13 or > is 4-8, Ov 4-6, Un 0-2

Sides 23-21, Fav 14-11, Dogs 9-10, 8 or > 10-4, Favs 5-1, Dogs 5-3; TT 7-7

Sides still winning in most categories, losing on Dogs after yesterdays' 0-2. Still worth charting but as I noted yesterday, moving to 8 or > (1-0 yesterday) yields a higher profit.

Today's spots:
NP has Chi/Tor Ov
Chi is 0-1 in this spot
Tor is 3-1 in this spot

Sides has LAL, Cleve, Mil, LAC, Det
Det is 1-1 in this spot, all other teams 0-0
LAL and Det are 8 or >

TT Ov has LAL, Mil, Det
Det is 1-0 in this spot

Missed last night with the "Fade the NP Ov" play, not sure I want to use it again tonight in case it's reverting back to .500, add in the fact that Tor has gone Over 3 of 4 in this spot and it looks like a good one to stay off of. Detroit is worth a look, 1-0 in this spot, side and TT.

Back later if I have any buys.

 

[RBD]

After a loss on Tue and Wed I took yesterday off.
Bad move.
Posted plays went 6-2.
Only good move was staying off the "Fade the NP Over spot" after it failed on Wed, as it lost again last night.

Side spots of 8 or > was 10-4, I had two to choose from yesterday, didn't buy either one, 12-4 now. Ugh.

Here's the updated chart on the play I developed for sides:
27-22, 55%
Fav 16-11, 59%
Dog 12-11, 52%
8 or > 12-4, 75%, Fav 5-1, 83%, Dog 7-3, 70%
TT 9-8, 53%

I have 49 games, a decent size data sample.
I have a winning record on every play, profitable in all but the 12-11 Un spot ( -$10 for $100 players.)
I think I have a viable system for sides!
Time to start buying more of them.

MP is at 45-31, Ov 23-14, 62%, Un 22-17, 56%; 13 or > is 7-0, Ov 5-0, Un 2-0
All plays profitable.

NP is 26-36, Ov 12-24, 33%, Un 14-12; 13 or > is 4-8, Ov 4-6, Un 0-2.
Good fades on Overs and anything 13 or >.

So, lots to work with. Better than throwing darts by buying on gut feel.

My record is 25-19. I have some profit to play with this weekend. After going too conservative last night, I feel like opening it up a bit.

Today's spots:

NP has Un in Orl, Wash
Indy is 1-0 in this spot, Orl 1-0
Wash is 6-3 in this spot, GS 2-1
Wash/GS is 13 or > (0-2)


Sides has Orl, NYK, Phil, Atl, Den, Char, LAC
Atl is 8 or >

TT Ov in Orl, NYK


Buys:

Atl (Wait to buy, -2 is the common # but I see a couple of 1' out there)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0, got a W with Atl -1'.
Record: 26-19

I meant to open up a little yesterday, buy a few different spots, but got busy with other things in life, didn't even get a chance to come back and post the line I got. ATL was anywhere from 1' to 2' so no matter what line anyone got it was a winner as they won by 12.
It was my first buy because it was a strongest rated play I had, as noted in yesterday's post: "Atl is 8 or >." And I gave the record for that play, 5-1, now 6-1.

It's too bad I I was busy and didn't make any other buys, in pocket or in here, because posted plays went 8-3, 2-0 on totals, 5-2 on sides, 1-1 on TT's.

Sides are on a two day run of 9-2, let's see if I can keep it going for at least one more day.

Here is what I have for today:
No Ov/Un spots, MP or NP.
Sides I have Cleveland, Utah, Washington, and Detroit.
Detroit is 8 or >

TT Ov Cleveland

I'm going to check the records of these teams in this spot and I'll be back with some buys.

 

[RBD]

I had a write-up all set to go on Cleveland - 2', but with players out on both sides I'm not going to buy it.
The team total doesn't make sense to me, it's more than the Cavs average per game and it's slightly more than Toronto gives up per game, but somehow I'm attracted to it?

if you're interested, check back in before game time for Detroit, I may add them after Cleveland screws me.

Buys:

Cavs TT Ov 111

 

[RBD]

Recap: Banged a winner with the Cleveland TT spot.
Record: 27-19

I feel good about yesterday's moves.
I stayed off the play I had circled all day, Cleveland -2', and opted for the team total Over instead.
Cleveland lost by 20 points.
Then, instead of going with Detroit in the later game, I decided to bank the unit won on the team total.
And Detroit didn't cover the spread.
So instead of taking a loss on the day I banked another unit.

Posted spots went 2-3.
Today's choices:
No Ov/Un in MP or NP.
Sides I have Denver, New Orleans, Orlando, Toronto, Dallas, Indy, Detroit. That's too many to choose from.
TT Ov I have To and Indy.

while I still have a little time before tip-off, I'm going to check the records on these teams in these spots.
Back with buys if I make any.

 

[RBD]

A good day to watch the Masters and not make any NBA buys as posted plays went 3-6.
The NO game is charted as a loss, but if you bought it when first posted you won by a hook.

I had Den circled as a buy as it had a diff of >8, which was a 6-2 spot, but I didn't get the buy in and after they put up an 8 pt fourth quarter (yes, 8 pts, outscored 31-8 at home in the final quarter) I decided to not make any buys on Tor or LAC, who were also 8 or >.
With a 3-2 week behind me I decided to bank the small profit rather than risk going into the minus.
When handicapping, work in weekly windows (Monday through Sunday for example) and . . .
MAKE YOUR GOAL TO ALWAYS CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH A PROFIT IF YOU CAN!!!!!

Record: 27-19

Updated charts:

MP 45-31
Ov 23-14, Un 22-17
13 or > 7-0, Ov 5-0, Un 2-0

NP 28-36
Ov 12-24, Un 16-12
13 or > is 5-8, Ov 4-6, Un 1-2

Sides 36-32
Favs 19-16, Dogs 17-16
8 or > 13-5, F 6-1, D 7-4
TT 12-10

A few spots in there are worth playing.

Today I have:

NP Ov in Phil/Dal, Wash/Utah
Wash is 0-2 in this spot, Utah, 0-3
Phil qualifies as 13 or >

Sides LAL, Phil, Wash, Chi, Den, Hou
Records in this spot: LAL 1-0, Phil 0-1, Washy 0-1, Den 2-2, Hou 1-0

TT Ov in LAL, Chi
LAL is 1-0 in this spot

Buys:

Wash/Utah Un 235