NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
NP went 0-2
Sides 1-2-1.
SP went 2-1.

NP Ov stayed Un, so that fade is now back at 60%.

The latest tracked play that I'm posting, SP (ON/AGAINST) hit 2 of 3, it's now ON 3-1, AGAINST 7-0.

Today . . .

MP has Un in Brook/Mil.
It's a rare 13 or >, which is 10-0, Ov 7-0, Un 3-0.
But . . .
NP has it as an Un too, at 13 or >, which is a 1-3 spot.
NP also has Port/Bos Un, a 19-8 spot.

Sides has SA, Phx, Tor.

SP has one play, ON NY.

The SP play is hot so I'd like to play it, but I'm not sure the Knicks should be double-digit Away favorites, even playing a team as lousy as Houston. At -10' there's just too much room for them to get a win at < today's number. Biggest they've been as a RF all year long was -4'. Their hot run is behind them now, I can't lay 10' here.

Three days ago, MP and NP both had the same game.
The play lost.
It was an Under, like today's spot.
And . . . it was a Brooklyn game.
Can't pull the trigger on this one either.

Only spot that has me interested actually is Toronto.

I'm probably just going to watch my FCS money today, but if I buy anything I'll post it later.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, had Tor circled, never got back to it, too busy watching FCS games.
I'm a BIG proponent of not varying your unit size within a sport, but I do vary it for different sports, and my college football buys are investments, not small $ like MLB, so I was focused on that yesterday.
Nailed J Mad, now 7-2 here on FCS this season.

Updated charts:

MP 53-33; Ov 25-15 (62%), Un 28-18 (60%)
13 or > 11-0; Ov 7-0, Un 4-0

NP 39-48; Ov 19-29 (60% fade), Un 20-19
13 or > 7-10; Ov 5-7, Un 2-3

Sides 33-22; Favs 14-11, Dogs 19-11 (63%)

SP (ON or AGAINST) 11-1, ON 4-1, AGAINST 7-0

I didn't trust NYK laying 10' in the SP spot yesterday, they won by 25. I have to give NYK and the SP spot more respect this week when deciding on buys.

Today . . .

MP has Phil/Chi Ov

NP has Orl/Det Ov

Sides has NO, Port

SP has 4 spots, all ON, Det, Wash, NYK, Mem


Thoughts on qualifying games:

Phil/Chi is a 62% spot, will take a closer look at it.

Have a NP Ov fade. The record is solid, but I've been unlucky buying it lately.

NYK and Mem play each other so that cancels those two SP spots.

Det has lost 5 of their last 6 SU, 9 of their last 12; not liking that stat, but Orl has lost 7 of 9.
Det qualifies, but weak, still, it's time to take SP spots from "charting only" and use them in buys.

Buys:
Det -1'
Wash -3'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Got a split, 1-1.
Record: Sides/totals: 35-28
Teaser 0-1, -120

Used the latest spot, SP plays, and got a split. Knew Det was weak, barley qualified, but played it anyway based on overall record.

From yesterday: "Have a NP Ov fade. The record is solid, but I've been unlucky buying it lately."
Good move not using the NP Ov fade, saved $ as the game sailed Ov by 20 pts

Sides went 0-2; 33-24 now, Favs 14-12, Dogs 19-12. Not getting much production from them lately (then again, I'm surprised I use sides at all.)

The latest spot, SP, went 2-2 but with two teams playing each other a split was unavoidable in one game.
That play is now 6-3 ON, 7-0 AGAINST, and I may have to lean on it these last few days of the regular season as nothing else is producing W's for me on a steady basis.

And, I just finished 'capping, and . . . no SP spots today. Lovely (sarc).

MP Brook/Mil Un
NP Brook/Mil Un
Sides Tor

Just had Brook and Mil in the same situation (both MP and NP Un) a few days ago. and it won, the # was 242, it landed on 231. That game was MP 13 or > though, a 10-0 spot (3-0 Un); this game is NOT 13 or >.
I didn't play it, it won. As usual, I don't jump on a play I previously stayed off of when it won. No buy (I'd fade and take Ov if anything.)

Same thing with Tor, I said it was the only play I liked Sunday but didn't buy it because I was focused on FCS. It won.
I don't feel like being Johnny-Come-Lately and jumping on it today after missing the opportunity on Sunday.

I have a profit on the season and I want to lock it up so I'm going to play tight these last few games. I want the SP spots, they're the only ones I have confidence in right now, so I'll wait on them, hopefully have a few more before the season ends.

Back with buys if I take anything.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went 3-0. Tor hit as a Side, RD, those are at 15-8 now, 65%, have to buy the next ones.

Today:

MP has Mem/Minn Un (29-18, 61%)
NP has Bos/Orl Ov (20-29, 59% fade)

Sides has Utah (14-12 overall, 9-5 as HF's, but Utah 0-2 as a side play last week, 0-1 as Fav, 0-1 Dog)

SP spots: two plays, both ON, Mem, NYK.
Mem is 0-2 in this spot, NYK is 3-0.

I'm buying the MP spot with Mem/Minn Opened at 237, up to 239 now, wait to buy.
Also buying NYK, may add Mem.

UPDATE: Mem line getting hammered, 238/237' most houses now. Grabbed it at 238


Buys:

Mem/Minn Un 238
NYK +3'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record: Sides/totals: 35-30
Teaser 0-1, -120

I'm the first to say I made a bad choice when I do, but no regrets for yesterday, I chose two plays with strong W %'s. Two weeks ago I was within 3 W's of my season goal. Now, I'm fighting just to stay in the black.

Today:
NP has Atl/Indy Un
Sides has Wash
SP has ON Wash

NP 42-48, Ov 21-29, Un 21-19
Sides 35-24, Favs 15-12, Dogs 20-12
SP ON 7-4, AGAINST 6-0

Two spots match, Sides and SP have Wash, so I'm on it.

Buys:
Wash +3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: Sides/totals: 36-30
Teaser 0-1, -120

Review: Got a W with Washington, qualifying as a Side spot and the new SP spot.
Got a great line buying it early at +3, they closed as 1-2 pt Favs. Late buyers at -2 got a Push.

They almost blew it.
Wash up by 3 pts, 7 seconds left, Raptors have possession - what do you do?
Foul them, right?
Nah, you let VanVleet hit a 3 pt'er and go into OT. (And people wonder why I yell and curse at the TV.)
But, life is about learning from mistakes, so in OT, up by 3pts with 7 seconds left, Scotty Brooks does the right thing this time and has his guys foul Toronto.
Good thing cuz I needed that W.

NEXT!

MP has Den/Utah Ov, 13 or >
NP has Orl/Char Un, Minn/Mia Ov, Cle/Dal Ov
SP has ON Phx

MP Ov is 25-15; 13 or > is 7-0
NP Ov is 21-29, Un 21-20
SP is 14-4, 8-4 ON, 6-0 AGAINST


Den/Utah Ov is the obvious play as an MP 13 or > spot of 7-0, but too many other factors point to an Under.

Got 67% tracking with the SP ON spot, but the problem with this game is NYK came as close to qualifying as a play ON, barely missing by one category I rate games on.
But, there's a reason I stick to the exact parameters for qualifying, and don't buy games that came close.
I don't like that hook, so I'll hold off on buying, but it's very likely I'll buy Phx tonight.

Back with buys if I make any.

Update: Handicapping is like chess, try to see the board from as many angles as you can.
I've been looking at today's spots, trying to come up with an angle to play or fade, and I came up with a different way to measure Ov/Un's.
I don't know if it has value or not (no data collected yet, but I will add it to my daily routine to see if anything develops) but my #'s show Den/Utah spot has only 25% chance to go Over. Hate to pass up that 7-0 record in MP of 13 or > spots, but I'm going to.
The Char and Dal spots come in at approx 50%, no edge there, but Minn/Mia grades out at 71% chance to go Over, so no fade on that one for me.

Looks like a night off for me in NBA.

 

[RBD]

I'm frustrated with my non-play yesterday.
For the second time in a row I laid off of MP of 13 or > and watched it win, and it's 12-0 now.

SP is 14-4, 8-4 ON, and I laid off Phoenix cuz I didn't want to give New York 6' pts. Phoenix blew them out.

I talked myself off of two good plays, have to play smarter if I'm going to close the season the way I need to.

Today:
No totals in MP or NP.
Sides I have Det, Tor, SA.
SP has ON Wash.

Det/Phil Analysis:
Detroit won their last game.
The last time Detroit won two games in a row was way back in March.
This entire season Detroit has only one two games in a row twice.
The Pistons longest winning streak this season is two games.
Conclusion:
Detroit is not a fun team to bet on.

Yes, they're getting 10 pts, but. . . . FIVE of Philly's last seven wins have come by double-digits.

I'm going to use the SP spot.
I'm also going to use two totals from the different angle I'm working on, as mentioned in yesterday's update.
Yes, it's new and I have no data other than it's 3-2, Ov 1-1, Un 2-1, but the last new angle I came up with is the SP spots, and they were 4-0 on my chart before I started posting them, 14-4 now. If this was the beginning of the season, and I had the whole year ahead of me, I'd chart a few more weeks before I start buying them, but the season's coming to an end, I don't have time to wait and see if they work, so I'm going to take a chance and jump right in today.

Buys:
Wash -3'
Mem/Tor Ov (wait; opened 228; 227/226' now)
Ok/GS Un 223'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-3
Record: sides/totals 36-33, teaser 0-1

At the end of the season, when I need to finish strong, I have my worst day of the season.
And, with juice, I'm in the red for the first time since February.
I was thisclose to beating the NBA regular season, now I've only I have six days left to accomplish that goal.

No Ov/Un spots, MP or NP.
Sides has NO, Orl, Phx.
SP has Phx.

Phx is the obvious spot because it's active in two different systems, but it also puts me in that spot I always talk about that I hate - jumping on a play that I didn't take after it wins.
I stayed off Phoenix as an SP spot 2 days ago against New York and they won.
But, like I said, season's ending, I have to take shots where I have winning percentages on plays.

Buys:
Phx -7'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: sides/totals 36-34, teaser 0-1 (-120)

I'm hemorrhaging.
I have four days to try to stop the bleeding and bank 5 units.

Today's spots:

No totals, MP or NP.
Sides has Wash and Hou.
SP has AGAINST Cleveland.

Buys:
Wash +8
Indy -8'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: Sides/totals 38-34, teaser 0-1 (-120)

Okay, banked two yesterday, the Indy W by a 1/2 pt, always nice to win one by the hook instead of getting screwed by it. Good start to the week, I now have a VERY small profit in sides/totals (in sports betting, ANY profit is good, in any season, any sport, and for me, especially so in the NBA.) Now I need to get another W banked to cover the teaser loss.

Updated charts:

MP: 55-35, Ov 26-15, Un 29-20

NP:43-51, Ov 22-30, Un 21-21

Sides: 41-30, Ov 17-14, Un 24-16 (RD 19-11, RF 3-7-2, HD 5-6, HF 11-6)

SP: 16-6, Ov 9-6, Un 7-0

Today:

MP has Mia/Bos Un

NP has Mia Bos Ov, LAC/Tor Ov

Sides has Min (RF), Sac (HF), NYK (RD)

No SP spots today (Damn! Yesterday's play AGAINST Cleve puts SP's at 7-0 AGAINST, was hoping to get another today. Hope I get at least one more chance in the next three days.)

I did a quick skim through my logbook and see four or five times where MP and NO had the same play, but only two times where MP and NP went head to head.
I was surprised to find only two spots, and more surprised to see NP is 2-0.
Mia/Bos just played two days ago and the game sailed Ov by 32 pts. No buy on this one.


Buys:
NYK +5

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: Sides/totals 39-34, teaser 0-1 (-120)

Got the W I needed to cover the teaser loss, back in the + $ side now for the season.
Used my third RD in a row (they're 20-11 now.)

NY tried to blow it, blew a nice Q4 lead and ended up in OT, but I survived.
Note/reminder for 'capping the post season after watching them choke in crunch time last night: despite their recent W streak, the Knicks won't go far in the playoffs, not tough enough and too one dimensional on O, defend Randle and Rose and you beat them.

Today:

No Ov/Un, MP or NP
Sides has Wash, Brook, NO
SP has ON Atl

Conflict between Sides having Wash and SP having ON Atl; lean Atl but no buy.

I'm barely in the + $, so I don't have house money to play with, not going to buy anything unless I have one of my top performers active (MP of 13 or > or SP AGAINST spots.)

 

[RBD]

Be a Better Bettor Newsletter
May 13, 2021

I was leaning towards Atlanta -6 yesterday.
It was a play in a strong system that has been performing well for me.
But their opponent, Washington, was the play in another system I track.
If I didn't have the conflict between the two systems I would have been on the Hawks.

Even with the conflict, I was still leaning towards buying Atlanta right up until tip off.
But "Discretion, valor, etc" - I stayed off the game; no action.
The Hawks won.
By 4 points.

It's advice I try to impart throughout the season - YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY NIGHT.
In fact, it's better for your bottom line if you DON'T bet every night.
And it's good for your brain to take a night off from the stress-infused fun of sports betting, to recharge your batteries.
Bet only when you believe you have a strong play.
When you bet every day you are inescapably forcing bets, and forced bets usually end up in the L column.

End


I saved a unit last night by not taking the Hawks as an SP play. I liked them, but my system for sides called for Washington, and RD's were on a 5-0 run so I took the night off. And stayed above the profit line.

Two days left now. I'm leaning towards taking tonight and tomorrow off, shutting down the regular season and starting up again on Saturday, when the post season begins.
If I lose a game, I go into the red. If I win a game, I still have just a small profit for the season.

My season goal is my sports betting version of the dictum, "Primum non nocere" - First Do No Harm.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some people say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to win money!"
The simple fact is - MOST bettors lose, so the first goal is to have fun, but don't damage your bankroll.
Goal # 2 is to end the season with a profit. ANY profit.
Goal #3 is 67%.

Right now, I have goal #1 and #2 in my hands.
To put them at risk is going to take a very strong qualifying play in these last two days.

Today:

No Ov/Un spots again today. (Good thing I developed a system for sides or I would have a lot of days with no action.)

Sides has one spot, Port.

SP has a play ON NYK
After last night's L, SP plays are 16-7, but the value is in AGAINST spots (On is 9-7, AG is 7-0)
But NY is 3-1 in SP spots, and 1-0 as HF like tonight.

Port is 10 or >, a 10-6, 60% spot.
They grade out at 13. The highest grades this season came in two games, a 13 and 13'; both won.
This will be a very hard spot for me to ignore.

I watched Portland play last night on ESPN. I'm going to check their record in B2B spots, as well as their playoff positioning, to make sure this is a meaningful game for them (pretty sure it is from what I heard while watching last night.)

If I buy anything I'll post it.

 

[LineMovin]

Be a Better Bettor Newsletter
May 13, 2021

I was leaning towards Atlanta -6 yesterday.
It was a play in a strong system that has been performing well for me.
But their opponent, Washington, was the play in another system I track.
If I didn't have the conflict between the two systems I would have been on the Hawks.

Even with the conflict, I was still leaning towards buying Atlanta right up until tip off.
But "Discretion, valor, etc" - I stayed off the game; no action.
The Hawks won.
By 4 points.

It's advice I try to impart throughout the season - YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY NIGHT.
In fact, it's better for your bottom line if you DON'T bet every night.
And it's good for your brain to take a night off from the stress-infused fun of sports betting, to recharge your batteries.
Bet only when you believe you have a strong play.
When you bet every day you are inescapably forcing bets, and forced bets usually end up in the L column.

End


I saved a unit last night by not taking the Hawks as an SP play. I liked them, but my system for sides called for Washington, and RD's were on a 5-0 run so I took the night off. And stayed above the profit line.

Two days left now. I'm leaning towards taking tonight and tomorrow off, shutting down the regular season and starting up again on Saturday, when the post season begins.
If I lose a game, I go into the red. If I win a game, I still have just a small profit for the season.

My season goal is my sports betting version of the dictum, "Primum non nocere" - First Do No Harm.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some people say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to win money!"
The simple fact is - MOST bettors lose, so the first goal is to have fun, but don't damage your bankroll.
Goal # 2 is to end the season with a profit. ANY profit.
Goal #3 is 67%.

Right now, I have goal #1 and #2 in my hands.
To put them at risk is going to take a very strong qualifying play in these last two days.

I usually 'cap NBA first, but there are a few early MLB games so I'm going to start with them today.
Back with today's spots later this morning.

No Ov/Un spots again today. (Good thing I developed a system for sides or I would have a lot of days with no action.)

Sides has one spot, Port.

SP has a play ON NYK
After last night's L, SP plays are 16-7, but the value is in AGAINST spots (On is 9-7, AG is 7-0)
But NY is 3-1 in SP spots, and 1-0 as HF like tonight.

Port is 10 or >, a 10-6, 60% spot.
They grade out at 13. The highest grades this season came in two games, a 13 and 13'; both won.
This will be a very hard spot for me to ignore.

I watched Portland play last night on ESPN. I'm going to check their record in B2B spots, as well as their playoff positioning, to make sure this is a meaningful game for them (pretty sure it is from what I heard while watching last night.)

If I buy anything I'll post it.

Appreciate the guidance!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[gridman]

So True!

So True!

I have always believed in your betting philosophy and have done a pretty good job sticking to it. BUT, there have been times for one reason or another that I just couldn't "stay away". Needless to say that despite some wins, there has been several times where I have gotten burnt (big time). Ah, such is life . . . live and learn.

Keep up the good work - really enjoy your write ups. Will be looking forward to the football season (my biggest love interest).

GM

 

[RBD]

Thanks LineMovin, and, always - thanks for double-checking my math.
I'm grateful for all the help I can get.

Gridman - thanks, glad to help. Biggest difference between winners and losers in sports betting? Discipline.
(By the way: "Will be looking forward to the football season, my biggest love interest."
You're either currently single or in big trouble if the wife sees that!)


I'm always playing around with other game scenarios, looking for an edge.
I don't post more of them because I don't want things to get confusing here, so I track most on paper, and start posting only if they show value.
I have a chart on a situational play that may be worth investing on, a contrarian play - where an overwhelmingly large # of factors say take the Over or Under and I go the other way.
This contrarian concept is the basis for my longest running, most successful system for totals in college football. I don't have a lot of data on this one, and the NBA season is almost finished, but I thought I'd share it here just in case anyone is looking for angles on a game to add to their own 'capping and decision making.

Betting with the Ov or Un that has the high # of factors in its favor is hitting at 40%, which means it's a 60% fade. I like these kind of plays because they fit nicely with two factors I weigh heavily when handicapping:

1 - When a lot of stats point to a play (Fav, Dog, Ov, or Un) it's going to get a lot of play from Joe Public because they LOVE jumping on trends. And I like to avoid being on the same play as Joe P.

2 - The Pendulum Factor, is fact, not theory.
To quote one of my favorite movies, Witness For the Prosecution, as Sir Wilfred says, "The scales of justice may tip one way or another, but ultimately they balance out."
And the same is true with sports betting. Sooner or later, most trends level out.

You see this kind of stuff all the time, "Hey, take the Knicks tonight, they've covered NINE straight games!"
The time to be on that streak was days ago. With each win, the chances increase of the streak ending.
I'm not advocating a bet against every streak, but unless you've been banking on it during the streak, I don't advise jumping on it after it's already well-established.

Anyway, here's what I have charted for tonight's card, plays with 70% or >:
LAC/Char 73% Un, Phil/Mil 73% Ov, Mil/Indy 96% Ov, Port/Phx 80% Ov.

Remember, this is a contrarian play, look for the pendulum to swing back the other way.
Fading Overs is at 56%, fading Unders is at 63%.

Unders may have the higher W % but I'm looking at the two Overs that are 80% or higher.
Only two games on my chart reach that mark, and both stayed Under.
Mil/Indy Ov is getting a lot of action, opened 238' now sitting at 244 (told ya Joe P loves following trends.)
And at 96% I like it Un.
I'll have a little TV action/small $ on it (if it hits, I'll bank it; if it misses I'll buy the fade on Port/Phx to try and recoup), but it's not a recommended buy (the play is too new/not enough tracked history.)
Just posting some additional factors to consider if any of you are looking at those games.

Good luck to all of you tonight . . .

 

[gridman]

Nah

Nah

Wife and I will soon be approaching the 1/2 century mark. Let's just say she tolerates me as long as I play within my means and don't go overboard while only using my slush funds. Been like this since the 80's but at that time only dabbled in football. Now that I'm retired I dabble in baseball, some baskets, and some hockey (small stuff) until my "passion" comes along in September. As I've stated before, I really appreciate your work and always look forward to your write ups and analysis. Keep up your terrific work!

GM

 

[RBD]

Gridman - CONGRATS on almost 50 years, and many more to come.


No buys yesterday, and it was a mistake. I mentioned taking off the last two days (Thur & Fri) of the regular season, but I was incorrect - the regular season ends Sunday.
I don't know where I got Friday from, but with four days left I would have tried a few more buys, ESPECIALLY the Port game I pointed out as a difficult spot to stay off of.
And . . . it won, as a RD, which is a hot spot this week at 6-1.

I did have TV action on the Un in Port and squeaked by with a 2 pt win.
This was from the contrarian play I outlined yesterday. I knew the odds were in my favor that both 80% + games would not lose, and with one being an early start and the other a late start, I had a strategy I like to employ in these situations - buy the early game, if it wins, bank it, if not, buy the second game.

The early spot had the higher % too, so I liked the play, but when I did a score check the game was at a pace for 340 points with just a minute left in the first quarter.
Mil was shooting 60% on FG's and as if that wasn't bad enough for my Under, Indy was at 67% - ON 3 PT'ers!!! They hit 6 of 9.
That game was dead after only one quarter.

I got it back with the Port Under 237, but it was a painful-to-watch win.
After 3 quarters of approx 50 pts each it looked like an easy Under, but they combined for 73 pts in Q4.
And Port was up by 1 pt, 117-116 with ONE SECOND left when they fouled the Suns.
If Phx hits one of two FT's it goes into OT and I lose. Luckily, Booker sunk both freebies.

Today:

MP has LAC/Hou Un (only at 227 or >)
MP Un is 29-21

NP has Den/Det Ov, NO/GS Ov
NP Ov is 23-32

Sides has no plays today

SP has AGAINST Cleve, ON Wash.
This is the same situation as the very first buy I made on an SP play, back on 4/30. The same game has a play ON team playing a team who is in the play AGAINST spot, and, it's the same two teams as it was then - Wash/Cle.

I like that Wash needs one win in their last two games to shut out the Bulls and lockup a play-in spot.
I like that with Char as their final game, THIS is the easier spot to get that one more win.
I like that they're angry after blowing a lead in their last game, wasting the chance to lock up that final spot.
I like that Cleveland is off an upset win over Bos, ending an 11 game losing streak, and may come out flat.
I like the play AGAINST spot, because it's 7-0.

I don't like going back to a play I already won with.
I don't like that I missed out on the best number, Wash -7; it's 8/8' now.
I don't like that I made a mistake in thinking today was the last day of the season and missed out on a W last night with Port, and now I'm jumping back into a buy that's not as strong as that play was.
I don't like that Wash is in the play ON spot, as it's now just 9-8 after losing four straight.

So - what am I gonna do?
I got my reg season sides/totals back into the + side, now I'm going to go to work on my 0-1 teaser record.

Buys:
Wash -2' (2 team teaser, 2nd spot open, -120)

 

[LineMovin]

Do you break out your teaser record from your straight bets record in all sports?

I only ask because I was in your last CFB season thread and didn?t see a teaser record.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RBD]

I don't know if I always break it out in posts, every sport, every season.
I'd have to go back and check.
I'm not even sure why I broke it out in this thread, I could have buried it in my overall record, which was 29-22 at the time. Not sure why I posted it separately, probably as a reminder to NOT DO IT AGAIN.

It's likely I don't always keep a separate record on teasers in football because I use them a few times each season, whereas in NBA basketball it was a very rare play for me.
NBA saw 74 buys, only one teaser.
Kids baskets saw 134 reg season buys (76-58), not one teaser (I'm 99% sure; did a quick scan.)
Tournament - no teasers, 40 buys (22-18)

I know this - even if I don't always post it, I track it and check my record.
If I didn't, how would I know if it's something I should continue or drop?
That's how I know to focus my handicapping time on totals rather than sides, and Unders more than Overs - I record it, I monitor it.
And now that you've given me food for thought, I'll probably break out teasers from sides/totals in the posted record for the upcoming football season - it's not a bad idea, it'd help with future buying decisions as the year moves forward.

I use teasers sometimes in football to get off or on certain key numbers, but in general I don't think teasing is a very good idea, especially in baskets (at least not for my play.)
Look at the one L I have - had I NOT teased it, I would have banked a W.
And because I missed with the second part of the teaser I took a -120 hit, instead of +100.

Today I actually regretted doing it right after I bought it.
I guess we'll know in a few hours from now if it was the right move or not.

 

[RBD]

Recap: Won the first game of a two game teaser.

Like I said, I regretted it as soon as I bought and posted it.
Original write-up was for Wash -8. While I was writing and editing it went to 8'. I went with the teaser instead of -8/8' and possibly cost myself a winner, which is exactly what happened the other time I used a teaser. Now I'm stuck trying to find something for the second game.
And we're in the last two days of the season, when there's an extra factor in handicapping most of the games - who's playing, who's resting, who's coasting, who's really trying to win.

Handicapping is difficult enough without added factors to have to consider. I may just keep game two open until the playoffs, when I know I'll be getting maximum efforts from both sides. Depends on what games qualify as spots for today and tomorrow I guess.

Today:

NP has Phx/SA Ov (23-32 record on these spots)
Sides has Chi (RD 22-12), Mil (HD 5-6)

That's it, slim pickings, and I don't like any of them.
I was hoping for an SP AGAINST play, 8-0 after yesterday's W.
Chi is a possibility, I'll take a closer look.
Probably a baseball day for me today.

Update: No buy recommendations, but in case anyone is looking for an angle on the Miami game tonight, I may have something.
On Thursday, I mentioned the play where I look for a trend to reverse when it's at 80% or higher. The record ON 80% or higher plays is 1-4 (1-3 on Ov, 0-1 on Un.) Obviously not a lot of data still, but four spots look good to fade today:
LAL/Indy Un, Charl/NY Un, Bos/Min Ov, Mia/Mil Ov.
The LA game is on TV, so I took a little LA team total Over action, looks good at halftime so does the New York game.
Posting in case anyone's looking for in-game live betting, halftime adjustments, or an angle on the Miami game which doesn't start until later.