NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

Recap: 3-1
Record: 13-12

It was tight, right up until the end, but Philadelphia won and covered, giving me a win on a very rare more-than-one-unit buy.
Back in black now.

Yesterday: "Favs are 11-3, Dogs, 7-3. Totals are doing well, too, Ov 7-4, Un 5-4. It has Brook and Un."
Updating to include Brook and Un in their last game, and last night's four plays, this is now Favs 12-3, Dogs 8-4; totals Ov 8-5, Un 6-4 (number of games for sides and totals aren't equal because I didn't handicap and chart totals at first.)
Tonight, just like in their last game, it has Brook and Un.

MP has Mil/Brook Ov, 4-5 spot
Sides has Brook, Favs are 10-6, HF 7-6

Mil opened -1, now it's Brook -2. Don't I have a stat somewhere in here where it gives the record in the postseason for Flip-Flop Favs (where the team that opened as the dog becomes the favorite)?
Let me go check, back in a minute.
Okay, a quick check shows I have FF Favs 4-1 ATS.

Buys:
Brook -1'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 13-13

Nets score just two points in OT, at home, in an elimination game.
Pit-ful. Of course if Hardin could hit a three-pointer (he was 2-12, including two misses in the final minute or so) they wouldn't have needed OT in the first place.

As the semi-finals begin, I want to do an accounting of the 13-13 including juice so I know where I'm at as we go into these last two rounds. I have an extra .1 in the loss column because of the teaser that was -120 not - 110, and I have an extra .5 for the game I put 1.5 on, putting me at -.9 or, based on a $100 average bet, -$90 for the postseason.

MP has LAC Ov, Atl Un, 12&12, Ov 6-7, Un 6-5
SP has ON Phx, 5-5
Sides has:
LAC, dogs are 3-14, RD 2-11
Phil, favs are 10-7, HF 7-7
WF has LAC, 4-12 spot

The play I lost with yesterday is now 20-8 sides, favs 12-4, dogs 8-4; totals 14-10, Ov 8-5, Un 6-5.
Today it has: Phx, Phil, and both games Ov.


Buys:
Phx -4
Phil -6'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1, -$10
Record: 14-14, - $100

Buys:
Phx (wait, see if the hook drops off of 4')
LAC/Phx Ov 222'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record; 14-16, -$320

I'm not doing anyone any favors with my NBA play; sorry.
Down 3 units is no big deal in the regular season, but post season is getting shorter, fewer games left means fewer opportunities, and last night's 0-2 hurt, puts me in a bit of a hole with limited chances to recover.

Updated charts:

MP 6-5, Ov 5-5, Un 1-0

NP 14-12, Ov 7-7, Un 7-5

Sides 13-24, Favs 10-9, Dogs 3-15; RD 2-12, RF 3-0, HD 1-3, HF 7-9

TR is 4-6, Ov 3-3, Un 1-3
TR team totals 13-5, Ov is 3-2, Un 10-3

The current spot I've been leaning on the last few days, and lost two with last night, is 21-10, Faves 13-6, Dogs 8-4, totals are Ov 9-7, Un 6-5

SP is 6-8

WF's are 4-13.

I have a few stats that are usable, have to hope they don't revert back to .500.

Today:

NP has Un. This is a 7-5 spot.

TR team totals has Atl Un 109

The current spot I've been using has no play on the side, but has a play on the Un, this is a 6-5 spot.


I've missed out on the best #228, but Unders are usually good to me, so I'm buying it. Hope the TR team total Un stays true to form at 10-3 and helps keep this game a low scoring affair.

Buys:
Atl/Mil Un 226

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 14-17, -$430

Review: Close, but no cigar. With 5 minutes left in the 4th I had a very good chance at staying Under IF it didn't turn into a free throw festival, but six made FT's in the final 17 seconds killed me. Not to mention the Bucks inability to rebound and close out the game.

I now need four W's just to get back to even; not an enviable position with the season's end drawing near.
I've set a goal for myself, as all bettors should, when winning or losing.
Set a ceiling. If you gain X amount of units - take the money and run.
Set a floor. If you lose X amount - shut it down.
My limit for NBA losses is 10 units.
If I hit it, I walk away and lick my wounds, but I DON'T keep throwing good $ after bad,

Today:

NP has LAC/Phx Un; record 7-6

Sides has LAC; 3-15

WF has LAC; 4-13

SP has Phx; 6-6

CP (the Current Spot I've been using these last few days) has Phx; 13-7; Ov; 9-7

Let's dissect them:

NP has an Un; record is avg at 7-6, and this spot lost last night, though barely.

Sides makes a good case for Phx as it's 3-15 and says take LAC. This play is fortified by WF, a 4-13 spot that also says take LAC. Both those spots are offset by the CP 13-7 spot.

Just gut feel, taking stats out of the equation, I like LAC at home. Here's why:

They lost the first two games, but both were close.
In game one, they were tied at the end of 3Q's, and only 2 pts down with 20 seconds left to play.
In game two, they had the lead with 9 seconds left, AND they were on the FT line, but Paul George inexplicably missed both shots. That didn't help, but it's not what killed them - the inability to get a defensive rebound on a missed shot on what should have been the Suns final possession led to the alley oop to Ayton and the Clips lost by one point.

My point is - these teams are pretty evenly matched. Which means home court, plus motivation for being down 2-0 in the series, and being a dog, makes LAC look like the play.

They lost the first two to Utah on the RD and came back home to win game three by 26 pts.
Yes, Phx is on a 9-0 run, SU, but most of those came against an over-matched Den team that doesn't play good defense, and an over-rated Lakers squad.

If I go with my gut feel and take LAC, I'm ignoring some pretty good system plays at 3-15 and 4-13, but I think that's what I'm going to do. I'll be back with a buy after some more research and soul searching.

Update: Half the board has added the hook. I don't think it will get to 2, but I'll wait a little longer.

Buy:

LAC +1'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 15-17, -$330

Review: Okay, got a unit back last night. Wasn't easy to ignore the system stats I had, but in the end, going with my gut feel analysis on the game turned out to be correct.
Had I lost I would probably be doing a write-up cursing myself out for ignoring my systems, but I'll save that for another day.

Today:

NP has Un (this play won last night; lost in gm 1 of Atl/Mil, but, barely. Record 8-6.)

Sides has Atlanta (this play won with LAC last night, but is still just 4-15.)

WF has Atl (won last night, but still just 5-14.)

Tonight, I'd prefer to fade Atl in the sides and WF play, but -7' leaves too much room to win SU but lose ATS. I'd also like to try the Un again. I lost with this spot in gm 1 but it was close.
It missed by 3 pts due to:
a late flurry of FT's (could happen again if the game is close)
Atl hitting 50% on FG's (not gonna happen again)
On the other hand, both teams avg'd approx 23% on 3 pt'ers and that # will very likely go up.
With my current $ balance, it's best to avoid games with no strong stats or gut-feel analysis.

Might take the night off. Will post if I buy.

Update: Accidentally left off the above write-up: RD's are 2-12. So, I made a buy, may add one more. Going with the side/dog, RD, and WF fade, grabbed an 8 while they're still out there.

Buy:

Mil -8

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 16-17, -$230

Okay, got another unit back by utilizing three strong stats:
Sides/dogs now 4-16, RD's 2-13, WF 5-14.

Today:
Sides has LAC, WF has LAC.

This is a tricky one because Phoenix opened -1 but now there are pic 'ems readily available as well as LAC -1.
So again it's the question of do I chart it based on the opening line or where it closes? I can use either one I choose but it has to be consistent or the records don't have as much value. I'm not sure what I've been using with NBA, I know in college football a game that qualifies at the beginning of the week can come off the chart based on line changes by Saturday game time.

Another factor to consider, if the common line becomes LAC -1, then we have a flip-flop favorite. I have to go through the charts or posts here to check the record on those but I'm pretty sure the team that becomes the favorite is 4-1? Something like that.

Might be a good day to take off if nothing really strong sticks out to me. I'll post if I buy anything.

Update: LAC now the fav across the board.
Flip-flop favs are 4-2 ATS this postseason.
I can make a case for either side, stat-wise, and I have no strong gut feel either way on tonight's game.
No buys for me.

Update#2: LAC -1 means they no longer qualify as WF, side/dog plays.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

All in all, a pretty disgusting game.
We're supposed to be down to the four best teams in the NBA yet we're seeing quarters of 14, 15, and 16 pts??!! And no, for the most part, it wasn't good defense. It was poor shot selection and lousy shooting.
If you put up 14 points in the fourth quarter at home in a tight game in the playoffs you deserve to lose. Of course, you could easily flip that around and say if you only score 15 points in the fourth quarter of a tight game on the road in the playoffs you deserve to lose, too.

If you bought LAC early, I guess you could say you took advantage of the WF record for fades, but in the end they became the favs all across the board so, like college football I'll use the closing line for record keeping.

Today:

NP has Mil/Atl Un, 9-6 spot

Sides has Atl, 4-6 overall, HD 2-3

WF has Atl, 5-14

Leaning Milwaukee. Have all day to keep looking at it, thinking about it, we'll update if I have a buy.

 

[JaneVanceek]

I have been thinking for several weeks about trying to start betting money on basketball. Namely, the NBA, because I've been following basketball since childhood and even played for the team at school, but for some reason, I'm afraid to bet money, I'm not sure... But I see here people understand their forecasts in detail and fully justify their choice for the right bet. So, in short, I will get a salary, and I will actively follow this topic. I hope one day I will decide to bet because I like to watch basketball like this and still earn money on it, isn't it wonderful?

_____________________________________

www.americanodds.com/nba/picks

 

[RBD]

Jane,
Thanks for stopping in.

If you're thinking of betting on basketball (or any sport) as a hobby, have fun.
Start with small $ limits, and see how it goes. It's a learning process.

If you're thinking of betting as a primary (or even secondary) source of income, think again.
It is very difficult, and MOST people fail.

If you're looking for fun, or a challenge (you against the books) there are different ways to participate.
I'll be happy to help as you proceed.
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ASK AS MANY QUESTIONS AS YOU'D LIKE.


No buys last night, and it was a missed opportunity.
The NP Un spot won, but was just 9-6 (60%) going in.
Don't get me wrong - I'll gladly ride a 60% play, but also active was the sides/dogs (4-16, an 80% fade) and the WF spot (5-14, a 73% fade.)
(I incorrectly posted sides/dogs at 4-6 instead of 4-16, but anyone following along could have picked up on that mistake as there have been way more than just 10 spots in this play this post season.)

Today:
Sides has LAC, a 4-17, 80% spot; RD's 2-13, 86% spot
WF has LAC, 5-15, 75% spot

I have to ride the %'s tonight, plus, do I sense a little quit in LAC as they face elimination? I hope so, because I'll likely need it - while the Suns are up 3-1, only one of their wins surpassed the # on tonight's game, 5', and that one was only by a hook. They've won by 6, 1, and 4
I have no feel for which way tonight's number will go, so I'll wait to buy. Worst case, it goes to 6 and if it lands on 6 I'd get a push not a win.

Update: The hook has dropped off the game at a couple of houses; if a few more disappear I'll buy and post at -5.

Update #2: I only see one -5 now, and one -6 has shown up. Like said, I have no feel for which way this line will go. I'm going to monitor throughout the day, if I see a few more -6 pop up I'll grab a 5' and post an update.

Update #3: Plenty of -5' left but no more -5 anywhere, and -6 now showing at more houses. Bought.

Buys:
Phx -5'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 16-18, -$340

Can't find fault in my buy, I had strong #'s in my favor, in a few different categories.
Only regret is I was in that situation I loathe - stayed off a play, it wins, jump on it the next day, and . . .
Didn't play these same stats Monday and they won.

Today:
Sides has Mil -6'; favs are 10-10, no edge
RF's are 3-0, have an edge there but is it enough to risk a play when I'm down?
On the other hand, I'm running out of time, if I'm going to beat the post season I have ground to make up.

No buys, will post if that changes.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 16-18, -$340

Can't find fault in my buy, I had strong #'s in my favor, in a few different categories.
Only regret is I was in that situation I loathe - stayed off a play, it wins, jump on it the next day, and . . .
Didn't play these same stats Monday and they won.

Today:
Sides has Mil -6'; favs are 10-10, no edge
RF's are 3-0, have an edge there but is it enough to risk a play when I'm down?
On the other hand, I'm running out of time, if I'm going to beat the post season I have ground to make up.

Update: Tm totals has Atl Un; record 10-4 (this play lost with Atl on 6/23)

No buys, will post if that changes.

 

[RBD]

Here's the situation/question I faced yesterday:

"RF's are 3-0, I have an edge there but is it enough to risk a play when I'm down?
On the other hand, I'm running out of time, if I'm going to beat the post season I have ground to make up."

The answer was clear - "running out of time" and "having ground to make up" are NOT reasons to put money down on a game. That's asking for trouble. Taking the day off and not playing Mil as a RF was the right call.
If you have a feel for a game, or strong stats, go ahead, play it. If you're on house dime - have fun.
Lacking both of those yesterday I took the day off.

I did have a little fun $/TV rooting interest bet - Taylor Ov 10' pts, rbnds, assists.
He hit two 3 pt'ers and a FG, had 8 pts at the end of Q1. Looking good, right?
He added 2 rebounds, and I'm at 10 at halftime, with the entire second half left.
He gave me NOTHING in Q3, and because of the blowout was pulled along with the other starters early in Q4. Missed by a hook!

Today? Nothing fits any of the situations I cap.
No buys.

 

[RBD]

With the pic 'ems gone and Phx -1 all over the board, tonight now has:

Sides: LAC, this spot is 5-17, HD's 2-4
WF: LAC, 6-15

I like LAC for a few different reasons, but I'm not going against three strong stats that say fade 'em.
No buys for me, just updating for record keeping and in case anyone is looking for angles for tonight.

 

[RBD]

With none of my plays active, I looked at the game from a standard POV, who do I like, and why.
I leaned to LAC because:
1 - they were facing elimination
2 - they were at home
3 - off a W in their last game, for a little momentum
4 - the line was pic 'em

I didn't look at the game after the morning 'cap, but revisited it about an hour before tip off, saw that because the line went from pic 'em to Phx -1' three solid stats were now active, side dogs at 5-17, HD's at 2-4, and WF's at 6-15.
I stayed off the game, and it was a mistake. Making mistakes is part of life, but if you're going to be sucessfull you have to avoid making the same mistake twice. Last night, I did the exact same thing I did on June 27, when I ignored Atl as a HD at 2-3 and WF at 5-14.

Today:
NP has Ov, this spot is 5-5
Sides has Atl, 5-18, RD 3-13
WF has Atl 6-16

So, now I'm in that hated spot again - taking stats after I didn't use them the night before when they won.
Same spot I was in on 6/28 when I lost.
Still, I'm not letting these stats go ignored again, from now to the end of the playoffs.

Buy:
Mil -2'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 17-18, -$240

I trusted the record of the situational plays I use and got a W.
Sides/dogs now 5-19 (79%), RD 3-14 (82%), WF 6-17 74%)
Hope I get at least one or two more before this season ends.

One game under .500, three W's from a profit, with a minimum of five games left, max of nine.
It's going to be difficult, but possible.

Saturday:

Sides has Atl, favs are 10-11, HF 7-10

TR team totals has Atl Un, current #109'
Record on these is 10-5.
These are usually a fade spot, but this post season it's a 67% play ON, not a fade.
BUT . . .
I think the 10-5 is a glitch, and the fade is still the way to go.
The ten W's came from LAL, GS, and NYK, remove them and it's 0-5, which is closer to where I would expect it to be based on history.
AND . . .
Atl is 0-2 in this spot.

I think the game total has a better chance of going up rather than down, but I'll wait to buy, and monitor the news for injury updates. Maybe I can shake off the hook, worst case it goes to 110 and I get a push if it lands there.

Update: I grabbed 109', plenty of them out there but also see 110 now.

Buy:
Atl team total Ov 109'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Post season record: 17-19, -$350

Tough loss on Atl team total Over 109'.
The play looked like it had no chance after a slow first quarter and a 19 pt Q2. Then they had a good Q4 and with 3:49 I only needed 9 pts, a very easy mark to make. But, they missed FOUR of their next FIVE shots, including two layups by Young.
A Bogdanovic 3 pt'er got me to 106 with 1:20 left, need 4 more pts, a very makeable #.
Young hits 1 of 2 FT's, and with 54 seconds left I just need them to hit a 3 pt'er. But . . . no.
And I'm back to two games under .500 for the post season, four W's from a profit with just 4-7 games left.

Today:
Sides has Phx; sides are 10-12 as favs; HF's 7-11

Was hoping for something stronger. Leaning towards taking the 61% play fading the HF.
Will update with any buys I make.

Update: Like I said, I want to fade the 61% spot and take Mil, but it's too hard to ignore the popular trends on home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, 15-3 ATS, 16-2 SU. Those are some strong numbers to play against.
But I don't like jumping on trends either.
That 0-1 in teasers has been bothering me all post season, maybe this is the spot to use one?

No.

Any play I make would, I feel, be like I'm forcing it due to post season negative balance and the few # of games left.
No buys.

 

[RBD]

No buys game 1.

Today:

Sides has Phx
Sides/favs are 11-12, HF's 8-11

Tm Total has Phx Ov 113
Tm Totals Ov are 3-2

I'm buying something, will post after more research.

Update: Here's what I'm looking at, Suns -4', Suns team total Ov, and Bridges Ov either pts alone (10'/11') or pts, rbnds & assists (16'). I'll post a buy notice after I finish researching, make my final decision, and place my bets.

I used Bridges Ov 16' for pts, rbnds, assists in game one, ended up short when it landed on 16.
His rebounding is all over the place, some games of 4-5, some he only has 1-2. His PPG look steadier and that's what I'll focus on over the next hour or so as I look deeper.

Update: No more 10' on Bridges, only 11' left out there. I should have grabbed the Ov earlier today. Pass.

Buy:
Phx -4'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Playoff record: 18-19, -$250

Well, the win with the Suns takes some of the sting out of not posting Bridges Ov 11' pts.
Here's what I came up with yesterday:

He averaged 13' PPG during the regular season.
He was averaging 12 PPG in home playoff games.
In three games vs Milwaukee he scored 16, 15, & 14.

The 11' that the books offered was a bad number.
The 10' that Beton offered was a really bad number, which is why it was bought and moved to 11'.

The prop was a winner before halftime.
He ended up with 27.

Back tomorrow with spots/buys for game three.

 

[RBD]

Today:
TR Phx/Mil Ov, record on this spot is 3-3
TR Phx team total Ov, record on this spot is 4-2

One buy for now, may add a prop or two later.

Buys:
Phx Ov 109