NBA 2020-2021

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Well, here it is - the final day of the regular season.
There's a full card, every team is playing.
The big question is which teams are trying to win, which teams are resting players getting ready for the postseason?

I hope somebody caught yesterday's update and took a shot with the Miami game Under, after all the morning fades covered. It was a close one, but a W.
Anybody?
The NY spot needed OT to win, but it shouldn't have.
After quarters of 63, 54, and 58, all it needed was a measly 37 in Q4, but they only put up 33.
The 80% or > trend is now 1-8, Ov 1-5, Un 0-3.
A very nice fade.

Today:
No totals, MP or NP.
Sides has SA, Atl, Phil, NO, Dal, Den, LAC.
SP has ON Atl, ON NYK.

Okay, a lot to think about, a lot of choices.
Unfortunately no MP Ov of 13 or >, and no SP AGAINST spots.

I'm going to run my MLB #'s now, then back to NBA to look into who needs to win today for playoff spots, and who's jockeying for a better position. After that I'll run the 80% or > trends to see if I come up with any plays there.

I'll be back if I have any recommended buys, or with an update like yesterday for the 80% trend spots if anyone's interested.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Reg season ends. Below, a summary.

My record:
Sides/totals 39-34
teaser 0-1 (-120)
I have one open teaser, a 5' pt two teamer, 120/100


MP went 53-37, 59%.
NP went 45-53, 46%.
MP spots did okay, NP spots had no value; for a short time they provided a good fade for Overs.

I wasn't getting much action/profit from totals, so I went to work trying to come up with a system for sides.
Working with sides is rare for me. How rare? I gave out 174 buys in college hoops this past season - not a single side; all Ov/Un. How did it work out, experimenting with sides?
After some early season testing I fine tuned the qualifying parameters and they went 51-36, 58%, not bad.

As always, I had 3-4 other situational spots I was working on, shared some here after I saw decent results.
The 80% or > trend reversal went 1-8. I'm looking forward to tracking it for a whole season next year.
The ON/AGAINST plays were barely profitable with the ON spots, but the AGAINST spots may turn into a play, finishing 8-0.
I don't expect to get many spots from these two latest systems during the post season, but I'll run the numbers, just in case.

I hit my primary goal of not losing to a sport I am new at and don't really like.
I hit my secondary goal of gaining a profit, very small, but not unappreciated.
I didn't hit 67%, but did not expect to, not in NBA. Not yet anyway.

I missed my goal of gaining enough units to cover my loss from the NBA bubble season, the only season I have not showed a profit in. But I cut into it, and that's a good thing, and I still have a chance to bank additional units in the post season.

I made progress, came up with a few situational plays that worked, spots that will hopefully help to make next season even better. And that's all I can hope for in any sport, any season - improvement.

Now - onto the playoffs.
See ya tomorrow . . .

Update: I finished 'capping, here's what I have:
NP has Wash/Bos Ov, SA/Mem Ov (NP Ov reg season was 24-32; a 57% fade)
Sides has Char (RD's reg season were 22-14, 61%)
SP has AGAINST LAL
And the trend reversal 80% or higher spot has GS/LAL Un.

The SP spot breakdown:

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I do believe in "Cui Bono?" and the league certainly benefits from having their biggest brand advance in the playoffs. And I don't trust adam silver. That guy looks guilty to me. Guilty of what, I don't know, but something.

LAL has won 4 of the last 5, including the last two, 2/28 and 3/15, by 31 pts and 26 pts. And they were without Anthony Davis.

AGAINST spots are 8-0, so they deserve a closer look, but that was regular season - will it be effective in a post-season play-in game?

LAL can lose and still advance by beating the winner of the 9 vs 10 game, but GS is only getting +4', not nearly enough to entice me to bet them in this spot.

The Trend Reversal spot breakdown:

Not a lot of data, just started tracking this a week ago, but I love the premise (trends reversing.) This concept has served me well on other plays.

At 80% or higher, the record for the trend to continue is 1-8; Ov is 1-5, Un is 0-3.

This game grades out at 96%. I only have one game graded at 90% or higher and it won (a loss for faders.)
But that was an Over (Indy, posted on 5/13), not an Un like this spot

LAL and GS have each been in this spot once, and both games went Over

You would think Joe Public would be all over the Over in this one, but the opening 222 is down to 219'.
This line move is good for fading the Under but when is the right time to buy this spot? Waiting seems to be the right thing to do for now, but come game time I would expect it to go higher, so I'll wait and watch, but I'm definitely buying this one.

Update #2: Gm 2 of the teaser bought, same team as I used in Gm 1, "Dance with the one that brung ya."

Update #3, Tue, 5/18: SA/Mem now qualifies as a NP Ov.



Buys:
GS/LAL Ov (wait to buy)
Wash +7' (part two of open teaser)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Post-season Record: 0-1 (-120)

Review: Has Westbrook scored yet? Biggest game of the season, and he turns ghost, 6-18 FG, 0-4 from 3 pt range, just 20 pts and almost half of those came from FT's. That's why he's a star of the league but not a superstar.

And can someone tell me why, for my first post-season buy, I chose a play that was not from one of my systems??!! Why keep data in so many categories just to use something else?

Buying early was a mistake, too. I did a lot of reading yesterday, and too many people - sportswriters, pundits, and players - were on Washington, simply based on the two teams performance down the stretch - Boston sucked, Wash was hot.
I have a long-held sports betting maxim - "When almost everybody is on one side, either go the other way or lay off the game because the bookies do not stay in business by paying everyone."
It's not 100% foolproof, but it'll save your ass more often than not.
No way I would've bought that game yesterday. I thought the teaser pt differential might save me, but no.

I did not buy the LA game Ov yet, not sure if I will, but waiting was the right move as it's down to 218 now, 5 pts down from the opening 223. I'm going to run some more numbers, do some more research, and make a decision later. The difference in my confidence on the play, from yesterday (when I was positive I'd buy it) to today is this: I'm feeling a little snake-bit after watching Westbrook last night - if LAL (the #1 defense) shuts down Curry there's no chance this goes Over.
The trend reversal of 80% or higher is a solid play though, so I'm likely still going to buy it.

Posted plays went 0-2.
The side play on Char lost (taking down my strong RD spot.)
The Wash game stayed Un, but that was a fade-if-anything NP Ov spot.
I have another of those active today in SA/Mem.

Today's spots:
NP has SA/Mem Ov (24-32 reg season, 0-1 post-season; 57%)
SP has AGAINST LAL (0-0 post-season, 8-0 reg season.)
TR (Trend Reversal of 80% or >) has GS/LAL Un (0-0 post-season, 0-3 reg season; fade is 3-0)

Back with buys after I run the plays through the updated lines to see what still qualifies.

Update: # rising, grabbed it now at 218

Buys:
GS/LAL Ov 218

 

[RBD]

Recap:0-1
Post season record: 0-2, Ov 0-1, teaser 0-1

Review: With only about 4 minutes left in the second quarter, the Lakers were shooting in the low 20's.
Yes, Green played awesome defense all night long, but it wasn't defense that killed any chance for an Over, it was piss-poor shooting from LA with a pitiful 22 pt Q1 and an even worse 20 in Q2.

Sides are 0-1, but the BP Over fade is 2-0 now after the SA/Mem game.
Laying off the SP AGAINST spot on LAL was a bad call, 9-0 reg/post season now.

Nothing fits any of my systems today, but I may buy Washington.
I can't see them playing poorly in a second post-season game, and I think Indy rose to the occasion vs Charlotte, despite missing key players, and it's hard to get up like that two games in a row.

On the other hand, I'm not off to a good start at 0-2, probably should wait until I have a system spot.

I'll post if I buy.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

No systems active today.
CORRECTION: MP has Mem/GS Ov.
This spot is 0-0 post season, closed out the reg season at 26-15, 63%.

'Capping Saturday's games I have a spot.
NP has Ov in Mia/Mil.
This spot is 0-2 in the post season, and was a decent fade in the reg season at 57%.
It's 227 across the board but there are one or two houses at 226'; it opened at 228 so I'm buying today before it goes any lower.

Buys:
Mem/GS Ov 221
Mia/Mil Un 227

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-2, Ov 1-1, teaser 0-1, sides 0-0

Review: It took OT to get there, but I got a W.
Had a really good pace at the end of the first half, but GS played poorly in the second half, and for their effort their season is over.

I just re-ran the numbers in case I missed anything yesterday, but I have nothing to add to today's card.

Buys:
Mia/Mil Un 227

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0

Record: 2-2
Breakdown: Ov 1-1, Un 1-0, teaser 0-1

Even OT couldn't hurt the Under in Mia/Mil, and the NP Over spot moves to 0-3, a perfect fade thus far.

Today:

MP has Mem/Utah Ov.
The play is at 217 or <.
The common # right now is 217.
This play is 1-0 in the post season (Mem/GS, which needed OT to go Ov.) This play was 26-15 regular season.

NP has LAL/Phx Ov, Atl/NYK Ov (at 213 or <),
Mem/Utah Un (at 217 or >.)

Did NOT expect to get this many spots to choose from with only four games on the card.

The LAL/Phx spot is > 15. I have to go through my charts, I think I have a record on NP Ov at 13 or > during the regular season, I want to see what it is before deciding to buy this spot or not.

There's a conflict with MP and NP on the Mem/Utah game.
I think H2H favors MP in this situation, but as noted above, Mem needed OT to go Ov in this spot last game.

SP has play ON Washington, and ON Mem.
SP is 1-0 post season, but that was an AGAINST spot.
ON was 11-9 regular season.

I'll be back with buys after I 'cap to see if I have any trend reversal spots.

Update: No trend reversal spots.
Ran a quick check through my log book and found that NP Ov of 13 or > was 2-6. I really don't like the number on the LAL/Phx game, I think it's low, but my stats say fade the NP Ov at any number, and more so with a diff of 13 or more. Not happy to do it but looks like I got to take that one Un.

Buys:
LAL/Phx Un 213

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
I didn't like the number I was getting on LAL/Phx at 213, but as I noted in yesterday's post my stats said, "Take the Under" as the NP Fade the Over spot was at 3-0, and reg season stats said when it's 13 or > the record is 6-2. And my stats were on the money, as the game stayed Un by 24 pts.

Record: 3-2
Breakdown: Ov 1-1, Un 2-0, teaser 0-1

A really good weekend.
In the NBA I went 1-0 Fri, 1-0 Sat, 1-0 Sun for a perfect 3-0.
In MLB I went 3-2 on Fri, 1-0 Sat, and took Sunday off.
7-2 overall, NBA post season in + $ now, and MLB bankroll up to $700 for a $100 bettor.

Do I have anything to work with for NBA post season games this week?
Hell yeah.
Sides are 0-1, no help there, but . . .
MP is 2-0, both plays Ov.
NP is a perfect 0-6, the NP Over fade is now at 5-0.
And the SP spots are also perfect at 3-0, ON is 2-0, AGAINST is 1-0.

Today . . .
NP has Mia/Mil Ov
Sides has Mia +4'
SP has AGAINST Mil

Mia qualifies for two plays, sides (0-1) and the SP AGAINST Mil spot (1-0), but one of the other plays I'm charting for the playoffs says take Mil, and that one has a 3-0 record thus far.
Still, I already stayed off one SP AGAINST spot, and it won, this after it went 8-0 in the reg season; 9-0 now.
I'd be on Mia if it wasn't for that 3-0 spot I have.

I also don't like the way Butler was bitching and whining in game one, pointing his finger at his teammates.
Call them out once (like he did towards the end of the season, when he called them "soft") and it can be motivational. Do it too much and it achieves the opposite, it causes resentment which leads to a fissure.
And with a game one performance that saw him go 4-22 (15%) from the field and just 2-9 on 3 pt'ers, Butler has no right to point the finger at anybody right now.
Still, if the line goes to +5 or more I might take Mia anyway.

Have a NP Ov fade (5-0) but no stat remains perfect, is this the game to jump off the gravy train?

I may take the day off. There are a lot of games left to be played in the post season, I'm in the mood to be a little choosy today, and gather some more data to use moving forward.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
I had a few spots active, including two undefeated plays:
NP Ov fade at 5-0 (Mia/Mil),
and the SP Against spot (AG Mil), 1-0 post season, 8-0 reg season.
But I didn't buy any of them.
Why?
Because even though I'm mainly a math and numbers guy who relies heavily on the systems I come up with, my gut feel is still a large part of the final equation. I just didn't feel good about either play.
And my instinct turned out to be correct as both lost.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO BET EVERY DAY. OR EVERY GAME.

Record: 3-2
Breakdown: Ov 1-1, Un 2-0, teaser 0-1

Today, plays and post season records . . .

NP has Bos/Brook Un
NP Un is 0-1

Sides has Brook, Phx
Sides are 0-2, (both were RD's, today Brook is a HF, Phx a HD)

SP has ON Brook
This spot is 2-0

TR (Trend Reversal; a fade play) has Dal/LAC Un
This spot is 1-0 (fade is 0-1)

I've been charting a possible Trend Reversal play for team totals.
It's 4-0 this season, so it's not giving me what I hoped for in this situation - a fade spot.
At 4-0, maybe it will be something I can use for a play on instead of a fade?
I'll keep tracking, and will start sharing it here in case anyone likes team totals action.
One spot today, LAL Un 106.
(Though it's 4-0, I'd still fade it if I played it. The record is not in my favor, and the line sucks at 16 pts higher than they scored in game one, but history and experience tell me the logic behind the spot is the right way to play these.)

Update: I did some digging.
LAL also lost game one of their opening round last year. The next game their tm total improved by 18 pts.
Round two they lost game one. Game two saw an improvement of 20 pts.
Hmm . . .

One buy for now, may add something late today.

Update: Added buy.
The number is tight, right where PF/PA avg's are, and I'm going against a 4-0 spot here, but . . .

Buys:
Brook -9
LAL team total Ov 106

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0

Record: 5-2
Breakdown:
totals: Ov 1-1, Un 2-0
teaser 0-1,
sides 1-0 (Fav)
tm totals 1-0 (Ov 1-0)

Review: I bought the Brooklyn spot with total confidence.
Even though the side plays were 0-2 going into last night's games, the SP ON play was 2-0, and it's a stronger play. Also, the pick proves why watching the games is important. I saw a few Celtic games down the stretch, and they looked more than just weakened by injuries - they looked like they had some quit in them, like they were resigned to the fact that they were over-matched. I saw no confidence in them, so I had no problem laying a big number last night.

The LAL total play had me a little hesitant.
It was fading a spot that was 4-0, so I didn't buy it first thing in the morning, when I bought Brooklyn.
But as I noted yesterday, "The record is not in my favor, and the line sucks at 16 pts higher than they scored in game one, but history and experience tell me the logic behind the spot is the right way to play these."
The play is based on the same principle and stat work I use on college football Unders, and it has a long history of doing well. So, I kept looking at it, and then made the decision to buy it after further research showed the LAL bounce-back after losing game one in round one and two last year.

I thought the # was tight at 106, and going into the final minutes it looked like I was going to come up short, in the 102-105 range, but Phx kept fouling and in the final 12 seconds, Davis went 4-4 from the FT line and I got the W.

On Monday I laid off an NP Ov fade at 5-0 (Mia/Mil), and the SP Against spot (AG Mil), 1-0 post season, 8-0 reg season. And it was the right move; both lost.
Yesterday I faded a spot that was 4-0; and I won.
Sports betting is like chess, me vs the books. And I'm seeing the board clearly right now.
Hope it continues.

Today, plays and post season records . . .

MP has Atl/NYK Ov
This spot is 2-0

Sides has Wash, Mem, NYK.
This spot is 1-3, Favs 1-0, Dogs, 0-3, RD's 0-2, HF's 1-0

SP has three plays, all ON: Wash, NYK, Mem

No TR spots.

Side spots have been hard to come by, yet I have three today.
And all three games have an SP spot, too. Interesting.

On Monday I said I was staying off Mia, even though they fit two systems, because I have another play I'm charting that was 3-0 that said "take Mil." (Why don't I post all systems? Because I think it would get too confusing?) That play is now 4-0. It has Wash and Mem today. CORRECTION - the play is a fade, today's plays would be fade Wash and Mem. SORRY!

And the other day I had an idea - why not apply the principle I use for MLB GP plays to the NBA, and see if it yields anything I can use? So far, it's 0-2; a possible fade? It has Atl today.

Based on a few different plays I have that say take NYK and/or fade Atl, I made one buy for now.
Not crazy about the it, I think Atl is the better team (they're the only team I took in a series bet), and as noted in an earlier post I think NY is easily defended and not the best at closing out games in the fourth quarter, but my stats so take them, so . . .

Buys:
NYK -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0

Record: 6-2

Breakdown:
totals: Ov 1-1, Un 2-0
teaser 0-1,
sides 2-0 (Favs 2-0)
tm totals 1-0 (Ov 1-0)

Review: Yes, the Knicks won, but they did not change my mind about them not being able to close out games in the 4th quarter. They had a 10 pt lead with 8 minutes left, at home. Two minutes later, the game was tied. Last night was more of of an Atl loss than a NY win, as the Hawks shot just 31-84, and 12-43 on 3 pt'ers. And it was not due to the NY defense as much as it was just a very poor shooting night by the Hawks. I will try not to use NY in any games the rest of this series.

I had no plans to watch Mem/Den, but after the Knicks game won I thought I'd put down a little TV action bet for a rooting interest. I checked my logbook to see if I had any plays active that I could use for my bet and saw that Mem was a fade in one of my systems. I checked my post here, and that was when I saw I posted the plays incorrectly, the 4-0 spot that listed Wash and Mem is a fade. So I posted the correction.
Again - sorry about that.

As I've noted, when it comes to using my situational spots, the playoffs are a different animal.
That's why I start new records for them.
Here's an example of why I do:
Reg season, RD's were hitting at a very playable 61%. Post season, they're 0-4.
Sides were hitting at 58%. Post season? 2-5.
I still refer to the reg season records when 'capping, but I give the post season record more weight in decision making.

I had seven spots available to choose from yesterday, seven spots posted.
I only bought one. Only one won.
I'm seeing the board clearly right now, the whole board.
Hope it continues.

Today, plays and post season records . . .

Sides has Mil, Port
Sides are 2-5 , no record on RF's (Mil), HF (Port) 2-0

SP has AGAINST Den
SP is 5-3, ON is 4-2, AGAINST is 1-1

Trend Reversal has Mil/Mia Ov
TR is 1-1, Ov 0-0, Un 1-1. This is a spot I look to fade, an 80% or > trend I think is due for a regression.

TR team total has LAL Un.
This spot is 4-1, Overs 0-0, Unders 4-1. This is a spot I look to fade, an 80% or > trend I think is due for a regression. This is the same play I used two nights ago when I squeaked out a win on Ov 106.
Tonight's # is 109'.

Not loving any of these spots.
Port is worth a second look, sides doing poorly but HF's have been good to me at 2-0.

Yesterday, I said I'm buying NY because it was "based on a few different plays I have that say take NYK and/or fade Atl. The play that said "fade Atl" is now 3-0. The system that called for fades on Wash and Mem last night is now 6-0. No games qualify for either of those spots today.

I'll likely take the day off, nothing I see that I want to invest in, a TV action/fun play only day probably, waiting for a spot that, like NY last night, qualifies as a play in multiple systems.

 

[LineMovin]

Any buys tonight buddy?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RBD]

Oops, forgot.

Today:
MP has NY/Atl Ov
This spot is 2-1

NP has LAC/Dal Ov
This spot is 1-5 (fade material)

Sides has Atl
This spot is 3-1, as HF 2-1

TR has NYK team total Un
This spot is 5-1

No buys.
Tm total and MP Ov conflict.
NP Ov is always worth a look as a fade though.

 

[RBD]

No buys last night.

Record: 6-2

Breakdown:
totals: Ov 1-1, Un 2-0
teaser 0-1,
sides 2-0 (Favs 2-0)
tm totals 1-0 (Ov 1-0)

Friday night review: Good move taking the night off.
The NP Over fade was the strongest play on the board at 1-7, and it won, so fading it would have been a loss.

Have to rethink the way I look at TR team totals. It's a play that usually works for fades, but it's 6-1 now, after last night's win with NYK Un. (One way of knowing that I'm doing okay this postseason, it's a fade play, but I only faded one of them, the lone win in seven available spots.)
"See the board. See the whole board."

One of the reasons I do okay is that my systems usually kick out a few choices with decent W percentages that I can choose from.
I have no choices tonight, only one play kicked out, a side spot.
Sides are just 4-6, but Favs are 4-1, RF's 3-1,(*CORRECTION, HF's are 3-1)and that's what I have today, a HF.
And then there's this, from 5/27:
"The system that called for fades on Wash and Mem last night is now 6-0. No games qualify for either of those spots today."

Today it says take Denver.

Buys:
Port -4'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-2

Review: Let's start with a correction/clarification on yesterday's post.
The side play was on Den, who was a RD, not a HF.
Side dogs were 0-5 going into yesterday's game.
RD's were 0-4 going into yesterday's game.
Den was also a play in the spot I mentioned yesterday, that was 0-6, or, a solid fade at 6-0.
I messed up the write-up but the buy was correct.
Portland was in THREE good spots to fade, at 0-5, 0-4, and 0-6.
Those spots are now 0-6, 0-5, and 0-7.
Still seeing the board clearly.

Today:

MP has NYK/Atl Ov
This spot is 2-2

NP has NYK/Atl Un, Phx/LAL Ov, Brook/Bos Ov, LAC/Dal Ov
This play is 2-7, Ov 2-5, Un 0-2

Sides has LAL, LAC
Sides are 4-7, Favs 4-1, Dogs 0-6; HF 3-1, RF 1-0

SP has ON NYK
This play is 4-2

TR has Un in NYK/Atl
This play is 1-2

TR team total has NYK Un
This play is 6-1

Have a conflict on NYK/Atl, MP has Ov, NP has Un.
H2H MP is 1-0 in the postseason.

None of today's plays fit any of the other systems I chart. The problem with a play that qualifies as strong as yesterday's Portland spot is it spoils you, you want your next plays to be just as strong. Don't have one of those today, but I do have a few good looking choices, but no buys right now.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Posted plays went 3-4.
I graded the total in the New York game as a push. Could have been a winner or loser, depending on what line you got, 209 was pretty much the common number though, so, a push.

There was an opportunity in the late game.
NP Overs were a decent fade all year long during the regular season, and an even better fade postseason at 2-5.
Phx/LA stayed Un, the fade goes to 2-6.
Brook/Bos sailed Ov, 3-6 now.
LAC/Dal was still open.
The question to ask was this:
What do the odds say about this last game, which has a higher opportunity of happening, the play goes 2-1 or 1-2?
That was an easy call.
You take the fade. And bank a winner.

Today, nothing qualifies for any of the plays I use.
Not even any of the ones I don't post, the ones I'm still experimenting with.

I'll be back tomorrow with a full accounting update for the records of all the plays I'm using, and hopefully some plays.

Enjoy your Memorial Day with family and friends, and raise a toast to those who sacrificed for our freedom.

 

[RBD]

Updates:

My record: 7-2
Breakdown:
totals: Ov 1-1, Un 2-0
teaser 0-1,
sides 3-0 (Favs 3-0)
tm totals 1-0 (Ov 1-0)

Records of the various spots I track:

MP is 2-2, Ov 2-2

NP is 3-9, Ov 3-7, Un 0-2

Sides are 5-8, Favs 5-2, Dogs 0-6

RD 0-5, RF 2-0, HD 0-1, HF 3-2

TR is 1-2, Ov 0-0, Un 1-2

TR tm totals is 7-1, Ov 0-0, Un 7-1

GF is 0-7 (explanation/description is below)

From two days ago: "The system that called for fades on Wash and Mem last night is now 6-0. No games qualify for either of those spots today. Today it says take Denver."
Denver lost that game.
That play was 3-0 on 5/26 when I first shared it here. Yes, not a lot of data at only 3-0, but during the post season you don't have the luxury of collecting weeks of data before you start buying spots.
And . . . it's 7-0 now, a very solid fade.
Need to tag that spot with a name for reference purposes because with a record like that I will be using it for the rest of the post season, so, GF (Good Fade.)
Remember - GF is the team to fade.

Today:

MP has LAL/Phx Ov
Sides has Brook, Port, Phx
TR has Bos/Brook Ov, Port/Den Ov
TR Team Totals has Den Ov 114, LAL Un 101'
GF has Port

Port is a strong fade spot tonight: sides (dogs) is 0-6, RD's 0-5, DF is 0-7.
Really hard not to pull the trigger on this one but I have a conflict with another system, so I'm not buying it.

TR tm totals are 7-1, but they're all Un, I have two Ov tonight, but no data to point out which way to play it.

LAL is in the 7-1 spot but as I've stated from the beginning, I track these for fade plays. It's not working out that way at 7-1, but I have a lot of tracked history that says this should reverse.

No buys yet.

Update: I've spent a lot of time looking at this Den spot, I'm as close as I can be to a buy, but I just can't.
I'm doing okay thus far in the post season because I'm seeing things clearly when I make a buy. I like Den a lot tonight, but it's just not as clear to me as the picks I've been making.

The other spot I'm trying to talk myself into a buy on is a fade on the TR spot LAL Un. Yes, the spot is 7-1, but I faded it once and hit for a W, and I feel the same about this spot going Over, even with Davis out, maybe even because Davis is out.

Maybe I'm playing too tight right now. I'll look at all spots throughout the afternoon, will post up if I buy.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
I had two concerns with the Denver spot:
1 - It was going to be tight game
2 - Denver may not be able to close it out

It was a tight game, going into double OT.
And Denver blew a 9 pt lead in the first OT, so I wasn't off in that they could not close it out. They won and covered but mainly because of McCollum - in the second OT he went 0-3 and had a costly turnover with 10 seconds left in the game.

I am adding Denver to the Knicks as two teams I will try to avoid betting on for the remainder of the season. Both are built around one star, making them easy to defend, and, more importantly, both seem unable to close.

Last night, Den had a 3 pt lead with seconds left in regulation and failed to put Portland on the line for two FT's, opting to let Lillard tie the game with a three pointer. And, at the end of the first OT, they did it AGAIN.
Malone is not a HC I want my $ riding on.

The other spot I had to fight off the urge to buy, LAL team total Over, lost, so I likely avoided a split and saved juice. Banked a MLB unit, so, a good night, overall.

Let's update the spots:

MP 2-3; Ov 2-3

NP 3-9, Ov 3-7, Un 0-2

Sides 7-9, Favs 7-2, Dogs 0-7
RD 0-6, RF 2-0, HD 0-1, HF 5-2

TR 2-3, Ov 1-1, Un 1-2

TR team totals 9-1, Ov 1-2, Un 8-1

GF 0-8


For sides, ya gotta love fading the dogs at 7-0 now after last night's Phx loss.
Same with GF spots at an 8-0 fade.

I don't know what to make of TR team totals.
Reg season these were 8-13, a 61% fade. Post season they're 9-1???

Like I say, there's a reason why I start new records for the playoffs, what worked in the reg season may not in the post season, only way to find out is to chart the plays and study the numbers.
Two days ago, when team totals were at 7-1, I said I have to pay them a little more attention and respect, yet, I passed up on two more winners last night, AND I almost faded one!

Today:
MP has Atl/NYK Ov
This spot is 2-3

NP has Atl/NYK Un (0-2), Mem/Utah Ov (3-7)

Sides has Mem (RD), LAC (HF)
Sides 7-9, Favs 7-2 Dogs 0-7, RD 0-6, HF 5-2

SP has ON NYK
This spot is 4-3.

TR has Mem/Utah Ov (1-1)
TR teams has NYK Un (8-1), Mem Ov (1-0)

Thought I had a buy on ATL/NYK Ov (H2H, MP is 1-0 vs NP in the post season, same scenario as today's conflict) but then I 'capped the TR spots and saw that NYK qualifies as a team total Un, which is 8-1.

Also have a conflict with Memphis - they're in a good fade spot as a dog (0-7) and RD (0-6), but they're also an Ov in TR team totals (9-1; Ov 1-0). I don't want to bet a team to lose if they're also in a team total Ov.

LAC is a HF (5-2.)

Again, nothing is clear to me (would have liked to have another GF spot), but I don't feel like taking the night off. I'll do some more research, hopefully come back with a buy.

Update: Utah now qualifies as NP Ov 226

Too many conflicting spots in NBA tonight, I can't pick one. I banked my MLB play, so I'm done for the night.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

TR team totals went 2-0, they're now 11-1 post season. And I've only bought one of them, faded it the only time it lost. I have a built in lean towards fading these, which is why I haven't bought any, none of you reading this has that same disadvantage so I hope somebody has bought a few of them.

Today:

MP has Phx/LAL Ov (2-4)

NP has Den/Port Ov (3-7)

Sides has Port -4 (Favs 7-3; HF's 5-3), Phx +2 (Dogs 0-8, RD's 0-7)

TR team totals has LAL Un 104' (9-1)

GF has Phx (0-8)


Two systems say take a hard look at Un in Phx/LAL.
It's a 67% fade in the MP spot, and a 9-1 play on the TR team total.

I like the team total spot (at 11-1, how can I not like it?) but this puts me in the unenviable "Johnny-Come-Lately Situation" - jumping on an already established trend.
If you've played some of them, fine, keep riding it, you're on the house's dime. But if you haven't been buying them (like me) you're playing with dynamite as sooner or later all plays revert back to .500, and the time to start buying these plays was 12 games ago, not now.

The other problem I have with this game is this: PHX is in the GF spot, a great fade at 0-8.
Which says take the Lakers, which presents a conflict with betting them in Unders (full game or team total) and expecting them to play lousy tonight.

Can they be as horrid as they were Tuesday night? I can't see them playing that poorly again, especially in an elimination game, but they do stink lately, so who knows?

I'm not seeing anything clearly on that one, too many conflicting POV's within the systems I use.

Portland is in a nice 5-3 spot (HF's), and facing elimination I like them tonight. The # is at 4', which means if they win as I expect them to, there are four #'s that could screw me:1, 2, 3, & 4.
I have that lone loss on a teaser still bothering me, itching to get it to 1-1. Maybe use it here?

NP has Den/Port Ov, a great fade at 3-7; another possibility for tonight, but . . . 5 of the last 6 between these two have sailed Over, easily, all of them > than tonight's totals, including last game which came in at SIXTY pts higher, not exactly an ideal situation.

I haven't made an investment buy in three days now, last was on 5/30, but I'm a conservative player by design. Ill be back with buys if I have anything, but again, I might not make a buy. You can always make a case for both sides of a contest, but I buy when I think I see a clear W, when I have multiple systems pointing to the same outcome, not conflicting ones. I'm just not seeing anything that looks clear to me in tonight's games.

UPDATE: Buys below.
Q - How can I resist a buy on a game that is an 0-7 spot on RD's and 0-8 on the GF spot?
A - I can't.
So, I'll probably buy it, even though it kind of conflicts with the TR team total spot,
and even though I can't stand le'moron le'bron and would much prefer to bet against him.
It's all-or-nothing/now-or-never time, so I think Davis will give it a try.
If he's in, but ineffective, LA's in trouble and would be better off benching him.
Another way for me to look at it - it's a win-win. If they cover, I bank a unit, if they lose I get to see lebron get KO'd in the first round, and mocked for it. But, I'll hold off on buying to see what happens in the early game where I'm buying the Favs 7-3, HF's 5-3 spot.

Buys:
Port -5

Update: Blazers are folding under the pressure. I'm done for the night, no play on the late game.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-3

Review: The plan was to play the early game, and after results were known, decide to press or bank it if it won, or use the late game to recoup if it lost. Halfway through the 3rd quarter Portland had a 14 pt lead, I was looking good. But then they imploded, not a slow descent where Denver inched their way back into the game, but a total collapse in all facets of the game. Portland surrendered momentum, they couldn't score, they couldn't defend (not that they ever do), they turned the ball over. Suddenly, they looked lost, defeated. And they played that way the rest of the game.

So, the question you ask yourself as a bettor in my situation is this - do I feel like a buy on another game will recoup my unit lost on Portland, or be a chase?
It's a gut check question, calling on your intuition and experience.
Even though I had really great stats on the next game, I felt, after watching Portland blow a nice lead, that I would be chasing.
And one of the most important rules in sports betting is NEVER CHASE LOSSES.
So I followed my intuition, decided not to play the LAL game, and posted an update here.
And saved a unit by doing so.

Started the post season 0-2, then went on a seven game winning streak that ended last night.
In good shape heading into the next round, which starts this weekend.

Tonight, two spots active, side play has Dal +2'/3; GF has Dal.
Sides are 8-12, dogs 1-8. HD's are 0-1.
GF is 1-8 after getting its first win on Phx last night.
A fade on Dal if anything, based on those stats.
Will post if I buy it.