NBA props
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
TOTAL u24-115 K. PORZINGIS (NYK) PTS 6x
B2B after painful loss last night vs Pels. Played 44 mins and has indicated numerous times this season how "tired" he gets on 2nd legs of B2Bs. His stats go way down without Hardaway in the lineup, who is out tonight. This is a strong prop play.
B2B after painful loss last night vs Pels. Played 44 mins and has indicated numerous times this season how "tired" he gets on 2nd legs of B2Bs. His stats go way down without Hardaway in the lineup, who is out tonight. This is a strong prop play.
That one hurt. Porzingis had to have his most efficient shooting game of the season for that to go over. Also didn?t help that the refs called 20+ fouls in the 3rd qtr. the Knicks announcers were laughing at one point it was so ridiculous. Still, I?m glad they came out after a tough home OT loss to the Pels ln.
I played the GSW TT ov117.5 (-125) for 5x earlier, but I doubt anyone can get that number now. I?ll be looking for a 2H total play in that one as Cavs games have averaged 124.25 points per 2H in their four games with IT, who should be playing tonight. Might see some value on the GSW TT in the 2H too. Curry overs in pts and assts might be worth a look as well as Durant scoring overs, as GSW run a lot of pick plays at the top of the key with those two, forcing defenses to switch. Imagine IT trying to guard Durant face up lol.
I played the GSW TT ov117.5 (-125) for 5x earlier, but I doubt anyone can get that number now. I?ll be looking for a 2H total play in that one as Cavs games have averaged 124.25 points per 2H in their four games with IT, who should be playing tonight. Might see some value on the GSW TT in the 2H too. Curry overs in pts and assts might be worth a look as well as Durant scoring overs, as GSW run a lot of pick plays at the top of the key with those two, forcing defenses to switch. Imagine IT trying to guard Durant face up lol.
HOU vs MIN
HOU vs MIN
I don't really understand these numbers... It's going to be awfully hard for him to get to these totals on a minutes restriction, especially coming off a hamstring injury. Don't think we're gonna see much of the lane-driving, euro-stepping Harden, as that move clearly puts intense strain on the hamstrings. Expect more jump shots out of him tonight, as he tries to get back into a rhythm. With two and a half weeks off, I think he'll be shaking off some rust. In my estimation, these kind of opportunities with props don't come around often. The only reason I'm not max-betting the scoring prop at 10x is because of the T-Wolves lack of defense late in games, which really shouldn't be a factor if Harden is sitting for most of the 4th quarter, where Minny typically breaks down on D.
TOTAL u35?-115 (J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS+REB 8x
TOTAL u9-115 (J. HARDEN (HOU) AST 2x
HOU vs MIN
I don't really understand these numbers... It's going to be awfully hard for him to get to these totals on a minutes restriction, especially coming off a hamstring injury. Don't think we're gonna see much of the lane-driving, euro-stepping Harden, as that move clearly puts intense strain on the hamstrings. Expect more jump shots out of him tonight, as he tries to get back into a rhythm. With two and a half weeks off, I think he'll be shaking off some rust. In my estimation, these kind of opportunities with props don't come around often. The only reason I'm not max-betting the scoring prop at 10x is because of the T-Wolves lack of defense late in games, which really shouldn't be a factor if Harden is sitting for most of the 4th quarter, where Minny typically breaks down on D.
TOTAL u35?-115 (J. HARDEN (HOU) PTS+REB 8x
TOTAL u9-115 (J. HARDEN (HOU) AST 2x
Last edited:
IND vs POR
IND vs POR
Another strong prop in this one. Much of this play relies on the Pacers loss of length & athleticism without Turner, but also on Stotts' use of Nurkic in the last game where he was clearly trying to send a message with the way he played him. His reactions to reports questions about "Nurk" in the post-game interview back this up and after being pulled early in the 1st Qtr, he came out make stronger in the 3rd and Stotts noticed. I'll get into a more detailed write-up later if I have the time before tip-off, but for now, I'll just post some stats I compiled from the Pacers in their last four games...
Opposing players starting at C vs IND w/o Miles Turner L4 games:
1/10 - H. Whiteside 16pts-15reb (14.3-11.6 season avg), 31 pts+rebs total +5.1 above season avg
1/12 - K. Love 21p-9r (19.2-9.6 avg), 31 total +2.2 above avg
1/14 - T. Chandler 9p-14r (6.6-9.8 avg), 23 total +6.6 above avg
1/15 - D. Favors 16p-7r (12.5-7.0 avg), 23 total +3.5 above avg
1/18 - J. Nurkic 26.5 pts+reb expected (14.4-7.8 avg)
22.5 pts+reb posted total, -4.0 below expected, +0.3 above season avg
TOTAL o22?-115 (J. NURKIC (POR) PTS+REB 4x
IND vs POR
Another strong prop in this one. Much of this play relies on the Pacers loss of length & athleticism without Turner, but also on Stotts' use of Nurkic in the last game where he was clearly trying to send a message with the way he played him. His reactions to reports questions about "Nurk" in the post-game interview back this up and after being pulled early in the 1st Qtr, he came out make stronger in the 3rd and Stotts noticed. I'll get into a more detailed write-up later if I have the time before tip-off, but for now, I'll just post some stats I compiled from the Pacers in their last four games...
Opposing players starting at C vs IND w/o Miles Turner L4 games:
1/10 - H. Whiteside 16pts-15reb (14.3-11.6 season avg), 31 pts+rebs total +5.1 above season avg
1/12 - K. Love 21p-9r (19.2-9.6 avg), 31 total +2.2 above avg
1/14 - T. Chandler 9p-14r (6.6-9.8 avg), 23 total +6.6 above avg
1/15 - D. Favors 16p-7r (12.5-7.0 avg), 23 total +3.5 above avg
1/18 - J. Nurkic 26.5 pts+reb expected (14.4-7.8 avg)
22.5 pts+reb posted total, -4.0 below expected, +0.3 above season avg
TOTAL o22?-115 (J. NURKIC (POR) PTS+REB 4x
CLE vs ORL
CLE vs ORL
Adding a play in this one. LeBron's scoring average in games where he's played through 4 straight losses is pretty good, well above this number. He's 41 away from 30k and something tells me he doesn't quite get there tonight, but gets pretty close so that he can hit that number and celebrate early in Saturday's ABC game vs OKC (and his buddy Melo). He scored 33 points with 10 rebounds and nine assists in the last game against the Magic, coincidentally the Cavs last win. My only concern in this one is a late blowout where he sits the 4th qtr, but Cavs are on 2 days rest and we all know who really coaches this team, so if LeBron wants to be out there, he'll be out there.
TOTAL o27-115 (L. JAMES (CLE) PTS 4x
CLE vs ORL
Adding a play in this one. LeBron's scoring average in games where he's played through 4 straight losses is pretty good, well above this number. He's 41 away from 30k and something tells me he doesn't quite get there tonight, but gets pretty close so that he can hit that number and celebrate early in Saturday's ABC game vs OKC (and his buddy Melo). He scored 33 points with 10 rebounds and nine assists in the last game against the Magic, coincidentally the Cavs last win. My only concern in this one is a late blowout where he sits the 4th qtr, but Cavs are on 2 days rest and we all know who really coaches this team, so if LeBron wants to be out there, he'll be out there.
TOTAL o27-115 (L. JAMES (CLE) PTS 4x
8pts in the 1st and an insane eyes-in-the-back-of-his-head assist to Dwayne Wade. 0-3 on FTs, so he could easily have 10 or 11. If he's at or close to 20 at the half, he might just go for it tonight, which would be fun. Then again, if they stay up by 16-20 points, he'll probably just rest up for the big Saturday TV game.
Watching IT on this team is like watching a disaster happen on the court. The Cavs have completely blows this game and a 23-pt lead largely due to his poor decision making on offense and inability to guard anyone on defense. He's passing up wide open alley-oop passes to LeBron in order to drive right at a guy 10 inches taller than him, only to draw a foul where he goes 1 of 2 from the line. I've seen him get blocked from the top of the key twice tonight, when he had a man open next to him on the perimeter. It's like he's trying to prove himself over and over, but failing miserably.
The refs just gifted that win to the Cavs. Vogel has every right to be upset. No call for Byombo on the over-the-back and then the ball clearly bounces off IT's hands/head with his foot on the line with a second left and instead the refs can't make up their mind and call it a jump ball with 0.2 left on the clock (adding no time). Makes zero sense, but that's then NBA!
