NBA props

[DZ]

NYK v BKN

NYK v BKN

TOTAL u14+110 E. KANTER (NYK) PTS 1x


For some reason, Hornacek employs a game plan against the undersized Brooklyn that seems to phase out Kanter to some degree. This is a coaching strategy I've noticed the Knicks tend to go with against undersized teams in general. I also think he'll be looking to give Kanter some rest after a long road trip in which he played very well with some gritty and exhausting games. I would play against the Knicks in this spot, first game back after the long trip out of town, but DeAngelo Russell is playing tonight, which significantly downgrades the Nets defensively. We could see Hardaway have a big game here, but because he's still coming back slowly from his injury we can't trust him tonight. I could see Jack having a good game in the Points+Assists categories, but I don't have props for him available to me.

 

[DZ]

DEN vs SA

DEN vs SA

TOTAL u14-120 W. BARTON (DEN) PTS 5x

DEN is playing in SA on a b2b and Barton has played A LOT of minutes lately. In the past 3 games (over a 5 day period) he's logged 39, 39 and 44 minutes last night. How many more minutes should he play in the 4th game of a 6 day stretch? One thing being commented on during Nuggets games is how Barton seems to become more ineffective as the game moves along and an obvious explanation for that is fatigue. If you're paying attention, however, the fatigue does not just affect him physically, but mentally as well, as he's become known for making questionable decisions late in games. Now, Malone has recently commented to the media that he affirms his own decision to put Barton in these type of late game situations, but one has to question not only his effectiveness, but how long he'll last in the late game role when DEN has a couple of guards who are playing extremely well lately in Harris and Murray.

From Josh Eberley on Twitter:

4th Quarter net rating this season:
Trey Lyles: 4.6
Gary Harris: 4.4
Jamal Murray: 3.5
------------------
Will Barton -3.6

The main reason that Barton played so many minutes last night was the absence of Wilson Chandler, who was out due to illness after recently being replaced in the starting lineup earlier this month by Barton due to overall ineffectiveness. Yes, Chandler is having a down year, but he's a veteran and he's rested. Coming into San Antonio on a back to back with the starter ahead of him having logged heavy minutes of late, I think Chandler will get plenty of time on the court tonight. Add to it that Barton has not performed well in games vs San Antonio over his career and that we may well see the Spurs pull away early just as they did two weeks ago, limiting the starter's minutes, when Barton posted a line of 8 points in 23 minutes.

A few updates from around the web:

Wilson Chandler (illness) will be available to play Tuesday vs. the Spurs.
Chandler sat out Monday's game, but he should be back out there tonight, which will translate to fewer minutes for Will Barton. Chandler has been extremely inconsistent this season, so he's not a great target in most leagues with a tough matchup against San Antonio. Jan 30 - 6:35 PM
Source: Harrison Wind on Twitter

Will Barton played a game-high 44 minutes against the Celtics on Monday with 19 points, seven assists, seven rebounds, one steal and two triples.
Coach Mike Malone clearly isn't afraid to play Barton big minutes -- he's played 39+ minutes in three straight games and this was his eighth such game of the season. Barton stepped up in Wilson Chandler's absence and helped the Nuggets climb back from a 20-point deficit, hitting 8-of-18 shots and 1-of-1 from the line. Expect another heavy workload vs. the Spurs on Tuesday, with or without Chandler. Jan 29 - 11:49 PM

 

[DZ]

TOTAL o18?-105 A. WIGGINS (MIN) PTS 4x

Wiggins shoots 2-8 from the field in the first quarter alone. If he keeps up the same level of aggressiveness on offense the rest of the game and he still goes under the total, I can live with the loss knowing that I had the prop handicapped correctly. Averaging over 19FGA and almost 9FTA per game vs TOR in his last 6 games (all meetings except his first as a rookie) and he's well on pace to eclipse that usage rate tonight.

 

[DZ]

1Q PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -3-115 2x

 

[DZ]

PHI vs BKN

PHI vs BKN

Snubbed... plus Russell is playing tonight. Should be a show in Brooklyn.

TOTAL o30?-125 B. SIMMONS (PHI) PTS+REB+AST 2x

 

[DZ]

NYK vs BOS

NYK vs BOS

Minutes limit and Celtics strong wing defenders, Brown and Tatum, should make this one easy...

TOTAL u16?-115 T. HARDAWAY (NYK) PTS 2x

 

[DZ]

DEN vs SA

DEN vs SA

Big one...

TOTAL u16?-105 J. MURRAY (DEN) PTS 10x

 

[DZ]

NO vs SA

NO vs SA

I see my last post in this thread didn't go so well, losing a big play by a half point. Hope to turn that around tonight with a few props. After this one, I will post for the HOU/LAC game as well.

Davis is on a tear of late and I hate fading his run, but giving plus money to go under 30 points is value that's too good to pass up. He seems to be breaking out more at home than on the road and the Spurs allow the fewest ppg than any team in the league. Furthermore, their defensive efficiency gets even better when given more than a day off of rest (2 days off since the CLE game). For each of the past three years, the first game back home after the annual rodeo trip has gone under, clearing the total by an average of 14 points. Needless to say, I think the total in this one is too high and I would be fine with playing it under down to 217. The Spurs have only allowed 3 players to score 30 or more this season... Kyrie, Rubio (wtf) and Lebron (on Sunday). Something tells me they won't be allowing back to back 30 point games from the opposing team's best player. As good as Davis is playing, it's going to be hard to clear that number, especially in San Antonio. You will hear it from even the league's best players, that it is hard to score 30 in the NBA, and it is safe to assume that it's even harder against the NBA's best defense in their house. On the other hand, the Pels regularly allow their opposing team's avg high scorer to exceed their season averages. Aldridge is rested since the all star break, having been given a few days off before the break started as well. He is looking refreshed and playing the best he has all season and it has shown in his past two games. It has been well publicized that Pop made some adjustments for him in the offense that better suit his game, so with all that, I think Aldridge is a pretty solid over play tonight.


TOTAL u30?+105 A. DAVIS (NO) PTS 2x
TOTAL o23?-115 L. ALDRIDGE (SA) PTS 2x
NO/SA un219.5 3x

 

[DZ]

HOU vs LAC

HOU vs LAC

One word... Revenge.


TOTAL o19-130 C. PAUL (HOU) PTS 8x

 

[DZ]

Jeez, I saw the 1st Qtr started out great with Aldridge at 8 points and Davis at 2 in the first frame. Now, midway through the 3rd Qtr, Aldridge still sitting on 8 points, WTF? Won't be the first time he's burned me this season. Davis with 14, so on pace to go under, but could easily blow up in the 4Q. If the Spurs pull away a bit more, I'll be looking to play an in-running total, hopefully somewhere around 225. Could get 224.5 now, but want to see Spurs with the game in hand, knowing they will slow down the pace late to shorten the game.

 

[DZ]

Ok, I'm satisfied...

NO/SA un227.5 LIVE 3x

 

[DZ]

Ugh, great! :facepalm:

LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) will not return against the Pelicans on Wednesday.
The Spurs rule him out fairly quickly after he went to the locker room about 10 minutes prior to this announcement. His ankle injury didn't look too bad, but the Spurs tend to be careful when it involves injuries. It should be Joffrey Lauvergne getting the nod in the second half while Rudy Gay would also have to help out off the bench. There will be a lot of shots to go around, too. Aldridge finished with eight points, three rebounds and one foul in 13 minutes. Feb 28 - 9:36 PM
Source: Tom Orsborn on Twitter

 

[DZ]

235 in-running now...Gawd. I still don't think they hit 230 if spurs can build their lead early in the 4th. Have to say, it hurts to have lost Aldridge's size and length down low. I'm sure Davis will punish them now and I'll get bombed in this game. :facepalm:

 

[DZ]

DEN @ CLE

DEN @ CLE

N. JOKIC un10.5 REBS 2.5x

 

[DZ]

NO @ DAL

NO @ DAL

ANTHONY DAVIS ov32 PTS 5x


Dallas worst or 2nd worst in the league at defending the center position, haven?t checked lately but it?s been close at the bottom all year with IND, haven?t checked lately. Either way, no Okafor tonight and Mirotic is starting at the 4, which means lots of minutes for AD at the 5 spot. He?lol bounce back from his ?substandard? performance against the spurs, in which I successfully faded him at 30.5 pts. Should be able to get up above 30 by the 3rd Qtr.

 

[DZ]

CLE @ DEN

CLE @ DEN

N. JOKIC un16 PTS+REB (-115) 3x
DEN -1.5 1H 2x

 

[DZ]

Will add to other thread on MIL tonight, but for record keeping purposes, I'm posting this here...

TOTAL o18?+110 E. BLEDSOE (MIL) PTS 5x

 

[DZ]

Sorry I'm late on both of these... the line on the vig is definitely not ideal having played it late, but I think they're worth a play considering the National TV and revenge angles.



TOTAL o10?-155 L. NANCE (CLE) REB 5x
TOTAL o14?-125 (L. NANCE (CLE) PTS 2x

 

[DZ]

TOTAL o17? (-130) D. HOWARD (CHA) PTS 4x
CHA TT ov113.5 (-125) 2x

 

[DZ]

Best bet today

Best bet today

TOTAL o15?-110 JJ. REDICK (PHI) PTS 5x