NBA props

[Burnside]

Great call DZ..One of my sites had it at 35 1/2 the other at 32 1/2...I only played the one.
That's cappin at its finest Send more, my daughters in college...Thanks so much

 

[DZ]

Great call DZ..One of my sites had it at 35 1/2 the other at 32 1/2...I only played the one.
That's cappin at its finest Send more, my daughters in college...Thanks so much

:00hour:toast::0074

 

[DZ]

1/19 - 1st Qtr Plays

1/19 - 1st Qtr Plays

Washington has scored 27 or more in the 1st qtr of 13 straight games and has averaged 32.0 pts per 1st qtr in during that span. Their 1st qtrs have averaged 60.1 pts per 1st 1tr in that span as well.
Detroit has given up 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 (allowed 26 @BKN on 1/10) and has allowed an average of 32.3 points per 1st qtr in that span. Their 1st qtrs have averaged 59.4 pts per 1st qtr in that span as well.
I would play the same amount on the WAS TT at 27 too.

WAS TT ov26? (-125) 1Q 4x
WAS/DET ov53? (-115) 1Q 2x



Denver's average 1st qtr margin at home is +1.0, while Phoenix's 1st qtr margin is a league worst -4.5 in all games (next closest is UTA at -2.8) and -4.6 on the road.
In the Suns last 5 games in Denver, going back to the 2015-2016 season, they have struggled mightily trailing in the first quarter by 8, 11, 6, 12 and 7 points for an average margin of -8.8 in the 1st qtr.
I would play this at -3 (-115) as well.

DEN -2.5 (-122) 1Q 2.5x



San Antonio is going through a rough stretch in the schedule with 11 straight court changes. In all road games during that span they trail after the 1st qtr by an average margin of 2.75 pts. They're also playing their 10th game in 17 days and this is the last game of a stretch of 6 of 7 on the road.
Toronto averages a 1st qtr margin of +3.9 points at home, good for 3rd best in the league, while San Antonio averages a 1st qtr margin of -1.8 points on the road, 9th worst in the league in that category. It gets worse when they're playing in their last game of an extended road trip...
San Antonio has had 5 road trips of 3 or more games this season and in the last game of those trips they've trailed by an average of 5.8 points at the end of the 1st qtr, never leading after the first frame in any.
I would also play this at -2 (-110).

TOR -1.5 (-115) 1Q 1x

 

[yanno]

Good writeup. Lots of information there! Good luck, think I'll join you on these. :toast:

Thanks for taking the time to post this. :0008

 

[DZ]

Good writeup. Lots of information there! Good luck, think I'll join you on these. :toast:

Thanks for taking the time to post this. :0008

Sure thing. Glad that it doesn't go unappreciated. GL :toast:

 

[LonghornMM]

Washington has scored 27 or more in the 1st qtr of 13 straight games and has averaged 32.0 pts per 1st qtr in during that span. Their 1st qtrs have averaged 60.1 pts per 1st 1tr in that span as well.
Detroit has given up 27 or more in 6 of their last 7 (allowed 26 @BKN on 1/10) and has allowed an average of 32.3 points per 1st qtr in that span. Their 1st qtrs have averaged 59.4 pts per 1st qtr in that span as well.
I would play the same amount on the WAS TT at 27 too.

WAS TT ov26? (-125) 1Q 4x
WAS/DET ov53? (-115) 1Q 2x



Denver's average 1st qtr margin at home is +1.0, while Phoenix's 1st qtr margin is a league worst -4.5 in all games (next closest is UTA at -2.8) and -4.6 on the road.
In the Suns last 5 games in Denver, going back to the 2015-2016 season, they have struggled mightily trailing in the first quarter by 8, 11, 6, 12 and 7 points for an average margin of -8.8 in the 1st qtr.
I would play this at -3 (-115) as well.

DEN -2.5 (-122) 1Q 2.5x



San Antonio is going through a rough stretch in the schedule with 11 straight court changes. In all road games during that span they trail after the 1st qtr by an average margin of 2.75 pts. They're also playing their 10th game in 17 days and this is the last game of a stretch of 6 of 7 on the road.
Toronto averages a 1st qtr margin of +3.9 points at home, good for 3rd best in the league, while San Antonio averages a 1st qtr margin of -1.8 points on the road, 9th worst in the league in that category. It gets worse when they're playing in their last game of an extended road trip...
San Antonio has had 5 road trips of 3 or more games this season and in the last game of those trips they've trailed by an average of 5.8 points at the end of the 1st qtr, never leading after the first frame in any.
I would also play this at -2 (-110).

TOR -1.5 (-115) 1Q 1x

:facepalm:

 

[yanno]

Sure thing. Glad that it doesn't go unappreciated. GL :toast:

Hey, stuff happens. That first quarter with the Raps, the ball was going down for the Spurs and rimming out for the Raptors.

Please keep your input coming and ignore any moans and groans when plays lose. xstop

At least these 1st Q plays are over early and we can move on! :lol:

 

[DZ]

0-4 OUCH! That buzzer beater 3 by the Suns was a painful twist of the knife! Sorry to all that folllowed and thanks, Yanno. Hope for better days ahead.

 

[OWENS81]

0-4 OUCH! That buzzer beater 3 by the Suns was a painful twist of the knife! Sorry to all that folllowed and thanks, Yanno. Hope for better days ahead.

All good DZ.. yes I followed... I really liked the wiz plays... I always seem to pick the wrong times to follow certain people ... it?s amazing... then wiz/det go for like 140 in 2nd half.... that was comical... good luck moving forward... 👍🏻👍🏻

 

[Jetn91]

DZ how many units on nurkic and Lebron today?


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[DZ]

I was waiting for props to come out and tried to take LeBron over 27.5 (-115), but when I went to submit my wager it moved to -140 I put 5x on it. He needs 25 points to get 30k and should be motived to get it today at home. His total is a bit inflated for that reason, so not as big of a play as I had hoped. Nurkic, I haven't seen numbers for yet, but I'm expecting them to come in around 15 pts and 8.5 rebs. If I can get a 23.5 pts+rebs, I'll take it for at least 3x. Anything less and I'll be on it pretty big. 24.5 or higher, it will be a small play. So, for now...

L. JAMES (CLE) PTS o27?-140 5x


Juice is still moving up as I type... -160 now :scared

 

[DZ]

If I could get any props on James over FTs attempts or makes today, I would take those pretty large as well. GL

 

[DZ]

Just take the over at whatever price... he wants it today

Just take the over at whatever price... he wants it today

If he falls on 25, 26 or 27 so be it, but if he wants to make sure he gets it at home, he'll need to do it by the middle of the 3rd qtr before he gets subbed out for his usual rest between the end of the 3rd, early 4th. Which means there will be plenty of time left late to get the last 3 points, assuming it even comes to that.

https://www.ohio.com/akron/sports/c...nts-so-his-children-can-witness-the-milestone

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/r5LWWmrxP-0?rel=0&start=57" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

James said he?d rather reach the milestone Saturday so his children LeBron Jr., 13, Bryce, 10, and Zhuri, 3, can witness the historic moment at Quicken Loans Arena in the 3:30 p.m. game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

?That would be pretty cool,? he said, although adding later his kids couldn?t care less about the feat.

 

[DZ]

That sucked! I'm sure that's not the way LBJ hoped it would go either :facepalm:

 

[DZ]

POR vs DAL

POR vs DAL

Well, at this point, I wouldn't blame anyone for fading me, but here goes tonight's prop plays...


Dallas consistently gives up big scoring and rebounding nights to opposing Centers. Here's a sample of statistics for bigs vs Dallas' in their last 5 games:

1/16 - Jokic 29 pts, 18 reb (monster night)
1/13 - Randle 23pts, 15reb (PF, but spends more time at C than Lopez for Lakers who play small)
1/10 - Howard 15pts, 12reb (Average game for him, props barely went under, but shot 5-18 from FT line)
1/9 - Biyombo 6pts, 8reb in 22mins; Speights 10pts, 13reb in 21mins (no Vucevic in this game)
1/7 - Porzingis 29pts, 8reb in 38mins; Kanter 13pts, 18reb in 25mins; O'Quinn 15pts, 11 reb (All 3 bigs posted above avg totals)

Nurkic's prop totals, especially the points, are on the high end of my projections, so it will be a smaller play there. However, even more glaring than Dallas' stats vs big men, a trend I noticed going through the box scores is how PGs consistently put up big scoring games against them. I'm not going to list all the big games, but suffice it to say that pretty much any PG with a scoring pulse was able to put up a big night that exceeded their season averages. If you play fantasy basketball, you are well aware of this trend, I'm sure. So, with that, I'm going to make the following plays given what is available to me, but if you can get the Nurkic prop on pts+rebs, I feel like that is a little safer, while the Lillard prop on just points at 27.5 or less is the more appealing option. Nurkic at 24.5 pts+rebs would be the highest number at which I would make a play.

TOTAL o37?-150 D. LILLARD (POR) PTS+REB+AST 2x
TOTAL o15?-110 J. NURKIC (POR) PTS 2x
TOTAL o9-115 J. NURKIC (POR) REB 4x


GL

 

[lowell]

The 3-4 times I have followed you I lose. Usually when I don?t follow ...you win.

 

[DZ]

The 3-4 times I have followed you I lose. Usually when I don?t follow ...you win.

Lowell, I know exactly how you feel. There are a few cappers on this site where the same thing seems to happen to me on a consistent basis. Did you at least hit the Harden props on Thursday? I thought that was a can't miss play. Sometimes, it's best to just lay off until one of those opportunities comes along. I remember there was another couple of props on one night last year with Jrue Holiday where I felt like it was a "can't miss" opportunity. If you can ignore all the clutter in these threads, occasionally a gem of a play emerges every now and then.

 

[lowell]

Did not play that one. No problem .
You have some grea5 picks.

 

[DZ]

CHA v SAC

CHA v SAC

TOTAL u22 (-115) W. CAULEY-STIEN (SAC) PTS+REB 4x

Write-up on this one coming later...

Also, get your John Wall prop in on ov23 PTS if you have that available to you. See Lilliard play above for explanation.

 

[DZ]

Also, get your John Wall prop in on ov23 PTS if you have that available to you. See Lilliard play above for explanation.

I would lay off the wall prop after seeing this news...

John Wall (illness) is expected to play vs. the Mavericks on Monday.
Wall missed the morning shootaround, but it sounds like the Wizards were just playing it safe. He's a little risky in DFS, but his season-long owners can deploy him in their lineups. We'll have an update after warmups.
Source: Candace Buckner on Twitter Jan 22 - 1:33 PM


My only play today will be the Cauley-Stien prop. GL