NBA Season 3

[RBD]

Okay, this is the only sport I have a losing record in, lost both years here.
Gonna try and fix that this season.
Gonna try and keep it simple, for both 'capping and write-ups.

I have been keeping charts since the season opener, obviously not a lot of data in, but I have a couple of plays that haven't lost yet so I'll ride them until they do. SMALL $ bets on these, for now.

Buys:
Ind/Wash Ov 228
Tor/Bos Ov 218

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 1-1; Ov 1-1

Been gathering stats, charting nine different systems I came up with.
As usual, most are hitting around .500, but I have a few spots that are playable, the best one is 2-9 (a solid fade.) Not a lot of data in of course, the season is still new, but I'm going jump in and see if the 2-9 stat continues in that direction. It has three spots today (NO, Mia, Mem) and I faded all three (I got Atl at -5' but the common # right now is -6 so that's what I'll use here.)

I also have two spots with only a small sample thus far (0-2 and 4-7) both say take Tor, so . . .

Buys:
Indy -1
Atl -6
Brook -4
Port -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-3
Record: 2-4

Just wanted to drop an update since I haven't been in here since Oct.
I haven't dropped NBA, in fact I'm more determined than ever to beat it this year as it's the only sport I haven't banked a profit on here.

I'm still tracking/charting every day, but have nothing of significance to use. Yet.
I'm going to keep gathering stats and will be conservative with my play.

Good luck with your plays today . . .

 

[RBD]

Record: 2-4
Forgive me, sports bettors for I have sinned (posted losers), my last picks were 28 days ago.
(The catholic school upbringing in me coming out there.)

Determined to not get into a hole to start the season, I took time off from posting, but not handicapping/searching for situational spots I can use.

I've been doing well on paper and in pocket, time to try to get it going in here again.
I tightened the parameters on what qualifies as a play for both sides and totals and have 3-4 spots with either a high or low W% that I can try to capitalize on.

Posting one buy now, have two other games I'm monitoring the line on, will add to this post if I buy 'em.

Buys:
Char -1

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0, hit with Charlotte last time in.
Record: 3-4

Buys:
Char -2'
Wash -7
Sac/LAL Ov 228'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1
Record: 4-4

Well, it wasn't pretty but I hit 2 of 3 after the Lakers went into triple OT to get me a W with the Over.

Last night's LAL game fit the same spot but I didn't post a buy because I didn't want to push my luck after needing triple OT to hit the last spot. I had small $ on Ov 215 for TV action/fun, and got lucky again.

Looked like a sure loser after Q's of 44, 55 had me at just 99 at halftime, and a Q3 of just 54 left me needing a 62 pt Q4. But Det went on a tear and put up 36 Q4 pts.

With under 8 seconds left, lebron misses one of two FT's putting it at 213, Det down by 5.
I figure Det will take an uncontested last second shot and I might get a push, and that's what happened as Grant had an easy dunk with 2 seconds left.
Game over, with a Laker 3 pt win and a lucky Push for me, right?
Wrong.
With .9 left on the clock, less than a second, Killian Hayes pulls a rookie move and fouls Horton-Tucker.
The cameraman showed Coach Casey giving Hayes the "Are you kidding me??!!" stink-eye. Even the announcers commented on it.
Tucker hits 1 of 2 but that was all I needed for a second W on a LAL Ov that should have lost.

Buys:
Hou -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-4

Easy W with Houston last time in. Trying to be selective while I gather more data to use.

Buys:
Mia/Orl Ov 204
SA/Utah Ov 226

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 7-4

Continuing to be selective while I gather more data to use.
Determined to make a profit on NBA this season, I'm going to make fewer wagers/less action for the time being.

Buys:
Dal -2'
SA Ov 217

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-5
San Antonio game got canceled. Looked like Dallas was going to screw me by a half point and win by 2 when I was laying 2' but they gave up a three-pointer with 1/10 of a second left on the clock.
I applauded the shot - if you're not going to cover for me, FU, I hope you lose SU!

Today's question - do NBA players feel like running up and down the court after partying on New Year's Eve?
I thought tired legs meant higher scores because no defense, but last year January 1st Unders went 9-1.

I tried looking up data for the year before but can't access.
If anyone reads this and knows Ov/Un for the previous year please post up.

I'm going to look into this a little more, may play some of the early games Under to see how it goes. I'll post up if I buy.

 

[RBD]

Took another look at last year's New Year's day games.
Not only did the Un go 9-1, but they did so by an average of 19.5 pts per game. And every one of them was by double digits.

Not using them as recommended buys here cuz it's a crazy way to bet, but I thought I'd take the early game see how it went. Q1 was on an Under pace so I added the rest of the card just for fun to see if I can get a 4-2 day out of it.

 

[RBD]

Took another look at last year's New Year's day games. Not only did the Un go 9-1, but they did so by an average of 19.5 pts per game. And every one of them was by double digits.

Not using them as recommended buys here cuz it's a crazy way to bet, but I thought I'd take the early game, small bet, to see how it went. Q1 was on an Under pace so I added the rest of the card , small bets too, just for fun to see if I can get a 4-2 day out of it.

 

[RBD]

Well, that experiment worked great!
Every game went over, only saving grace was I forgot to get the last one in so I avoided one more loser.

Made some system-related buys today.

Buys:
Orl/Bos Ov 216
Phx/Char Ov 231
Min/LAL Ov 223
Ind/Cle Ov 209'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-1
Record: 10-6

A 3-1 day, but it didn't come easy.

Needed OT in the Boston game.

Needed Ov 210 in Ind/Cle. I had 172 at the end of the third, on pace for 229.
Needed only 39 pts in Q4 in a game they were avg'ing 57 per Q. Checked back near the end of Q4 and they were on pace for 204. WTF!!! Slid by with 212 final scored, thanks to two last minute 3 pt'ers by Indy.

And a smart, early buy saved me in Phx. I got 230, it closed at 234, landed 232.

Had a good pace at Laker's halftime, but scoring slowed in second half to give me the 3-1.

Sticking with picking conservatively, hope to have a few more situational spots to buy this week.

 

[RBD]

Record: 10-6

Buys:
SA/Tor Ov 224

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Got a 9 pt winner last time in.
Still being selective with my play in this, my toughest sport to beat.
Record: 11-6

Today - not much data on it as it's a spot that rarely comes up, but all three systems I use say take Memphis tonight. This has happened only three times this entire season:
11/9 all three said take Phil +5' (final score Mil 118 Phil 109)
11/29 all three said take Ok +2 (final score Hou 102 Ok 89)
12/11 all three said take SA +1 (final score Den 127 SA 112)

That's 0-3, by almost 10 pts avg with the spread. So, you know what I have to do, despite:
Memphis being on a 9 game W streak SU,
and 15-5 as Dogs,
and 11-3 vs Pacific Division opponents,
and 11-2 avenging a loss.

Buys:
GS -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
I bucked that Memphis 9 game winning streak and got my butt kicked.

Record: 11-7

Still capping everyday, not betting much, staying selective. I bought one today.

Buys:
Mil/LAC Un 228

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 11-8

Last play was way back on Feb 6. I've been 'capping every day though, should have been in here more as I have two spots working well at 31-16 (Overs) and 12-1 (Road Dogs), and one good fade at 7-13 (Road Favs.) Everything else is approx 50-50 so no value.
Now that college ball is nearly finished I'll start posting here more often.

Two spots today, an Ov (Dal/Wash) and a RD.
I've used Ov with Dal on Tue and Wed already this week, don't like to keep going back to the same spot. Opened 220', at 217'/216' now, if it drops to 215/216 I may be on it.
One buy for now.

UPDATE: If I hadn't already bought this game I would not do so now. I have a great stat on it (see above), one I've already banked a few units with, but looking at various write-ups around the net it seems almost everybody is on Min - and that's never a good thing. Not saying I would bet Den, but I'd much rather be opposite teams that get too much support, as Min seems to tonight. I'm not the buy-off type so I'll stick with what I have, but liked the spot much more this morning.

Buys:
Minn +3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 12-8

Turns out it didn't hurt being on the popular side as Minnesota gets the W. That Road Dog spot is now 13-1. That percentage has to start going back the other way, but at least I got to share a win with it here last night.

The other spot I mentioned, Ov in Dal/Wash also hit. That spot is now 32-16.

I just stopped by in case anyone was looking to see if anything was active today, unfortunately no. The only games that kicked out after I ran my numbers are two plays that are roughly 50/50, no advantage.

My stuff has no statistical edges on either of the college games either, so no recommended buys today.

Good luck with your play today...

 

[RBD]

Recap: No plays yesterday
Record: 12-8

I have a couple of spots active today.
The 32-16 spot has Mia/Tor Over.
And I have two fades, a 7-13 spot that says take Min, and a slight edge at 11-16 (59%) that says take Wash/Bos Under (so the fades would be take Houston plus the points and the Boston game Over.)

I'm not crazy about buying Houston with any amount of points, despite a 65% edge at 7-13.
And the number (223) is tight in the Boston game.
So, that leaves me with . . .

Buys: Mia/Tor Ov 212

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 13-8

I picked the spot I though was the strongest of the three active plays I had, Mia/Tor Ov 212, but it didn't matter which spot I went with as all three covered.

Mia/Tor cleared the hurdle by 11 pts, but the Boston Under fade was even better, soaring Over by 29 pts.
I didn't trust the fade Min spot that said take Hou +13', but with a 24 pt lead heading into the fourth quarter Min slacked off and got outscored by 17 pts in the fourth, allowing Hou to sneak in with a 6' pt cover.

I have a spot today, the Road Dog play (13-1 now after the Min spot I used here on April 1.)
Today's spot is Memphis +5'.

We're in that time of the season when there is an extra factor to be considered when 'capping games - incentive to play hard or slack/rest players due to playoff positioning. Which teams are fighting for positioning, which teams are just playing out the string? Handicapping is difficult enough without any extra factors to consider, so I'll be careful/conservative over the last week of the season.

Looking at today's only spot, Utah has more to play for, post-season positioning-wise, and despite not playing well recently they're always tough at home (27-11.)

Memphis has clinched a playoff spot and is locked into the #2 seed, so how many minutes will they play their starters in their final four games this week?

The +5' pts looks very tempting, and they're in that really strong RD spot I noted above, but I'm laying off this one, the main reason being this: I liked Memphis +8 vs Phx on Friday and didn't pull the trigger because I liked my Min +3 spot and chose to ride with that game alone.
And . . . the Grizzlies won by 8 SU.
One thing I hate to do as a bettor is to take a team after I stayed off them and they won, the dreaded "Johnny-come-lately" position. So, no buys for me tonight.

Good luck with your play today . . .