NBA Season 3
- Thread starter RBD
- Start date
Lowell, thanks for stopping by. Glad you got in on that spot.
No plays to recap from last night.
The only spot active was Memphis, who lost by 6 in OT.
The game closed at Utah -6 across the board, a PUSH for most bettors, but I'm charting it as a loss as it was 5' when I originally charted it. Because I decided to not play the game I didn't form any strategy as to when to buy - in the morning, or wait until later in the day because I expected it to go up - so I think charting it as an L is the right thing to do.
These records HAVE to be accurate or I'm only screwing myself since I use them as the basis for making buys.
So it looks like my decision to lay off the game was correct, as I had no chance to win, it would've been a loss or a push. That spot is now 13-2.
And no games tonight fit any of the situational spots I use, so I don't have to make a decision whether to buy anything or not, which is okay with me - as I said yesterday, I don't like the added handicapping factor of trying to figure out which teams are playing hard and which are just playing out the string over these last days of the season.
I didn't post many games this year, just 21, but at 13-8 I'll get out of the regular season with some house money to use during the post season. I'll post daily between now and Sunday, sharing any spots that are active, and whether I'm buying them or not. Looking forward to the post season starting on Tuesday with the play-in games. Hopefully, the spots that worked during the reg season will work in the post season. As a guideline, I'll post the regular season records for any spots that are active, but the records all revert back to 0-0 as the post season is a different animal.
Good luck with your play today . . .
No plays to recap from last night.
The only spot active was Memphis, who lost by 6 in OT.
The game closed at Utah -6 across the board, a PUSH for most bettors, but I'm charting it as a loss as it was 5' when I originally charted it. Because I decided to not play the game I didn't form any strategy as to when to buy - in the morning, or wait until later in the day because I expected it to go up - so I think charting it as an L is the right thing to do.
These records HAVE to be accurate or I'm only screwing myself since I use them as the basis for making buys.
So it looks like my decision to lay off the game was correct, as I had no chance to win, it would've been a loss or a push. That spot is now 13-2.
And no games tonight fit any of the situational spots I use, so I don't have to make a decision whether to buy anything or not, which is okay with me - as I said yesterday, I don't like the added handicapping factor of trying to figure out which teams are playing hard and which are just playing out the string over these last days of the season.
I didn't post many games this year, just 21, but at 13-8 I'll get out of the regular season with some house money to use during the post season. I'll post daily between now and Sunday, sharing any spots that are active, and whether I'm buying them or not. Looking forward to the post season starting on Tuesday with the play-in games. Hopefully, the spots that worked during the reg season will work in the post season. As a guideline, I'll post the regular season records for any spots that are active, but the records all revert back to 0-0 as the post season is a different animal.
Good luck with your play today . . .
Thanks RBD! Been following your buys.
Couldn?t reset my login to post my play nor to say thanks-it?s ok now.
Gl!
Couldn?t reset my login to post my play nor to say thanks-it?s ok now.
Gl!
Otro and TK - THANKS for stopping by for a visit, and - you're welcome.
Good luck to you this post season.
I had no buys yesterday, and there were no spots active so no reviews.
I have one today, and it's a tough call. It's Memphis in the RD spot again (13-2 now) same as they were in two nights ago when I stayed off the play. I didn't buy that spot because even though the +5' points looked good, Utah is tough at home and they had more post-season positioning incentive, while Memphis is locked into their playoff slot.
I was regretting not buying it when I checked the live feed and saw Utah was up by 2 pts with two seconds left in the game, Memphis with the ball, and they missed their shot.
BUT . . . Anderson tipped in the miss with a second left on the clock, sending it to OT where Utah won by 6 pts.
Similar spot today, but unlike Tue night I have no qualms ("qualms?" Who uses 'qualms??!!) about betting against Denver at home (Memphis has more SU RD wins than Den has SU HM wins.)
Still, Memphis is locked into the #2 spot while Denver is nipping at Utah who is one game up on them, and trying to fend off Min who is two games behind them with three games left to play.
So, clearly, the incentive edge goes to Denver, which is probably enough to make me lay off this one, again.
Then again, Memphis hasn't lost B2B RD games since October. OCTOBER.
When looking at edges/factors/numbers in these spots, and weighing decisions, my inclination is to lean on the incentive angle, so like I said, unless I see something that changes my mind, I'll sit this one out and wait for post season play.
If I do buy it, I'll post up. I just wanted to provide a little extra info to anyone looking for thoughts on tonight's match up.
Good luck with your play today...
UPDATE - Forgot to note one more reason for staying off games this week - look at the the weird scoring.
Phx puts up a 9 pt 2nd quarter last night, and then . . . a 48 pt 4th quarter, to sneak in a cover vs LAC. 48!!!
NYK put up 67 in the first half to lead by 17, then . . . just 31 pts total in the second half.
Bettors will get steadier results from full-on, all-out efforts in the post season.
Waiting for it might be the smart play.
Good luck to you this post season.
I had no buys yesterday, and there were no spots active so no reviews.
I have one today, and it's a tough call. It's Memphis in the RD spot again (13-2 now) same as they were in two nights ago when I stayed off the play. I didn't buy that spot because even though the +5' points looked good, Utah is tough at home and they had more post-season positioning incentive, while Memphis is locked into their playoff slot.
I was regretting not buying it when I checked the live feed and saw Utah was up by 2 pts with two seconds left in the game, Memphis with the ball, and they missed their shot.
BUT . . . Anderson tipped in the miss with a second left on the clock, sending it to OT where Utah won by 6 pts.
Similar spot today, but unlike Tue night I have no qualms ("qualms?" Who uses 'qualms??!!) about betting against Denver at home (Memphis has more SU RD wins than Den has SU HM wins.)
Still, Memphis is locked into the #2 spot while Denver is nipping at Utah who is one game up on them, and trying to fend off Min who is two games behind them with three games left to play.
So, clearly, the incentive edge goes to Denver, which is probably enough to make me lay off this one, again.
Then again, Memphis hasn't lost B2B RD games since October. OCTOBER.
When looking at edges/factors/numbers in these spots, and weighing decisions, my inclination is to lean on the incentive angle, so like I said, unless I see something that changes my mind, I'll sit this one out and wait for post season play.
If I do buy it, I'll post up. I just wanted to provide a little extra info to anyone looking for thoughts on tonight's match up.
Good luck with your play today...
UPDATE - Forgot to note one more reason for staying off games this week - look at the the weird scoring.
Phx puts up a 9 pt 2nd quarter last night, and then . . . a 48 pt 4th quarter, to sneak in a cover vs LAC. 48!!!
NYK put up 67 in the first half to lead by 17, then . . . just 31 pts total in the second half.
Bettors will get steadier results from full-on, all-out efforts in the post season.
Waiting for it might be the smart play.
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Yanno, thanks for stopping by.
Yeah, "qualms" looked weird as I wrote it, but "compunction" and "misgivings" are just as bad.
Should have went with "hesitation."
No buys yesterday so no recap.
The lone play active was on Memphis. Experience - "When looking at edges/factors/numbers in these spots, and weighing decisions, my inclination is to lean on the incentive angle" - saved me 1.1 units as the Grizzlies lost by 13.
One spot today, the RD spot again, Hou +11'.
This spot is now 13-3 after two straight losses, both with Memphis.
I think I mentioned somewhere above that 13-1 is more likely to regress than continue to win, so it would be wise to choose buys carefully when looking at these RD spots over the final week of the season.
I will stick with my strategy of the week and lay low until the playoffs unless I see something I really like. And I don't like this spot at all.
Hou is out of the playoffs and surely just playing out the string having lost five straight (though all were close games that would have covered tonight's #, except Brooklyn which was a 13 pt L.)
Toronto has won seven of their last eight games, four of which were blowouts that would cover tonight's spread, but they're locked into their playoff spot, so not much incentive for them either.
Best to lay off, and wait for a better opportunity.
Good luck with your play today.
Yeah, "qualms" looked weird as I wrote it, but "compunction" and "misgivings" are just as bad.
Should have went with "hesitation."
No buys yesterday so no recap.
The lone play active was on Memphis. Experience - "When looking at edges/factors/numbers in these spots, and weighing decisions, my inclination is to lean on the incentive angle" - saved me 1.1 units as the Grizzlies lost by 13.
One spot today, the RD spot again, Hou +11'.
This spot is now 13-3 after two straight losses, both with Memphis.
I think I mentioned somewhere above that 13-1 is more likely to regress than continue to win, so it would be wise to choose buys carefully when looking at these RD spots over the final week of the season.
I will stick with my strategy of the week and lay low until the playoffs unless I see something I really like. And I don't like this spot at all.
Hou is out of the playoffs and surely just playing out the string having lost five straight (though all were close games that would have covered tonight's #, except Brooklyn which was a 13 pt L.)
Toronto has won seven of their last eight games, four of which were blowouts that would cover tonight's spread, but they're locked into their playoff spot, so not much incentive for them either.
Best to lay off, and wait for a better opportunity.
Good luck with your play today.
No recap, no buys last night.
Record: 13-8
The only posted play won, Hou covered as a RD.
With such a small card, only four games, I didn't expect to get any plays today, but I have two.
GS/SA fits the Over spot that is 33-16.
And Sacramento fits the RD spot, 14-3.
I think there were three spots that fit this week and they went 1-2, which means my strategy of avoiding games from the last week of the season was the correct one. So I'll stick with it for this last day day of the season. Two good spots today but no buys for me.
See you next week.
Record: 13-8
The only posted play won, Hou covered as a RD.
With such a small card, only four games, I didn't expect to get any plays today, but I have two.
GS/SA fits the Over spot that is 33-16.
And Sacramento fits the RD spot, 14-3.
I think there were three spots that fit this week and they went 1-2, which means my strategy of avoiding games from the last week of the season was the correct one. So I'll stick with it for this last day day of the season. Two good spots today but no buys for me.
See you next week.
No buys yesterday, no recap.
Error in yesterday's post, it wasn't the last day of the season, today is.
Both spots that were active lost so it was another good day to lay off.
Today, two games fit the scenarios I use.
Same two spots as yesterday.
Ok/LAC Ov (33-17)
Ind (RD 14-4)
Avoiding these final games where motivation is questionable, as well as how many minutes (if any) starters are going to get, has been a good strategy and saved me a few units. No sense in abandoning it today on the final day of the season.
A game you win banks you +1.0
A game you lose costs you 1.1
Knowing when not to buy is as valuable as knowing when to buy.
You don't have to bet every day.
But books wish you would.
Error in yesterday's post, it wasn't the last day of the season, today is.
Both spots that were active lost so it was another good day to lay off.
Today, two games fit the scenarios I use.
Same two spots as yesterday.
Ok/LAC Ov (33-17)
Ind (RD 14-4)
Avoiding these final games where motivation is questionable, as well as how many minutes (if any) starters are going to get, has been a good strategy and saved me a few units. No sense in abandoning it today on the final day of the season.
A game you win banks you +1.0
A game you lose costs you 1.1
Knowing when not to buy is as valuable as knowing when to buy.
You don't have to bet every day.
But books wish you would.
No buys yesterday so no recap.
Posted spots went 2-0.
They went 3-4 for the week, so I saved 1.4 units by taking the week off, had I played all active spots.
Some preliminary thoughts entering the post season.
First up - the play in games. LY first round saw 1 Ov, 3 Un.
Favs were 2-2. The 2 L's were close, a 5 pt teaser would have been 4-0 on Favs, something to keep in mind if you're looking at a Fav but think the # is a few pts more than you'd like to give up.
Some final #'s from some of the spots I used in the reg season:
Ov 34-17, Un 10-12. No value on Unders, but Overs did well.
HF 9-13
HD 4-3
RF 7-14
RD 15-4
HD's had no value; HF's & RF's might be good for fades, RD's the best spot for buys.
I'll also track spots this post season that I dropped during the reg season as they hovered around .500; let's see if they have any value post season.
Still some 'capping to do, but here's what I have so far.
Cle fits RD spot. Great reg season at 15-4, but that's no guarantee it will work in the post season.
Digging deeper I see Brook took 3 of 4 reg season.
Cle lost 3 of their last 4 games, 5 of last 7, 8 of last 11. NOT good for a team that had a shot at avoiding the play-in games, finishing two behind the last qualifying team, Chicago.
We got legit effort/motivation from them the last two weeks, and they went 3-8 to close the season.
Is +8' enough? I don't think so but the record for the RD spot is tough to ignore.
I also have a spot I'll tag as WFO that says take LAC plus the pts.
These were 58-77 reg season, not great but profitable as a 57% fade.
And I have a spot that says take Char/Atl Ov; this spot was Ov 12-8, Un 5-6 reg season.
That's it for now.
No buys. Yet . . .
Posted spots went 2-0.
They went 3-4 for the week, so I saved 1.4 units by taking the week off, had I played all active spots.
Some preliminary thoughts entering the post season.
First up - the play in games. LY first round saw 1 Ov, 3 Un.
Favs were 2-2. The 2 L's were close, a 5 pt teaser would have been 4-0 on Favs, something to keep in mind if you're looking at a Fav but think the # is a few pts more than you'd like to give up.
Some final #'s from some of the spots I used in the reg season:
Ov 34-17, Un 10-12. No value on Unders, but Overs did well.
HF 9-13
HD 4-3
RF 7-14
RD 15-4
HD's had no value; HF's & RF's might be good for fades, RD's the best spot for buys.
I'll also track spots this post season that I dropped during the reg season as they hovered around .500; let's see if they have any value post season.
Still some 'capping to do, but here's what I have so far.
Cle fits RD spot. Great reg season at 15-4, but that's no guarantee it will work in the post season.
Digging deeper I see Brook took 3 of 4 reg season.
Cle lost 3 of their last 4 games, 5 of last 7, 8 of last 11. NOT good for a team that had a shot at avoiding the play-in games, finishing two behind the last qualifying team, Chicago.
We got legit effort/motivation from them the last two weeks, and they went 3-8 to close the season.
Is +8' enough? I don't think so but the record for the RD spot is tough to ignore.
I also have a spot I'll tag as WFO that says take LAC plus the pts.
These were 58-77 reg season, not great but profitable as a 57% fade.
And I have a spot that says take Char/Atl Ov; this spot was Ov 12-8, Un 5-6 reg season.
That's it for now.
No buys. Yet . . .
Not making any buys yesterday was not the right move.
RD spot won again, and the 57% spot that said "Fade the Clippers" also won.
And now I'm screwed because I have nothing tonight except the Charlotte/Atlanta Over spot, which has a nice W % at 60%, but it's based on a small data sample of only 20 games. And as I noted yesterday, the first round play-in games last year stayed Under in three of four games, and both of last night's games stayed Under (Brooklyn game by 4 points, Wolves game by 13.)
The other thing I noted yesterday about last year's first round was this:
"Favs were 2-2. The 2 L's were close, a 5 pt teaser would have been 4-0 on Favs, something to keep in mind if you're looking at a Fav but think the # is a few pts more than you'd like to give up."
That held true last night as Minnesota covered without any teaser needed, but Brooklyn didn't cover unless you teased them.
Home teams are doing well round one of the play-in at 6-0, and both teams tonight are -5' Favs which means a simple five-point teaser puts you in a position to only need a SU win from the home team.
So... since I have no strong systems active I'll lean on a teaser and hope the home field advantage edge holds up again.
Looking at the two games, I think Charlotte has a better chance at an upset than San Antonio. Plus, Popovich is an an asshole, and I always enjoy bettng and rooting against him.
Buys:
NO -1, -110 (4' pt teaser, 2nd spot open)
RD spot won again, and the 57% spot that said "Fade the Clippers" also won.
And now I'm screwed because I have nothing tonight except the Charlotte/Atlanta Over spot, which has a nice W % at 60%, but it's based on a small data sample of only 20 games. And as I noted yesterday, the first round play-in games last year stayed Under in three of four games, and both of last night's games stayed Under (Brooklyn game by 4 points, Wolves game by 13.)
The other thing I noted yesterday about last year's first round was this:
"Favs were 2-2. The 2 L's were close, a 5 pt teaser would have been 4-0 on Favs, something to keep in mind if you're looking at a Fav but think the # is a few pts more than you'd like to give up."
That held true last night as Minnesota covered without any teaser needed, but Brooklyn didn't cover unless you teased them.
Home teams are doing well round one of the play-in at 6-0, and both teams tonight are -5' Favs which means a simple five-point teaser puts you in a position to only need a SU win from the home team.
So... since I have no strong systems active I'll lean on a teaser and hope the home field advantage edge holds up again.
Looking at the two games, I think Charlotte has a better chance at an upset than San Antonio. Plus, Popovich is an an asshole, and I always enjoy bettng and rooting against him.
Buys:
NO -1, -110 (4' pt teaser, 2nd spot open)
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Because he coaches young men that bounce a ball and attempt to throw it in a hoop. He is not qualified or educated to wade into political issues and act like his opinion matters. He should keep his ideologies (garbage) to himself
English - how're things in NJ? I hope to get back there before the end of the year. Homesick.
I try to avoid politics on the internet, I didn't think calling popovich an asshole would elicit a response, but to answer your question - I like sports as a form of escapism, entertainment, a way to get away from all the shite going on in the world. When a coach is asked a question about the game in the post game press conference he should answer the question that was asked, not screech about his personal politics to prove his woke-ness regarding issues no one asked him about. If he was asked a political question, fine, answer it. But I don't like being preached to, especially not by hypocritical, kool-aid drinking, group-think drones.
Attacking Italian Americans for celebrating Columbus Day while at the same time playing deaf, dumb, and blind over the human rights violations of China just because they put money in his pocket, makes him an asshole in my book (well, that and a dozen other reasons.)
But that's just my opinion.
I'm sure some people like him.
Slumdog - good point.
Finito. Enough on my regrettable sidetrack, now back to sports and trying to figure out the post season.
Recap: Hit the first half of a teaser with N'awlins, but it wasn't a good bet. They won by 10, covered by 4' so the tease wasn't necessary.
Reviewing the stats/trends I mentioned on play-in games, both games stayed Under Wednesday night.
That's 4-0 Un this year after 3-1 last year.
Would I make a buy strictly on those stats alone? No. But it is another factor to consider when looking at pros and cons of making a buy.
The only spot I had active on Wed. was:
"Charlotte/Atlanta Over spot, which has a nice W % at 60%, but it's based on a small data sample of only 20 games. And as I noted yesterday, the first round play-in games last year stayed Under in three of four games, and both of last night's games stayed Under (Brooklyn game by 4 points, Wolves game by 13.)"
Here I chose the play-in trend towards Under rather than buy the 60% spot with only 20 games in the sample. (I shouldn't have said "20 games is a small sample"; it's actually a good sized sample, but I gave more weight to the recent trend and saved myself from taking a loss.
But it was close, and fishy.
The # was 235'. The score was 124-96 with just 2 minutes left, meaning as long as they don't score 16 pts in the final two minutes, the Under would come in.
In a tight game, with free throws likely in the final minutes, 16 could be tight. But with a 28 pt lead, this called for Atl using the entire shot clock and a low scoring final two.
But not only was Atl still shooting early in the shot clock, they were shooting three's, even when up by 26 pts with just 40 seconds left on the game clock, with more than ten seconds left on the shot clock!
And here's where it got really fishy - with just one second left on the clock and his team down by 29 pts, lamelo - in a totally classless move - tried to hit a layup that Dieng blocked.
The game stayed Un by 1/2 pt, but it was ugly.
Okay, a couple spots for today.
Sorry about the tags but I have to call them something.
OP (I use different color ink to track/separate plays in my logbook; I use orange ink for these, so, "O" for orange and "P" for play) has Atl/Cle Ov. These are 0-2 in the play-ins.
BP (Blue ink) has Atl/Cle Ov and NO/LAC Ov. No record for these in play-ins, 81-91 reg season (no value.)
I also have a spot that says take Cle. First one for this post in play-ins, reg season was 25-33, a 57% fade.
At 0-2 for OP spots, and the recent trend towards Unders, I looked at taking Atl/Cle Under. But, I like it Over just at first glance, and after the fishy final two minutes last Atl game I'm leery of taking the Un.
And LY's two elimination games both sailed Over (I think. I'll double check and correct if I'm wrong. UPDATE - both games went Over, but one needed OT to get there.)
So, not sure what I'll do here. Leaning towards buying the Ov in Atl.
I am definitely fading the Cle spot though.
Buys:
Atl -2
UPDATE - Atl temporarily off the board where I just went to bet it, must be a player update. It was -2 most houses, and that's what I posted so that's what I'll use, but see -1/-1' popping up now.
I try to avoid politics on the internet, I didn't think calling popovich an asshole would elicit a response, but to answer your question - I like sports as a form of escapism, entertainment, a way to get away from all the shite going on in the world. When a coach is asked a question about the game in the post game press conference he should answer the question that was asked, not screech about his personal politics to prove his woke-ness regarding issues no one asked him about. If he was asked a political question, fine, answer it. But I don't like being preached to, especially not by hypocritical, kool-aid drinking, group-think drones.
Attacking Italian Americans for celebrating Columbus Day while at the same time playing deaf, dumb, and blind over the human rights violations of China just because they put money in his pocket, makes him an asshole in my book (well, that and a dozen other reasons.)
But that's just my opinion.
I'm sure some people like him.
Slumdog - good point.
Finito. Enough on my regrettable sidetrack, now back to sports and trying to figure out the post season.
Recap: Hit the first half of a teaser with N'awlins, but it wasn't a good bet. They won by 10, covered by 4' so the tease wasn't necessary.
Reviewing the stats/trends I mentioned on play-in games, both games stayed Under Wednesday night.
That's 4-0 Un this year after 3-1 last year.
Would I make a buy strictly on those stats alone? No. But it is another factor to consider when looking at pros and cons of making a buy.
The only spot I had active on Wed. was:
"Charlotte/Atlanta Over spot, which has a nice W % at 60%, but it's based on a small data sample of only 20 games. And as I noted yesterday, the first round play-in games last year stayed Under in three of four games, and both of last night's games stayed Under (Brooklyn game by 4 points, Wolves game by 13.)"
Here I chose the play-in trend towards Under rather than buy the 60% spot with only 20 games in the sample. (I shouldn't have said "20 games is a small sample"; it's actually a good sized sample, but I gave more weight to the recent trend and saved myself from taking a loss.
But it was close, and fishy.
The # was 235'. The score was 124-96 with just 2 minutes left, meaning as long as they don't score 16 pts in the final two minutes, the Under would come in.
In a tight game, with free throws likely in the final minutes, 16 could be tight. But with a 28 pt lead, this called for Atl using the entire shot clock and a low scoring final two.
But not only was Atl still shooting early in the shot clock, they were shooting three's, even when up by 26 pts with just 40 seconds left on the game clock, with more than ten seconds left on the shot clock!
And here's where it got really fishy - with just one second left on the clock and his team down by 29 pts, lamelo - in a totally classless move - tried to hit a layup that Dieng blocked.
The game stayed Un by 1/2 pt, but it was ugly.
Okay, a couple spots for today.
Sorry about the tags but I have to call them something.
OP (I use different color ink to track/separate plays in my logbook; I use orange ink for these, so, "O" for orange and "P" for play) has Atl/Cle Ov. These are 0-2 in the play-ins.
BP (Blue ink) has Atl/Cle Ov and NO/LAC Ov. No record for these in play-ins, 81-91 reg season (no value.)
I also have a spot that says take Cle. First one for this post in play-ins, reg season was 25-33, a 57% fade.
At 0-2 for OP spots, and the recent trend towards Unders, I looked at taking Atl/Cle Under. But, I like it Over just at first glance, and after the fishy final two minutes last Atl game I'm leery of taking the Un.
And LY's two elimination games both sailed Over (I think. I'll double check and correct if I'm wrong. UPDATE - both games went Over, but one needed OT to get there.)
So, not sure what I'll do here. Leaning towards buying the Ov in Atl.
I am definitely fading the Cle spot though.
Buys:
Atl -2
UPDATE - Atl temporarily off the board where I just went to bet it, must be a player update. It was -2 most houses, and that's what I posted so that's what I'll use, but see -1/-1' popping up now.
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Recap: 1-0
Playoff Record: 1-0
Yeah, I liked that buy. Had a spot that was a 57% fade regular season that called for a play on a young, inexperienced Cleveland team. Atlanta got some seasoning in the playoffs last year and and did very well, and that was the edge I looked for in last night's matchup.
Today I have a couple spots to choose from:
BW has Minnesota. This is 0-0 postseason, 31-34 when I stop charting it in January of the regular season because there was no value in it.
OW has Toronto. This is 0-0 postseason, 34-39 when I stop charting it in January of the regular season because there was no value in it.
GP Over has Utah/Dallas, 0-0 postseason
BP Over has Utah/Dallas, Tor/Phil, 0-0 postseason
OP Over has Den/GS, 0-2 this postseason.
(Every game this week has been an Under, will we finally see an Over today?)
Have a lot to sort out, a lot more to look at.
Not to mention - it's the opening day of the USFL!
I don't know about this new version but I loved the old version with the Jim Kelly running the Houston Gamblers run and shoot offense.
Back with buys a little later after I do some more research.
Good luck with your play today...
Update: the problem with having a game like yesterday's, where I not only had one of my plays active but also a good feel for the game, is it spoils you when you look for your next play. You want something just as strong. I don't have that today, so I'll likely just play the USFL game.
Playoff Record: 1-0
Yeah, I liked that buy. Had a spot that was a 57% fade regular season that called for a play on a young, inexperienced Cleveland team. Atlanta got some seasoning in the playoffs last year and and did very well, and that was the edge I looked for in last night's matchup.
Today I have a couple spots to choose from:
BW has Minnesota. This is 0-0 postseason, 31-34 when I stop charting it in January of the regular season because there was no value in it.
OW has Toronto. This is 0-0 postseason, 34-39 when I stop charting it in January of the regular season because there was no value in it.
GP Over has Utah/Dallas, 0-0 postseason
BP Over has Utah/Dallas, Tor/Phil, 0-0 postseason
OP Over has Den/GS, 0-2 this postseason.
(Every game this week has been an Under, will we finally see an Over today?)
Have a lot to sort out, a lot more to look at.
Not to mention - it's the opening day of the USFL!
I don't know about this new version but I loved the old version with the Jim Kelly running the Houston Gamblers run and shoot offense.
Back with buys a little later after I do some more research.
Good luck with your play today...
Update: the problem with having a game like yesterday's, where I not only had one of my plays active but also a good feel for the game, is it spoils you when you look for your next play. You want something just as strong. I don't have that today, so I'll likely just play the USFL game.
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No buys yesterday.
Record: 1-0
Today's spots:
BP Ov has Atl/Mia, Brook/Bos; 1-3 post season
OP Ov has Brook/Bos; 1-3 post season
OP Un has Atl/Mia; 0-0 post season
BW has Atl; 1-0 post season
Two 1-3 spots say take the Brooklyn game Ov, possible fade there.
No buys yet, want to do some more research.
I'll add a new post and bump this to the top if I buy a game.
Good luck with your play today.
Record: 1-0
Today's spots:
BP Ov has Atl/Mia, Brook/Bos; 1-3 post season
OP Ov has Brook/Bos; 1-3 post season
OP Un has Atl/Mia; 0-0 post season
BW has Atl; 1-0 post season
Two 1-3 spots say take the Brooklyn game Ov, possible fade there.
No buys yet, want to do some more research.
I'll add a new post and bump this to the top if I buy a game.
Good luck with your play today.
Recap: 1-1
Record: 2-1
Review: I strayed away from my usual "Play only situational spots" mantra and took two plays that did not fit any of my plays. Hit with Phx to close out the open parlay, missed with the team total.
Five spots today.
GP Ov has Utah/Dal (0-1)
BP Ov has Tor/Phil, Utah/Dal (2-4)
OP Ov has Tor/Phil Ov (2-3)
BW has Dal (1-1)
I'm not getting the plays I wanted (the RD spot.)
And not a lot of data to utilize.
I don't see a clear, strong play, and when nothing stands out you're usually better off not forcing anything.
Record: 2-1
Review: I strayed away from my usual "Play only situational spots" mantra and took two plays that did not fit any of my plays. Hit with Phx to close out the open parlay, missed with the team total.
Five spots today.
GP Ov has Utah/Dal (0-1)
BP Ov has Tor/Phil, Utah/Dal (2-4)
OP Ov has Tor/Phil Ov (2-3)
BW has Dal (1-1)
I'm not getting the plays I wanted (the RD spot.)
And not a lot of data to utilize.
I don't see a clear, strong play, and when nothing stands out you're usually better off not forcing anything.
Recap: No buys yesterday
Record: 2-1
Normally on the day after I took a night off I know if it was the right move or not, based on what I would have bet. I was so clueless yesterday that I have no idea what I would have bet, so it was probably a good thing to lay off the games. Posted spots went 3-2.
Here's what I have to choose from today:
BP Ov has Atl/Mia (these spots are 3-5 this post season)
OP Ov has Min/Mem (2-3)
BW has ATL, Min (2-1)
OW has Min (0-2)
A play I chart but haven't posted (because it had no value reg season at 10-10) has Min/Mem Ov (0-0 post season)
And . . . RD spot has Atlanta (1-0 post season)
At 0-2 I'd like to fade the OW spot on Min, but BW has Min too, and that spot is 2-1 so they cancel each other out. As great as Mem has been this season, Min has taken 3 of 5 games, so I don't like laying 6' here.
After a 15-4 reg season, and at 1-0 post season, I have to take Atlanta in the RD spot.
Just looking over the card, before I started 'capping this morning, I liked Mia -7. In game one, after the play-in win against Cleveland, Atl looked flatter than Kate Hudson, but that's no excuse for getting beat by 24 pts. I don't think 7/7' is enough, but I have to ride with the RD spot.
Buys:
Atl (wait to buy; board is split between 7/7', maybe I can get another 1/2 pt here)
Update: 7' across the board now, might as well wait a little longer
Record: 2-1
Normally on the day after I took a night off I know if it was the right move or not, based on what I would have bet. I was so clueless yesterday that I have no idea what I would have bet, so it was probably a good thing to lay off the games. Posted spots went 3-2.
Here's what I have to choose from today:
BP Ov has Atl/Mia (these spots are 3-5 this post season)
OP Ov has Min/Mem (2-3)
BW has ATL, Min (2-1)
OW has Min (0-2)
A play I chart but haven't posted (because it had no value reg season at 10-10) has Min/Mem Ov (0-0 post season)
And . . . RD spot has Atlanta (1-0 post season)
At 0-2 I'd like to fade the OW spot on Min, but BW has Min too, and that spot is 2-1 so they cancel each other out. As great as Mem has been this season, Min has taken 3 of 5 games, so I don't like laying 6' here.
After a 15-4 reg season, and at 1-0 post season, I have to take Atlanta in the RD spot.
Just looking over the card, before I started 'capping this morning, I liked Mia -7. In game one, after the play-in win against Cleveland, Atl looked flatter than Kate Hudson, but that's no excuse for getting beat by 24 pts. I don't think 7/7' is enough, but I have to ride with the RD spot.
Buys:
Atl (wait to buy; board is split between 7/7', maybe I can get another 1/2 pt here)
Update: 7' across the board now, might as well wait a little longer
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Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-2
Missed with Atlanta +7'. From yesterday:
"Just looking over the card, before I started 'capping this morning, I liked Mia -7. After getting beat by 24 pts I don't think 7/7' is enough, but I have to ride with the RD spot."
Turns out 7' wasn't enough, fell just short by 2'.
No regrets, have to ride any spot with #'s like the RD spot has.
Today's spots:
BP Ov has Phil/Tor (4-5)
OP Ov has Brook/Bos (2-4)
GW has Tor (0-1)
OW has NJ, Tor (0-3)
All four spots active today have losing records. I'm going to open up my play and fade all of them.
Buys:
Brook/Bos Un 226'
Phil/Tor Un (wait, 216'/217 now but the # is rising) UPDATE: 217' across the board, wait a little longer)
Phil -2
Bos - 3'
Record: 2-2
Missed with Atlanta +7'. From yesterday:
"Just looking over the card, before I started 'capping this morning, I liked Mia -7. After getting beat by 24 pts I don't think 7/7' is enough, but I have to ride with the RD spot."
Turns out 7' wasn't enough, fell just short by 2'.
No regrets, have to ride any spot with #'s like the RD spot has.
Today's spots:
BP Ov has Phil/Tor (4-5)
OP Ov has Brook/Bos (2-4)
GW has Tor (0-1)
OW has NJ, Tor (0-3)
All four spots active today have losing records. I'm going to open up my play and fade all of them.
Buys:
Brook/Bos Un 226'
Phil/Tor Un (wait, 216'/217 now but the # is rising) UPDATE: 217' across the board, wait a little longer)
Phil -2
Bos - 3'
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