NBA Season 3

[RBD]

Recap: 4-0
Record: 6-2

Had an Under in a game that went into OT.
That's usually the death knell, but . . . I survived.
Thank you, Mr. Embiid.

Today's spots:

BP Ov has Dal/Utah (4-6)
GW has Min, Den (0-2)
BW has Min (2-3)

Two spots, both with losing records, call for Min; I'll buy the fade.
Might fade the late spot, too, will decide later this evening.

UPDATE - I forgot to 'cap the HF/HD/RF/RD spots! Back ASAP.

Update #2: One spot fits, GS. The record for Road Favs this post season is 0-0.
Reg season, RF was the worst of the four situations (HF, HD, RF, RD) at 7-14.
Like I always say, what worked during the regular season may not work post season as the playoffs are a different animal.
And vice-versa - what didn't work reg season may work in the playoffs.

I have no post season data to work with on this spot as it's 0-0, but the game also fits the GW spot which is 0-2, and will be either 0-3 or 1-2 after the Mem/Min results are in.
If Mem wins and I have an 0-3 spot to consider in the late game, it will be a tough call to make: ride the 0-3 spot or lay off due to the 7-14/0-0.

Buys:
Mem -1'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-2

Today's spots:
GP Ov has Mil/Chi, Phx/NO (1-1)
BP Ov has Phx/NO (4-6)
GW has Atl, Chi (0-4)
OW has NO (0-5)
HF/HD/RF/RD spot has Mia (RF is 1-0)

There are two ways to look at a day after a win like I had with Memphis last night, a game that should have gone into the L column:

The first - "I'm invincible!"
The second - "Any luck I had was certainly used up in that game."

When I hear, "I'm invincible" in my head, I hear it in the voice of the Black Knight (The Monty Python version, not the Marvel version.) So, in my thinking I lean to the second option, I used up all my luck, might be a good time to take a day off.

Last night, that's what I thought I'd do, take today off.
But this morning, I did my 'capping and see I have some good options to choose from.

The GW spot is 0-4 now after last night's two losses, and has two more to choose from today.
And the OW spot is 0-5 and has one spot active tonight.
And though the RF spot was 7-14 reg season, it came through last night and is 1-0 post season.

Not sure what I'll do today.
I'll lay off the totals for sure, but it's hard to ignore the two GW spots (0-4) especially the fade on Atl as Mia fits RF (1-0) too.
At 0-5 the OW spot looks strong for a NO fade, but Phx has a lousy record (2-5?) without Booker, but that was reg season, can they rise to the occasion in the playoffs?

I'll add a reply to bump this up if I buy anything.

 

[lowell]

Nice 2 day streak.Good luck if you buy today.

 

[RBD]

Thanks, Lowell. Good luck to you too.

No buys, so no recap.
Record: 7-2

Good move taking yesterday off. My best bet was Miami and they lost, so I would have been 0-1 or 1-1 on the day.

I have a lot to choose from today.

BP Ov has Phil/Tor, Dal/Utah (5-6)

OP Ov has Phil/Tor, Bos/Brook (2-5)

A play I chart but haven't posted (because it had no value reg season at 11-17) has Bos/Brook Un (0-0 post season.)

GW has Tor, Min (1-5)

BW has Min (2-4)

OW has Dal (0-6)

And Bos is in the RD spot (1-1)
Bos mostly +3 out there but a couple of 3' showing up. I like this RD spot.

I'm going to start with the early game GW fade.

Buys:
Phil (wait a little to buy it, -3 is the common number but I see a couple of -2' out out there and a single -3'. If it starts to move to -3' grab the -3, but worth waiting a little while to see if some Toronto money comes in as bettors think the Raptors will have extra incentive to avoid the sweep at home.)

Update: -2' is the common number now, easily available across the board.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-3

Today . . .

GP Ov has Mil/Chi, Phx/NO (1-5)
BP Ov has Mil/Chi, Phx/NO (5-8)
Despite the lousy record on these, despite all the Unders yesterday, I really like both of these games Over.

GW has Chi, Den, Atl (3-5)
OW has NO (1-6)

RF spot has GS (1-1)

Buys:
GS -4

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-4

Today's spots:

BP Ov has all three games (6-9)
OP Ov has Tor/Phil (2-7)

OW has Bos (2-6)

RD has Bos (2-1, post season; 15-4 reg season)
HF has Dal (0-0 post season; 9-13 reg season)

Got conflicting spots in Bos/Brook.
OW has Bos (a good fade at 2-6) but RD has Bos and that's strong both reg season (15-4) and post (2-1).
Two possible series sweeps went to the 0-3 team (Tor & Den); Brook is 0-3 going into tonight's game.
With conflicting stats like this I should probably lay off - but I don't think I will.

BP Ov is just 6-9, but 1-0 when using Bos/Brook and 2-1 on Utah/Dal.
BP is 1-3 on Phil/Tor, and I also have OP Ov on Tor/Phil and that is a 2-7 spot overall, and 0-2 on Tor/Phil.
So, with a 1-3 fade and an 0-2 fade, I'm on that game Un.

I believe I'm also going to buy a few other spots, will bump with a new post when I do.

UPDATE: I really want to pull the trigger on Brook, and the Ov as well. Problem is - if they quit because they're down 0-3, I lose both bets. If I had spots with these same stats in a different game, one that wasn't an elimination game, I'd buy both. I'm itching to pull the trigger, but . . .

Buys:
Tor/Phil Un 210

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 8-4

Using these situational spots in the NBA, I was 13-8 in a shortened reg season, and have a post season thus far of 8-4. That's a combined 21-12 for a nice profit with limited buys. But I'd rather have a nice profit from limited buys than a lot of action while struggling to stay above .500 any sport, any season.
Especially the NBA.

Yesterday, I "dug deeper" when 'capping.
After I ran the #'s to see which games were possible buys, I went one step further.
I had been posting the records for how all teams did in any given spot, such as "OP Overs are 2-7."
Then I dug deeper to see that within that 2-7 for all teams, the Tor/Phil match up was 0-2.
I also had BP Over at 6-9, but within that 6-9, Tor/Phil was 1-3.
That made the two plays a combined 1-5.
And that's where I made the decision to buy.

If you're doing your own 'capping, DIG DEEPER, look for "Plays within a play" to get more data to help you make your decisions.

Today . . .
GP Ov has NO/Phx (2-6)
BP Ov has NO/Phx (7-11)

Following the advice I just posted about digging deeper, I see . . .
GP Ov is just 2-6, but 2-0 on NO/Phx, and BP Ov is 7-11, but 2-0 when using NO/Phx.

Overall records (a combined 9-17) call for a fade in both spots,
but team-specific stats (a combined 4-0) say take the Over.

I'd lean to the Over, using the same theory as yesterday, but yesterday I had SEVEN different spots to choose from, I only have two today, and both are the same, NO/Phx Ov.
I like choices. Today, I'm limited so I'll take the day off.

Good luck with your play today . . .

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.
Atl/Mia was a late add-on to my charts as a GP Over spot.

Record: 8-4

Today's spots:

GP Ov has Chi/Mil (2-8)
BP Ov has Chi/Mil (7-12)
OP Ov has Den/GS (2-8)
And the play I have charted but not posted during the reg season has Chi/Mil Un (1-0 post season.)

Good stats to fade the GP (2-8) & BP (7-12) spots for Chi/Min Ov, and they look even better when digging deeper: GP Ov for Chi/Mil is 0-2, BP is 0-1, combined 0-3.
But . . . yesterday's NO/Phx Ov looked good for the same reason, both were 2-0, and the game stayed Un (though it took a poor scoring output by BOTH teams in the 4th quarter; the game had Over written all over it until mid Q4. If just one of the two had an avg scoring 4th quarter the game goes OV.)
The other spot I chart has the game Un and is 1-0.
So, three spots have good numbers for the Under. But, I'm wary.

Also have a good fade for Den/GS with the 2-8 OP spot, but it's 1-0 with Den/GS Ov.

If I use both plays, Chi/Mil Un and Den/GS Un, I see a better chance at 1-1 than 2-0 so I'll likely pass.
Later this morning I'm going to 'cap my own post season play, check my record on Overs/Unders, HF's, HD's, RF's and RD's to see how I'm doing in each category, maybe I'll see something that will make me add a buy later. And if the early game goes Ov I may buy the later game Un as I think 1-1 is much more likely than 0-2. That's the strategy for today. For now.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday.

Record: 8-4

Talked myself out of a couple of winners yesterday, but that's okay, I talked myself out of a couple of buys this week that would have cost me units.
Almost had the setup I was looking for - an Ov in the first game that would have positioned me to buy the Un in the late game, but Chi/Mil came up 1 pt short of an Ov.

I have some choices today that I like.

GP Ov has Phx/NO (2-9)
BP Ov has Phil/Tor, Phx/NO (7-12; Correction: 7-13)

GW has Tor (4-7)

And, the RD spot has Dal (3-1)

Okay, let's dissect them.
GP Ov is Fadeable at 2-9 (81%), BUT . . . it's 2-1 in the Phx/NO match up.
BP is solid Fade material at 7-12 (Correction: 7-13)m 65%, BUT . . . it's 2-0 on Phx/NO.
On Phil/Tor it's 1-4, so good stuff there.
The RD spot is 3-1 (0-0 on Dal), and the GW spot is 4-7 (1-1 on Tor)

Buying at least one of these, after I do some more research.

Update: Buy added

Update #2: It's a couple minutes before tip off, and the Sun's just eliminated New Orleans. This, after Philadelphia eliminated Toronto. I was hoping one of the two dogs would win and extend their series because now, if Dallas wins, there will be no NBA product to display on Saturday.
Now, I'm not one of those "Everything's fixed!" conspiracy theorist guys, but when I heard that the league just called Tim Donaghy in as a last minute emergency replacement ref for tonight's Dal/Den game, well, let's just say I'm having second thoughts about my bet.

Buys:
Dal (wait; +1 rare now, +1/2 is easy to get, pick 'em too. and -1; I doubt there will be a buy-back on Utah but can't hurt to wait as +1/2 and pick are the same thing; I bought it earlier at +1 but didn't post it so if I don't post an update I'll use pk here.)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-4

Close one, but got by with the Mavs for a W.

Best move of the night was the game I didn't buy, the very tempting Fade on BP Ov with Philly/Tor.
BP had it at 7-13 all match ups (65%) and 1-4 for Phil/Tor specifically.
So - why no buy on it?
Because going into last night, Unders had a 31-14 edge in the post season. That's 68%!!!
Over time, most stats level out. The odds say there is very little chance that an edge like that will continue.
I had just hit with an Un on the previous game between Philly and Tor and decided it was a situation where I would bank the unit rather than let it ride on the next game.
And . . . Philly scored 132 as the game sailed Ov by 19' pts.
Two of three went Ov last night, so Unders are 32-16 now. Be selective when using them in the next round.

Today, only one game on the card.
GP Ov has Mem/Min (3-9)
BP Ov has Mem/Min (9-13)
GW has Min (4-8)

Digging deeper, I see this is the first time Mem/Min has been a play for GP Ov and BP Ov.
So, 0-0; no edge there, no help.
Min has been in the GW spot twice, 1-1 so no edge/help there either.

I lean towards Memphis because of the GW spot, but they seem to be the public pick by a large margin, I see very little love for Min out there. And that makes me leery of using the Grizz.
With only one game to choose from and not very strong edges in the few spots active in it, I'll likely take the night off and look to round two for my next buy.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Both posted fades won last time in on Friday.

I got out of the opening round of the playoffs/play-ins with a nice profit at 9-4. Going into round two I want to do something different this year. I'm going to start at 0-0 again. I think it'll help my selectiveness treating the NBA like MLB, working in small windows, trying to close out with a win in each one. It might work, it might not, but I know that what I did the last two years didn't work as I gave some units back in the later rounds, so I'll try something different this year.

I have a few spots today, and while I do have records from the opening round on these plays they are for different matchups. It's almost like starting again with the new matchups that we have in the semifinals.
I'll post the first round records next to each play but keep in mind what worked in round one may not work in round two with different teams playing each other.

GP Ov has Mil/Bos (3-10)
BP Ov has Mil/Bos, GS/Mem (9-14)
GW has Mem (4-9)
BW has Mil (3-4)
OW has Mem (3-6)

I'm tempted to take the day off and get some data on these new matchups before I start making buys, but that's no fun.
I'm going to do a little more research and I'll be back with a play.

Update: Adding a buy.

Buys:
GS -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 0-1

That was probably the worst beat of the NBA season for me.
GS had a 10 pt lead in the fourth quarter - blew it.
Had a 1 pt lead, about 10 seconds left, on the free throw line, Klay misses not one but BOTH shots.
After the second missed FT the ball goes out of bounds on Memphis, but . . . the refs miss the call and say it's a jump ball. Should have been GS's ball and two more FT's. Memphis wins the tip, misses their shot, game over.

I liked GS to win SU.
I had two plays that combined for a 15-7 (68%) Fade on Memphis.
The line was GS - 2, meaning only one #, the #1, could hurt me if GS won the game, a 1 pt win.
And that's what happened.

Only one play qualifies today: BP Ov in Phil/Mia.
These spots were 9-14 post season; 1-1 in Round 2. (CORRECTION, 9-14, not 9-4; sorry)

I look for choices when I 'cap, but I'm glad I don't have any today. I don't feel like buying anything, after a loss like yesterday's it's good to take a day off.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record: 0-1

I have a few spots today.

GP Ov has Mil/Bos (3-10 rnd one; 0-1 semi-finals)
BP Ov has Mil/Bos (9-14 rnd one; 0-1 semi-finals)
GW has Mem (4-9 rnd one; 1-0 semi-finals)
BW has Mem (3-4 rnd one; 1-0 semi-finals)
And the play I have charted but not posted during the reg season has GS/Mem Ov (0-1 Rnd one)

Same setup as the first games, Ov in both GP & BP, and Mem as a play in both GW & BW.

I got screwed by GS and the refs in game one using the Fade Mem spot; once bitten, twice shy.

And I stayed off fading the Ov, so that puts me in the spot I hate, "Johnny-Come-Lately": jumping on a play after I laid off of it in the previous game, and it won.

That leaves me with a possible buy on the final play, the 0-1 spot, a Fade on GS/Mem Ov.
I think that line climbs, so no sense buying an Un now IF I decide to buy it.
Still looking, thinking.

Will bump up with a new post if I buy anything.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record: 0-1

CORRECTION on yesterday's plays. The BW spot was Mil, not Mem.

I did okay not trusting GS like I did in the same spot Sunday. The problem in game one (even though they barely got by with a 1 pt win) was they couldn't stop one guy - Ja, as he put up 34 pts against them.
So Boy Genius Kerr put in a game plan to stop Morant in game two - and he scored 47.

I didn't do okay not getting in on the only spot I had circled, GS/Mem Under.

Today . . .
GP Ov has Phil/Mia (3-12 rnd one, 0-2 semi-finals)
BP Ov has Phil/Mia (10-17 rnd one, 1-2 semi-finals)

It's going to be slim pickings through the remainder of the playoffs.
I doubt I'll have any more spots in the only play I have that was a solid winner , reg season and post,
RD's, 15-4 reg season, 4-1 post. That means I have to lean on Fade spots, and I won't get many of those to choose from either.

I have good #'s on Phil/Mia tonight but as I've said, I'm leery of Unders because of the Pendulum Effect.
They were 33-16 in the play-ins and 1st round, 67%.
In the semi-finals they're 4-2, 66%.
I just can't see those numbers NOT leveling out, for two reasons:

1 - it's the nature of the numbers, sooner or later everything levels out
2 - the books keep dropping the totals because bettors are aware of the high % of Unders and keep betting them

The pendulum eventually swings back the other way. Always. The question is - when?

I'll post a reply if I buy.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record: 0-1

Good move factoring in the "Pendulum Effect" and looking past the solid #'s I had on the Phil/Mia game (a combined Fade of 13-29, 69%.) Both games went Over, so the semi's are 4-4 now on Ov/Un.

Today I have no plays for totals, but I do have three spots to choose from:
GW has Dal (2-0) CORRECTION: GW also has Phil
BW has Phil (1-1)
OW has Phil and Dal (1-0)

The records for the semi's say play ON these three spots tonight , but overall post season they are all below .500, so no clear path to a buy there.

I really want to buy something though, so I have an interest in tonight's games, but I have no strong #'s to go with. And it's NOT a good week for me to go off the reservation and buy something that's not from one of my spots, as evidenced by my MLB non-system buys this week (0-3.)

Hate to do it because the season is coming to a close soon, but I'll likely take another night off.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record: 0-1

All five "W" spots won yesterday.
I didn't buy any because the record for these spots in the postseason was a combined 14-20, but in the semi-finals these are a combined 9-1, so maybe give a little more weight to the semifinal numbers?

No matter, I don't have any today.

I do have two totals to choose from, though in the same game.
GP Ov has Bos/Mil (4-12)
BP Ov has Bos/Mil (11-17)

Digging deeper, I see that in the semifinals both of these plays are 0-2.
Both GP & BP called for Overs in each of the first two games, and fell short by double digits in both of them. Makes today's choice easy, right?
No.
I like the Over.
Enough to use it as a buy recommendation?
I'm thinking on it.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record in the semifinals 0-1.

It took a lot of discipline for me to lay off the Over in the Bos/Mil game yesterday, and I'm glad I did. It would have been a tough loss to take after watching the game stay under by just four points because they went a combined 18-57 from three point range.

Today . . .
GP Ov has Mia/Phil(4-13)
GW has Dal (8-9)
And the spot I tracked all year but just started posting in the postseason has Phx/Dal Un (2-0)

Clearly I should have more units banked from Fading the GP Ov spots, 4-13, a 76% play. I've been doing a lousy job on using those.
Of course, this means if I jump on them now (Johnny-Come-Lately) I'll get screwed as the pendulum will start swinging the other way.

Digging deeper I see that in the semi-finals the GP Ov in Mia/Phil is 1-0, which gives me a little room to consider going against a 4-13 spot and taking the Ov.

I'm buying something today, but not sure what.

 

[RBD]

Buys:
Phx/Dal Un 215
Phx - 2'

 

[lowell]

Good luck. At age 37 Chris Paul doesn?t need 7 game series. Suns should bring their A game.

 

[RBD]

Lowell, I thought so too, but with four early fouls, Paul was unfortunately removed from the equation.
I'll take a split and be happy because that game had "Over" written all over it after 62 pts in Q1 and 124 at halftime, leaving just 91 pts needed (45.5 per quarter) in the second half to kill my Under.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 1-2

Today . . .
GP Ov has Bos/Mil (4-13 post season; 2-3 semis)
BP Ov has Bos/Mil (11-18; 1-3)

Five of seven Bos playoff games have stayed Un the number.
All eight Mil playoff games have stayed Under.
That's a combined 13-2 to the Un.

GP Ov and BP Ov in this series are a combined 0-6 on Overs, a 6-0 Fade that says take the Under.
So, I have a 13-2 stat that says Un, and a 6-0 stat that says Un.

Let's look at the Bos/Mil series, gm total, result.
Gm 1: total 218; result 190; diff 28
Gm 2: total 216; result 195; diff 21
Gm 3 total 211'; result 204; diff 7'
Gm 4 total 212'; result n/a

The first two games stayed Un by an avg of 24.5 pts. That's a LOT.
And after each, the posted total dropped (2 pts after gm 1; 4' pts after gm 2.)
In my game three write-up I said I liked the Ov but was struggling trying to make a buy going against the strong numbers I have that called for the Un.
I chose to not buy it, and game three stayed Un.

I was hoping that after all three games stayed Un I'd get another drop from the posted 211' last game,
but the number went up one, to 212' for tonight's contest.

Gm three missed going Ov by 7', in large part because they went a combined 18 of 67 (26%) from the three pt line. Believing that would not happen again, I was ready to jump on the Ov in gm 4 if they dropped the total after another Un in gm 3. But, no.

Same quandary (quandary??!!) as gm 3 - do I ignore the STRONG #'s I have that say "Un" or take what I like, what I believe will come in - the Ov?

Decisions, decisions . . .

Update, 2:45 PST:
I can't do it.
I want to buy the Over but the line is moving against me, up FOUR pts from the opener now, sitting at 213'.

If I was a conspiracy-type, or someone who doesn't understand how lines get made and moved, I would think the books are begging you to take the Under here.
But I ran a shop on the strip in Vegas. I know that's not how it works.
There's no such thing as a trap game.
To believe that Vegas is trying to get bettors to take the Under is to say that they (Vegas) are taking a position on the Over.
And Vegas bookmakers who take a position using house money quickly become ex-bookmakers.

I might kick myself later tonight, but I can't recommend a buy on tonight's Ov,
not when it would be buying a line that's 4 pts worse than we could/should have had.