NBA Season 3

[RBD]

Yeah, just like I said yesterday, kicking myself for not taking the Over.
But, I have a few disciplines in buying, and one is to not buy a bad line.
If you're going to win, part of it is buying smart.
Yesterday, smart would have been to buy the Over when it opened. But I thought it opened high and Under bettors might buy it down; instead it went up. And I would not buy 214 when I could have had 209' or 210 had I bought it when it opened.

I often include buying strategy in my posts, "buy now" or "wait to buy" with reasons given.
I KNEW I was going to be taking a hard look at the Over after the low shooting %'s in the previous game,
but I made a bad call on the opening #, chose to wait, and it moved against me so many pts that I laid off.
And cost myself a winner as it sailed Ov by double digits.
Just a bad call on my part, for waiting, and not buying despite the line move.

Shake it off, move on . . .

Today only one spot: OW has Phil.
This spot started out great, peaking at 1-6. Five wins later it's sitting at 6-6.
In the semi-finals it's 3-0; on Phil/Mia it's 1-0.

I feel like buying Mia tonight, but much of that feeling is to try and make up for the bad call yesterday and get back a unit I should have banked. And that's no reason to use a Fade on a 6-6 spot, that is on a 5-0 run, including 1-0 in this series.

I have no edges tonight, no multiple spots to choose from, so, no buys for me today.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Record: 1-2

Three spots today.
GP Ov has Mil/Bos, GS/Mem
BP Ov has GS/Mem

GP Ov is 6-13 post season, 3-3 in the semi-finals, 1-3 in Bos/Mil series, 0-0 GS/Mem
BP Ov is 12-18 post season, 3-3 semi-finals, 1-0 GS/Mem

Mil/Bos is the same situation as their last game, where I have strong #'s (6-13) post season that say Fade and take the Un, BUT avg #'s (3-3) in the post season, and strong Fade #'s (1-3) in this series.

I'm not seeing anything clearly. Muddled thoughts.
I've seen things more clearly on days I DIDN'T buy anything (such as using the Over on the last Mil/Bos game), it makes no sense to buy something on a day I don't think I have a clear view to a W.

Unless things change, it looks like no more RD spots to rely on so I likely won't have more than a couple buys for the remainder of the post season. But I'll keep posting in case I do have a buy, and in case anyone else is interested in the numbers I use to add to their own 'capping.

Pass today.

 

[RBD]

No buys, no recap.
Semi-finals record: 1-2

Three spots today.
GW has Dal (9-9)
BW has Mia (5-5)
HD spot has Dal (4-3 reg season, 0-0 post season; Dal 1-0)

GW and BW are .500, no help there; HD no better at 4-3.

I have spots to choose from, but nothing that's rates as a buy ON or Fade.

Pass today.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-2

Got a W with Boston in the RD spot in a post that was lost during the system upgrade. I know Tkj saw it and got it on the play, if anyone else did too, let me know. Thanks.

Today...
GP Ov and BP Ov each have both games on the schedule.
GP Ov is 8-15
BP Ov is 14-18.

I feel fortunate to get back the unit I was down in the semifinals with the Boston play, unfortunate to get what is likely to be the last RD spot of the season (15-4 reg season and now 5-1 in the postseason.) I doubt I'll get another one, but I didn't expect to get one in the last game, so who knows?

I have no feel either way for today's game so I'll probably take the day off and watch some USFL.

​​​​​​

 

[RBD]

Semi-finals are done, I finished 2-2.
No profit, but I was 0-1, and 1-2, so I feel good about being choosy in the last few games to get back the unit I was down and end at 2-2, especially because last year I finished the regular season with a very small profit, started the post season 7-2, and then gave it all back, ending the year in the red.
One of my goals this season was to avoid that from happening again, NBA is the only sport I don't have a profit in, in three years here at MJ's, and that is going to change this season.

Here's what I have going into the conference finals:
Regular season: 13-8
Post season round one: 9-4
Semis: 2-2
Total: 24-14, 63%.

I have about 9 units of house money to finance my play during the conference finals and the championship series.
I'll be very conservative the rest of the way, to guarantee I finish the season with a profit.

Today . . .
GP has Bos/Mia Ov (9-16)
BP has Bos/Mia Ov (15-19)

Losing records in both spots, a combined 24-35 (59% Fade). I like to use plays of at least 60% or better, so this game falls a little short.

When I have a match (both GP & BP call for the same result) the record is 8-10; slight edge to the Fade.

Digging deeper, I looked at the records of each of these teams in the post season.
GP Ov is 2-5 using Boston, 2-0 with Mia; 4-5 combined, no edge there.
BP Ov is 3-4 using Boston, 3-1 with Mia; 6-5 record there would point against a Fade.

The game opened at 206', common # today is 204 but 203' is easily available as the public continues to hammer Unders due to their record in the post season, and tighter D/sloppy offense being played in these seven game series as opposed to the regular season.

These two met twice in 2022. Bos won 122-92 in January, Mia won 106-98 in March. Both games were in Bos, both went Ov the current total for this game.

I like Mia, and Ov (if for no other reason than I'd rather be opposite the public than with them), but have no spots, no strong #'s that warrant a buy on either.
I'll pass.

 

[RBD]

Annie, thanks for stopping by.
I see it's your first post here. Nice! Thanks for joining in.
NBA is difficult for me, and I think one of the reasons is I didn't watch many games. I find that when I follow a sport more closely and watch a lot of games I do better at 'capping it. Watching games doesn't change the numbers I use, but it does help me have a better feel for the teams, and when to make a buy/when to lay off. It provides an additional factor to add to the situational spots I track and chart when making decisions.
I've done well in college baskets but the pros have been a loss in the two years I tried it.
I have it beat this year though. With 8.6 units banked, I'm playing on house dime. If I drop a few plays and get down to 5 units I'll end the season and bank what I have. I'd rather keep playing, but my goal for EVERY sport, EVERY season, is to bank a profit, ANY profit. If that means having the discipline to shut it it down then that's what I'll do.


No buys yesterday, no recap.
Tonight's game does not fit any of the scenarios I use, so no play, which sucks because my MLB 'capping came up empty, too.
I had a good feel for last night's game, Mia and Ov, had a little TV fun going on it, but no leans on anything tonight. I'll probably hunt for a prop bet just to have a rooting interest. Either that, or - turn into a Puckhead for a night?

 

[RBD]

I'm tracking - what? - something like a dozen different scenarios? But again no spots active today.
At this rate I won't have to be selective/conservative when making buys in the conf. finals and championship series because I won't have any decisions to make.
If this keeps up, I'm going to want to make a play that is not based on my numbers, which is not a good thing to do.

I did make one small play last night, as I mentioned yesterday.
I spent about an hour looking at player props, crunching #'s, and I decided on Curry Ov 37' pts, rebounds and assists.
At the end of the third quarter he had 21 pts, 12 rebounds, and 4 assists.
I'm sitting at 37 with the entire fourth quarter to go, only need 1 more pt, reb, or assist.
I'm gold, right?
WRONG!!!
As Steph starts to enter the game at the beginning of the fourth quarter, Kerr calls him back and says, "Last week, at Jack's place, RBD called me 'Boy Genius' and mocked me for coming up with a game plan to stop Ja Morant in the game Ja scored 47 pts in. Tonight, he needs just one more point, rebound or assist from you and he wins his bet. So, I'm benching you and screwing him over. I'LL show HIM who the Boy Genius is!"

And . . . I Iose by the hook.
I knew that with a big lead Kerr would yank some players, but all the starters - Green, Wiggins, Looney, and Thompson - got minutes in the fourth.
Well, all but Curry, that is.
And THAT'S why I don't make buys on plays that aren't from one of my spots.

 

[RBD]

Another thing I like about Jack's place: no one replied to my post from yesterday, saying, "Dude - you REALLY think Kerr reads your posts?"

Today, no spots active AGAIN.
If this keeps up I'm going to force a play.

 

[RBD]

Nothing fits again today.
Looks looks like the method I use to handicap is not going to kick out any plays for these particular matchups.
But I'm not going to sit out the whole series, I'll have to look at some other stuff to try and come up with a play.

Last night, I used the same prop I lost with two nights ago when Kerr sat Curry for the entire 4th quarter and I lost by a hook. Easy winner last night. Maybe I'll use a prop here although I usually don't play them for a regular size unit so not sure I'd recommend one.

Good luck with your play today...

 

[RBD]

Finally got a play but it's nothing worth buying.
BW has GS. This spot is 6-5. No edge.
GS in this spot is 0-0. No edge.
Another pass.

 

[RBD]

No spots last night so no post.
Records:
Post season round one: 9-4
Semis: 2-2
Total: 11-6

I have two spots today.
GW has GS (10-9)
BW has GS (7-5 post season, 1-0 in this series)

Slight edge with combined 17-14 record.
Normally I'd lay off a 55% spot and wait for one that's above 60% but there aren't many games left this season.
And I'm a little hesitant because I stayed off this spot on Sunday and it won, so I'm in the Johnny-Come-Lately situation that I hate.
Does Dal quit tonight? Does GS play like slackers knowing they're up 3-0?

I'm going to look at this throughout the day, will post if I buy it.

 

[RBD]

No buys yesterday, so no recap.

I looked at the game throughout the day but in the end I couldn't justify buying a spot that is just 55%.
I asked myself - would I buy a 55% spot in the regular season? The answer - no.
So to do so in the post season just because I'm running out of games would be forcing a bet. And if you want to finish a season with a profit do not force bets.
I had no idea if the Mavs would tank it, or GS would be slackers. So the only thing to do was pass on the game. And the 55% spot lost, so, good strategy.

Today, three spots:
GP has Ov
GW has Mia
OW has Mia

GP Ov is 10-16. Fade if anything. But, how has Bos/Mia done in this spot? 1-0 this series.
GP Ov in other postseason series, Bos is 3-5, Mia is 3-0

GW is 10-10 post season, 0-0 this series; no edge.
OW is 7-7, 0-0 this series, no edge

GP Ov overall is 10-16, so like I said, a Fade, BUT in this series (Bos/Mia) it's 1-0, and though Bos is 3-5 in this spot Mia is a perfect 3-0.
Conflicting numbers don't give me a strong lean either way. Given a choice between overall stats and stats specific to these teams I'd say Over is the way to go.

Like yesterday, I'll stop back and look at this throughout the day and see if I get a better feeling for a buy.
Pass for now.

UPDATE: I'm going to take the GP spot unless Butler is announced as out. It's readily available at 203' right now. I'm waiting on this until a little before game time to make sure Butler is in. If he's a late scratch, no buy.

Buy:
Bos/Mia Ov (wait; will buy or not based on my notes above re: Butler)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Conference Finals record: 0-1

I deserved that L.
I posted the other day that I'm going to get tired of not having any strong spots to play and I'll force a play.
Even though I also just posted the other day, "Do NOT force bets!"
I gave up my discipline, bet a game I didn't have strong numbers on (hell, I not only didn't have strong numbers on it, I had conflicting numbers which is usually an automatic "No buy" for me) and I lost $110.00
And I deserved it.

As for the game, anyone watch it?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that supposed to be professional teams playing?
It wasn't a B league or anything like that, was it?
And not just pros, but playoff teams, the supposed best of the best.
2 for 20 in three pointers to start the game? 2 for 20??!!
Low 30% range for shooting FG's first half?

That was NOT good defense we saw, it was uninterested, uninspired play from a bunch of guys, BOTH teams, who looked like they could not care less.
I stopped watching after the first quarter, only occasionally checking back in to see just how poorly they would finish up.

One play captured the lack of focus and energy level Miami brought to the game.
Butler (who at this point in the game had already missed three layups) gets a steal. It's a 2 on 1 break with him and Robinson.
Butler passes up court to Robinson. Robinson takes the pass and the lone defender closes on him.
Robinson passes it right back to a wide open undefended Butler only two feet from the basket, but . . . Butler isn't looking for the pass, and it bounces off him, blown opportunity, Boston gets the ball back.

I will not bet on Miami in the next game (which will be their last of the season) even if they fit one of my plays that's 65% or >.

No spots tonight, which usually pisses me off but I'm okay with it tonight. After last night, I've had enough of the NBA for a while.

 

[RBD]

Conference Finals record: 0-1

One spot today, GP Ov has Mia/Bos.
This spot is 10-17 in the postseason, 1-1 in the Bos/Mia series.

The Fade looks great at 10-17 (63%) but after Wednesday's debacle, I have no interest in investing any more money in this series.
I'll wait until the championship series to see if anything comes up there.

 

[RBD]

Nothing fits any of the systems I use today, no buys.
Here's where I'm at heading into the championship series.
Regular season: 13-8
Post season round one: 9-4
Semis: 2-2
Conference finals: 0-1
Total: 24-15, 61%, +$750

Enough units banked to ensure a profit for the season.

Couldn't get in on Sunday, here are the spots that were in play:

GP Ov (10-17)
BP Ov (16-19)
GW Mia (10-11)
OW Mia (6-8)

Both Overs were charted on the morning line, 2-5' so they both won by a hook.
Anyone who bought the Over at the closing # of 208 lost.
I did not play the total. I did buy Bos though, fading both the GW and Ow spots. I thought Mia could not duplicate their effort from game 6, and since I had two "W" spots with losing records I went with Boston. Couldn't get in though so I lost the opportunity to get back the unit I lost in the conference finals.

I have no feel for tonight's game, could easily make a case for ether side, and no feel at all for the total.
So, no spots active and no feel the game, I'll take the night off and likely use a prop bet or two for a rooting interest.

Good luck to all the Jackers with your play tonight and throughout this championship series.

 

[RBD]

Same as last game, nothing fits any of the dozen or so spots that I track and share here, and I have no feel for the side or total.

I'd like to go with Golden State to tie the series up but after watching that pitiful 4th quarter performance at home in game one, I'm not likely to touch them in game two.

Another night of prop action fun for me I guess.

Good luck with your play ...

 

[RBD]

No buys last game, so no recap.
Regular season: 13-8
Post season round one: 9-4
Semis: 2-2
Conference finals: 0-1
Championship series: 0-0
Total: 24-15, 61%, +$750


Here's something unexpected - I actually have a spot active for game three, first of the championship series.
And even more unexpected, it's from an Un play that rarely pops up.
It was a decent fade during the reg season at mediocre 11-17, but it's 3-0 post season.
I didn't attach a name or initials to it for reference purposes, I just called it, "the spot I tracked all year but just started posting in the postseason."
Bos is 1-0 in this spot (post #44) GS 0-0.

There's a reason I start new records in the post season for the various plays I use, and this spot is an example of why.
Things are different, things can change post season.
And the general rule I use when 'capping the post season is to give more weight to the post season numbers than reg season.
So, I'm setting aside the reg season 11-17 and leaning towards the 3-0 post season and an Un in this one.
Current # is 212'.
I have no feel for which way this line will move.
Game one opening number 211' went up 2' pts, and the game sailed Ov by 14 pts.
Game two opened 215, went down 2 pts. And stayed Un by 18 pts.

No buys yet.

 

[RBD]

The # is still 212' at most houses, but a I see a few at 212 now.
Time to buy it.

UPDATE: Updating stats/numbers this morning, and I see I have a second spot active.
OW has GS (6-9)
GS is 0-0 in this spot, but twice this post season Bos has been the team to play ON (Fading the OW spot) and they are 2-0.
Very strong chance I will add Bos late in the day. Will update in this post if I do.

Update number two: Not buying Boston.

Buys:
GS/Bos Un 212'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record in Championship series: 0-1

Well, I screwed up on that last choice.
For the second time this post season I let public opinion take me off one of my spots (OW Fade at 6-9) and I missed out on banking a unit.
Read too many write-ups touting Boston and so I stayed off them.

Only one spot fits tonight - OW has GS again (6-10 now, a 62% Fade.)
I'll usually buy a 62% or > spot, but this puts me in the position that I hate - buying a play after I stayed off it and it won.
I HATE being in this situation, hate having to figure out what the right call is, so I'm going to eliminate struggling over the decision. Here's what I'm going to do - I'm gonna go through my posts to look for the last time I was in this situation, and stayed off a spot for the second time. If it was the right move, I'm off tonight's game. If the spot won again, I'm buying in tonight.

Back in a bit after I review past posts.

Update: On 5/24 I stayed off GS in what I call the "Johnny-Come-Lately" situation, and . . . the play lost.
So staying off was the right thing to do.
And that's what I'll do tonight.


Update #2: Below

Buys:
GS/Bos Un 214'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record in Championship series: 1-1

Broke one of my general rules - "Do NOT bet games that aren't from one of your systems!" and got a W.
The Under didn't fit any of the spots I 'cap but I just felt I had a good read on the game to stay Un,
With three games already played in the series, I was looking at a possible two to four games left to be played and a good chance none of the remaining games would have any spots active either, so I decided to jump on the Un in game four in case I had no spots or good read on any of the final two to three games left to be played after Friday's game.

Got back the unit I dropped on the Under in the previous game.
I missed that one by 3' pts due to a high % of three point shots made in the first half, and a freak second quarter of 69 pts.
I didn't think that would happen again in game four so I rode the Under again and it cleared the mark by double digits.

One spot tonight - OW has Bos.
This spot is 7-10 in the post season, and 1-1 in this series; GS is 1-1 as the Fade team, Bos is 0-0.
It's a 58% Fade play at 7-10, and I won't use anything that's hitting < 60% at this point in the season.
Right now I'm at . . .
Regular season: 13-8
Post season round one: 9-4
Semis: 2-2
Conference finals: 0-1
Championship series: 1-1
Total: 25-16, 61%, +$740

Only three games left at most, two after tonight.
The goal for the post season was to NOT give back any of what I earned in the shortened regular season like I did last year.
Mission accomplished - the post season sits at 12-8.

I hope to get one more play before the season ends, to break the 1-1 tie I have in the championship series.
But no buys tonight.
Good luck with your play . . .